Oh I have, bought lockbox ships that I wanted off the exchange. I stopped opening them with any hope at all of a ship long ago. It'd still be nice tho, when I do open them just for lobi, to eventuallyyyy finally get a top prize too.
And were you to continue opening boxes from now until the end of time, eventually you would get a top prize. But if that isn't important to you, then why worry about it?
No I probly wouldn't. I could open a million and still never win a ship. My luck is terrible. lol
Like I said before Law of averages doesn't work that way. Based on old wiki info, the odds of getting the top prize are roughly .5% or 1/50. Granted, there is no guarantee that if you open 50 lockboxes, you would win the top prize (and probably you wouldn't).
But the way statistics works even if the odds don't change (meaning each box is a 1/50 as oppose to 1/49, 1/48, etc.) in order to have that precentage the larger the population (in this case boxes opened) the closer you get to the actual percentage.
I don't know the mathematics of it, but basically, the fact that you keep not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure. Eventually (not sure the number, but we are talking upwards of 500 boxes probably) your odds became certain, in order to correct the percentage, at which case it drops back down.
FYI, it's actually 1 in 250 for lock boxes, 1 in 100 for R&D packs.
Probability has no memory so after opening 100 million boxes the odds for the next box are still only 1 in 250. It's only before opening a set of boxes that you can calculate group odds (dependent probability) for that specific set of boxes.
Not the faux 'probability has no memory' argument again, please. While the chances 'per roll' remain the same, of course, after opening enough boxes, eventually you are as good as guaranteed to hit the jackpot. Like throwing a dice, 5 billion times, hoping to have it land on '6' at least once: the chance that, at the end of rolling said dice 5 billion times, '6' didn't come up, is infinitesimal (in other words, you're pretty much guaranteed to have thrown '6' at least one). Ergo, it's true that "you not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure."
Not quite.
If you have already opened 100 million boxes without getting a ship, that is in the past. You were very unlucky but it has no effect on your future odds.
If you are going to open 100 million boxes over the next year, then yes you can expect to receive roughly 400,000 ships. But only before you start. After opening 50 million boxes, regardless of how many ships you've won the expected return from the next 50 million boxes drops to 200,000.
So saying that because you've already opened elventy dozen boxes your odds are now higher and you're bound to get a ship soon is wrong, and is known as the gambler's fallacy.
If you have already opened N boxes without getting a ship, you can look back and say the probability of that happening was x%. But that is independent of the odds for boxes (N+1) ... (N +100). The past is past, the future is not yet written.
You are pretty much contradicting yourself. Remember the part where you said 'probability has no memory'?! Indeed, it doesn't. So, the 1:250 chance remains constant. That statistical chance, per box opened, doesn't change for the worse (or the better). So, it's simply impossible to have opened a billion lock boxes, and never having gotten the Grand Prize. Period.
Were the above to happen, then it would simply mean the 1:250 odds were not accurate at all (barring the game being rigged and such) But if the odds are indeed 1:250, then it must follow, as an absolute, that, opening enough boxes (the more times done, the more accurate), your curve will show you that selfsame 1:250 chance. And that, as a consequence, you must have received at least 1 Prize Ship after, say, a million times. Either that, or the odds were different to begin with. You can't have your cookie and eat it.
Still nope.
The odds are 1 in 250, but each roll is independent die roll. This is not a set of trading card packs where the foil card has to appear exactly once in every case of 250 cards.
The probability approaches 100% for N as N increases, but (before you start) the probability is still 1.0 - (0.996 ^ N). For 250 boxes that is 63.29%. For 5,000 boxes that is 99.9999998%. It never quite reaches 100% for any finite N.
It's very, very, very, ..... , very, ..... very, very unlikely to open even 5,000 boxes and never get a ship. But it's not quite impossible.
Is it really 5,000 boxes? Not really doubting your math. Just saying, that is a lot.
Anyways, my whole point was, it is to get past something like 5,000 boxes and still not get the grand prize is statistically impossible. At a certain point, you HAVE to win. Otherwise there is something seriously wrong going on. Because you can't have something be 1/250 and yet NEVER have it happen.
Is it really 5,000 boxes? Not really doubting your math. Just saying, that is a lot.
Anyways, my whole point was, it is to get past something like 5,000 boxes and still not get the grand prize is statistically impossible. At a certain point, you HAVE to win. Otherwise there is something seriously wrong going on. Because you can't have something be 1/250 and yet NEVER have it happen.[/quote]
You can have odds of 1/2 and still never have it happen. Lockbox odds are for each individual lockbox, not for the total number of lockboxes. You can buy 1,000,000,000 lockboxes and still not win because each individual lockbox has a 1/250 chance of winning. Granted you would have to be really unlucky for it to happen, but it is possible.
It is also possible to buy and open 10 (20, 100...) lockboxes and win on every single one of them, not very likely, but still possible.
You can have odds of 1/2 and still never have it happen. Lockbox odds are for each individual lockbox, not for the total number of lockboxes. You can buy 1,000,000,000 lockboxes and still not win because each individual lockbox has a 1/250 chance of winning. Granted you would have to be really unlucky for it to happen, but it is possible.
No, honestly, at some point, it's simply impossible. As stated aboved, after having opened 5,000 lock boxes, you now have a 99.9999998% chance of being in possession of a Prize Ship. Now, before you say "But it's theoretically *still* possible, because the probability approaches 100% for N, as N increases, but never truly reaches 100!", all you have really done then, in the case of opening 1,000,000,000 lock boxes, is proven that the chances weren't really 1:250 to start with.
You can have odds of 1/2 and still never have it happen. Lockbox odds are for each individual lockbox, not for the total number of lockboxes. You can buy 1,000,000,000 lockboxes and still not win because each individual lockbox has a 1/250 chance of winning. Granted you would have to be really unlucky for it to happen, but it is possible.
It is also possible to buy and open 10 (20, 100...) lockboxes and win on every single one of them, not very likely, but still possible.
I want you to flip a coin and tell me how long you can go without getting tails.
That is why something is called statistically impossible. Because while it might technically be possible, the factors and odds in such an event happening is so slight, that it might as well be impossible. If you can't get the grand prize with a statistical probablity of 99.9999998%, you are either astronomically unlucky. Or something is VERY wrong, as in the odds are not "1/250."
Not true. You have about a 1/250 chance to win a ship from opening 1 lock box. The fact that you opened up 300 lock boxes and didn't win a ship is not unbelievable at all. It sucks, but there's nothing wrong at all.
When you see "TRIBBLE" in my posts, it's because I manually typed "TRIBBLE" and censored myself.
i have opened well over 300 different lockboxes, during the time i am playing STO.
Yesterday, i bought 50 keys, grabbed the same amount of inifinty boxes and opened them right away all together.
Not that i need to win a ship i might not use but there should be at least a 5 or 10 % chance to get one.
It seems everyone around winning ships just not me - from 300 boxes of all kinds, no ship....nothing....but alot of fleetmark and reputation mark vouchers.
There is something clearly not right.
Well I'm not against paying for certain loot, as long as I know what it is, or easier access in a game. I do think pay-to-win would suck, but I don't PvP so such doesn't affect me. I am against these sort of gambling boxes. It is gambling because we, as players/consumers, don't know the official odds/statistics because: CBS/PWE/Cryptic won't publish them for accountability & transparency & since the odds aren't legally known it is gambling. They don't want to publish the official odds because they're so dismal they'd discourage players from buying them & having the odds be unknown allows more hope for luck. Also, whatever those unofficial odds are on Tribble doesn't mean the odds are the same on Holodeck, the odds could be more or less, unless some Cryptic official wants to state such & be held accountable to that. Just like a casino's slots machines it is computer coded to seem random as best as we can simulate it, but it isn't random it is programmed hopefully with integrity.
With all that being said, you still bought & opened (50) boxes then you are complaining afterwards? I would be more sympathetic if it was your first time, but you stated it wasn't so leave your entitlement behind. Many have responded in this thread with sage advice about better methods to earn ships from selling the keys, buying keys off the Exchange, & etcetera . It was stated that perhaps the best perspective to have if you're going to open the boxes is to gain Lobi that way there is no disappointment. Last year I did my $50 bucks worth of keys & like you got zilch of the Epic/Ultra Rare Infinitys. So I learned my lesson & only buy keys off the Exchange with EC from then on. Besides, STO can be played & enjoyed completely without any of the gambling nonsense.
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Comments
Is it really 5,000 boxes? Not really doubting your math. Just saying, that is a lot.
Anyways, my whole point was, it is to get past something like 5,000 boxes and still not get the grand prize is statistically impossible. At a certain point, you HAVE to win. Otherwise there is something seriously wrong going on. Because you can't have something be 1/250 and yet NEVER have it happen.
Is it really 5,000 boxes? Not really doubting your math. Just saying, that is a lot.
Anyways, my whole point was, it is to get past something like 5,000 boxes and still not get the grand prize is statistically impossible. At a certain point, you HAVE to win. Otherwise there is something seriously wrong going on. Because you can't have something be 1/250 and yet NEVER have it happen.[/quote]
You can have odds of 1/2 and still never have it happen. Lockbox odds are for each individual lockbox, not for the total number of lockboxes. You can buy 1,000,000,000 lockboxes and still not win because each individual lockbox has a 1/250 chance of winning. Granted you would have to be really unlucky for it to happen, but it is possible.
It is also possible to buy and open 10 (20, 100...) lockboxes and win on every single one of them, not very likely, but still possible.
No, honestly, at some point, it's simply impossible. As stated aboved, after having opened 5,000 lock boxes, you now have a 99.9999998% chance of being in possession of a Prize Ship. Now, before you say "But it's theoretically *still* possible, because the probability approaches 100% for N, as N increases, but never truly reaches 100!", all you have really done then, in the case of opening 1,000,000,000 lock boxes, is proven that the chances weren't really 1:250 to start with.
I want you to flip a coin and tell me how long you can go without getting tails.
That is why something is called statistically impossible. Because while it might technically be possible, the factors and odds in such an event happening is so slight, that it might as well be impossible. If you can't get the grand prize with a statistical probablity of 99.9999998%, you are either astronomically unlucky. Or something is VERY wrong, as in the odds are not "1/250."
Well I'm not against paying for certain loot, as long as I know what it is, or easier access in a game. I do think pay-to-win would suck, but I don't PvP so such doesn't affect me. I am against these sort of gambling boxes. It is gambling because we, as players/consumers, don't know the official odds/statistics because: CBS/PWE/Cryptic won't publish them for accountability & transparency & since the odds aren't legally known it is gambling. They don't want to publish the official odds because they're so dismal they'd discourage players from buying them & having the odds be unknown allows more hope for luck. Also, whatever those unofficial odds are on Tribble doesn't mean the odds are the same on Holodeck, the odds could be more or less, unless some Cryptic official wants to state such & be held accountable to that. Just like a casino's slots machines it is computer coded to seem random as best as we can simulate it, but it isn't random it is programmed hopefully with integrity.
With all that being said, you still bought & opened (50) boxes then you are complaining afterwards? I would be more sympathetic if it was your first time, but you stated it wasn't so leave your entitlement behind. Many have responded in this thread with sage advice about better methods to earn ships from selling the keys, buying keys off the Exchange, & etcetera . It was stated that perhaps the best perspective to have if you're going to open the boxes is to gain Lobi that way there is no disappointment. Last year I did my $50 bucks worth of keys & like you got zilch of the Epic/Ultra Rare Infinitys. So I learned my lesson & only buy keys off the Exchange with EC from then on. Besides, STO can be played & enjoyed completely without any of the gambling nonsense.
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