It has been a long time since i have posted here (wasn't connected often on Neverwinter during the last 3 months). Here is an update of the Zax Backlog/Waiting time graph.
I made a googlesheet with the graph and a cell where you can put your order date and get a prediction when you will get your Zen (calculated according to the current Zax trend seen between the 2 dates I have chosen as references)
(prediction parameters are locked and just there for info, you can't change them. I will change them if the visual trend on the graph starts to significantly drift away from the calculation, which may happen soon as the waiting time, after a relatively constant slope down, seems to enter in a plateau phase with the 2-3 last data points posted here)
6/30/2022-2/5/2023 7/4/2022-2/8/2023(4 listings) 7 months 4 days? i think itll flatten around that, unless line drops below 45 mil, its been at that for a few months, so around 7 months
New graph because the situation has change a lot : the Zax did suddenly enter a "plateau" phase since the beginning of february, at around 220 waiting days, which is making the linear prediction very inacurate as it is based on the past 3 months, and completely splits apart from the quadratic prediction.
I don't think the situation will stay like that, i'm suspecting a form of "holding Zen" since the preview for next mod is available.
If possible, can you also write down the current backlog when you give your orders/delivery dates ? (I don't really play anymore, barely 10 hours/month very irregularly since november, and I may miss that data if my playtime is reduced even more ^^' )
4998 order posted 2022-08-13, received 2023-03-25, so 224 days for me. Current backlog: 47.8M rounded up, so half a million increase in 4 days, going the wrong way fast.
2 x 5000 zen order, posted 2022-08-18, received 2023-03-31. 225 days.
“He raised his staff. There was a roll of thunder. The sunlight was blotted out from the eastern windows; the whole hall became suddenly dark as night. The fire faded to sullen embers. Only Gandalf could be seen, standing white and tall before the blackened hearth.” ― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
Tchefi wants posting date, received date and queue size when received. That way he can update his graphs.
And I like every post that does so :P (so I can keep track ^^)
Today, i'm not sure about the data range I shoud choose so the prediction lines would make sense. I will wait until may before posting the next graph so I can better evaluate if the situation is stabilized enough into a waiting time consistantly growing again, or if we were just in a "bump" linked to a retention of Zen during the month new module was in open preview and not released yet (similar to the more limited bump we had last october-november for the previous module).
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darthpotaterMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 1,259Arc User
We also had 300K AD for each player. Is not much but everyone got them so is a lot of AD in the economy.
8/22/2022 -> 4/11/2023 = 232 days - backlog: 49,240,595 8/23/2022 -> 4/11/2023 = 231 days 8/26/2022 -> 4/9/2023 = 226 days 8/26/2022 -> 4/8/2023 = 225 days
@fritz#8093 I had to look twice (especially because the american/micronesian date format gives me headaches). You have mixed up the dates, inverting the correlation between order and delivery, making it a LIFO instead of a FIFO, to check if i'm really paying attention at what players are posting here ? :P Sneaky sneaky >< (thanks anyway )
So... we definitely are back in a period when the waiting time is consistently increasing, but fortunately not as fast as we experienced in the past (since mod14). Lack of real AD sinks in the new module ? (i don't know i haven't logged in since march ^^'). I don't think the "we are sorry" 300k gift mentionned by @darthpotater is big enough to make such a lasting impact on the Zax. There is some hope though, as the backlog growth seems to gradually slow down.
I'm curious about how the situation will evolved with the incoming 10year jubilee
Comments
Here is an update of the Zax Backlog/Waiting time graph.
I made a googlesheet with the graph and a cell where you can put your order date and get a prediction when you will get your Zen (calculated according to the current Zax trend seen between the 2 dates I have chosen as references)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EFZTZKvJJeDmZOvdzdbnqUi1hQc7Lh6sjkC1QwkNp6g/edit?usp=sharing
(prediction parameters are locked and just there for info, you can't change them. I will change them if the visual trend on the graph starts to significantly drift away from the calculation, which may happen soon as the waiting time, after a relatively constant slope down, seems to enter in a plateau phase with the 2-3 last data points posted here)
7/4/2022-2/8/2023(4 listings)
7 months 4 days? i think itll flatten around that, unless line drops below 45 mil, its been at that for a few months, so around 7 months
order placed 13 July 2022
order filled 17 Feb 2023
219 days (7 months 4 days)
I don't think the situation will stay like that, i'm suspecting a form of "holding Zen" since the preview for next mod is available.
If possible, can you also write down the current backlog when you give your orders/delivery dates ? (I don't really play anymore, barely 10 hours/month very irregularly since november, and I may miss that data if my playtime is reduced even more ^^' )
Current zen backlog: 47,369,318
I round the backlog value at +/-0,1M for the data though
Current backlog: 47.8M rounded up, so half a million increase in 4 days, going the wrong way fast.
Guild Leader
Neverwinter SOLO Alliance
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
ZEN backlog today: 48353897
Today, i'm not sure about the data range I shoud choose so the prediction lines would make sense. I will wait until may before posting the next graph so I can better evaluate if the situation is stabilized enough into a waiting time consistantly growing again, or if we were just in a "bump" linked to a retention of Zen during the month new module was in open preview and not released yet (similar to the more limited bump we had last october-november for the previous module).
Caturday Survivor
Elemental Evil Survivor
Undermontain Survivor
Mod20 Combat rework Survivor
Mod22 Refinement rework Survivor
Current zen backlog: 49.13 mill ad
8/23/2022 -> 4/11/2023 = 231 days
8/26/2022 -> 4/9/2023 = 226 days
8/26/2022 -> 4/8/2023 = 225 days
You have mixed up the dates, inverting the correlation between order and delivery, making it a LIFO instead of a FIFO, to check if i'm really paying attention at what players are posting here ? :P
Sneaky sneaky ><
(thanks anyway
Current backlog 49,094,901
Guild Leader
Neverwinter SOLO Alliance
227 days
So... we definitely are back in a period when the waiting time is consistently increasing, but fortunately not as fast as we experienced in the past (since mod14).
Lack of real AD sinks in the new module ? (i don't know i haven't logged in since march ^^'). I don't think the "we are sorry" 300k gift mentionned by @darthpotater is big enough to make such a lasting impact on the Zax.
There is some hope though, as the backlog growth seems to gradually slow down.
I'm curious about how the situation will evolved with the incoming 10year jubilee
Caturday Survivor
Elemental Evil Survivor
Undermontain Survivor
Mod20 Combat rework Survivor
Mod22 Refinement rework Survivor