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Genshin Impact, STO, and the pity system.
miirik
Member Posts: 483 Arc User
I been playing STO since the launch of Legacy of Romulus, so quite some years now. I got into the lockbox game very early on, but didn't win anything, so much so at some point I decided to start counting how many boxes I had opened before I got the grand prize... well it's been like 8-9 years, I have opened 915+ boxes and I still have yet to open a grand prize from any lockbox EVER. Over the years I would throw 20 bucks on a featured lockbox, or I would spend all my hard earned EC along with saved up zen from the dil exchange, still never got the grand prize ship, even when the grand prize ship was a T5. I remember once I spent 100 dollars on zen specifically for keys, used all my cash for another like 20-30, and still didn't win.
I decided to get into Genshin Impact a month ago because the characters looked really neat and I'm a sucker for cute girls. Eula was the current new grand prize character, I saved what I had, but didn't get her in time, but I'm not too worried for 2 reasons... She'll be ran again at some point (she sold well), and all those times I didn't get her counted towards what is called pity.
Pity in Genshin Impact is as follows: Each time you "wish" (equivalent of opening a lockbox), it counts towards a pity roll, and every 90 rolls you have without a grand prize, you get a guaranteed top tier character drop. If you're running on the feature character's "banner" (lockbox), once you hit 90, you get a coinflip, a 50/50 chance of getting either the featured character or one of another 5-star character from a small pool. If you lose that coinflip, your next pity after another 90 (a total of 180) is a 100% guaranteed drop of the feature character. If you're lucky and get them earlier, or you win the coinflip, it resets. The coinflip is actually the first 5-star drop you get before hard-pity so it can come earlier as well. Another feature, pity rolls over into the next featured character banner, so if you fail to get someone but you still have a hard pity-guarantee, it rolls over to the next banner... and the next if you decide to skip the next one!
So the next feature character was a re-run of Klee, whom I also wanted, so I saved again and even spent some money to help me along. After a couple more rolls I got my coinflip well before the 90-pity number... and got Jean instead, which sucks that I didn't Klee, but Jean I didn't mind having, and this also meant my next 5-star was guaranteed to be Klee, so now I had a set number of rolls to make at MAXIMUM before I would get Klee, that being 90. Another week and I put my rolls in and get her after 70-something rolls.
In a month I accomplish more with my rolls in Genshin Impact than I did in 8 or so years of opening lockboxes of Star Trek online. That GUARANTEE incentivized me to actually spend money. A good friend of mine irl told me he's not playing any more games with gacha/lockboxes involved unless it has a pity system in place, which I can completely understand after what has happened.
Fast forward to current day STO, I can't even buy boxes on the new hot lockboxes anymore, because I just know I won't win so why even try? Too many years of nothing. The last time I spent money in STO was the juggernaut Mudd pack, because it was a account unlock and GUARANTEE! I would still love to win just once but I have to give up and put my money to another game, where I have guarantees. Perhaps a totally different monetization model is needed now? Or at least some tweaks to it? I just know that if the pity system was in place, I'd probably buy some lockboxes. Or heck, maybe replace lockboxes with game passes?
I decided to get into Genshin Impact a month ago because the characters looked really neat and I'm a sucker for cute girls. Eula was the current new grand prize character, I saved what I had, but didn't get her in time, but I'm not too worried for 2 reasons... She'll be ran again at some point (she sold well), and all those times I didn't get her counted towards what is called pity.
Pity in Genshin Impact is as follows: Each time you "wish" (equivalent of opening a lockbox), it counts towards a pity roll, and every 90 rolls you have without a grand prize, you get a guaranteed top tier character drop. If you're running on the feature character's "banner" (lockbox), once you hit 90, you get a coinflip, a 50/50 chance of getting either the featured character or one of another 5-star character from a small pool. If you lose that coinflip, your next pity after another 90 (a total of 180) is a 100% guaranteed drop of the feature character. If you're lucky and get them earlier, or you win the coinflip, it resets. The coinflip is actually the first 5-star drop you get before hard-pity so it can come earlier as well. Another feature, pity rolls over into the next featured character banner, so if you fail to get someone but you still have a hard pity-guarantee, it rolls over to the next banner... and the next if you decide to skip the next one!
So the next feature character was a re-run of Klee, whom I also wanted, so I saved again and even spent some money to help me along. After a couple more rolls I got my coinflip well before the 90-pity number... and got Jean instead, which sucks that I didn't Klee, but Jean I didn't mind having, and this also meant my next 5-star was guaranteed to be Klee, so now I had a set number of rolls to make at MAXIMUM before I would get Klee, that being 90. Another week and I put my rolls in and get her after 70-something rolls.
In a month I accomplish more with my rolls in Genshin Impact than I did in 8 or so years of opening lockboxes of Star Trek online. That GUARANTEE incentivized me to actually spend money. A good friend of mine irl told me he's not playing any more games with gacha/lockboxes involved unless it has a pity system in place, which I can completely understand after what has happened.
Fast forward to current day STO, I can't even buy boxes on the new hot lockboxes anymore, because I just know I won't win so why even try? Too many years of nothing. The last time I spent money in STO was the juggernaut Mudd pack, because it was a account unlock and GUARANTEE! I would still love to win just once but I have to give up and put my money to another game, where I have guarantees. Perhaps a totally different monetization model is needed now? Or at least some tweaks to it? I just know that if the pity system was in place, I'd probably buy some lockboxes. Or heck, maybe replace lockboxes with game passes?
Post edited by baddmoonrizin on
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STO has worse rates than the worst gacha games I ever played, that's by design not some oopsie that they mean to fix some day. They want these ships to be extremely rare and everything else to be extremely cheap so that basically your only option is to keep going till you get the ship or it was all a loss.
It feeds on whales who enjoy gambling and it keeps the game going, ever since Andre took over the game has been moved more and more towards this approach. More time developing expensive items and time consuming projects and less....well everything else.
Until they have no other choice and the whale eventually get tired of it....but by the time that happens they may just cut their losses and end the game.
That's why people here would tell you NOT to open boxes. Gather up your keys, sell them on the exchange, get a ship with 100% success for less than the cost of 200 keys.
STO does have a second chance system: lobi crystals. From 915 boxes you would have gotten enough lobi for 4 lobi ships, possibly 5 if you waited for lobi sales.
They can still keep the crappy odds if they want, but having a fixed Pity drop set well below the drop rate odds is more likely to get more players into trying their luck over time. For example, 1:250 odds for a Lockbox ship but guaranteed to get it within 100 rolls thanks to Pity on the 100th is more likely to entice even casual players dropping some spare change on a Key or two than just the whales, as it's guaranteed that after 100 rolls (assuming worst-case luck), they'll get the high-value ship. It looks even better for Promo ships, as those are somewhere between 1:400 and 1:500 odds, but having a guaranteed chance after 150 attempts is very enticing.
This would also have a positive benefit in increasing availability of high-value ships in general, and slow, if not reverse, the inflation from supply/demand, much like how the Annorax and Tzen-Tar battlecruiser became cheaper with them being re-released as a limited-time Lobi ships.
On Cryptic's and PWE's end, they don't lose anything. In fact, they gain goodwill and increased odds of casual spenders buying some Zen for Keys or Packs, and on the game economy side, more reasons to sell Dil for Zen or alter the EC economy some.
Still takes awhile for them to implement any ships though; esp. Promo versions rather than Lockbox, and they still haven't updated it with old Event-exclusives like the Shotgun. A Pity system would at least serve to increase availability in lieu of a final one-time account unlock purchase, and prove to be extra beneficial for players with few alts (less likely to want/need a Mudd's Account-Wide Ship Unlock and can settle for a single-character ship unlock).
Unless people magically stop spending these amounts (and plenty of people do) the system doesn't change, it's working as intended.
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Or just sell keys.
I'll open boxes for Lobi and weapons and equipment or such...if I win a ship, then yay.
As much as folk say 'sell keys', without folk opening boxes, there would be no ships on the exchange, and considering the obscene prices on the EC market now, I'm glad I don't fork out £200 just to get ONE ship, whilst that person then takes that EC, buys keys and wins more ships. The 'sell keys' way is more of a rip-off than Cryptic's KDF Anniversary Bundle.
@miirik opened 915 boxes, got zero lock box ships. Gamble boxes are like that sometimes. The 1:250 odds are only a safe bet if you plan to open thousands of boxes.
If you want a lock box ship, selling keys is the only safe way to get it. I've gotten at least 10 ships that way (too lazy to go count them all).
Sure, the Legendary bundle is a much better deal (by far, 10 ships vs. 1) if you want those versions of those ships, but it's useless for getting the Tholian, Xindi, and Herald ships I own thanks to selling keys.
this. I opened 20 RnD boxes back when the temporal connie and D7 were in them got one of each.
And I've been opening lock boxes and I'm running a 7-8 year drought...you got lucky, some people like me have awful luck.
What KDF Anniversary bundle? There is no KDF Anniversary Bundle. We have the 11th Anniversary Bundle, which includes KDF ships, and we have the Legendary D7 pack. The 11th Anniversary Pack was never MEANT to be KDF only. While people have speculated on a pack the size of the previous year's pack but KDF exclusive, it didn't happen.
normal text = me speaking as fellow formite
colored text = mod mode
> And here's the thing people tend to forget. That 1:250 doesn't stack. EVERY box has that exact same chance no matter how many you open. Could open only one and get a ship, could open hundreds and not get a ship. Its all a dice roll.
Exactly. Everything else is just fooling yourself. It's good we know the approximated chance through tribble experiments so you can be sure it's very unlikely to get a ship. But with all gambling, in STO as well, you'll have people falling for the gambler's fallacy or simply don't understand how probability works and tell themselves and others 250 boxes are one guaranteed hit. It's not, and claiming chances increase in any way the more boxes you open is just playing around, creating the illusion of achievable prizes if you buy enough keys. Sure, I have 'better chances' if I try more often, but I still have to roll a one on a x-hundred sided dice (basically a ball xD)- every time. Won't happen.
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Whilst it is the 'safe way', it's expensive. I've been lucky, I won most of my ships from Lockboxes, and it's saved me the thousands I would have had to spend to buy them off the Exchange, however, I made more than enough EC from selling gear I got from those lockboxes. I would rather spend that £200 opening boxes and gaining loads of useful stuff to sell, than buy a ship off the exchange from selling keys. That way I gain way more stuff, than just ONE ship, and that £200 worth of keys probably gained me at least one Lobi ship. However, I'm also one who buys up keys gradually for a ship that may come along that I'll like. Moderation, moderation, moderation.
You summoned a Mod?
normal text = me speaking as fellow formite
colored text = mod mode
I thought that only worked while standing in front of a mirror
That's the point; the ridiculously low base drop rate skews the odds closer to needing 100 boxes minimum to get a guaranteed price, without further fluffing the boxes with junk prizes or redoing the odds to a standard 1:100 scale. It also works from the marketing perspective; you give players a horrible odds rate for public disclosure purposes, but then tell them you'll be nice enough that they never actually see those horrible odds, thanks to a Pity System that guarantees the grand prize after a set number of rolls.
And the Lobi cost estimate just further shows that it still would take more than 100 boxes to gain something remotely equal in value, which wouldn't be a big issue if Cryptic continued to parallel Lobi ships alongside Lockbox ships like they used to. Granted, with those numbers, a theoretical Pity System could be worsened a bit to 1:125 or even 1:150, still less than 1:250, but slightly fewer boxes than needed for a Lobi Ship at ~1:175. The outlook for a worst-case scenario would be: Spent on 125 Boxes, got the Grand Prize via Pity, then maybe spend a few more just to round out the Lobi for a second ship (if so desired) and maybe get lucky with the remaining 50 boxes. Preying on that "just a bit more" impulse.
It's the age-old debate on whether or not artificial scarcity brings in more revenue or not. In STO's case, artificial scarcity doesn't increase the number of whales paying or help the free/casual players they depend on for metrics to stay in-game. If it did, ship prices wouldn't be through the roof and basically locked to private trades, and prices would be reasonable enough that casual players can more realistically work up to buying the ships they want.
As well, the theoretical Pity System wouldn't stop Spenders from still making profit off the Silver and Bronze prizes, such as high-value weapons, Traits, Kits, or Consoles.
Of course, to better control the ship market, implementing a theoretical Pity System could be restricted to just Infinity Boxes and Promo Packs, leaving the hottest, newest stuff in the latest Lockbox to serve as a wild west for spenders to gamble on and make bank off of. Then a new Lockbox comes out and Cryptic adds the previous Lockbox' contents to the Infinity Box, making it more accessible to the casual spenders and players.
If focusing on whales, they would be plenty willing to pay for Account Unlocks even if it's pricier, so having Mudd's market Account Unlocks doesn't inherently interfere with the value of Phoenix Packs, which also comes with valuable Upgrade tokens at the most basic prize level. If anything, Mudd's covers the big spenders with multiple Alts, while Phoenix Pack/Shop covers the maority of single or dual character accounts who are more likely to spend on other things.
That said, if Lockboxes did allow for some Tiered price picking from the Lockbox's shop, it would be a major upgrade to having a bunch of junk. Though given their unbound nature, is likely to increase the costs on the Exchange, since there would be fewer junk items to sell that someone else might find value using or re-rolling. Then again, if combined with the theoretical Pity System, it could rebalance the market some; ships get cheaper, Lockbox gear other than ships see a rise in cost. Bonus if Lockboxes now come with an option to pick a "Lockbox Upgrade" token from the Lockbox shop similar to the Phoenix Upgrade, just better (but still worse than the Epic MkXV upgrades).
Aren't there some (Vaadwaur?) where you don't even get to choose between space and ground weapons? They should fix all weapon choice packs to be separate (beams) (cannons) (ground) groups.
I agree with fixing other prize groups too. Kit frames should let you pick the type, etc.
I'm not against a "pity system" but lobi is already there as the "you always get a ship eventually" second chance.
Also, there is no existing code to track lock box opening history so it would require a new development effort, and people who have opened 200+ boxes in the past would probably complain "where's my elephant?"
If it was... I'd probably be the King of the Pity System, because my luck stat on these things is probably a negative or close to it. I've only EVER won 3 ships, a Tarantula and 2 Crossfields.
Any other lockbox ships were ground out or gifted. Mostly ground out.
I have been slowly building up my Lobi reserves though. A key every few days off the exchange is slow going but... eh... its how it goes.
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colored text = mod mode
I'm surprised nobody brought this up but the odds for Promo Ships is about 1:100.
Since Infinity Lockoxes and Infinty Promo Packs were introduced I've gotten 7 Promo Ship Selection Packs and only 2 Lockbox Ship Selection Packs and have bought far fewer of the Promos.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
Good catch. Promo pack odds are better because the cost per pack is higher. (The exchange price on promo ships is higher than lock box because most of the pack contents are worthless crafting mats -- no traits, weapon packs, etc. that can be sold.)
The only ships with odds somewhere in the 1:400 - 1:1,000 range are the Phoenix epic tokens.
Sadly, there's no way to sell a Phoenix epic token or "epic token ship choice pack" to someone who needs it. I've been hanging on to a couple of epics since 2016 in the hope they'd allow that or add some new non-event ships since I already have all the ships that are offered.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
I didn't notice the Ferengi Phoenix vendor at Drozana today, is there an unannounced Phoenix event on?