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Undine Lockbox NOT giving me a ship!!
borgx666
Member Posts: 127 Arc User
i have spent well over £200, opened around 200 lockboxes and still have NOT got an Undine Nicor Ship!!
all other boxes ive opened in the past i got a ship after about 60 boxes
what the hell is going on with the Undine Lockbox??
talk about being ripped off, its nothing more than a cash cow for cryptic
how many more boxes, how much more money do i have to blow to get 1 of these non existant ships!! :mad:
all other boxes ive opened in the past i got a ship after about 60 boxes
what the hell is going on with the Undine Lockbox??
talk about being ripped off, its nothing more than a cash cow for cryptic
how many more boxes, how much more money do i have to blow to get 1 of these non existant ships!! :mad:
Post edited by borgx666 on
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Comments
Don't gamble. At least not with real money.
This is how an otherwise F2P game makes money.
I haven't seen any Nicors flown by players so far, so I assume that the percentage on them is pretty low. Your experience suggests that the chance is about one-half a percent--but it might be lower. (Or higher. That's the nature of random numbers--even pseudo-random numbers.)
Declaring it a rip-off just ignores that all gambling is about risk--and when it's not a so-called "game of skill" versus human opponents, it's nothing but risk. The reality is that no one made you spend the £200 but you. You made a decision, and you're seeing the consequences.
All you have to do now is decide between wisdom or acceptance. Choose well, amigo.
You are most likely to pull junk out of the box every single time. It is possible to roll a rare event, too and it is a statisticall certainty it will happen eventually but the most likely outcome at every single role is the most common content the box has.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qXqYnM8OR3I/U1bEqPjg9DI/AAAAAAAAE-M/eTVzuzvqXVQ/s1600/Chance3.png
You could have used 179 EUR (147 GBP today's exchange rate) to buy 21500 Zen.
10 keys = 1125 Zen (normal price)
(21500/1125)*10 = 190 keys
Key price in exchange (yesterday's price) ) = 2,5 mil (might be more)
190*2.5 mil = 475 mil?
Current prices of 8472 nicor ship = 179 mil
But thank you for your contribution. Please visit QnoS and I will buy you a drink, and a slave girl in dark alleys of the city.
Ain't Nobody Got Time for That
[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
The odds of getting one of these ships is slightly better than 1 in 200. So even after opening 200 boxes the statistical chance of you getting a ship is just 1.
And statistics mean nothing in a game of random chance. There is no mechanic that guarantees you a ship. You could open 1000 and not get any or you could have 10. It's pure chance.
The absolute point of the lock-boxes, is to lure the gullible and naive into spending small amounts of money.. so small that they seem insignificant enough for people to lose sight of the fact that 100 x1 dollar is 100 dollars.
One dollar here, one dollar there... that's nothing right?
Based on your OP, you clearly are not gullible or naive...
You simply realized that lock-boxes are a trap, designed to give you a sense that you can win something grand, and then... Disappoint you.
Just to be clear: There is nothing in this post designed to upset you... I simply and honestly believe that this is the way the lock-boxes work.
if you only do it for the one rare price you already lost most likely.
But it's not like you got nohing out of it.
Let's start with lobi. If you indeed opened 200 boxes you have at the absolute bare minimum 800 lobi, which is enough for, guess what, a ship!
Maybe not exactly the one you wanted, but a ship nonetheless.
You can pick any of the lobi ships available in fact.
So if none of them interest you, pick the one with the highest price on the exchange, sell it and you should at last be half way to the Nicor already.
Now let's look at what else you got out of the boxes. Doffs, high value weapons, traits...
Sell the ones you don't want. there should be tons in your inventory. probably millions worth of EC.
If you are STILL not at what you need for the Nicor on the exchange the difference should be so minimal, that you can get the remeining EC together in no time.
Exactly, I still don't understand why people think opening more boxes means their chance increases. I opened a couple of boxes when the Cardy ones came out and there was the gold one. I got the ship. Other opened tons and never got it.
I have only opened a couple since on the odd occasion I buy a key off the exchange, and even then it more along the lines of entering those texting comps you can get on soft drinks or bars of chocolate. That is "well it's only pennies so I might as well give it a quick go". I get lucky I get lucky and if not it's not really a problem as it is only one or two keys once in a blue moon.
You can open literally 100000 lockboxes without getting one. Or get one in the first one.
I will never ever ever understand how a sane adult person can invest that kind of money into gambling, even less into lockbox gambling.
Buying a handful of keys for here and there... bad enough. But £200???
You get a used car for that. You get four to six full priced new games for this. An entire village in africa can live from that money for a month.
But no... knowingly investing that into gambling and then whining that one doesn't win.
Lets just say I have not much respect for the people who do that as persons.... Hard to imagine that such person is reliable enough to even hold a bank account... not even thinking about having or educating own children at some point. Sorry... But just no.
Well, not our fault if you are a fool. Specially if you waste REAL money in lockboxes, and specially in UNDINE lockboxes.
I dont have anything else to say. Only rich people or people who doesnt care the game at all wastes so much money in lockboxes, and thats precisely what cryptic wants.. thank you so much. :mad:
And im "glad" that you didnt get a ship.
Well, you must have found something worth putting on the exchange, and so, bung those on the exchange - hopefully you have enough for the ship. If not, you have at least 800 Lobi, and they can be used to buy Lobi ships - get one of them repeat process.
Bottom line is, you are looking to buy one from someone else.
Now your £200 aren't completely wasted, but for future reference, buy keys (or even better, buy contraband to turn into dil into Zen to buy keys) and sell them on the exchange, let someone else gamble away their £200.
Or, accept you gambled £200 and lost it all.
Edit for correct currency...
After drinking blood wine from the fountain and fornicating with a slave girl in holy city of QnoS, I fail to see how and why would they like to touch Romulan Ale.
Ain't Nobody Got Time for That
[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
There are many ways to look at statistics. You can look at the averages and say "well, there is a 1% chance to win, so if I open just over 100, I should get one, right?". This is sort of true, but ...
every box you have 1 in 100 chance to win (or whatever it is, using 1% cause its easy to explain). There is no memory of your earlier attempts, its a new go and each new go is *extremely unlikely* to win.
So every time you open one, you should expect to not win. Eventually you will, sure. But when it happens, it happens.
Each box you open has a 0.5% chance of giving a lockbox, and a 99.5% of giving something else.
You say you got a ship every other lockbox in under 60 keys. Statistically, that's very lucky. With a single lockbox, you have just over a 74% of NOT getting a ship within 30 keys. Barely over 1/4 of actually getting one - doing that repeatedly is impressive. If you've done that four times, you're an outlier, your chances of having done that are about 0.4% (while rare, this is still not so rare that you'd expect your story to be unique - there should be a very few others who've had the same outcome).
At 200 your expected ships is 1, but your actual chances of having one aren't that reassuring. You've got about a 37% chance of NOT getting a ship within 200 keys.
The variance on this kind of thing is HUGE - neither of those situations is far enough off of average to even be unusual, they're literally things you'd expect to happen dozens of times a day (particularly if you look at the entire population as a single unit opening all the boxes - not many individual users are opening boxes at the rate the OP is).
as others have stated already...you could have gotten atleast 4 with that kind of real money...wait another 3 weeks and the price per ship further drops
patients and using 2 braincells could have gotten you the ship for a 10th of what you already spent.
the only reason ever to open lockboxes would be to get Lobi....
it appeared that the drop rate was dropping over the last few boxes - it could now be as high as 1/250!!!
of course as someone pointed out - that means you could open 1 box and get the ship - or open 400 and not get the ship.
But with the lower numbers of Nicors out there there could be a mix of a few things:
Less people buying boxes
Higher demand for the ship on the exchange
Cryptic lowered the drop rate - they never "officially" publish what it is so it's just a guess on our part.
I think most other gambling things in America have to post odds - but I am not sure - like do Vegas casino's have to post the slot machine odds?
Real story.
Never been a lock boxes addict, but, when I saw the stats of that ship, I decided that it was worth a try.
Moreover, in the first days after the release of the undine lock boxes, I noticed that in the game many times the yellow message popping up " X has acquired an undine nicor bioship" so I thought that maybe the chances of getting it were better in those days, so if I was going to spend X dil, zen or money, better do it now also considering that there was a discount on the master keys.
My friend told me that she got the ship after opening about 60 lockboxes so I thought to give it a try although I had no intention of spending the hell out of my resources to get that ship. If I were to get it after some lockboxes, fine ... otherwise I'd stick with my Avenger and see you at the exchange.
Anyway, I needed lobis to buy 3 Elachi bioinfusion consoles for my toons, a console that I could find only in the lobi store.
I got the ship after opening about 40-50 lockboxes.
I have spent only 20$ in real money, the rest was dilithium and EC.
Also because, during the process, I came to acquire a few consoles, especially that one which looks like a pancake lol , MK XII purple undine weapons which didn't appeal to me at all for PvE
So it's not just the shiny ship which matters, but all of the rest that you can find and possibly sell at the exchange, getting a fair good amount of EC that you can then spend - say- half on buying stuff that you need and half on buying a few more keys, depending on the most logical course of action in that moment.
But that doesn't mean you'll get a Grand Prize ship by opening 222 lockboxes; that's not how statistics works.
With the data I have so far, in order to have a 95% chance of getting a Grand Prize ship you'd need to open 664 lockboxes:
Chance to win: 0.45%
Chance to lose: 99.55%
Chance to lose x times in a row: 99.55% ^ x
Chance to win x times in a row: 1 - (99.55% ^ x)
Value of x to make chance to win x times in a row 95%: 664
Sounds like you're a lucky son of a gun, and your luck finally ran out.
I've accrued over 200 keys during my time in STO. Of those 200+ keys, only 10 have been used on the Undine lockbox. I have never won a single ship (aside from a few worthless mirror ships).
(Of course, then I bought a few DOff packs with my stipend and got a JHAS on the second one.
Yes, they did. 12,000 tribble-cloned boxes, detailed in two threads here on the forums and the STOwiki page.
There's no indication of declining chances.
The whole history, in order from first to last:
Cardassian: 0.40
Ferengi: 0.37 (lowest)
Tholian: 0.41
Temporal: 0.41
Dominion: 0.38
Tal Shiar: 0.42
Elachi: 0.42
Voth: 0.40
Hirogen: 0.44 (highest)
Undine: 0.42
Mean: 0.407
Median: 0.41
The lowest drop rate seen in a lockbox was from one of the first, and the highest was from one of the most recent. The current lockbox is above the long-term average. In fact, all lockboxes that have been above average have been in the bottom half of the list (and no, that doesn't suggest a trend towards better drop rates, either, the variances here are so small as to be meaningless).
Defending The Galaxy By Breaking One Starfleet Regulation After The Next.
As other people have said, best thing to do is use the Lobi and other things from the box, sell them for ec, and buy the ship. Buying keys and selling them would have been more efficient from the start.
May I remind you...?
Insulting other posters is against the rule regardless of your reasons for doing it.
I advise anyone who violated the rule to go back and edit your posts, ASAP.
~ Bluegeek
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