@handofhenson and @abanindra#4113 wow! That actually pushed the forecast back about a week. @gogu79 might see their Zen in early February or later this month.
BTW to all readers of Mr. Blargskull's thread here... I was feeding his fish today, got a call he is on his way back, and his plane lands tomorrow. I have mixed emotions about it. The quiet around the apartments has been very relaxing, maybe his flight will get delayed.
The problem is, if players spend money on ZEN, they rarely flip it to AD, and that is the only way the line moves. Once they've been around, they buy and list on AH, not through ZAX. They rarely post a good AD sink, such as eclipse lion, the 42 slot bag...not a good AD sink. I'm surprised the line went from 72 mil to 65 mil to be honest.
The problem is, if players spend money on ZEN, they rarely flip it to AD, and that is the only way the line moves. Once they've been around, they buy and list on AH, not through ZAX. They rarely post a good AD sink, such as eclipse lion, the 42 slot bag...not a good AD sink. I'm surprised the line went from 72 mil to 65 mil to be honest.
And mod 22 has made it even worse. Coals selling for 1.8M.. that is 2.4 times base price. Or a 1.2 times markup AFTER AH tax. And that is compared to base price without Zen discount.. getting 20% off coupons to buy the coals is not that hard.
Not many investments that give 120% earnings in just a few days. If you only could change AD back to Real Money
Currently the market it desperately screaming for coals to upgrade enchantments.
My next batch of Zen won't arrive until early March. /sigh
BTW to all readers of Mr. Blargskull's thread here... I was feeding his fish today, got a call he is on his way back, and his plane lands tomorrow. I have mixed emotions about it. The quiet around the apartments has been very relaxing, maybe his flight will get delayed.
Your flight cannot be delayed when you fly chartered flights. Better luck next time.
My next batch of Zen won't arrive until early March. /sigh
@mentinmindmaker but at least it will arrive. I mean GearBox won't get rid of the ZAX right away. It will probably be bad news for those players waiting since last July.
Just killing time...
0
plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,405Arc User
BTW to all readers of Mr. Blargskull's thread here... I was feeding his fish today, got a call he is on his way back, and his plane lands tomorrow. I have mixed emotions about it. The quiet around the apartments has been very relaxing, maybe his flight will get delayed.
Your flight cannot be delayed when you fly chartered flights. Better luck next time.
Of course, it can such as snow storm, the crew got covid, ......
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
BTW to all readers of Mr. Blargskull's thread here... I was feeding his fish today, got a call he is on his way back, and his plane lands tomorrow. I have mixed emotions about it. The quiet around the apartments has been very relaxing, maybe his flight will get delayed.
Your flight cannot be delayed when you fly chartered flights. Better luck next time.
Of course, it can such as snow storm, the crew got covid, ......
ok unlikely to be delayed. You know your on the economy budget charter when the wing is held on with duct tape and the pilot offers you some of his Jack Daniels.
Thank you, I see the predicted date was the 21st, I will leave it run as-is for now.
For information : last data from my ally is 04th april 21 => 03rd jan 22 11th april 21 => 15th jan 22 12th april 21 => 16th jan 22 15th april 21 => 19th jan 22 (timezone UTC+1. And I can't stand the mm-dd-yy format :P )
On my own predicting file for my ally : Note that i'm predicting 2 new important changes in the trend. One being a drop in the backlog, it means my current "projected waiting" curved line is likely to quite overestimate the waiting time once we will get to orders made passed what i called the "current trend window" (so roughly after orders made mid-july, my calculations start being quite inacurate for the prediction of waiting time).
I'm surprised the line went from 72 mil to 65 mil to be honest.
More likely the line moved because people retracted their ZAX listings to spend the AD. It wouldn´t even need to be the oldest listings. If people listed 3 months ago and can spend the AD on some special sale item instead (eclipse lion, Knox box etc.) with possibly more return now than some Zen purchase in perhaps a year (when Thanos had this game´s population halved), the line will move too.
I'm surprised the line went from 72 mil to 65 mil to be honest.
More likely the line moved because people retracted their ZAX listings to spend the AD. It wouldn´t even need to be the oldest listings. If people listed 3 months ago and can spend the AD on some special sale item instead (eclipse lion, Knox box etc.) with possibly more return now than some Zen purchase in perhaps a year (when Thanos had this game´s population halved), the line will move too.
From 72 to 65 million is 7 million zen, this would mean no less than 1,400 people with 5,000 in requests had to step out of the wait line. I assume the changes made to the game with module 22, are reflected in this pull out. Users need the AD to buy enchantments and upgrade them. If each user needs 1 million to get the green rank 1 enchantments, they must also need a lot more AD to upgrade them. I am guessing the general feeling of 3.75 million AD, sitting around for more than a year in the ZAX, is better spent now than later.
I wouldn't be surprised, should they change the whole economy in the near future across all games. It may not be a popular move, but this thread over the last year has shown the ZAX on Neverwinter is no longer working as intended. That is not to say the ZAX is broken, but obviously due to the economy, not as fast of a return as the other two games.
@hotfrostworm needs to reduce the +1.25 to something a bit lower. His crystal ball is off by 4 days now.
What are you people trying to do? My plan was, get 10 zen and wait for them to remove the cap, and I would be a billionaire. I am beginning to think some of you have motives to reverse this backlog and end all my hopes and dreams. How dare you.
Today the queue moved under 65k for the first time I have seen in a LONG time.
It is not just the requirements for new enchants, but all over Cryptic did introduce a few more regular AD sinks like skeleton keys, new items in AD shop etc. While small, the effect is constant.
It is nice to see that the ZAX queue is indeed falling.
0
plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,405Arc User
Anyone wants to upgrade anything needs Glyph of Potency from AD store.
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
I did another ratio change to the forecast. Since last September until the 20th has been 74 days, the wait time over that period has increased 66 days. This simple formula would suggest +1.1 wait time added per day. I dropped the wait to +1.1 for the remainder. This pushed back, the estimated 1 year wait time date for those who posted the first week in July. When we reach the 1 year wait time date, are you planning to throw a party?
I did another ratio change to the forecast. Since last September until the 20th has been 74 days, the wait time over that period has increased 66 days. This simple formula would suggest +1.1 wait time added per day. I dropped the wait to +1.1 for the remainder. This pushed back, the estimated 1 year wait time date for those who posted the first week in July. When we reach the 1 year wait time date, are you planning to throw a party?
If we had 66 days increase wait time over 74 days, would that not mean 0.9 days increase per day?
I did another ratio change to the forecast. Since last September until the 20th has been 74 days, the wait time over that period has increased 66 days. This simple formula would suggest +1.1 wait time added per day. I dropped the wait to +1.1 for the remainder. This pushed back, the estimated 1 year wait time date for those who posted the first week in July. When we reach the 1 year wait time date, are you planning to throw a party?
If we had 66 days increase wait time over 74 days, would that not mean 0.9 days increase per day?
You are correct I inverted the equation. All fixed now. Thanks for pointing that out.
I'm surprised the line went from 72 mil to 65 mil to be honest.
More likely the line moved because people retracted their ZAX listings to spend the AD. It wouldn´t even need to be the oldest listings. If people listed 3 months ago and can spend the AD on some special sale item instead (eclipse lion, Knox box etc.) with possibly more return now than some Zen purchase in perhaps a year (when Thanos had this game´s population halved), the line will move too.
The drop in the Zax in july 2021 correspond (more or less) to the period of time when orders made in january 2021 (following the bonding stones exchange huge AD income) have been fulfilled. This drop is very much likely due to players who were not able to refill fully their orders, and sort of a reajustment of the Zax into a more "normal" value (as if the bonding stone event never happened for the backlog). I can project lineary the trend value of the backlog previous to 21st january 2021, the projection would likely cross the real backlog line some 4-6 months after the end of the drop (so somewhere in the current plateau).
Exemple about the reason of the backlog drop in july-august : Player X made 7,8M AD thanks to his 3 r15 bonding stone on 21st january 2021 and he decided to invest that in 2x5k Zen orders in the Zax. Orders were then delivered on 3rd of july 2021. Instead of flipping preservation/coalescent wards, player X took (with a -20% coupon) one year of VIP. He didn't resplenished his Zax orders (or resplenished less than he had put in january, or even have left the game) => multiply this by quite a lot of players => drop of the backlog.
I will continue to give data in the next couple of month.
Here is my current order list, I will post when I will get my Zen...
5000 zen 13 may 2021
5000 zen 21 june 2021
5000 zen 9 july 2021
5000 zen 20 september 2021
5000 zen 20 september 2021
“He raised his staff. There was a roll of thunder. The sunlight was blotted out from the eastern windows; the whole hall became suddenly dark as night. The fire faded to sullen embers. Only Gandalf could be seen, standing white and tall before the blackened hearth.” ― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
Thanks guys, let's see how this new +0.9 ratio tracks for you.
@gildriador according to my current forecast, you should see the following;
5000 zen 13 may 2021 -on or near- 12 March 2022 5000 zen 21 june 2021 -on or near- 25 May 2022 5000 zen 9 july 2021 -on or near- 28 June 2022 Both of your 5000 zen 20 september 2021 -on or near- 14 November 2022
5000 zen 22 April 2021 -on or near- 31 January 2022 3000 zen 08 May 2021 -on or near- 2 March 2022 5000 zen 09 June 2021 -on or near- 2 May 2022 5000 zen 23 September 2021 -on or near- 20 November 2022 5000 zen 20 November 2021 -on or near- mid March 2023? (Just an estimate)
All of this data cannot predict unknown variables, but it does give you some idea when to expect your zen to arrive. The biggest unknown variable could be a massive wave of new players, once GearBox announces what they plan to change on these Cryptic games. On the other hand, should GearBox decide to simply remove the ZAX, you could end up with immediate zen or a refund of your AD back into the bank. When Atari sold Cryptic to PW in 2011 within one year the games went from subscription to the new format.
Surges of new players are not always what is best for any game in the long term. They need to make quality changes to hold the players interest. At the same time, they need to keep things close to the way they are to maintain the current players. People in general dislike change in lifestyle or entertainment. I know I hate it, when my wife talks about rearrangement of our furniture, but then I am the one who would be doing all the heavy lifting. But I don't watch much TV series because of their redundant nature either. Wendy like crime shows with supercops catching the bad guys, the networks have been doing those shows for decades. They are stale to me. It is a tricky balance to keep everyone entertained by the same act week after week.
Comments
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
10Apr21 06:23:49 GMT 1498 zen
bought
14Jan22 03:07:29 GMT 1498 zen
BTW to all readers of Mr. Blargskull's thread here... I was feeding his fish today, got a call he is on his way back, and his plane lands tomorrow. I have mixed emotions about it. The quiet around the apartments has been very relaxing, maybe his flight will get delayed.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Not many investments that give 120% earnings in just a few days. If you only could change AD back to Real Money
Currently the market it desperately screaming for coals to upgrade enchantments.
My next batch of Zen won't arrive until early March. /sigh
Just killing time...
Just killing time...
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
04th april 21 => 03rd jan 22
11th april 21 => 15th jan 22
12th april 21 => 16th jan 22
15th april 21 => 19th jan 22
(timezone UTC+1. And I can't stand the mm-dd-yy format :P )
On my own predicting file for my ally :
Note that i'm predicting 2 new important changes in the trend. One being a drop in the backlog, it means my current "projected waiting" curved line is likely to quite overestimate the waiting time once we will get to orders made passed what i called the "current trend window" (so roughly after orders made mid-july, my calculations start being quite inacurate for the prediction of waiting time).
Thanks for the information.
Just killing time...
I wouldn't be surprised, should they change the whole economy in the near future across all games. It may not be a popular move, but this thread over the last year has shown the ZAX on Neverwinter is no longer working as intended. That is not to say the ZAX is broken, but obviously due to the economy, not as fast of a return as the other two games.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
What are you people trying to do? My plan was, get 10 zen and wait for them to remove the cap, and I would be a billionaire. I am beginning to think some of you have motives to reverse this backlog and end all my hopes and dreams. How dare you.
Just killing time...
It is not just the requirements for new enchants, but all over Cryptic did introduce a few more regular AD sinks like skeleton keys, new items in AD shop etc. While small, the effect is constant.
It is nice to see that the ZAX queue is indeed falling.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
This drop is very much likely due to players who were not able to refill fully their orders, and sort of a reajustment of the Zax into a more "normal" value (as if the bonding stone event never happened for the backlog). I can project lineary the trend value of the backlog previous to 21st january 2021, the projection would likely cross the real backlog line some 4-6 months after the end of the drop (so somewhere in the current plateau).
Exemple about the reason of the backlog drop in july-august :
Player X made 7,8M AD thanks to his 3 r15 bonding stone on 21st january 2021 and he decided to invest that in 2x5k Zen orders in the Zax.
Orders were then delivered on 3rd of july 2021. Instead of flipping preservation/coalescent wards, player X took (with a -20% coupon) one year of VIP.
He didn't resplenished his Zax orders (or resplenished less than he had put in january, or even have left the game) => multiply this by quite a lot of players => drop of the backlog.
Here is my current order list, I will post when I will get my Zen...
5000 zen 13 may 2021
5000 zen 21 june 2021
5000 zen 9 july 2021
5000 zen 20 september 2021
5000 zen 20 september 2021
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
See you in March @gildriador !
Just killing time...
5000 zen 22 April 2021
3000 zen 08 May 2021
5000 zen 09 June 2021
5000 zen 23 September 2021
5000 zen 20 November 2021
@gildriador according to my current forecast, you should see the following;
5000 zen 13 may 2021 -on or near- 12 March 2022
5000 zen 21 june 2021 -on or near- 25 May 2022
5000 zen 9 july 2021 -on or near- 28 June 2022
Both of your
5000 zen 20 september 2021 -on or near- 14 November 2022
@krysoprase#0717
5000 zen 22 April 2021 -on or near- 31 January 2022
3000 zen 08 May 2021 -on or near- 2 March 2022
5000 zen 09 June 2021 -on or near- 2 May 2022
5000 zen 23 September 2021 -on or near- 20 November 2022
5000 zen 20 November 2021 -on or near- mid March 2023? (Just an estimate)
All of this data cannot predict unknown variables, but it does give you some idea when to expect your zen to arrive. The biggest unknown variable could be a massive wave of new players, once GearBox announces what they plan to change on these Cryptic games. On the other hand, should GearBox decide to simply remove the ZAX, you could end up with immediate zen or a refund of your AD back into the bank. When Atari sold Cryptic to PW in 2011 within one year the games went from subscription to the new format.
Surges of new players are not always what is best for any game in the long term. They need to make quality changes to hold the players interest. At the same time, they need to keep things close to the way they are to maintain the current players. People in general dislike change in lifestyle or entertainment. I know I hate it, when my wife talks about rearrangement of our furniture, but then I am the one who would be doing all the heavy lifting. But I don't watch much TV series because of their redundant nature either. Wendy like crime shows with supercops catching the bad guys, the networks have been doing those shows for decades. They are stale to me. It is a tricky balance to keep everyone entertained by the same act week after week.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet