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RNG again
minotaur2857
Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,141 Arc User
If you're going to gate really expensive content like mastercrafting behind lowish chance RNG, at least make sure it works. Our guild has had the following experience of the final mastercrafting task:
One guy took 24 attempts at 20%
I've had 2 crafts, one took 2 attempts, one I still haven't got to go after 7 failures at half a million a pop both at 35%.
Several others are complaining of it routinely taking 6-8 attempts at 30-35%.
You are odds on (57.75%) to be done after 2 attempts at 35%, but NOBODY in our guild is seeing that, we're 1out of maybe 10 being done in 2.
The earlier tasks I am seeing almost exactly what you'd expect, 8/25 it just seems to be the final task (which you have to do yourself) where the odds are a mile off and there's no way round it.
One guy took 24 attempts at 20%
I've had 2 crafts, one took 2 attempts, one I still haven't got to go after 7 failures at half a million a pop both at 35%.
Several others are complaining of it routinely taking 6-8 attempts at 30-35%.
You are odds on (57.75%) to be done after 2 attempts at 35%, but NOBODY in our guild is seeing that, we're 1out of maybe 10 being done in 2.
The earlier tasks I am seeing almost exactly what you'd expect, 8/25 it just seems to be the final task (which you have to do yourself) where the odds are a mile off and there's no way round it.
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While I like the idea of RNG to add a bit of suspense to the process of upgrading.
They do need to make sure the chance identified reliably gives that result.
You should not have 3x - 5x consecutive failures on skills nodes that give 75% chance... and if it does occur it shouldn't be happening so very often like it does now. When I see it happen quite frequently with skill nodes at 75% chance of success multiple times it clearly tells you something is wrong. Sure I'd expect maybe one failure every now and then but 75% of the time should also be successful on the first attempt which is not happening.
They need to FIX it so it reliably draws the chance identified, it should not be effected by where you are or other players, even then they need to consider a 33-50% upgrade chance across the board.
Sounds like a lot to some... yet a 50% upgrade improvement on something that today gives 5% would at most be improved to 7.5% or something at 1% would be increased to 1.5%. It save you a 'few' preservation wards at lower quality perhaps even a few coal wards but by no means break their sales on either.
devs should remove that RNG from crafting quests and tasks, it is unreasonable and unrealisic to have it in craftings.
You have to take into account the sheer magnitude of RNG attempts the server made this weekend. Likely 1000's per second. Just because a person doesn't see a 1-in-10 response, doesn't mean the RNG is broken.
@nitocris83 , any way to ask the Dev folks if they track (and would be willing to post) a brief chart of the RNG numeric results for the whole server? A curve would do.
I too would like them to investigate if the chances identified are actually occurring as often as indicated cause clearly in this example it seems something is broken. I know also many would probably welcome a 25-50% quality improvement chance across the board.
It sounds like a lot but really isn't much at all cause a 5% chance even if improved by 50% would only result in 7.5% chance or 10% upgraded to 15%, or 20 to 30%... Sure we still might see failure's more often but at least given all the time invested in upgrading gear which at least save a few wards and be slightly less frustrated when upgrading items. It also would not devalue preservation or coal wards either just perhaps save us a few of them.
Yes, you do.
Imagine that you and 999 other people all roll a d6. But everyones rolls are hidden from each other.
Now, *you* could luck out (in the statistical sense), and only get rolls that are outside your desired outcome, while someone else gets only wins (both scenarios are equally as 'lucky'). That doesn't mean the die is broken. It means *your observations* make it seem that you are not using a 'normal' die.
If they would pull the data from the 'rolls' and share it, if it resembled *anything* like a normal curve, I bet people would still stay things are broken, based on what *they* see.
Its the 'Doorbell in the Shower' effect, People only remember how many wards they 'lost' on failed attempts, but they kinda forget to count when the get a 5% in one or two shots.
EDIT: Remember, all of the crit/tohit/etc chances likely come from the same pool. If you ever use ACT, and get a skewed result, then you *might* have a point. But most people seem to get normal results.
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As for Mastercraft it's just sad you spent so much time leveling getting professionals, tools, resources but yet before you can even start the master craftsman ask for 500 adamantine rings and scales, plates, blades depending on the profession before you can even get started. Like 200 isn't enough to get you started?
I hear there are expanding Mastercraft in 11b but isn't viable for most today to even consider. I'd rather see far more expansion of regular professions with a more viable projects that can be run at 25 be more rare gear options to use as transmutes or even more options for personalized or engraved gear.
Just seems all we do is spend all our time leveling professions or building resources to get very little for the time investment.
You see, in my Boy Scout troop of only about 20 people, fully two of those people came from a family of 7 boys and no girls. If the odds of any given birth being a boy were really 51%, the odds of a family going through 7 births without a single girl are just a little over p=0.0089.
I defy you to explain how something with less than a 1% chance could ever happen, let alone twice in a sample size of 20. No, the only possible explanation is that the real odds of a male birth are actually much higher.
The odds must be at least 40% higher. A 72% chance of a male birth is about the probability at which you'd expect 2 boys out of a random 20 to come from a 7-0 boy-girl family.
And I saw this group of people with my own eyes, so it holds far more weight than any hypothetical groups of other kids that might, hypothetically, have a different composition. My concrete observations outweigh any amount of conjecture you might care to offer regarding “outliers” and “literally the entire rest of the world.”
I'm about to give up on this whole charade, I have completely lost faith in the RNG. On the final MC task with an alleged 35% chance I am 3/23 so far, each attempt costing an absolute fortune. I could have bought most of a legendary mount on what I've spent. Jewelcrafting took 9 attempts, Weaponsmithing 2, Platesmithing 4 and Alchemy still hasn't gone after 8 straight fails.
23 attempts should be enough to do all 8 crafts on average. 8 fails is one in 31 and I've had it happen 2/4.
By my calculations there's only a 1.8% chance of getting 3 or less successes in 23 tries at 35%.
Or just make the "chance" cumulative, so you never end up spending more than 10-15% more pres. wards than you "should".