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A basic course in probability theory for the Cryptic devs

mentinmindmakermentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,395 Arc User
edited July 2020 in General Discussion (PC)
The best pre-Zariel weapons in mod 19 are hidden behind maps that drop with a fairly low probability and the maps themselves have a very low probability of dropping the weapons.

Weapons are very game critical and easily the most sought after items.

The problem with hiding them behind a low random chance is that the spread in the number of rolls will be very large, so some players will never get the weapons even after a very large number of rolls.

Without going into probability distributions and all the complex probability theory, lets just ask: After 1000 rolls, how big percentage of your customers will not get the weapons after 1000 rolls when the expected average is 500?

Expected average 500 means roughly 0.002 drop probability(yes, I know this probably is no entirely correct, but close enough)

The probability of NOT getting anything after 1000 drops is then (1-0.002)**1000 = 0.135. 13.5% of the customers will never get the drop after rolling twice as many rolls as the expected average.

The probability of NOT getting anything after 2000 drops is then (1-0.002)**1000 = 0.018. 1.8% of the customers will never get the drop after rolling four times as many rolls as the expected average, which basically means they will never get it. If this is a very critical item you can probably expect those customers to go away.

To counter this you can use two strategies:
* Either implement a cutoff so you get a guaranteed drop after for instance(in this example) 1000 rolls. This is what you did for preservation wards.
* Use high drop probabilities, but require many drops to get the desired items. That basically means using a currency drop. With a high droprate like 0.5 the deviation in the number of required rolls will be so small that it is negligable. ( 1-0.5)**10 = 0.001, ( 1-0.5)**20 = 0,000001, and this will even even more out as you require multiple such currency drops as nobody will go to needing 20 drops several times.

Comments

  • tassedethe13tassedethe13 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 806 Arc User
    Best pre-Zariel weapons are Lion heart weapons.

    You can get better weapons than alabaster by doing campaign, even if the maps weapons are a little better.
    But you are right, RNG, RNG, RNG is hard to bear.

  • vastano#2343 vastano Member Posts: 169 Arc User
    edited July 2020

    Best pre-Zariel weapons are Lion heart weapons.

    You can get better weapons than alabaster by doing campaign, even if the maps weapons are a little better.
    But you are right, RNG, RNG, RNG is hard to bear.

    unless you have lionheart or map weapons no chance of ever getting into zuriel runs
    if you dont have full rank 15 enchants and bondings and runestones you have no chance of getting into tomm therfore 0 chance of getting lionheart
    and with healer changes the groups that do run that content are not going to allow anyone new into their groups so once again 0 chance of upgrading or improving
    so basicly the average player has absolutly les then 0 chance of upgrading to anything decent enough to run even the old high end dungeons

  • tassedethe13tassedethe13 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 806 Arc User

    Best pre-Zariel weapons are Lion heart weapons.

    You can get better weapons than alabaster by doing campaign, even if the maps weapons are a little better.
    But you are right, RNG, RNG, RNG is hard to bear.

    unless you have lionheart or map weapons no chance of ever getting into zuriel runs
    if you dont have full rank 15 enchants and bondings and runestones you have no chance of getting into tomm therfore 0 chance of getting lionheart
    and with healer changes the groups that do run that content are not going to allow anyone new into their groups so once again 0 chance of upgrading or improving
    so basicly the average player has absolutly les then 0 chance of upgrading to anything decent enough to run even the old high end dungeons

    I don't see the problem, if you are not full rank 15 enchants and bondings and runestones as you said, you have 100 chances of improving.
    TOMM and Zariel requires hours of training before going into groups that run that content, you have the opportunity of getting campaign weapons that are better than alabaster/watcher/burnished if you want to improve, you can still do it until you are able to run TOMM then Zariel which are by the way, not for the average player.
  • fademist#5406 fademist Member Posts: 58 Arc User

    Best pre-Zariel weapons are Lion heart weapons.

    You can get better weapons than alabaster by doing campaign, even if the maps weapons are a little better.
    But you are right, RNG, RNG, RNG is hard to bear.

    unless you have lionheart or map weapons no chance of ever getting into zuriel runs
    if you dont have full rank 15 enchants and bondings and runestones you have no chance of getting into tomm therfore 0 chance of getting lionheart
    and with healer changes the groups that do run that content are not going to allow anyone new into their groups so once again 0 chance of upgrading or improving
    so basicly the average player has absolutly les then 0 chance of upgrading to anything decent enough to run even the old high end dungeons

    I don't see the problem, if you are not full rank 15 enchants and bondings and runestones as you said, you have 100 chances of improving.
    TOMM and Zariel requires hours of training before going into groups that run that content, you have the opportunity of getting campaign weapons that are better than alabaster/watcher/burnished if you want to improve, you can still do it until you are able to run TOMM then Zariel which are by the way, not for the average player.
    and u avoid to answer hes last line.....
  • micky1p00micky1p00 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 3,542 Arc User
    edited July 2020

    Best pre-Zariel weapons are Lion heart weapons.

    You can get better weapons than alabaster by doing campaign, even if the maps weapons are a little better.
    But you are right, RNG, RNG, RNG is hard to bear.

    unless you have lionheart or map weapons no chance of ever getting into zuriel runs
    if you dont have full rank 15 enchants and bondings and runestones you have no chance of getting into tomm therfore 0 chance of getting lionheart
    and with healer changes the groups that do run that content are not going to allow anyone new into their groups so once again 0 chance of upgrading or improving
    so basicly the average player has absolutly les then 0 chance of upgrading to anything decent enough to run even the old high end dungeons

    I don't see the problem, if you are not full rank 15 enchants and bondings and runestones as you said, you have 100 chances of improving.
    TOMM and Zariel requires hours of training before going into groups that run that content, you have the opportunity of getting campaign weapons that are better than alabaster/watcher/burnished if you want to improve, you can still do it until you are able to run TOMM then Zariel which are by the way, not for the average player.
    and u avoid to answer hes last line.....
    The "old high end dungeons" are before ToMM and Zariel, so how it's impossible to run them? IC is balanced around the same and can be done without issues with burnished and alabaster, and now you get better weapons from campaign. So what exactly the claim there in the "last line"?
  • vastano#2343 vastano Member Posts: 169 Arc User
    edited July 2020

    if you dont have full rank 15 enchants and bondings and runestones you have no chance of getting into tomm therfore 0 chance of getting lionheart
    and with healer changes the groups that do run that content are not going to allow anyone new into their groups so once again 0 chance of upgrading or improving

    Not true. Stop panicking and start working for your ToMM runs :) I have no issues getting into ToMM group but I admit, I have run a lot of training runs with my alliance first. And I have not all r15 on my toon. Companion is fully upgraded to r15 everything, legendary augment. I run alabaster/burnished sets still. Stats capped. Saving for tamed velociraptor. There are plenty of ways to get you to ToMM but if you only sit and wait to be invited and carried, well, you're gonna have tough time getting there.

    lucky you you managed to get tomm training runs
    tomm training runs do not happen in my alliance
    try getting into a tomm run with 0 experiance i know the answer to that one been trying for long enough to such a level i have given up even trying
    as for the comment about being carried i have never been carried on any run i have ever ran in any game if i feel i am not contributing enough i will leave and make room for someone who can
    and i find that comment of yours pretty arrogent
    starting to realise neverwinter has 2 kinds of players those who happily solo and the elitists who look down at the rest of us
    i left ddo because was getting bored of the "if you dont have 200 past lives cant join my party"
    came here expecting it to be better instead its 100 times worse

  • micky1p00micky1p00 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 3,542 Arc User
    edited July 2020

    if you dont have full rank 15 enchants and bondings and runestones you have no chance of getting into tomm therfore 0 chance of getting lionheart
    and with healer changes the groups that do run that content are not going to allow anyone new into their groups so once again 0 chance of upgrading or improving

    Not true. Stop panicking and start working for your ToMM runs :) I have no issues getting into ToMM group but I admit, I have run a lot of training runs with my alliance first. And I have not all r15 on my toon. Companion is fully upgraded to r15 everything, legendary augment. I run alabaster/burnished sets still. Stats capped. Saving for tamed velociraptor. There are plenty of ways to get you to ToMM but if you only sit and wait to be invited and carried, well, you're gonna have tough time getting there.

    lucky you you managed to get tomm training runs
    tomm training runs do not happen in my alliance
    try getting into a tomm run with 0 experiance i know the answer to that one been trying for long enough to such a level i have given up even trying
    as for the comment about being carried i have never been carried on any run i have ever ran in any game if i feel i am not contributing enough i will leave and make room for someone who can
    and i find that comment of yours pretty arrogent
    starting to realise neverwinter has 2 kinds of players those who happily solo and the elitists who look down at the rest of us
    i left ddo because was getting bored of the "if you dont have 200 past lives cant join my party"
    came here expecting it to be better instead its 100 times worse

    Why that happens? Not enough players who have ToMM stats? Is it a dead alliance?
    No one to organize? Dead leadership? Not even a couple more people to get things going? (I'm not sarcastic, I am asking)

    There are alliances that do open training (open as in open to everyone), many canceled because there is just no demand. So why not reach out? If the alliance itself can't get it done, at least people should be able to point towards contacts that can help out. If even that is not possible, then perhaps you should consider that your alliance is too isolated / dead / etc..

    Not everything is roses, but I saw that perhaps with the exception of one or two, in most large alliance people can find a solution and/or point towards a group.

  • aixis2000aixis2000 Member Posts: 211 Arc User
    edited July 2020
    ...made my peace with the map hunt and got finally the full set!
    Post edited by aixis2000 on
  • admiralwarlord#3792 admiralwarlord Member Posts: 546 Arc User
    As I am still trying to win the last rod de bel and some items from companions in the incredible expeditions, I think I will not even try to win these weapons.

    When I imagine that I do bel from day one and never won the last rod (more than 100 open boxes = lost more than 500k ad) ... I have already made countless expeditions to get items to balance the status and I'm not even close of completing the collection ... It reminded me that I a player over 3 years old never completed the Underdark ring collection ... (rofl)

    I think I will continue with my Burnished set until mod 20, since to do bel and expeditions she is sufficiently capable.
  • lantern22lantern22 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,111 Arc User
    To me it's just a cheap way to extend the content. It is extremely unappealing. Really, I'm pretty much waiting for something else half decent to come along. I have zero motivation to spend $$ on this, why would you support something that seems designed to frustrate the HAMSTER out of you???
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