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no ship in Infinity R&D promo Pack
jim625
Member Posts: 907 Arc User
been trying to get the infinity ship prize pack from the r&d promo packs and not a single ship came this is really starting to P*** me of why is it that every one else is getting a ship from these promo packs but me I am so sick and tired of this >:(
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The whole thing is a game of chance. If you are indeed as unlucky as I have been the past years to get a ship try to play for one by other means and get it from the exchange. Depending how many boxes you have opened you could already have picked stuff of substantial worth as start. Sell it, sum up EC and simply buy. Works nicely for me and I have all the ships that I want. Only the Annorax is missing but with the current promo I will get it in no time.
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Trying to give you words (for the benefit of the OP):
Hardly anybody is getting ships from the R&D packs unless they spend a lot. When you look at relations that is. Considering the amount of players, that still means quite a few people are lucky.
If you had a one in a million chance in real life, you would still see thousands of fly ins with somebody winning.
The chance of the prize ship is what....0.01% or something. So you're looking at needing to open hundreds of the R&D packs to get one. At 300z each that is going to be veeeerrryyy expensive, hence why these things are rare and worth a lot.
Or......you could get lucky and get one on your first pack.
It's simply probability at work here:
Honestly, as has been said a bazillion million times on here and Reddit and in zone-chat...........BUY THE SHIP OFF THE EXCHANGE IF YOU WANT IT THAT BAD UNLESS YOU'RE WILLING TO BLOW SEVERAL HUNDRED £/$'s.
Jesus people, how is this not common knowledge among players now. It's far easier to save up EC and just buy outright than go down the lottery rabbit hole.
Their not selling on the exchange, their selling in trade channels AGAIN! And from the looks of it for more money than last time.
On another note, does anyone have any idea what a Na'kuhl Daemosh Science Vessel is going for on the exchange? That ship looks interesting to me and I would be willing to save up EC.
Yep, seen the Comic Book Guy wannabes not only demanding a billion and half EC, but KEYS in addition to the billion and a half.
If I ever win a any, I'm ether gonna selling em at 10% the the price the demand, or just give 'em away to friends.
I can tell you this much, since I was not informed on the drop %, as well as not on the forums very much, I just assumed it would be a lower % drop than the Lobi reward. But seeing all the popups showing that players were winning their ship token, as well as reading "When you purchase a Research and Development Pack from the C-Store and open it, you will receive either 10 Lobi Crystals or a Special Requisition Choice Pack" I can see how people can be mislead.
Not a complaint ... but I can empathize.
Join Date: Aug 14th 2008
Yeah true, but generally the first place to go look if you want a lockbox/lobi/promo ship should always be the exchange. That way you get an idea of the price and by extension the rarity.
And if you really, really want it then you have a number to aim for in EC's.
Then it's just your choice to gamble or save and buy.
Which again only works when they sell it there, otherwise its the trade channels and their frankly ridiculous prices.
Maybe that has something to do with it....
~Puts Reyan01 on a possible list~
Do you normally just constantly spew trollish remarks and talk down to everyone else because you're on that much of an ego trip or have you just been in a bad mood these past few weeks? Do you want a snickers? Seriously, chill out on the constant talking down to people.
TRIBBLE for Coldnapalm.
Personally, my T6 Connie is awesome, so here's my reply to your claim, especially of the ship being meh, us tos fanboys (fangirl here), and that we somehow suck at the game.
So went you people's oh it will go down becuase blah blah blah free market turns out to be a crock, its well its the consumers fault now.
How about just admitting its players being greedy, and the invisible hand is just a fairytale, instead of just shifting the goalposts.
Btw, Bailey, do you make those animations?
R&D packs have had odds of 1 in 100 for ships in the past, much better than lock boxes but of course the packs cost more.
Buying with EC is still the smarter move.
100 packs = 1- (.99 ^ 100) = 0.634 = 63.4% chance to get at least one ship. So one third of all players who open 100 packs will NOT get a ship.
150 packs = 1 - (.99 ^ 150) = 0.779 = 77.9% chance to get at least one ship. One fifth of all players who open 150 packs will NOT get a ship.
(Before someone brings up the Gambler's Fallacy, this is the dependent probability of getting NO ships, that is rolling a d100 die N times and never rolling a 1. It is valid before you open any of the N packs.)
The bottom line is what PWE decides to be the odds for prizes from opening boxes, the cost of boxes or keys, the desirability of items in said boxes, how often such boxes come around, the set costs of lobi items, the drop rates of lobi per box, the dil-zen exchange rates as influenced by Cryptic's shifting the markets towards zen or dilithium combined with their established average dilithium per unit of time per player, the refining cap which has been a steady 8K dil per character plus a little more from extra refining, how many players play the game by acquiring in game stuff and spending on stuff, player turnover and new accounts or characters seeking things, and established average Energy Credit drops per unit of time per player.
All these are set for players to make use of in the best ways they can, and aren't arbitrary but actually tie in directly to the costs of running the show and maintaining profit for PWE/Cryptic to stay in business, pay those royalties to the ST IP, and keep the game Free to Play in a way that doesn't exclude anyone from obtaining any item from just playing (even if it will can take months to acquire that one high valued item and a ton of time) with a few minor exceptions. This isn't to say I'm okay with all of this or not, I'm just saying how I believe it really is and why it is the way it is.
The rest of the market is mostly left to its own devices as a free market, monopolies notwithstanding. The combination of a large or majority of players being both EC and Dil poor combined with the number of people opening boxes/promos/etc and as a whole maintaining supply with those ~0.05-1% odds for the big prizes keeps prices hovering around IMO a fair rate that's even 'cheap' in comparison to the true costs and risks if one wants to single-handedly play such odds.
I can't speak for other "rabid" TOS players ... but I am pretty bad. No worries though, I stay out of any group content that I don't know how to play.
Join Date: Aug 14th 2008
Aka what private channels are becoming these days, what with them unregulated markets where seller controls the price. Here's the thing 2 months ago when this was a limited thing people weren't sure was going to happen again the price went up to around 100 keys, its doubled on the rerun. Despite all the so called economic experts on the forums saying a rerun would drop the price so far its going.
This is what happens when you keep it locked behind a market where the seller can decide whatever price they want as opposed to the hard capped exchange.
Yeep
The expected cost to the eeeevil sellers is 200 lock box keys at 250z per pack and needing 100 of them. Plus they are the ones taking all of the risk of a bad RNG run, and the ones committing the funds for buying hundreds of packs up front.
You want them to take the risks, commit the funds, AND sell at a discount? Because reasons?
(No, I don't sell them myself.)
Edit: since it's Christmas time you could always play Santa and spend $500 of your own money to maybe get 2 ships to sell. You could then sell them for 100 keys each, and you'd have a cool $250 worth of lock box keys! PROFIT!
Correction ... The 23rd century ships have never really hit the exchange. Not even last time as all sales were well beyond the EC cap of the exchange.
U.S.S. Maelstrom, NCC-71417 (Constitution III-class/flagship) --- Fleet Admiral Hauk' --|-- Dahar Master Hauk --- I.K.S. qu'In 'an bortaS (D7-class / flagship)