Lockboxes are a waste of time

24

Comments

  • pwimagicgame
    pwimagicgame Member Posts: 53 Arc User
    edited September 2019
    reg1981 said:

    It's all about RNG, I've pulled 6 orange mounts so far from VIP keys and a few others from key sales.

    Part of the con. People will read this and think 'I can get that too'. There's always a few outliers allowed. Whether it is pure RNG is doubtful tho, certainly we don't know as Cryptic has not said. They must like you ;).
  • callumf#9018
    callumf#9018 Member Posts: 1,585 Arc User
    I agree with the OP.

    I am not hankering after a Legendary Mount, I know that's a really low % chance. I accept that.

    What I don't like is the huge amount of low value refining stones and enchants.

    Rank 8 or 9 enchants? Really? Payign for the equivalent of Undermountain Starting Out equipment?

    I doubt I will renew VIP when it ends this time round.

    I will have done 400 boxes - and in all that time got maybe three epic [purple] mounts and three orange stones, two orange profession tools and the rest has been mostly low value stuff.

    IF you are a mid level player, or starting out, the RP is really useful.

    When you get those DragonHoard enchants going though, the lockbox RP isn't worth it.
    ---------

    SO overall pretty good for newer players, not worth the money once you get to a certain point in game.
  • autumnwitch
    autumnwitch Member Posts: 1,018 Arc User
    greywynd said:

    I do not know whether boxes are RNG or not. Cryptic NEVER comment as it's not in their interest to do so.

    Anything that pulls from a table, like the lockboxes do, uses RNG.
    That may be true, but I am willing to bet it's not all RNG per say.

    The lock boxes at NW seem to have the same mechanisms as digital slot machines in that they are programmed to pay off more at certain time than others. We have all seen the times when it appears that no one is getting hardly anything (due to the splash screen announcements) and at other times it seems non-stop. I suspect that the lock boxes become "looser" at certain times of day and during certain events.

    People should also keep in mind that since lock boxes aren't legally gambling there is no obligation for them to give anything to anyone at any time other than something that is listed as being in the box in that someone in management could theoretically say, "turn off all lego drops during certain times" and there would be nothing technically or legally wrong with that and we would have no way of knowing that.

    Indeed, I have found that opening boxes during peek times in the US seems to net better results than at times when not many people are playing especially with the new boxes.
    Boudica's Sisters - A Guild For Introverts
  • autumnwitch
    autumnwitch Member Posts: 1,018 Arc User

    I agree with the OP.

    I am not hankering after a Legendary Mount, I know that's a really low % chance. I accept that.

    What I don't like is the huge amount of low value refining stones and enchants.

    Rank 8 or 9 enchants? Really? Payign for the equivalent of Undermountain Starting Out equipment?

    I doubt I will renew VIP when it ends this time round.

    I will have done 400 boxes - and in all that time got maybe three epic [purple] mounts and three orange stones, two orange profession tools and the rest has been mostly low value stuff.

    IF you are a mid level player, or starting out, the RP is really useful.

    When you get those DragonHoard enchants going though, the lockbox RP isn't worth it.
    ---------

    SO overall pretty good for newer players, not worth the money once you get to a certain point in game.

    You really hit on something Cryptic should pay attention to. There should be some form of lock boxes that benefit more advanced players than the newer, mid-level players even if the box costs AD to buy.
    Boudica's Sisters - A Guild For Introverts
  • plasticbat
    plasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 10,428 Arc User
    edited September 2019


    Indeed, I have found that opening boxes during peek times in the US seems to net better results than at times when not many people are playing especially with the new boxes.

    One theory has been going on for a long time. It is each instance has a RNG. Everyone is taking random number from that RNG in that instance. If the chance is 0.1%. That is it should be one hit per one thousand. More people giving RNG more chances to hit that number.
    e.g. in peak time, 100 people open 5000 within an hour, it should have 5 hit.
    in slow time, 10 people open only 500 within an hour, it should have 0.5 hit
    i.e. 5 hit per hours vs 0.5 hit per hour.
    The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will.
  • autumnwitch
    autumnwitch Member Posts: 1,018 Arc User
    edited September 2019


    Indeed, I have found that opening boxes during peek times in the US seems to net better results than at times when not many people are playing especially with the new boxes.

    One theory has been going on for a long time. It is each instance has a RNG. Everyone is taking random number from that RNG in that instance. If the chance is 0.1%. That is it should be one hit per one thousand. More people giving RNG more chances to hit that number.
    e.g. in peak time, 100 people open 5000 within an hour, it should have 5 hit.
    in slow time, 10 people open only 500 within an hour, it should have 0.5 hit
    i.e. 5 hit per hours vs 0.5 hit per hour.
    I think that is true to an extent but still stand by my statement that the boxes are looser at times than others. Another time they seem to tighten up is when keys are on sale which I suspect is by design again.

    TBF there is no way to prove any of this and is only anecdotal but I have seen enough patterns over the time that I have been playing that I am confident enough to say that some times they tinker with the RNG,
    Boudica's Sisters - A Guild For Introverts
  • dread4moor
    dread4moor Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,154 Arc User
    I never understand these threads.
    Thought it was common knowledge that lockboxes are nothing but gambling.
    VIP is for the perks, not the keys. But you can recoop some if not all of the monthly cost from the sellable trinkets.
    Apart from that, if you want a 1/1000 chance of a big score, I suggest taking your money to your nearest casino instead.
    At least there you might get a comped a free drink and a show for your money.
    JrUzbQw.jpg?1
    I am Took.
    "Full plate and packing steel" in NW since 2013.
  • autumnwitch
    autumnwitch Member Posts: 1,018 Arc User

    I never understand these threads.
    Thought it was common knowledge that lockboxes are nothing but gambling.
    VIP is for the perks, not the keys. But you can recoop some if not all of the monthly cost from the sellable trinkets.
    Apart from that, if you want a 1/1000 chance of a big score, I suggest taking your money to your nearest casino instead.
    At least there you might get a comped a free drink and a show for your money.

    I am lucky enough that I can afford some keys from time to time and with 20 toons I can use most of what I get in the boxes the other stuff I give away to guildies or sell.

    Over the years I got my share of lego mounts and lots of the good stuff.

    However, the biggest problem now is that the disparity of level 70 stuff compared to level 80 stuff makes many things in the older (and even some of the current) boxes completely irrelevant and thus worthless to almost anyone/everyone.

    For example, I know people now who just use trash gear and artifacts until they can get into UM and collect the gear there that is free and is better than most of 90+% of the other gear in the game. They don't upgrade/refine anything unless it's the new level 80 gear.

    It makes selling what used to be great stuff from the boxes difficult thus giving me less reason to open them.

    If the new boxes offered, for example, some of the newer level 80 arifacts as a possible drop, then they would appeal to a lot more people.

    Boudica's Sisters - A Guild For Introverts
  • aerhythia#3255
    aerhythia#3255 Member Posts: 173 Arc User

    I never understand these threads.
    Thought it was common knowledge that lockboxes are nothing but gambling.
    VIP is for the perks, not the keys. But you can recoop some if not all of the monthly cost from the sellable trinkets.
    Apart from that, if you want a 1/1000 chance of a big score, I suggest taking your money to your nearest casino instead.
    At least there you might get a comped a free drink and a show for your money.

    The top end is what it is. Always has been.

    1/100 chance (just a guess) and getting a brilliant diamond or enchanting stone is lucky legendary drop. OP felt like he "got nothing of any value". Even a casino would have problems with that.

    Rank 6 enchanting stones (UES) used to be worth more then a million AD so it's obviously intended to be a valuable reward but since the increased droprates and reroll token its value got lower and lower (which isn't inherently bad, it's actually good for players who need them for upgrades) and we didn't get new upgrade materials in recent modules with the exception of one of the new marks which is readily available from the wondrous bazaar.

    Depending on the lockbox the 2nd tier rewards definitely could be better.
  • autumnwitch
    autumnwitch Member Posts: 1,018 Arc User
    Oh the irony, I got a nice drop from my daily key today.
    Boudica's Sisters - A Guild For Introverts
  • mentinmindmaker
    mentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,367 Arc User
    Tests on Test server have shown probability of a Legendary mount drop is 0.15%,

    That means average 667 boxes opened per drop.

    However: That also means the probability of not getting a Legendary mount after 667 boxes is 37%. (But you could have gotten multiple drops)

    Personally I have been opening lockboxes more or less each day since VIP was introduced. I have not seen any Legendary mount drops.

    I guess I need to sacrifice more elfin virgins to the RNG. If only those were not so hard to find..



  • greywynd
    greywynd Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 6,452 Arc User

    -

    That may be true, but I am willing to bet it's not all RNG per say.

    It doesn't matter if it gets "adjusted" as you seem to assume. At the core it is RNG.
    I'm not looking for forgiveness, and I'm way past asking permission. Earth just lost her best defender, so we're here to fight. And if you want to stand in our way, we'll fight you too.
  • thefiresidecat
    thefiresidecat Member Posts: 4,486 Arc User

    greywynd said:

    I do not know whether boxes are RNG or not. Cryptic NEVER comment as it's not in their interest to do so.

    Anything that pulls from a table, like the lockboxes do, uses RNG.
    That may be true, but I am willing to bet it's not all RNG per say.

    The lock boxes at NW seem to have the same mechanisms as digital slot machines in that they are programmed to pay off more at certain time than others. We have all seen the times when it appears that no one is getting hardly anything (due to the splash screen announcements) and at other times it seems non-stop. I suspect that the lock boxes become "looser" at certain times of day and during certain events.

    People should also keep in mind that since lock boxes aren't legally gambling there is no obligation for them to give anything to anyone at any time other than something that is listed as being in the box in that someone in management could theoretically say, "turn off all lego drops during certain times" and there would be nothing technically or legally wrong with that and we would have no way of knowing that.

    Indeed, I have found that opening boxes during peek times in the US seems to net better results than at times when not many people are playing especially with the new boxes.
    those times when it seems non stop is because a lot of people are popping lockboxes. start of a new mod. key sale. etc
  • thefiresidecat
    thefiresidecat Member Posts: 4,486 Arc User
    they need an rp / enchantment sink. as it is they're just creating a never ending flow of rp that FAR exceeds need. and if you want to make rp free.. ok. but that counter acts the lockbox mentality. there is a point of dimishing returns where people say ok. I'm seeing such a negative return I'm just gonna put the ad into just buying the leg mount. or whatever they're after. the new lockboxes are a serious losing proposition. the older ones are better but not by a lot. the thinking has to be that there are a lot of dumb ppl out there... (and I guess it's not untrue but still.. )
  • greywynd
    greywynd Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 6,452 Arc User
    I mulch RP as fast as I get it and I still need more.
    I'm not looking for forgiveness, and I'm way past asking permission. Earth just lost her best defender, so we're here to fight. And if you want to stand in our way, we'll fight you too.
  • thefiresidecat
    thefiresidecat Member Posts: 4,486 Arc User
    edited September 2019
    greywynd said:

    I mulch RP as fast as I get it and I still need more.

    that's you as an individual. but, the market it saturated with it. they're using it as a main source for selling lockboxes. the price of a lockbox is FAR more expensive than the amount of rp they give you for it. imo the average lockbox result needs to be at least near if not equal to the value it costs on the open market. a ruby is 1200 sometimes less each now. other stuff less except for diamonds but they're only like 20k.. the value just isn't there. you can't say well maybe I'll get lucky and I can at least hav esome fun and not take too much of a hit. now it's honestly like throwing ad on the fire. let alone ACTUAL MONEY. honestly if you are spending actual cash on these at this point you have probably been subjected to a lobotomy at some point in your life by aliens. just sayin is all...
    Post edited by thefiresidecat on
  • wylonus
    wylonus Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 2,376 Arc User
    edited September 2019
    saturation of rp is so bad that it easy to make 150k-200k a day in undermountain, getting more RP is meaningless.
    what we want is finetuned lockboxes with no junks and less cluttered prizes. right now those lockboxes are bloated, and ramdom prizes doesnt seem changed, i get same rewards for 4-6 days on same stuffs,
    IT DOESNT Random enough, and RNG seem to repeat same stuffs over and over, some lucky ones get 2-3 legendaries in a row.
    it really got old extremely fast. RNG seem rigged.
  • autumnwitch
    autumnwitch Member Posts: 1,018 Arc User
    greywynd said:

    -

    That may be true, but I am willing to bet it's not all RNG per say.

    It doesn't matter if it gets "adjusted" as you seem to assume. At the core it is RNG.
    Ummm yes it does because if they do that it's ethically inexcusable. SHM
    Boudica's Sisters - A Guild For Introverts
  • sandukutupu
    sandukutupu Member Posts: 2,284 Arc User
    edited September 2019
    I have been preaching this for years and a lot of you don't understand. You refuse to understand, because you are hooked on a system that takes advantage of you. I don't care for VIP and I won't tell players to buy it or not to buy it. However once more I will attempt to educate you on how illogical it is to buy VIP just to open lock boxes or attempt to get rich. I tried VIP 3 times and I don't like it. Which means, it is not for me. I really want you to buy VIP, if you have your mind set to do so, but I also want to cleanse my mind by informing you.

    Many times, I read in chat one or more players telling the new guy to buy VIP. It is the same speech you hear about cigarettes, you are not cool if you don't buy VIP.

    To make AD from the VIP system you have to do the following;

    1. Save up 750,000 AD and convert it to 1,000 zen or buy 1,000 zen for $10 US dollars.
    a. If you convert AD to Zen, the wait time to collect your zen is roughly 1 day per the 1 million in the backlog, (e.g. 14 million backlog = 2 weeks).
    b. Charging Zen sometimes will take a few days for the bank to clear your purchase. People who do this earn my respect.
    2. VIP gives you a chest key every 24 hours, miss a day and you miss a key.
    a. This binds you to log into the game for the 30 days, even if you don't plan to play or go on vacation.
    b. VIP also allows for 15% bonus AD on quests that produce Rough AD, RAD caps at 100K per day.
    3. Open 30 lock boxes trying to get a mount or something to sell.
    a. Contents of some lock boxes are very poor. Soulmonger dropped "Adventure Packs" that sold for as little as 4,000 AD in the auction house. Adventure Packs drop rate was roughly 25 to 30% chance.
    b. Everything you sell must average 25.5K per lock box or you will not see a profit.
    c. Since everyone selling the same objects from the current lock box, this drive the prices down more and more. It is simple market saturation.
    I don't invest my AD into VIP or wait for the Zen. This saves me both time and AD. I use the tried and true method, buy low and sell high in the Auction House. I wait for all of you to drop your unwanted items you toss into the AH at low prices. Currently I have 4 guilds as bank vaults holding those items you "throw away" every time there is a new lock box. By the time 3 lock boxes go by, the items in the bank increase 3 to 5 times what I paid. I also look for cheap items, like the current "Teleport Scroll - Moonstone Mask" selling at 30 AD each. I sold all of mine about 3 months ago for 120 AD each. Now I have another vault pane with those scrolls yet again. Thank you!

    As you see, I need people buying VIP, even though I understand how illogical and frivolous it is to bother with it myself. If everyone stops using VIP and opening lock boxes, I wouldn't make near the amount of AD every month. As for "perks", I see VIP players standing in sight of the bank with their VIP bank open. I am not so apathetic to walk to the bank, mail, or exit. If you enjoy VIP, good for you!

    wb-cenders.gif
  • lantern22
    lantern22 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,110 Arc User
    edited September 2019

    I have been preaching this for years and a lot of you don't understand. You refuse to understand, because you are hooked on a system that takes advantage of you. I don't care for VIP and I won't tell players to buy it or not to buy it. However once more I will attempt to educate you on how illogical it is to buy VIP just to open lock boxes or attempt to get rich. I tried VIP 3 times and I don't like it. Which means, it is not for me. I really want you to buy VIP, if you have your mind set to do so, but I also want to cleanse my mind by informing you.

    Many times, I read in chat one or more players telling the new guy to buy VIP. It is the same speech you hear about cigarettes, you are not cool if you don't buy VIP.

    To make AD from the VIP system you have to do the following;

    1. Save up 750,000 AD and convert it to 1,000 zen or buy 1,000 zen for $10 US dollars.

    a. If you convert AD to Zen, the wait time to collect your zen is roughly 1 day per the 1 million in the backlog, (e.g. 14 million backlog = 2 weeks).
    b. Charging Zen sometimes will take a few days for the bank to clear your purchase. People who do this earn my respect.
    2. VIP gives you a chest key every 24 hours, miss a day and you miss a key.
    a. This binds you to log into the game for the 30 days, even if you don't plan to play or go on vacation.
    b. VIP also allows for 15% bonus AD on quests that produce Rough AD, RAD caps at 100K per day.
    3. Open 30 lock boxes trying to get a mount or something to sell.
    a. Contents of some lock boxes are very poor. Soulmonger dropped "Adventure Packs" that sold for as little as 4,000 AD in the auction house. Adventure Packs drop rate was roughly 25 to 30% chance.
    b. Everything you sell must average 25.5K per lock box or you will not see a profit.
    c. Since everyone selling the same objects from the current lock box, this drive the prices down more and more. It is simple market saturation.
    I don't invest my AD into VIP or wait for the Zen. This saves me both time and AD. I use the tried and true method, buy low and sell high in the Auction House. I wait for all of you to drop your unwanted items you toss into the AH at low prices. Currently I have 4 guilds as bank vaults holding those items you "throw away" every time there is a new lock box. By the time 3 lock boxes go by, the items in the bank increase 3 to 5 times what I paid. I also look for cheap items, like the current "Teleport Scroll - Moonstone Mask" selling at 30 AD each. I sold all of mine about 3 months ago for 120 AD each. Now I have another vault pane with those scrolls yet again. Thank you!

    As you see, I need people buying VIP, even though I understand how illogical and frivolous it is to bother with it myself. If everyone stops using VIP and opening lock boxes, I wouldn't make near the amount of AD every month. As for "perks", I see VIP players standing in sight of the bank with their VIP bank open. I am not so apathetic to walk to the bank, mail, or exit. If you enjoy VIP, good for you!



    I disagree. VIP is worth if just for the QoL stuff like the travel post, bank access, the bonus AD etc. The free lockbox key is not the key reason to get VIP, but it does help VIP pay for itself.

    Now buying bunches of keys by themselves . . . . that's another story.
  • greywynd
    greywynd Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 6,452 Arc User


    Ummm yes it does because if they do that it's ethically inexcusable. SHM

    So is assuming that they do that. YMMV.
    I'm not looking for forgiveness, and I'm way past asking permission. Earth just lost her best defender, so we're here to fight. And if you want to stand in our way, we'll fight you too.
  • unknowndrama
    unknowndrama Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 104 Arc User
    Lockboxes are Gambling!!!
    Gambling is taking part in a game during which you risk money, or something of monetary value, in order to win money or a prize. The outcome of the game is usually down to chance, so when gambling you might leave with less money than you started off with, and sometimes with nothing at all.
  • lukejones77
    lukejones77 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 282 Arc User
    edited September 2019
    You need to understand that opening lock boxes for legendary mounts has an extremely low chance.
    If you're down to collecting VIP keys as a way of finding in-game rewards, you absolutely should expect to be very disappointed in the game generally. People seem to be more commonly looking to lock boxes as a playing reward these days, as the only real rewards alternative is running MEs again, and again, and again, and...

    The lockboxes are a mechanism for putting extremely rare items into the game, and letting the lucky lotto winnners make a fortune off the rich in the AH.

    The most serious attempts by the community to determine drop rates (opening many, many thousands), are that the rates are under 0.1% (less than 1 in 1000, or perhaps, 1 every three years from VIP keys).
    That said, there appears to be evidence that drop rates are sometimes temporarily raised at the time of a new lock box release, to encourage the player base. It's hard to tell though - could just be because players believe that, and save huge numbers of keys for those occassions.
    Another popular thought is that the game temporarily raises your chances for a short while, significantly, if you haven't logged on for a few months - perhaps to enourage you back into the game. Seems to be true, from what I've observed from returning friends - at least for good purples.

    I've played the game since the start, VIP since it's start, and never got a legendary mount.
    Last 2 VIP batches I did were 140 keys for 1 purple and blue trash, then 70 keys for blue trash.

    Just like the lotto, all the advertising is to create in you an expectation far greater than the truth, when it comes to your chances. In the case of NW, large it's chat window alerts and and large font scrolling in the centre of the screen whenever it happens to somebody ( Could just as easily have been you!!!!)
    Just like the lotto, you can play for years, and a new player joins this week, with exactly the same chance as you, and ends up being the lucky one.
    When you see a zen keys special, typically for real money, telling you it's a wonderful opportunity, your heart tells you that they wouldn't do something like that unless you had a semi-decent chance. Yeah, well hearts looking for luck do that sort of thing. From their perspective, it's likely a key part (nyuck-nyuck) of making a free-to-play business model work, so they don't see it as unfair.

    It's okay, as long as you understand what your chances actually are, and how you should set your expectations. Unlike lotto, they refuse to publish the drop rates (all part of helping you think your chances are far greater than they actually are), and there's always going to be that lucky person who speaks up, perpetuating the myth that you'll be due some "fair luck", despite the odds.

    If you're the kind of person who feels that "your lucky lotto day" can't be too far away, because you've played so long, and it's only fair, then you don't understand the truth of low odds gambling, and you're likely to expect too much of lock box keys.
  • finalfantasyac7
    finalfantasyac7 Member Posts: 582 Arc User
    edited September 2019
    When you get a fail at 95% - 99% when crafting something in workshop, imagine how many fails you will get at 1% for a legendary item/mount/comp. Neverwinter RNG is like having a coin with fails on both top and bottom, and success on the side.


    Warlock- Lv80. || Rogue - Lv80. || Wizard - Lv80. || Paladin - Lv80. || Cleric - Lv80. || Ranger - Lv70. || Barbarian - Lv70. || Fighter - Lv70.

    ¨˜ˆ”°¹~•-.„¸ρℓαуιиg иєνєяωιитєя ѕιи¢є 2015¸„.-•~¹°”ˆ˜¨

  • greywynd
    greywynd Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 6,452 Arc User

    Lockboxes are Gambling!!!
    Gambling is taking part in a game during which you risk money, or something of monetary value, in order to win money or a prize. The outcome of the game is usually down to chance, so when gambling you might leave with less money than you started off with, and sometimes with nothing at all.

    Damn them for giving me a daily key with my VIP! And everyday it goes away from opening a box!
    I'm not looking for forgiveness, and I'm way past asking permission. Earth just lost her best defender, so we're here to fight. And if you want to stand in our way, we'll fight you too.
  • thefiresidecat
    thefiresidecat Member Posts: 4,486 Arc User
    edited September 2019

    I have been preaching this for years and a lot of you don't understand. You refuse to understand, because you are hooked on a system that takes advantage of you. I don't care for VIP and I won't tell players to buy it or not to buy it. However once more I will attempt to educate you on how illogical it is to buy VIP just to open lock boxes or attempt to get rich. I tried VIP 3 times and I don't like it. Which means, it is not for me. I really want you to buy VIP, if you have your mind set to do so, but I also want to cleanse my mind by informing you.

    Many times, I read in chat one or more players telling the new guy to buy VIP. It is the same speech you hear about cigarettes, you are not cool if you don't buy VIP.

    To make AD from the VIP system you have to do the following;

    1. Save up 750,000 AD and convert it to 1,000 zen or buy 1,000 zen for $10 US dollars.

    a. If you convert AD to Zen, the wait time to collect your zen is roughly 1 day per the 1 million in the backlog, (e.g. 14 million backlog = 2 weeks).
    b. Charging Zen sometimes will take a few days for the bank to clear your purchase. People who do this earn my respect.

    2,,,,,,,,
    we don't tell people to buy vip because of the key. the key is just nice and it does help outfit new players a little. the reason we tell people to get vip is for the travel post. the bank and the mail box.. and no injuries. I like the keys and I look forward to them even though they aren't going to make me rich but I stay for the travelpost ah fees and no injuries and honestly I don't think I could live iwthout the bank and mailbox either. now if they could just throw in the mimic at stronghold... but yeah. it's really indispensable and a great service imo.
  • thefiresidecat
    thefiresidecat Member Posts: 4,486 Arc User

    Lockboxes are Gambling!!!
    Gambling is taking part in a game during which you risk money, or something of monetary value, in order to win money or a prize. The outcome of the game is usually down to chance, so when gambling you might leave with less money than you started off with, and sometimes with nothing at all.

    yes, kinda sorta... it isn't gambling like going to casino. if that were the case the box would be empty most of the time. traditionally the boxes in games are rewarding enough that it's worth doing. that goes for all games. maybe it's not the jackpot every time but there is enough bread and butter.. so it's really not like going to the casino and it's a bad analogy imo.