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A basic course in probability theory for the Cryptic devs
mentinmindmaker
Member Posts: 1,492 Arc User
The best pre-Zariel weapons in mod 19 are hidden behind maps that drop with a fairly low probability and the maps themselves have a very low probability of dropping the weapons.
Weapons are very game critical and easily the most sought after items.
The problem with hiding them behind a low random chance is that the spread in the number of rolls will be very large, so some players will never get the weapons even after a very large number of rolls.
Without going into probability distributions and all the complex probability theory, lets just ask: After 1000 rolls, how big percentage of your customers will not get the weapons after 1000 rolls when the expected average is 500?
Expected average 500 means roughly 0.002 drop probability(yes, I know this probably is no entirely correct, but close enough)
The probability of NOT getting anything after 1000 drops is then (1-0.002)**1000 = 0.135. 13.5% of the customers will never get the drop after rolling twice as many rolls as the expected average.
The probability of NOT getting anything after 2000 drops is then (1-0.002)**1000 = 0.018. 1.8% of the customers will never get the drop after rolling four times as many rolls as the expected average, which basically means they will never get it. If this is a very critical item you can probably expect those customers to go away.
To counter this you can use two strategies:
* Either implement a cutoff so you get a guaranteed drop after for instance(in this example) 1000 rolls. This is what you did for preservation wards.
* Use high drop probabilities, but require many drops to get the desired items. That basically means using a currency drop. With a high droprate like 0.5 the deviation in the number of required rolls will be so small that it is negligable. ( 1-0.5)**10 = 0.001, ( 1-0.5)**20 = 0,000001, and this will even even more out as you require multiple such currency drops as nobody will go to needing 20 drops several times.
Weapons are very game critical and easily the most sought after items.
The problem with hiding them behind a low random chance is that the spread in the number of rolls will be very large, so some players will never get the weapons even after a very large number of rolls.
Without going into probability distributions and all the complex probability theory, lets just ask: After 1000 rolls, how big percentage of your customers will not get the weapons after 1000 rolls when the expected average is 500?
Expected average 500 means roughly 0.002 drop probability(yes, I know this probably is no entirely correct, but close enough)
The probability of NOT getting anything after 1000 drops is then (1-0.002)**1000 = 0.135. 13.5% of the customers will never get the drop after rolling twice as many rolls as the expected average.
The probability of NOT getting anything after 2000 drops is then (1-0.002)**1000 = 0.018. 1.8% of the customers will never get the drop after rolling four times as many rolls as the expected average, which basically means they will never get it. If this is a very critical item you can probably expect those customers to go away.
To counter this you can use two strategies:
* Either implement a cutoff so you get a guaranteed drop after for instance(in this example) 1000 rolls. This is what you did for preservation wards.
* Use high drop probabilities, but require many drops to get the desired items. That basically means using a currency drop. With a high droprate like 0.5 the deviation in the number of required rolls will be so small that it is negligable. ( 1-0.5)**10 = 0.001, ( 1-0.5)**20 = 0,000001, and this will even even more out as you require multiple such currency drops as nobody will go to needing 20 drops several times.
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Comments
We have tons of threads with same complaints.
1. Unloved Class changes. They told they will make healing more interesting? The reality is mental poverty. Instead of more tactical deepness like before with variety of input from many characters it's down to one easy question. Your healer is strong enough or not. And if you ask me: I am capable to heal by doing this: E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E. You call this interesting? I call it mental poverty.
2. RNG, RNG of RNG, Time-Gates, Wait here, wait there, the community itself as your biggest enemy stealing bosses. Tanks again at the end of the food chain.... DPS again in favor. And so low drop rate.
This all together sum up and I have to ask the question.
Who is your customer?
I mean do you expect we farm all day, have no job, no family, no other hobbies? I ask myself who is more sick. The customer that do all these things or the dev team that demand all that. Shame on you. This is really nasty.
I had many stolen bosses as tank. But what I will not forget is that I myself outdamage another poor tank. And I will not forget so fast this poor man.
We as a community should protest and stop this game until they fix it. I am serious.
You can get better weapons than alabaster by doing campaign, even if the maps weapons are a little better.
But you are right, RNG, RNG, RNG is hard to bear.
if you dont have full rank 15 enchants and bondings and runestones you have no chance of getting into tomm therfore 0 chance of getting lionheart
and with healer changes the groups that do run that content are not going to allow anyone new into their groups so once again 0 chance of upgrading or improving
so basicly the average player has absolutly les then 0 chance of upgrading to anything decent enough to run even the old high end dungeons
TOMM and Zariel requires hours of training before going into groups that run that content, you have the opportunity of getting campaign weapons that are better than alabaster/watcher/burnished if you want to improve, you can still do it until you are able to run TOMM then Zariel which are by the way, not for the average player.
tomm training runs do not happen in my alliance
try getting into a tomm run with 0 experiance i know the answer to that one been trying for long enough to such a level i have given up even trying
as for the comment about being carried i have never been carried on any run i have ever ran in any game if i feel i am not contributing enough i will leave and make room for someone who can
and i find that comment of yours pretty arrogent
starting to realise neverwinter has 2 kinds of players those who happily solo and the elitists who look down at the rest of us
i left ddo because was getting bored of the "if you dont have 200 past lives cant join my party"
came here expecting it to be better instead its 100 times worse
No one to organize? Dead leadership? Not even a couple more people to get things going? (I'm not sarcastic, I am asking)
There are alliances that do open training (open as in open to everyone), many canceled because there is just no demand. So why not reach out? If the alliance itself can't get it done, at least people should be able to point towards contacts that can help out. If even that is not possible, then perhaps you should consider that your alliance is too isolated / dead / etc..
Not everything is roses, but I saw that perhaps with the exception of one or two, in most large alliance people can find a solution and/or point towards a group.
When I imagine that I do bel from day one and never won the last rod (more than 100 open boxes = lost more than 500k ad) ... I have already made countless expeditions to get items to balance the status and I'm not even close of completing the collection ... It reminded me that I a player over 3 years old never completed the Underdark ring collection ... (rofl)
I think I will continue with my Burnished set until mod 20, since to do bel and expeditions she is sufficiently capable.