Actually, it looks like there have been a lot of people dumping zen into the exchange lately. I just looked at Mr. Black's spreadsheet and he had to correct it twice for adjustments. @hotfrostworm does this mean you will be lowering the +1.3 down to +1.25 where I told you it should be?
@stark760 that might help a little. Capping the listings would work on the "real players". However this game has RMT (real money traders) make up dozens of accounts to sell AD and gold to players for 100% profit. They will even steal accounts to accomplish their goals. A real player can only use the AD, zen, and gold on the one account.
Don't sell your soul to the RMT, they are low life scammers.
That maybe true. But limiting people with multiple accounts to 1 listing on each, will help. They most likely have 5 listings on each account if they are doing that. Yes, they could open more, but each account would be getting them 1 listing instead of 5, which is where the bulk of the backlog lies.
The last inputs I have from my ally (it's been a while i haven't gave my own feedback here ^^) 21th march =>10th dec 24th march =>14th dec 25th march =>16th dec 26th march =>17th dec
So new graph (as the trend changed drastically)
Next inputs i will get (still pending) : 04th april 15th april 19th april
You guys know that if someone ever buy your AD with zen, they are making a huge loss?
There are other items which is worth more in AH. So they would rather just buy from store -> sell in AH for more AD.
Yes, yes we know This system always counted on people not caring for or understanding how the economy works. That's nothing new.
yeah I used to buy Zen for real life money to sell for AD to buy gems from the AH to refine artifacts etc.
I didnt even know about QM enchants, Dragon Hoard etc - sorry to go off topic there... my bad.
Back on topic what you're saying is it takes months to get Zen by buying it for AD. I kind of dont get the problem.
If you work in advance and put in 1million AD each month, every month, eventually you will get your Zen each month, every month? Or am I being very stupid or missing something. Sorry if I am
0
plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,405Arc User
If you work in advance and put in 1million AD each month, every month, eventually you will get your Zen each month, every month? Or am I being very stupid or missing something. Sorry if I am
No, that is exactly what I was doing. I get my 5000 Zen every 6 to 8 weeks. And, no, I don't really have "waiting for Zen" problem.
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
You may have only 5 listings on the zax for zen at any time. Each listing can be for up to 5000 zen max.
Yes, if it is in my 6 week interval, in theory, it will keep coming every 6 weeks after the initial waiting period. e.g. #1: Jan 1 #2: Feb 15 #3: April 1 #4: May 15 #5: July 1
If posting needs 7.5 months to complete:
#1 is completed by Aug 15. #6: Aug 15 #2 is completed by Oct 1 #7: Oct 1 #3 is completed by Nov 15 #8: Nov 15 .....
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
What I am focusing on is the amount of Zen sold each day(the Zen rate). If that is constant, the number of days waited should be a linear function of the queue length at time of submission.
However we can see of the graphs that the Zen rate is falling. Less and less Zen is being sold each day. Since the queue length seems to have stabilized around 66M Zen, the wait time should also stabilize unless the Zen rate is changing.
If the wait time keeps increasing, the Zen rate is still falling.
Why does this matter?
There are two reasons why the Zen rate is falling: 1: Less paying players in game so less people around to spend Zen 2: More and more people realize that buying Zen on the ZAX is inefficient, it is way better to buy and sell Zen items But you need a bit of experience to realize this, so more experienced people could be a sign of few new players joining game.
Either way, a falling Zen rate is bad news for Cryptic.
What I am focusing on is the amount of Zen sold each day(the Zen rate). If that is constant, the number of days waited should be a linear function of the queue length at time of submission.
However we can see of the graphs that the Zen rate is falling. Less and less Zen is being sold each day. Since the queue length seems to have stabilized around 66M Zen, the wait time should also stabilize unless the Zen rate is changing.
If the wait time keeps increasing, the Zen rate is still falling.
Why does this matter?
There are two reasons why the Zen rate is falling: 1: Less paying players in game so less people around to spend Zen 2: More and more people realize that buying Zen on the ZAX is inefficient, it is way better to buy and sell Zen items But you need a bit of experience to realize this, so more experienced people could be a sign of few new players joining game.
Either way, a falling Zen rate is bad news for Cryptic.
Ok right - it seems obvious to me that there are less players spending Zen, as there isnt much to buy with Zen.
of course there are less payers around in general, all MMOs go through phases, and with the recent and upcoming changes more and more will leave after a few months playing. The decision making process at Cryptic on events and changes is just bizarre.
Like they read a copy of The Dice man and decided to base their company future on RNG.
Would you spend real life money on a game where you can purchase an item, its Best in Slot, you pay good money, 2 month slater it gets nerfed or another BiS comes along? nah mate.
Well, they're seeing that less and less players are buying/spending ZEN, and that's why the "Winter ZEN Deals" have those additional extras for purchases, which is nice for new players, but longtime players probably remember when they got all the extras from the lower tiers when buying a higher tier ZEN pack, which is not happening with this sale and i doubt they're very happy with it...
And it's not like those additions are rocking ones socks of either: - Reward Reroll Tokens, with ViP i'm drowning in them - Companion/Mount Upgrade Tokens, i'd rather take Tarmalune Trade Bars instead - 60 Slot bag, even some of my alt. characters are carrying those bags now, since i got them as gifts or from the Knox Box - Artifact Choice Pack, the collection of artifacts in them is a joke - Cunning Mimic Companion, at $100 that should have been a legendary one - Mythic Frost Giantess Mount, re-skin of the Yeti mount i think, and considering how many mythic mounts are available in game from the AH, it's cute but not something that would motivate me dropping a whopping $150 on ZEN
Anyway, not really a surprise that players are spending their money somewhere else, and less and less ZEN is going into the ZAX these days, i'd also guess that unless they change a lot with Mod. 22 before they release it, the ZAX might come to a standstill a few weeks into the new Mod. next year.
A quick FYI, @blargskull is visiting his relatives, until mid January, I was told. Unless he plans to use his cellphone, we won't be hearing much jibes from the jolly joker. Meanwhile, I am testing Linux OS on preview over on this thread. I will pop in here to check for updates but for now the spreadsheet seems on course for the near future.
If anyone reading this is running Linux OS on Steam Proton, I would like to know the status over on my thread.
My next listing is on 4th of April. I will post again when I receive it.
Thank you, that is on the edge of being -1 day on my sheet, I will call it on course. If my mathematical guesswork is on track you should see the April zen around my birthday in first week of January.
Datapoint: Order submitted March 31st, received today December 27th.
Compared to previous datapoint above there is a 2 days delay. That probably is due to the Christmas weekend, I assume play activity has been somewhat reduced during that period.
Opening gifts and partying and hugging family and eating big dinners is hard work!
I made adjustments. Going back to October 21st, I see we have a new lower average (about +1.26 now). For April listings, I adjusted the rate to +1.25. This may not be great news but at least movement in the better direction.
Opening gifts and partying and hugging family and eating big dinners is hard work!
Oh you lucky bum! All I get to do here is glare at my wife as she sits in the corner shopping online. The highlight of my day is when or if she will make supper.
Thanks for the data, do you see the blue link in my signature? That will take you to a Google sheet. Unfortunately I didn't make it forecast beyond September 2021. The current "growth" is +1.25 days per day.
I just updated it with your data, if you look at this screenshot you can see the the following;
A. Formula simply adds 1.25 days to the wait time each and every day. B. This is where I made a 1 day adjustment for your data. C. Click here to see the months ahead.
On the next page, we can see why I stopped tracking beyond September. Unless the existing state of affairs changes, the wait time for those who posted back on June 13th are already waiting a full year.
Forecasting is guessing at trends, my work is not written in stone. Who knows what plans lie ahead with the new company taking over in February? All of the work done here may be a moot point should they decide to change formats. I seriously doubt they plan to revert the games back to subscription, but they could possibly decide to remove the ZAX and return the AD to the players. All we can do is speculate, for all we know, a meteor could wipe out all life on the planet just prior to the sale, and then everything will be pointless.
Well, here's another entry from STO for comparison... or something: 12/26/2021 posted 1/6/2022 received
Btw. is there any up-to-date road map for NWO at the moment, or any word if there will be one after the takeover is done? Because that might give us an idea what will happen to the ZAX as well...
Btw. is there any up-to-date road map for NWO at the moment, or any word if there will be one after the takeover is done? Because that might give us an idea what will happen to the ZAX as well...
I doubt the current Cryptic employees know any future plans for the studio or their games, other than they will be taking marching orders from GearBox handed down by the Swedish Embracer conglomerate. My advice to Cryptic is get ready to strap on your six guns partner and don't mess with Texas! They may decide to move the California offices to Texas because wages are cheaper there. Cutting cost is king.
I am not sure what changes will be made or when, there will be changes, and that could start with restaffing. I have been in the midst of such a move before, many employees start seeking the higher ground at this time. They start posting resumes to headhunters, getting an emergency exit plan together, and banking what money they can for possible unemployment. All the while, they will pretend (even to co-workers) they have no worries or concerns about the upcoming transition. Most will hope there are no massive changes planned for 2022.
Most of these transitions may include some or none of the following; 1. Restaffing Cryptic Studios with GearBox employees. 2. Set up a proxy server in Frisco, Texas. 3. Moving the servers near or to Frisco, Texas (Dallas / Fort Worth) and selling off the current Los Gatos, California building. 4. Moving current Cryptic Studios employees to Frisco, Texas.
Server farms in and around Austin, Texas are some of the lowest priced in the country at present. When you consider they do all the upkeep and maintenance for you, it saves you from paying an in house network administrator. The largest concern with server farms is security leaks. In my opinion, you don't want your source code to get out, don't use a server farm and keep it all in house.
After that dust settles, then they will decide what changes will be made to these games. I think the games will remain untouched for at least the first 6 months after February and then sometime in late summer or early fall you might get the road map.
If you work in advance and put in 1million AD each month, every month, eventually you will get your Zen each month, every month? Or am I being very stupid or missing something. Sorry if I am
No, that is exactly what I was doing. I get my 5000 Zen every 6 to 8 weeks. And, no, I don't really have "waiting for Zen" problem.
you do not wait nearly a year for zen to clear? your zen clears in less than 2 months? If that is the case something is seriously wrong with the system!
There are more than BIS players in this game RIP Real Tiamat, RIP Real Demogorgon RIP real Temple of the spider. Why remove non bis content to give to bis players ???? FORCING the majority of your player base to play 4 mod old dungeons and trial will have a bad result on player base Changes are getting so bad i would rather prefer no new changes (RIP ICE FISHING in winter fest)
0
plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,405Arc User
If you work in advance and put in 1million AD each month, every month, eventually you will get your Zen each month, every month? Or am I being very stupid or missing something. Sorry if I am
No, that is exactly what I was doing. I get my 5000 Zen every 6 to 8 weeks. And, no, I don't really have "waiting for Zen" problem.
you do not wait nearly a year for zen to clear? your zen clears in less than 2 months? If that is the case something is seriously wrong with the system!
You did not read my post in context (as what I replied to). I said I get my 5000 Zen every 6 to 8 weeks because I already lined them up. If you posted your Zen every 6 to 8 weeks, after the initial waiting period, you will get your Zen every 6 to 8 weeks. 8 weeks x 5 = 10 months.
If I have to spell it out: Jan post to get 5000 Zen. March post to get 5000 Zen May post to get 5000 Zen July post to 5000 Zen September post to get 5000 Zen. November got Jan 5000 Zen, post to get 5000 Zen Jan got March 5000 Zen, post to get 5000 Zen March got May 5000 Zen, post to get 5000 Zen ......
From November and so on, you get 5000 Zen every 2 months.
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
Thanks @than0z#0812 I am not going to adjust it but it seems like it is a few hours earlier than anticipated. I will wait and see if another posting is more than a day ahead of schedule.
@plasticbat , @mynaam , and @callumf#9018 yes you can and should keep posting AD to the ZAX, if you want Zen from other players. As I read this mynaam was saying there is a lack of balance in this "free to play" system?
The new guy coming here to play for free is going to be waiting a very long time to get his zen. While veteran players who are banking AD monthly must increase their frequency to every 2 or 3 weeks for the same wait. I am not attempting to discourage anyone to participate, the markets of all these games will be uncertain, until everyone knows for sure what the new owners plan for these games.
New players and old players alike will be more hesitant to spend money on any game, until they get some kind of plan. There is an old saying, plan for the worse and hope for the best.
If you work in advance and put in 1million AD each month, every month, eventually you will get your Zen each month, every month? Or am I being very stupid or missing something. Sorry if I am
No, that is exactly what I was doing. I get my 5000 Zen every 6 to 8 weeks. And, no, I don't really have "waiting for Zen" problem.
you do not wait nearly a year for zen to clear? your zen clears in less than 2 months? If that is the case something is seriously wrong with the system!
You did not read my post in context (as what I replied to). I said I get my 5000 Zen every 6 to 8 weeks because I already lined them up. If you posted your Zen every 6 to 8 weeks, after the initial waiting period, you will get your Zen every 6 to 8 weeks. 8 weeks x 5 = 10 months.
If I have to spell it out: Jan post to get 5000 Zen. March post to get 5000 Zen May post to get 5000 Zen July post to 5000 Zen September post to get 5000 Zen. November got Jan 5000 Zen, post to get 5000 Zen Jan got March 5000 Zen, post to get 5000 Zen March got May 5000 Zen, post to get 5000 Zen ......
From November and so on, you get 5000 Zen every 2 months.
Sorry but that means 6 weeks x 5 posts = 30 week gap for full rotation. The Zax is not 30 weeks(even if you say 26 weeks still not what i get)!!! if you get a full 5 post turnaround in just 30 weeks that is not what i am getting!
There are more than BIS players in this game RIP Real Tiamat, RIP Real Demogorgon RIP real Temple of the spider. Why remove non bis content to give to bis players ???? FORCING the majority of your player base to play 4 mod old dungeons and trial will have a bad result on player base Changes are getting so bad i would rather prefer no new changes (RIP ICE FISHING in winter fest)
0
plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,405Arc User
If you work in advance and put in 1million AD each month, every month, eventually you will get your Zen each month, every month? Or am I being very stupid or missing something. Sorry if I am
No, that is exactly what I was doing. I get my 5000 Zen every 6 to 8 weeks. And, no, I don't really have "waiting for Zen" problem.
you do not wait nearly a year for zen to clear? your zen clears in less than 2 months? If that is the case something is seriously wrong with the system!
You did not read my post in context (as what I replied to). I said I get my 5000 Zen every 6 to 8 weeks because I already lined them up. If you posted your Zen every 6 to 8 weeks, after the initial waiting period, you will get your Zen every 6 to 8 weeks. 8 weeks x 5 = 10 months.
If I have to spell it out: Jan post to get 5000 Zen. March post to get 5000 Zen May post to get 5000 Zen July post to 5000 Zen September post to get 5000 Zen. November got Jan 5000 Zen, post to get 5000 Zen Jan got March 5000 Zen, post to get 5000 Zen March got May 5000 Zen, post to get 5000 Zen ......
From November and so on, you get 5000 Zen every 2 months.
Sorry but that means 6 weeks x 5 posts = 30 week gap for full rotation. The Zax is not 30 weeks(even if you say 26 weeks still not what i get)!!! if you get a full 5 post turnaround in just 30 weeks that is not what i am getting!
I said 6 to 8 weeks. That is 30 weeks to 40 weeks for a full rotation. Yes, that was what I was getting.
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
Comments
Just killing time...
21th march =>10th dec
24th march =>14th dec
25th march =>16th dec
26th march =>17th dec
So new graph (as the trend changed drastically)
Next inputs i will get (still pending) :
04th april
15th april
19th april
I didnt even know about QM enchants, Dragon Hoard etc - sorry to go off topic there... my bad.
Back on topic what you're saying is it takes months to get Zen by buying it for AD. I kind of dont get the problem.
If you work in advance and put in 1million AD each month, every month, eventually you will get your Zen each month, every month? Or am I being very stupid or missing something. Sorry if I am
e.g.
#1: Jan 1
#2: Feb 15
#3: April 1
#4: May 15
#5: July 1
If posting needs 7.5 months to complete:
#1 is completed by Aug 15.
#6: Aug 15
#2 is completed by Oct 1
#7: Oct 1
#3 is completed by Nov 15
#8: Nov 15
.....
However we can see of the graphs that the Zen rate is falling. Less and less Zen is being sold each day. Since the queue length seems to have stabilized around 66M Zen, the wait time should also stabilize unless the Zen rate is changing.
If the wait time keeps increasing, the Zen rate is still falling.
Why does this matter?
There are two reasons why the Zen rate is falling:
1: Less paying players in game so less people around to spend Zen
2: More and more people realize that buying Zen on the ZAX is inefficient, it is way better to buy and sell Zen items
But you need a bit of experience to realize this, so more experienced people could be a sign of few new players joining game.
Either way, a falling Zen rate is bad news for Cryptic.
of course there are less payers around in general, all MMOs go through phases, and with the recent and upcoming changes more and more will leave after a few months playing. The decision making process at Cryptic on events and changes is just bizarre.
Like they read a copy of The Dice man and decided to base their company future on RNG.
Would you spend real life money on a game where you can purchase an item, its Best in Slot, you pay good money, 2 month slater it gets nerfed or another BiS comes along? nah mate.
And it's not like those additions are rocking ones socks of either:
- Reward Reroll Tokens, with ViP i'm drowning in them
- Companion/Mount Upgrade Tokens, i'd rather take Tarmalune Trade Bars instead
- 60 Slot bag, even some of my alt. characters are carrying those bags now, since i got them as gifts or from the Knox Box
- Artifact Choice Pack, the collection of artifacts in them is a joke
- Cunning Mimic Companion, at $100 that should have been a legendary one
- Mythic Frost Giantess Mount, re-skin of the Yeti mount i think, and considering how many mythic mounts are available in game from the AH, it's cute but not something that would motivate me dropping a whopping $150 on ZEN
Anyway, not really a surprise that players are spending their money somewhere else, and less and less ZEN is going into the ZAX these days, i'd also guess that unless they change a lot with Mod. 22 before they release it, the ZAX might come to a standstill a few weeks into the new Mod. next year.
If anyone reading this is running Linux OS on Steam Proton, I would like to know the status over on my thread.
Thanks!
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
My next listing is on 4th of April. I will post again when I receive it.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Order submitted March 31st, received today December 27th.
Compared to previous datapoint above there is a 2 days delay. That probably is due to the Christmas weekend, I assume play activity has been somewhat reduced during that period.
Opening gifts and partying and hugging family and eating big dinners is hard work!
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
April 4th - January 6th (9:11 am est)
Can someone kindly give me the link to expected (for a lack of a better term) wait times to make it simple? I haven't been following the thread.
I just updated it with your data, if you look at this screenshot you can see the the following;
A. Formula simply adds 1.25 days to the wait time each and every day.
B. This is where I made a 1 day adjustment for your data.
C. Click here to see the months ahead.
On the next page, we can see why I stopped tracking beyond September. Unless the existing state of affairs changes, the wait time for those who posted back on June 13th are already waiting a full year.
Forecasting is guessing at trends, my work is not written in stone. Who knows what plans lie ahead with the new company taking over in February? All of the work done here may be a moot point should they decide to change formats. I seriously doubt they plan to revert the games back to subscription, but they could possibly decide to remove the ZAX and return the AD to the players. All we can do is speculate, for all we know, a meteor could wipe out all life on the planet just prior to the sale, and then everything will be pointless.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Received on Jan 6, 2022, 10:51PM EST
12/26/2021 posted
1/6/2022 received
Btw. is there any up-to-date road map for NWO at the moment, or any word if there will be one after the takeover is done? Because that might give us an idea what will happen to the ZAX as well...
I am not sure what changes will be made or when, there will be changes, and that could start with restaffing. I have been in the midst of such a move before, many employees start seeking the higher ground at this time. They start posting resumes to headhunters, getting an emergency exit plan together, and banking what money they can for possible unemployment. All the while, they will pretend (even to co-workers) they have no worries or concerns about the upcoming transition. Most will hope there are no massive changes planned for 2022.
Most of these transitions may include some or none of the following;
1. Restaffing Cryptic Studios with GearBox employees.
2. Set up a proxy server in Frisco, Texas.
3. Moving the servers near or to Frisco, Texas (Dallas / Fort Worth) and selling off the current Los Gatos, California building.
4. Moving current Cryptic Studios employees to Frisco, Texas.
Server farms in and around Austin, Texas are some of the lowest priced in the country at present. When you consider they do all the upkeep and maintenance for you, it saves you from paying an in house network administrator. The largest concern with server farms is security leaks. In my opinion, you don't want your source code to get out, don't use a server farm and keep it all in house.
After that dust settles, then they will decide what changes will be made to these games. I think the games will remain untouched for at least the first 6 months after February and then sometime in late summer or early fall you might get the road map.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
RIP Real Tiamat, RIP Real Demogorgon RIP real Temple of the spider. Why remove non bis content to give to bis players ????
FORCING the majority of your player base to play 4 mod old dungeons and trial will have a bad result on player base
Changes are getting so bad i would rather prefer no new changes (RIP ICE FISHING in winter fest)
I said I get my 5000 Zen every 6 to 8 weeks because I already lined them up.
If you posted your Zen every 6 to 8 weeks, after the initial waiting period, you will get your Zen every 6 to 8 weeks.
8 weeks x 5 = 10 months.
If I have to spell it out:
Jan post to get 5000 Zen.
March post to get 5000 Zen
May post to get 5000 Zen
July post to 5000 Zen
September post to get 5000 Zen.
November got Jan 5000 Zen, post to get 5000 Zen
Jan got March 5000 Zen, post to get 5000 Zen
March got May 5000 Zen, post to get 5000 Zen
......
From November and so on, you get 5000 Zen every 2 months.
Posted on 7th of April 2021 -> Received on 11th of Jan '22. Exact time: 09:54 (Time Zone: UTC+3)
1 day earlier than the forecast or at the same time considering the forecast assumptions in terms of time zone.
Unfortunately my next posting will be on 4/30/2022 if forecast becomes the actual
Thanks, good tool.
@plasticbat , @mynaam , and @callumf#9018 yes you can and should keep posting AD to the ZAX, if you want Zen from other players. As I read this mynaam was saying there is a lack of balance in this "free to play" system?
The new guy coming here to play for free is going to be waiting a very long time to get his zen. While veteran players who are banking AD monthly must increase their frequency to every 2 or 3 weeks for the same wait. I am not attempting to discourage anyone to participate, the markets of all these games will be uncertain, until everyone knows for sure what the new owners plan for these games.
New players and old players alike will be more hesitant to spend money on any game, until they get some kind of plan. There is an old saying, plan for the worse and hope for the best.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
RIP Real Tiamat, RIP Real Demogorgon RIP real Temple of the spider. Why remove non bis content to give to bis players ????
FORCING the majority of your player base to play 4 mod old dungeons and trial will have a bad result on player base
Changes are getting so bad i would rather prefer no new changes (RIP ICE FISHING in winter fest)