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Odds - coming soon to loot boxes?
tigeraries
Member Posts: 3,492 Arc User
Apple has required all games that have loot boxes to disclose odds for all items on their platform (phones).
Think this trend will continue and become industry standard?
Think this trend will continue and become industry standard?
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If Steam were to suddenly adopt this type of system, they could require every game that has such a mechanic to disclose or be dumped from the service. Same could be said for XBox and PlayStation Network.
Do I see it happening? Not anytime soon. They'd lose too much business.
Losing faith in humanity, one person at a time.
As Steam is not required to play STO, as it's only a 'portal', any policy change at Steam will not affect the game at all. The only way of 'enforcing' it on STO is via a change in the law locally, or via Microsoft or Sony bringing in such.
The odds don't change unless there is direct input from Dev's side. It's a complete myth that the odds change depending on certain circumstances. Anyone with basic knowledge of RNG tables will tell you that.
I'll stick with the 100% chance of getting Lobi. Everything else is, frankly, gravy.
Then again... I also tend to get everything I want from lockboxes... via Exchange anyways as I can't afford to chance the lockboxes that much anyways.
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Pretty much this; the wiki has calculated odds for various prizes, and the odds have been consistent across lockboxes at various prize levels. I say there's not much to lose by officially disclosing the odds.
Agreed. In the Uk, they say that you have a 14 million to 1 chance of hitting the lottery, does this stop people from buying a ticket? Nope.
So if STO says that you have a thousand to 1 chance of getting a T6 ship, will that stop people from buying keys? Again, nope.
I'd say it was around my 80th lockbox that I saw my first T6 ship. Some people would say this is lucky, and it should be into the 150-250 range before getting one. When the Phoenix prize pack was first released, I really did think I won the lottery when I get an epic token on my sixth box.
If you buy keys to use on a box, which tells you that you could get anything from training manuals to a T6 ship, expect the training manuals.
The nice consolation prize is the Lobi. As Rattler said, these are guaranteed, and can get you some awesome stuff.
Key point would be that being somewhat updated, with a somewhat dynamic system replacing the static one. EG, you get a slightly, ever so slightly better chance at better stuff the longer you have a "bad" run.
Ideally, they'd add an option to designate the "wanted" item to weight the scale towards
> > @soullessraptor said:
> > leemwatson wrote: »
> >
> > soullessraptor wrote: »
> >
> > Honestly, adding the odds won't really change anything. In fact, if they added a live tracker for the odds, and allowed you to see the shift as you go, that could be interesting.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > The odds don't change unless there is direct input from Dev's side. It's a complete myth that the odds change depending on certain circumstances. Anyone with basic knowledge of RNG tables will tell you that.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Key point would be that being somewhat updated, with a somewhat dynamic system replacing the static one. EG, you get a slightly, ever so slightly better chance at better stuff the longer you have a "bad" run.
> > Ideally, they'd add an option to designate the "wanted" item to weight the scale towards
>
> No
Note that the change would be miniscule, something like a 1-2% change to the odds after 100 boxes or so
Only the thing is, the odds were actually disclosed to a point by a Dev to a point. 1% for a top prize ship a few years back. And no, I won't post the link. What players post with their pics is 'observed odds' which has no bearing on ACTUAL odds. The odds don't change, they are fixed, and only altered if so wished during a patch. The odds also will never be put on a complicated algorithm that detects how much Zen/Keys you have or spent as this IS against the law. Every theory on shifting odds is rubbish. Shifting odds is a myth.
What kind of evidence do you bring to the table to support this conclusion?
So... the odds of getting anything are locked at the same % for EVERY lockbox. Odds do NOT improve based on the number of lockboxes opened. For example, if it is a 1% chance, then it is a 1% chance for EACH lockbox as each one is an independant entity.
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l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
> He already said that there would be legal issues involved. Not only that... it is easier to just have a fixed set of odds across the board rather than a complicated system to try and mod the odds on a per player basis based on some set of variables.
>
> So... the odds of getting anything are locked at the same % for EVERY lockbox. Odds do NOT improve based on the number of lockboxes opened. For example, if it is a 1% chance, then it is a 1% chance for EACH lockbox as each one is an independant entity.
In theory, adding something to track the number of boxes since the last UR/Epic item wouldn't be too terribly difficult. Then use that number as a multiplier for the drop odds. Theoretically.
All the stupid conspiracy theories concerning secret manipulation of odds are just that, stupid conspiracy theories.
Yup indeed. There's yet to be presented any evidence of manipulated odds. Anicdotal evidence by way of 'observed' odds from opening boxes proves absolutely nothing. 'Observed odds' gives no indication of what odds are actually programmed, only the indication of RNG luck.
My response to all the conspiracy theories on RNG manipulation is as follows:
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#LegalizeAwoo
A normie goes "Oh, what's this?"
An otaku goes "UwU, what's this?"
A furry goes "OwO, what's this?"
A werewolf goes "Awoo, what's this?"
"It's nothing personal, I just don't feel like I've gotten to know a person until I've sniffed their crotch."
"We said 'no' to Mr. Curiosity. We're not home. Curiosity is not welcome, it is not to be invited in. Curiosity...is bad. It gets you in trouble, it gets you killed, and more importantly...it makes you poor!"
See, it wouldn't be secret. It would be a known factor. Not a conspiracy at all, just a suggestion.
It seems more likely to me that it's because they don't want to deal with cases were the published odds were wrong because of a software glitch or typo.
My character Tsin'xing
Published or not, it would not affect how I buy surprise boxes. I don't and won't, in the sam way I don't buy lottery tickets. The lobi is not valuable to me and my experience with the upgrade system has shown me just how stingy this game's rng is. Knowing I have a numerical chance in hell won't suddenly make booby prizes or lobi valuable (to me).