Refining for cheap

Atone - Lost City

Olbaze - Sanctuary wrote: »

With the recent sales (Tisha/Tienkang, Dragon Orbs dropping from 0.27 to 0.045), at least the Zoho Sheet has lost lots of accuracy. Having that it rounds figures to an accuracy of 0.05 and runs with those, it's pretty bad, as it'll tell you things such as Ocean Orb being cheaper to +8 than a 8* orb, when the actual prices are 20 Gold and 18.225 Gold, respectively.

Is this an issue with the precision of Zoho Sheet itself, or is it something you put in?

Also, I noticed that the Zoho Sheet has something funky going on with the refreshing of the cells. A lot of times a change you make won't affect all the cells and you get funky results, where re-doing the change will often fix it.

I was thinking similarly. I had changed the prices on the Zoho sheet to reflect the latest sale, and it still suggested the same as before. Tishas and tienkiangs might still be the best option for +5 and +6, but after that I would say it's better just to make the orbs. Hell I'm pretty sure i'll just make the orbs from +6 and on, just because I don't want to scrounge around finding DQ to convert into Tishas/Tienkiangs to save a few million.

Olbaze - Sanctuary

Atone - Lost City wrote: »

I was thinking similarly. I had changed the prices on the Zoho sheet to reflect the latest sale, and it still suggested the same as before. Tishas and tienkiangs might still be the best option for +5 and +6, but after that I would say it's better just to make the orbs. Hell I'm pretty sure i'll just make the orbs from +6 and on, just because I don't want to scrounge around finding DQ to convert into Tishas/Tienkiangs to save a few million.

Well. For example, inputting the following, current data from Sanctuary:
Gold 1,535,000
Mirages 30,000 (two)
1* Dragon Orb 0.045 Gold
Tisha/Tienkang 0.14 Gold

I get the following results:
+1-2 Mirages
+3-6 Dragon Orbs
+7 Tisha
+8-10 Ocean Orbs
+11 Tisha
+12 Dragon Orb Flame

Out of these, everything except the Tisha at +7 makes sense. The +7 does not make sense because the +7 Orb price is screwed by the rounding issue. Though, obviously, no one is really going to use a Tisha at +11.

After changing the Risk Aversion from 10% to a personally more realistic 30%, the sheet tells me that the best refining choice is to use Mirage on +1 and Dragon Orbs on everything else. But again, it still suggests Ocean Orb on +8 because of rounding issues.

It's especially since the actual price increase from the rounding is at 11%. That's a pretty massive margin of error.

/Eclipse - Harshlands50

Olbaze - Sanctuary wrote: »

With the recent sales (Tisha/Tienkang, Dragon Orbs dropping from 0.27 to 0.045), at least the Zoho Sheet has lost lots of accuracy. Having that it rounds figures to an accuracy of 0.05 and runs with those, it's pretty bad, as it'll tell you things such as Ocean Orb being cheaper to +8 than a 8* orb, when the actual prices are 20 Gold and 18.225 Gold, respectively.

Is this an issue with the precision of Zoho Sheet itself, or is it something you put in?

Either change the format options of the cell (increase number of digits) or put in "=0.45/10". Both ways should bring back the accuracy.

Mirage price is really at 15k each on your server? You get scammed a lot by these merchants since mirages are worth 11k at max with this fairy boxes and other sources b:shutup

Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973

I've noticed changes in the zoho sheet are not always fully propagating through dependant cells. Try using the excel one if you can.

Also mirages are barely 10.5k on sanc last I saw.

Yin - Momaganon

Sure it is better use tishas to get +11. If it fails it is cheaper to buy dragon orb ocean and try again than get higher orb. Same goes to +7.

I didn't check rounding completly but at least when you input 0,045 1* D.orb is different than when you input 0,05. It just shows it in 2 decimal accuracy but i think (didn't check yet) it calculates with 0,045 instead of 0.05.

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

Hmmm... stupid rounding errors in Zoho Sheet, huh?

I'll have to do some experiments and figure out what's going on...

nilamc

Hi,

I am Nilam from ZohoSheet team and happy to see an exciting discussion about the ZohoSheet.

First, my sincere apologies for the bug got introduced and all the trouble caused to you. We have taken up this issue in high priority and we will roll out fix in our next update. Meantime, please use the workaround (increase decimal points or multiply value etc.) as suggested by other guys.

Happy Gaming,
Nilam

Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973

nilamc wrote: »

Hi,

I am Nilam from ZohoSheet team and happy to see an exciting discussion about the ZohoSheet.

First, my sincere apologies for the bug got introduced and all the trouble caused to you. We have taken up this issue in high priority and we will roll out fix in our next update. Meantime, please use the workaround (increase decimal points or multiply value etc.) as suggested by other guys.

Happy Gaming,
Nilam

Wow is this what customer service is like in the real world?! You guys should give lessons to the people who run this game b:laugh

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

nilamc wrote: »

First, my sincere apologies for the bug got introduced and all the trouble caused to you. We have taken up this issue in high priority and we will roll out fix in our next update. Meantime, please use the workaround (increase decimal points or multiply value etc.) as suggested by other guys.

Oh wow. Now THAT'S customer service! b:shocked

Thanks for the info, I'll implement the work-around as suggested until you guys have time to fix the bug.

- UPDATE -

The bug doesn't appear to be a rounding error. It's being caused by the "MIN" command.

"MIN" gets confused when given a range (ex. "C10:D10"), but it seems to work OK if I give it a list instead (ex. "C10,D10").

I've implemented the work-around.

Anhialitor - Heavens Tear

+7 with 610 mirages is stated in the first post.
I dont think this is acurate at all.
610 mrages alot of the time doesnt even get me +3

Is it just my bad luck ?

Okeano - Harshlands

What's the exact math behind Tisha +11? 15.5% at 25 mil a pop, with +11 orb costing 118.3 mil currently if you buy dragon fire packs. You do... 25000000/0.155?

Olbaze - Sanctuary

Okeano - Harshlands wrote: »

What's the exact math behind Tisha +11? 15.5% at 25 mil a pop, with +11 orb costing 118.3 mil currently if you buy dragon fire packs. You do... 25000000/0.155?

Not quite.

25,000,000/0.155 is slightly inaccurate. There's two reasons for that, really. The first would be that you do not pay an Ocean Orb to reset back to +10 if you succeed, and 1/0.155 is the expected number of refine attempts until you succeed. Meaning that there is one Ocean Orb too much, as the last refine is a success. The second would be that 1/0.155 is a real number, not an integer, so the expected cost gotten from using that number is only mathematically accurate and does not make sense in the in-game context.

Since 1/0.155 = ~6.45, you end up with "expected best case scenario" being 5 fails before you succeed, meaning 5 Ocean Orbs and 6 Tishas used and a "expected worst case scenario", being 6 fails before you succeed, meaning 6 Ocean Orbs and 7 Tishas used.

Either way:
5 Ocean Orbs and 6 Tishas comes to 101.62 Gold
6 Ocean Orbs and 7 Tishas comes to 121.89 Gold
+11 Orb comes to 123.95 Gold

Okeano - Harshlands

Olbaze - Sanctuary wrote: »

+11 Orb comes to 123.95 Gold

That's using 0.09 gold per 1* right? With the new Dragon Fire bundle, 1*s are 0.0706 gold per, which brings the cost of 11* to 101.5 gold. Idk what to feel about Tisha to 11 b:surrender.

Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973

Okeano - Harshlands wrote: »

What's the exact math behind Tisha +11? 15.5% at 25 mil a pop, with +11 orb costing 118.3 mil currently if you buy dragon fire packs. You do... 25000000/0.155?

If you succeed you pay 1 mirage and 1 tisha.
For every fail you pay 2 mirage 1 tisha and 1 ocean.

#success / total attempts = 0.155
total attempts = #success + # failures

You want the cost so that #success = 1
so
1 / (1 + #failures) = 0.155

#failures = 1/0.155 - 1 = 5.45
#success = 1

You can expect 5.45 failures before your 1 success.

total cost = (2mir + tisha + ocean)*#failures + (tisha + mirage)*#success
total cost = (2mir + tisha + ocean)*5.45+ (tisha + mirage)

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

Anhialitor - Heavens Tear wrote: »

+7 with 610 mirages is stated in the first post.
I dont think this is acurate at all.
610 mrages alot of the time doesnt even get me +3

Is it just my bad luck ?

Unfortunately, yes, you had a run of bad luck, but also the number 610 in the first post was just a theory, back when we didn't know how refining actually worked.

If you do refining properly (ie. by taking the time to understand how to use the refining spreadsheet correctly), then refining armour to +7 will average about 820 Mirages, plus about 50 Tienkangs/Tishas.

But keep in mind you'll rarely see the average if you're refining just 1 item. Most of the time you either end up paying a bunch less or a bunch more.

Okeano - Harshlands wrote: »

That's using 0.09 gold per 1* right? With the new Dragon Fire bundle, 1*s are 0.0706 gold per, which brings the cost of 11* to 101.5 gold. Idk what to feel about Tisha to 11 b:surrender.

Personally, I have a hard time believing PWI will be able to stick to their decision not to bring back +11, +12 sales at some point, so I'm reluctant to refine past +10 atm.

Mayfly - Dreamweaver

In Excel 2010, the Reset Trials sub throws a Compile Error with the "x" in "For Each x in Selection" highlighted.

Pyrostormz - Raging Tide

i tried this, but dragon orbs is just less frustrating 0.o

Stressedout - Dreamweaver

Anhialitor - Heavens Tear wrote: »

+7 with 610 mirages is stated in the first post.
I dont think this is acurate at all.
610 mrages alot of the time doesnt even get me +3

Is it just my bad luck ?

For what it's worth I have the same luck.

I can tear up 100's of mirages easily and never see + 3. On the other hand my G.F. has repeatedly brought items to +3 with less than 50.

I used to think crafting skills might influence refining chances. Turns out they don't either. I have smith & tailor skills, she doesn't, go figure.....

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

Mayfly - Dreamweaver wrote: »

In Excel 2010, the Reset Trials sub throws a Compile Error with the "x" in "For Each x in Selection" highlighted.

Hmm... I'll have to take a look at it when I'm on lunch-break at work. I only have Office 2000 at home.

Pyrostormz - Raging Tide wrote: »

i tried this, but dragon orbs is just less frustrating 0.o

Yup.

My method of dealing with it is to set specific goals that I'm going to adhere to, no matter what. For example, "I'm going to refine this to +5, or I'm going to stop at +3 if I run lower than 100 Mirages". Also I never pay any attention to hunches, feelings, lucky/unlucky streaks, etc... Getting my emotions involved in something that's purely probabilistic just makes it tough to do the right thing.

Mayfly - Dreamweaver

I tried to simulate cost of the event boutique tishas and tienkangs in the spreadsheet by setting their gold price to .03, and the best choices were mirage for +1 and +2, tienkangs for +3-+5, tishas for +6-+10 then surprisingly tienkang again for +11. +12 was Dragon Orb Flame. This was, again, in Excel 2010. Any idea why the spreadsheet thought the tienkang would be a good choice for +11? Rounding error?

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

Mayfly - Dreamweaver wrote: »

I tried to simulate cost of the event boutique tishas and tienkangs in the spreadsheet by setting their gold price to .03, and the best choices were mirage for +1 and +2, tienkangs for +3-+5, tishas for +6-+10 then surprisingly tienkang again for +11. +12 was Dragon Orb Flame. This was, again, in Excel 2010. Any idea why the spreadsheet thought the tienkang would be a good choice for +11? Rounding error?

When I put in current Sanctuary prices (10.5k Mirage, 1.7m Gold, 0.045 Gold for D.Orb 1s, 20 Gold for D.Orb Ocean), along with your estimate of 0.03 Gold for Tienkangs/Tishas, then +11 is calculated to be much cheaper with a D.Orb 11 than it is for risking it with a Tienkang.

Can you give me the exact numbers you used for everything?

Also, I'm kinda stumped how best to estimate the cost of using event Gold to get Tishas/Tienkangs. I've been using a similar estimate to yours of about 0.04. Event Gold is basically free if you get it through the Tiger Event, or if you're a merchant and you take advantage of a special sale offer. But the amount you can get is limited over time, so I'm not sure how exactly to put a price on it.

- EDIT -

I think I managed to re-create your results. When I put D.Orb 1s at regular price and no D.Orb Oceans on sale, then I get Mirage -> Tienkang -> Tisha -> Tienkang -> D.Orb Flame results.

The result would be correct if you were actually trying to refine without on-sale D.Orbs, but of course that would be far, far more expensive.

Elenacostel - Heavens Tear

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »

Also, I'm kinda stumped how best to estimate the cost of using event Gold to get Tishas/Tienkangs. I've been using a similar estimate to yours of about 0.04. Event Gold is basically free if you get it through the Tiger Event, or if you're a merchant and you take advantage of a special sale offer. But the amount you can get is limited over time, so I'm not sure how exactly to put a price on it.

You can compute a price estimate based on the Silver Guardian charms, which is about the only other thing that's useful in the Event Boutique. Take the market price of Platinum Charms, figure out the coin-capacity ratio, then use that to get a coin cost of the Silver charms. This gives you a monetary value of the Event Gold.

Mayfly - Dreamweaver

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »

When I put in current Sanctuary prices (10.5k Mirage, 1.7m Gold, 0.045 Gold for D.Orb 1s, 20 Gold for D.Orb Ocean), along with your estimate of 0.03 Gold for Tienkangs/Tishas, then +11 is calculated to be much cheaper with a D.Orb 11 than it is for risking it with a Tienkang.

Can you give me the exact numbers you used for everything?

Also, I'm kinda stumped how best to estimate the cost of using event Gold to get Tishas/Tienkangs. I've been using a similar estimate to yours of about 0.04. Event Gold is basically free if you get it through the Tiger Event, or if you're a merchant and you take advantage of a special sale offer. But the amount you can get is limited over time, so I'm not sure how exactly to put a price on it.

- EDIT -

I think I managed to re-create your results. When I put D.Orb 1s at regular price and no D.Orb Oceans on sale, then I get Mirage -> Tienkang -> Tisha -> Tienkang -> D.Orb Flame results.

The result would be correct if you were actually trying to refine without on-sale D.Orbs, but of course that would be far, far more expensive.

Finally had a chance to look at my saved version of your spreadsheets, and sure enough, I had 1 stars at .27 instead of .045. The switch back to Tienkang at +11 still looks weird to me.

Using Elena's method, I get .078 regular gold for the value of one event gold with platinum charms on sale, and .233 regular gold with them off sale.

Hoby - Harshlands

any one can tell me the amount of each d. orbs using for each d.orb for ex
to make d.orb 4*
needs 25 d orbs 1*
make 5 d orbs 2*
make 2 d orbs 3*
and so on
i ran into guide like that but cant find it
maybe any of u knows
ty

Mayfly - Dreamweaver

It shouldn't be hard to find... after all, it's one of the stickies in this subforum.

Ubnext - Sanctuary

I refined four items the other day. i succeed 1 then fail 1 and it continues til i refine +2
then it seems to run the same amount of fails before refine succeeds to the next upper digit.
I only did +4 on all four items, and notice the same sequences of loss verses gains.
it seemed more of a two steps back two steps forward, three steps back three step forward, four steps back, four steps forward.
doesn't seem random to me, seems like its set to be pretty consistent.
still a waste of a lot of mirages. but with Gold over 2 MILLION COIN last week it gets pretty expensive for orbs.

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

Ubnext - Sanctuary wrote: »

doesn't seem random to me, seems like its set to be pretty consistent.

Yeah, it always seems like there's a pattern, but it keeps changing. That's just the nature of random numbers. We see patterns and think they're predictive, but they're not. They're just random patterns.

Today I refined 3 items to +5. After a bunch of the usual success/fail, I had a streak of 18 fails in a row! I had to go back and double-check the count (I thought it was only 16 the first time through!), and calculated the odds of that happening as 1 in 218,453. That's a new personal record for me.

But the weird part was that I then got my +5 on the very next 5 refines, followed by 1 fail, then 5 more refines for the next item to +5.

Certainly, it didn't seem random. But it was, because the third item ended up just being more of the same old boring success/fail until it eventually got to +5.

Guilewulf - Archosaur

btw I did not read every single thread so dont shoot me if someone else said this.If you refine with no add ons and fail you lose all +,s on your item so only way to be for sure that you dont lose it all is chienkun stones no loss if you fail. if you notice they are not for sale with event gold hint hint. so here is the way it breaks down 10 cost 9 gold so 10 chances for half the price of one +5 dragon orb.

so if that theroy of 45% is correct 1 in 3 trys at worst will work so 20 mirage stones and 10 chienkum should yeild +3
re
here is I side note I have not tested it yet but I will on the first. I think yes its a gamble and if it truly worked like this everyone would have +12 gear because I know I am no genius and if I thought of it someone else has as well.

stay tuned for results of this gamble and if it works be watching for the soon to follow nerf lol

ps:update to trasfer a +7 refinement it takes 100 chienkum stones so there is a good idea about how many trys it will take you with out a dragon orb to get from 6 to7 but as always its like playing slots its a matter of luck

Mayfly - Dreamweaver

No loss of refining with chienkuns, but the refining rate falls off very fast. They end up more expensive than dragon orbs.

SweetBloody - Sanctuary

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