how many keys does it take to get a t6?

whistlerdavid

i know you guys cant really give me a number. however i was hoping for the people that have got a lock box T6 ship on average how many boxes did you open. i have a horrible feeling some of you guys will say you have opened over 200 and didn't get one lol

orangenee

I think it's 1/250 or in more horrifying terms, 0.4% chance.

So you're looking at a good few hundred dollary doos on average, you could open 500 and not get anything good. Or you could open one and get the star prize.

Gambling is gambling.

leemwatson

whistlerdavid wrote: »

i know you guys cant really give me a number. however i was hoping for the people that have got a lock box T6 ship on average how many boxes did you open. i have a horrible feeling some of you guys will say you have opened over 200 and didn't get one lol

Many time I've got a ship from less than 50. It is purely chance. Ignore those saying it's 1 in 250, because it's the wrong language to express it. It could be anywhere from 0.5 to 1% chance PER box, which is the same in other games that have lock-box style item. You could get ten keys and win 10 ships, or you could get a million and never win.

If you're desperate for a ship you could sell keys, but you're not the winner here, only the person you're buying off is. So use keys if you need to. You get Lobi and a random prize guaranteed each time. Use EC from keys, and you'll only get the ship, whilst the seller gets your EC to buy more keys and win more ships.

However, you wait whilst doing the Campaign, and be guaranteed that ship, provided it's not one released this year.

deadlock8118

orangenee#2931 wrote: »

Gambling is gambling.

Unless it's "surprise mechanics" or some other euphemism.

https://www.polygon.com/2019/6/21/18691760/ea-vp-loot-boxes-surprise-mechanics-ethical-enjoyable

davefenestrator

People have opened 1,000+ lock boxes on the real server, and tens of thousands on tribble. Based on that:

Lock box are 1 in 250, promo pack are 1 in 100.

That doesn't mean if you open 250 boxes that you are guaranteed a ship (aside from getting enough lobi to buy a lobi ship). Each key is a separate 1 in 250 dice roll, and probability has no memory.

When they are on sale the Muud's choice packs are priced OK compared to that since you are guaranteed the ships.

baudl

just give a number of how many keys you'd need to sell on exchange to get to what people who have the ship are selling for.

jonsills

Last I checked (which admittedly was like a month or two ago) keys were going for around 12 million on the Exchange, so somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 keys or so should get you the billion+ EC for that.

n0vastarone

(Flaming/trolling comments moderated out. - BMR)

evilmark444

n0vastarone wrote: »

(Flaming/trolling comments moderated out. - BMR)

Every Lockbox ship in circulation was obtained by SOMEONE who gambled for it, so obtaining one this way doesn't show Cryptic anything except that the ship is popular. The only way to actually "show" Cryptic that we don't like gambling would be for the majority of the playerbase to refuse to obtain these ships at all, as lack of demand would cause those who sell the ships to stop opening boxes. We would also probably need to all stop buying keys even to flip for EC, but since the economy essentially runs on keys these days I don't think that would ever happen.

Buying with keys/EC IS the only guaranteed way to get one of these ships though, and potentially the cheaper way depending on how your luck goes.

whistlerdavid

jonsills wrote: »

Last I checked (which admittedly was like a month or two ago) keys were going for around 12 million on the Exchange, so somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 keys or so should get you the billion+ EC for that.

on console they go for 8.3 remember that from years ago ? lol

jonsills

n0vastarone wrote: »

(Flaming/trolling comments moderated out. - BMR)

In order to sell keys on the Exchange, you have to buy keys with Zen. Cryptic sells keys, not boxes - the boxes drop like rain from almost every encounter out there. So a) you've just demonstrated to Cryptic that the strategy works, because you bought the keys; and b) the only reason for anyone to buy the keys on the Exchange is to open boxes. They have no other use at all.

So your proposal shows even more support for "gambling for their scummy boxes". When proposing a protest of any sort, you really should think it through.

fleetcaptain5

Someone should ask Cryptic. With a British accent.


How many keys does it take Cryptic? A thousand? Fifty thousand? A million?
How many keys does it take, Cryptic?!

qultuq

Kael said in the last livestream that although Neverwinter just released their gamble box numbers, STO will not (unless it seems that Neverwinter releasing the numbers doesn’t seem to have a detrimental impact on the opening of lockbox’s—they said they were analyzing the impact of Neverwinter’ DS9 announcement). That being said, there have been some very thorough studies by the community. This guy even thinks he’s figured out the pity mechanism:

https://www.reddit.com/r/sto/comments/uhfkom/sto_gambleboxes_a_guide_to_winning_the_jackpot/

davefenestrator

qultuq wrote: »

Kael said in the last livestream that although Neverwinter just released their gamble box numbers, STO will not (unless it seems that Neverwinter releasing the numbers doesn’t seem to have a detrimental impact on the opening of lockbox’s—they said they were analyzing the impact of Neverwinter’ DS9 announcement). That being said, there have been some very thorough studies by the community. This guy even thinks he’s figured out the pity mechanism:

https://www.reddit.com/r/sto/comments/uhfkom/sto_gambleboxes_a_guide_to_winning_the_jackpot/

Hmm, that post doesn't include enough details to convince me. If you start by assuming there are low and high drop rate then you can fit the data to match that assumption and get rates that might just be based on chance.

I'll stick with thinking Cryptic is not using secret per-account counters and is using the much easier to code fixed 1/250 (lock box) and 1/100 (promo pack).

bjorjlen

Ya know, while that was a very good question, and equally good replies all around, I can't help but be reminded of this old classic... 😁

https://youtu.be/O6rHeD5x2tI

Either that or the answer is 42, because as we all know, the answer to any question is always... 42... 😋

Peace...

lianthelia

whistlerdavid wrote: »

i know you guys cant really give me a number. however i was hoping for the people that have got a lock box T6 ship on average how many boxes did you open. i have a horrible feeling some of you guys will say you have opened over 200 and didn't get one lol

It's RNG...very bad RNG

Could get it in one key or not get it in five hundred keys, best just to buy keys and sell them on the exchange

phoenixc

Just going by anecdote and not any statistical analysis or anything, it kind of feels like the phoenix epic tokens work the same way.

Most often there is a long gap between epics, and the timing feels roughly the same from one to the next. If it is fixed odds then it should not do that since there is no memory in odds like that unless there is some kind of changes going on in the background (which is not always a bad thing btw). Of course, that could simply be coincidence.

krisxr400

To the OP question, 750 and not 1 ship. Thousands of phoenix boxes, 1 ship from the 5 years ago list, I picked the Nandi. Been opening boxes since idk 2011, 2012. You'd be better off going to vegas or a rigged carnival game than lock box odds. I also do not agree with the 1:250 or 1:100. There are some old threads from other forums where players would thoroughly document and calculate boxes opened and ships won (yrs before T6) and they were calculating odds of around .1% one tenth of a percent. from years of keeping track and opening boxes. Of course cryptic or whoever is gonna keep the odds secret, know why? If they released the odds then NO ONE would ever buy a key.

Indeed unregulated gambling. Sto is the first game I played with that type of system. And in 2011 or 2012 when I started, that's exactly the first thought that popped in my head, "this IS gambling, how can Gambling be allowed". Now its a plague on the whole industry. Who to blame? The players. That carrot they're dangling is so far away you need a telescope to even get a glimpse of it. But players throw billions of hard earned cash, every year, at something that isn't even real. And company CEOs laugh and cruise around in yachts, and big homes, and put their kids through college, because players are addicted and stupid. They just gotta have that carrot. And they're praying on human compulsion. They've got us all figured out. We're idiots.

bjorjlen

And that is why whenever I get a Key, I never, EVER, use it to open a LockBox. As many have said, I'd have better luck throwing my computer to China than getting any T6 ship from them. It's a scam, pure and simple, and while I may be old and dumb at times, I am sure as hell not stupid. Unfortunately, the only way for Cryptic to get a clue and "maybe" change things for the better is for everyone, and I mean everyone, to stop using Key's to open LockBoxes. Sadly though, that is never gonna happen as human nature what it is, we as a species tend to like "playing the odds", even when in truth it's the odds that are playing us (as is the case here and with Cryptic). Sad but true...

Peace...

baddmoonrizin

I'm going to have to ask folks to keep their accusations in check,.please, or we'll have to close this discussion if it gets out of hand. Thank you.

evilmark444

krisxr400 wrote: »

750 and not 1 ship. [...] I also do not agree with the 1:250 or 1:100.

750 is not a large enough sample size to come to any real conclusions, due to the nature of RNG it's always possible for someone to be unlucky like that with the odds players have calculated using larger sample sizes. That's why some games have bad luck protection, though I'm not convinced STO has such a system.

protoneous

https://reddit.com/r/sto/comments/uhfkom/sto_gambleboxes_a_guide_to_winning_the_jackpot/

davefenestrator

protoneous wrote: »

https://reddit.com/r/sto/comments/uhfkom/sto_gambleboxes_a_guide_to_winning_the_jackpot/

Posted above. Despite the pretty graphs it doesn't include enough information to show the author didn't find a pattern that is not really there.

Occam's Razor and human nature tells me it's more likely the Cryptic developers went with the much easier code of using flat odds and no per-user tracking. They needed to re-work the code in Neverwinter to add the pity system.

baddmoonrizin

keepcalmchiveon wrote: »

baddmoonrizin wrote: »

I'm going to have to ask folks to keep their accusations in check,.please, or we'll have to close this discussion if it gets out of hand. Thank you.

may i inquire as to what accusations you are referring to?

People obviously have some pretty strong opinions about lockboxes, so things can get heated if those passions aren't governed. While I will not debate the definition of "gambling," legal or otherwise, people's use of that term could be interpreted euphemistically. But when people start using language like "predatory" or "scam," that is disparaging and accusatory, and crosses the line into violating forum rules. By all means, debate the merits of lockboxes. As moderators, we will not shut these conversations down, but we do ask that people are careful in how they word their opinions, so as not to fall into the category of flaming/trolling. Thank you.

trekfangrrrl

baddmoonrizin wrote: »

keepcalmchiveon wrote: »

baddmoonrizin wrote: »

I'm going to have to ask folks to keep their accusations in check,.please, or we'll have to close this discussion if it gets out of hand. Thank you.

may i inquire as to what accusations you are referring to?

People obviously have some pretty strong opinions about lockboxes, so things can get heated if those passions aren't governed. While I will not debate the definition of "gambling," legal or otherwise, people's use of that term could be interpreted euphemistically. But when people start using language like "predatory" or "scam," that is disparaging and accusatory, and crosses the line into violating forum rules. By all means, debate the merits of lockboxes. As moderators, we will not shut these conversations down, but we do ask that people are careful in how they word their opinions, so as not to fall into the category of flaming/trolling. Thank you.

This is a completely serious/genuine question. Are you:

A: a normal player like everyone else who just volunteers to help moderate this forum or

B: a paid/professional HR person who only pretends to be a volunteer while really doing a full-time job of defending the company

If you are "A" then please try to at least talk like a real person and not some kind of robot programmed by Cryptic.

davefenestrator

@trekfangrrrl#6910 - mods are unpaid volunteers. They are normal people who post normally until they put on their robe and wizard hat to dispense moderation. It's natural for moderation-speak to be more precise and formal than normal-speak.

bjorjlen

davefenestrator wrote: »

@trekfangrrrl#6910 - mods are unpaid volunteers. They are normal people who post normally until they put on their robe and wizard hat to dispense moderation. It's natural for moderation-speak to be more precise and formal than normal-speak.

Exactly...

Peace...