0% Lockbox Luck

terminatrixxx

Greetings dear forum members,

i have opened well over 300 different lockboxes, during the time i am playing STO.
Yesterday, i bought 50 keys, grabbed the same amount of inifinty boxes and opened them right away all together.
Not that i need to win a ship i might not use but there should be at least a 5 or 10 % chance to get one.
It seems everyone around winning ships just not me - from 300 boxes of all kinds, no ship....nothing....but alot of fleetmark and reputation mark vouchers.
There is something clearly not right.

postagepaid

Chance of a ship is less than 1% each time you open a box and it doesn't accumulate.

Welcome to the world of gamble boxes.

At least you burnt the keys on the infinity boxes due to the amount of junk gets added to pad out the regular ones.

terminatrixxx

The thing is, a friend of me, has nearly used the same amount of keys....he got 4 ships in a row (all T5), standing next to me in the fleetbase. Somewhat strange lol

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terminatrixxx

valoreah wrote: »

terminatrixxx#8288 wrote: »

There is something clearly not right.

What is clearly not right is your thinking sorry to say. You could have easily bought keys, sold them on the exchange and purchased the ship (or whatever) you wanted with zero gambling involved and be happy instead of disappointed.

You should read my first post again. I dont need a ship, but for those people hoping for a win....its very disappointing.
I got nearly all c-store ships and money is not an option for me.
There are many people out there working 'hard' for EC, to buy keys via exchange. Just to find out, a 3-4 million key is wasted for a fleetmark voucher lol

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voyagerfan9751

So if I understand this correctly, you have opened 350 boxes and never gotten a ship (even in infinity boxes). That does seem like a rather large bad luck streak, but as others have said, the odds are less then 1% that you get the "Big prize". So yeah, I think the most odds are usually Duty officer recruitments or mark boosts.

If you ARE going to go the route of opening your own lockboxes I think most people sell the stuff they don't want on the exchange, so they can stretch their money out, but really those are your only options

angrytarg

What have you opened the boxes for, if I may ask? You say you don't need a ship or anything. Did you just spend 50 bucks on keys because?​​

stark2k

Here is a solid rule - only and I mean "ONLY" Open lock boxes if you plan on collecting lobi crystals - As everyone stated, less than 1% chance to win that T6 ship - and it seems that your odds are better the first few days of a lockbox being introduced into the game, but that may be more myth than reality.

Case in point if you are opening them simply for the sake of winning a ship, then you are completely going about it the wrong way. I know folks who open 1 or 2 boxes and instantly won a T6 ship, and I also know folks who spent up to $1,000.00 dollars U.S. and never won a ship.

They are gambling boxes by design - and according to the laws or rules - they aren't illegal simply because you at least win something - and yes I am referring to those gawdawful fleet credit, cpx exp, reputation credit, & R&D Booster vouchers.

terminatrixxx

azrael605 wrote: »

>

What are you talking about? There is no such thing as a fleet mark voucher. Also, as a person who has obtained 8 lockbox or lobi ships in the last year using EC obtained without the spending of a single dollar of real money you just can't be more wrong.

I mean those useless fleetmark thingys or xp boosters, something which is not worth the money for the key.
Thats what i am talking about, how someone feels if you put alot of effort into the lockboxes without spending real money....and not getting any decent reward....just nonsense no one need like 30x the same epic universal console. lol

angrytarg wrote: »

What have you opened the boxes for, if I may ask? You say you don't need a ship or anything. Did you just spend 50 bucks on keys because?​​

For the fun of it tbh, getting some lobis to buy some cool fashion stuff mainly.

terminatrixxx

stark2k wrote: »

Here is a solid rule - only and I mean "ONLY" Open lock boxes if you plan on collecting lobi crystals - As everyone stated, less than 1% chance to win that T6 ship - and it seems that your odds are better the first few days of a lockbox being introduced into the game, but that may be more myth than reality.

Case in point if you are opening them simply for the sake of winning a ship, then you are completely going about it the wrong way. I know folks who open 1 or 2 boxes and instantly won a T6 ship, and I also know folks who spent up to $1,000.00 dollars U.S. and never won a ship.

They are gambling boxes by design - and according to the laws or rules - they aren't illegal simply because you at least win something - and yes I am referring to those gawdawful fleet credit, cpx exp, reputation credit, & R&D Booster vouchers.

I came to the same conclusion, only for the lobis. We might know the same persons lol

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baudl

oh, it's that time of the month again?

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voyagerfan9751

ethereal#4956 wrote: »

terminatrixxx#8288 wrote: »

There is something clearly not right.

I would say that its you the one who is not right lol. If you bothered to get some info before buying keys like a madman, you would know that there is no guarantee of getting a ship, not even if you open 100000 boxes. Sorry if you wasted all that money (actually im not, whoever uses that money in STO is completely crazy), but its a common thing in STO.

I would think law of averages would take effect after 100000 boxes and you would probably win a ship or two. Actually I think someone did the statistical math before on how far you could go with literally not winning the ship before statistics dictates you your odds gradually approach certain. I don't remember what the number of boxes was, but it was definitely smaller then 100000.

darkbladejk

I've opened my fair share of boxes as well and it's based purely on dumb luck honestly. I would estimate I've opened close to 1,000 of the regular boxes like the Infinity box and others over the course of my STO career. If we add Phoenix Prize Packs to that calculation I would say that number jumps to around 5,000 boxes. In all of those boxes I've gotten less than 50 grand prize ships. I have however gotten my fair share of secondary prize ships. It sucks when you don't get the prize ship you're after but that's the nature of RNG, nothing is guaranteed. Personally I never open boxes purely to get a ship but for the lobi or perhaps some other prize like a weapon pack or something. If I end up dropping the ship then that's great but definitely not something I count on dropping. If you're looking for a ship then you'll get it quicker by buying keys and selling the keys themselves on the exchange to get your ship.

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meimeitoo

terminatrixxx#8288 wrote: »

Greetings dear forum members,

i have opened well over 300 different lockboxes, during the time i am playing STO.
Yesterday, i bought 50 keys, grabbed the same amount of inifinty boxes and opened them right away all together.
Not that i need to win a ship i might not use but there should be at least a 5 or 10 % chance to get one.
It seems everyone around winning ships just not me - from 300 boxes of all kinds, no ship....nothing....but alot of fleetmark and reputation mark vouchers.
There is something clearly not right.

You have entered the 'SOL System' :P

Seriously, though, you fell for well-known Cryptic-trick: flashing winners in zone chat so frequently, you're getting all giddy, thinking you're on the verge of winning yourself. In reality, the odds of winning the Grand Prize ship are still dismal: it's just your warped sense of statistics that got the better of you. But, yeah, if say, 100, boxes are opened per second, each with a 0.2% chance of getting the Prize ship, then (on average) you'd see a winner flash by every 5 seconds. Falling for that was your first mistake.

Your second mistake was to keep going: a classic gambler's rookie mistake. Gamblers tend to think "I *must* open yet another 100 boxes, otherwise I'm going home with nothing." That's how they get you.

Live and learn. Simply don't allow yourself to get burned like that again. The system, however, is WAI.

wideningxgyre

I'm fine with the lockboxes. I usually don't buy keys, but am fine with the mechanic. If people are willing to spend the money, and it helps to keep the servers powered and content coming, I'm all for them. While there is a conversion between EC, Zen, dil, and money, practical limitations on players make individual players value each currency differently.

However, I do think that the odds of winning each tier of prize should be clearly stated. I realize that it would deter most people from opening them once they knew how low the odds are. But, as it stands now, we all know the odds of winning a T6 ship are low.

What has been added to the mix is a lot of misinformation with people quoting anecdotal experience as empirical data.

davefenestrator

terminatrixxx#8288 wrote: »

Greetings dear forum members,

i have opened well over 300 different lockboxes, during the time i am playing STO.
Yesterday, i bought 50 keys, grabbed the same amount of inifinty boxes and opened them right away all together.
Not that i need to win a ship i might not use but there should be at least a 5 or 10 % chance to get one.
It seems everyone around winning ships just not me - from 300 boxes of all kinds, no ship....nothing....but alot of fleetmark and reputation mark vouchers.
There is something clearly not right.

What's not right:

You've never read any of the many, many threads explaining the odds are 1 in 250 (based on several large studies) and how probability works: before opening 350 packs, the chance for at least one ship in the 350 is 1.0 - (0.996 ^ 350) = 0.7541 = only 75.4%. So there is a 1 in 4 chance of no ships, and your experience is normal.

(Someone who hasn't taken a class in stats will chime in about the gambler's fallacy and how the odds on each pack are always just 1:250. True, but ** before you open any packs!!! *** you can calculate the odds of never rolling a 250.)

You've ignored the advice to sell keys for EC and buy the ship for EC if the ship is what you really want and not lobi and the other prizes.

ashstorm1

As it's been said above, never open lockboxes with your mind set on getting a grand prize ship, OP. This is a 99% sure and direct path to disappointment.

geekguy79

I too ONLY open lockboxes for Lobi now. But even when I do, .. I've been playing for about 7 years now, have opened hundreds and hundreds n hundreds of boxes over the years, probly close to if not more than a thousand, and I have actually NEVER won a good ship, a handful of worthless mirror ships back in the day, and thats it. NEVER won a good ship, not once, ever.

I think my bad luck beats yours :P

tigeraries

this is why folks call em gamble boxes. if your lucky all you need is 1 key... if not 100 or even 1,000 won't get your any ships cause the chance to get stays the same regardless of how many you open. but hey you can take the lobi and pick up a booby prize.

angrytarg

I honestly find it curious that people would open packs for the Lobi to begin with. This is just something to make oneself feel better, isn't it? Because if you actually willingly spend money to accumulate Lobi you end up paying ludicrous amounts for singular, character only items. For instance, a 50 Lobi weapon (one single item) is roughly 10 €/$. If that is really what you are going for, that's not really better than 250 €/$ for a single ship ​​

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davefenestrator

angrytarg wrote: »

I honestly find it curious that people would open packs for the Lobi to begin with. This is just something to make oneself feel better, isn't it? Because if you actually willingly spend money to accumulate Lobi you end up paying ludicrous amounts for singular, character only items. For instance, a 50 Lobi weapon (one single item) is roughly 10 €/$. If that is really what you are going for, that's not really better than 250 €/$ for a single ship ​​

I have a good job,and I live well below my means (zero debt) so spending $10 on a costume or weapon a few times a year to go with a captain's theme isn't unreasonable to me. For example I have a Terran Empire defector captain flying a Paradox (bought by selling keys), with Terran Mirror uniforms for the captain and crew.

I'll usually buy lobi items with EC, but some are bind on pickup, and some non-ship items are overpriced on the exchange. So I open a gamble box now and then for the lobi, knowing I'll never get a ship.

Space Barbie is the real endgame.

nightken

angrytarg wrote: »

I honestly find it curious that people would open packs for the Lobi to begin with. This is just something to make oneself feel better, isn't it? Because if you actually willingly spend money to accumulate Lobi you end up paying ludicrous amounts for singular, character only items. For instance, a 50 Lobi weapon (one single item) is roughly 10 €/$. If that is really what you are going for, that's not really better than 250 €/$ for a single ship ​​

funny thing about that 10 bucks for a item isn't too bad one character or not. going to se a movie in theaters is about 15 for just the ticket and a long movie is only about 3 hours but you'll use a lobi weapon for a lot longer.

storules

reyan01 wrote: »

'Rule of thumb' is that it's better to sell the lock box keys on the exchange, and then use the EC gained from key-sales to buy the ship you want from the exchange.

This is the GOLDEN RULE...never gamble unless you need lobbis. Why bother gambling when you can get anything from the Exchange or Trade...at times at lower ridiculous prices.​​

legendarylycan

valoreah wrote: »

angrytarg wrote: »

I honestly find it curious that people would open packs for the Lobi to begin with. This is just something to make oneself feel better, isn't it? Because if you actually willingly spend money to accumulate Lobi you end up paying ludicrous amounts for singular, character only items. For instance, a 50 Lobi weapon (one single item) is roughly 10 €/$. If that is really what you are going for, that's not really better than 250 €/$ for a single ship

Not really that much different than folks willing to fork over millions of dil for single character costume unlocks. Never underestimate the power of the Space Barbie. Some of those costumes and pets are worth their weight in gold!

so are some of the items, because they're just that good - like the khannon, the advanced wizard staff, i think the tzenkethi assault weapon or whatever it is

the jem'hadar minigun and voth shock cannon are also supposed to be good, but i can't personally confirm that, as is that one console with the +CritD - the elachi one or whatever set it's from, but that's more for DPS builds than a general good item​​