What did you get from the anniversary event?

Absoluth - Heavens Tear

Eternalnub - Heavens Tear wrote: »

just FYI im lil bit older than you

You have no idea who i am or what my age is. Another ignorant assumption. Even if you were in fact older than me, you're still acting like a child.

Eternalnub - Heavens Tear

Absoluth - Heavens Tear wrote: »

You have no idea who i am or what my age is. Another ignorant assumption. Even if you were in fact older than me, you're still acting like a child.

acting like child ? i think u should look da mirror
only when im drunk and bored ill try cause some drama and tease ppl on forums but i normally fail ^^
but what i dont understand is that why u even play this game you cry over a free game cuz some lower level player had better luck with some anni packs and got so called end game boots or smt..all u do here is that u just cry how bad this game is and how gm's dun care..that kind of bs normally coming from childs mouth

Solandri - Heavens Tear

david12345 wrote: »

Then you are a fool.

In the long run, each anni pack is worth about 700-800k, due to the tokens it gives; not to mention the chance of getting a multi-million item.

No, at the prevailing token prices, each anniversary pack was only worth about 200-250k during the event. The chance of the multi-million coin items was so small they had little effect on the overall value, and it'd be foolish to make plans based on getting one.

Yes in the long-run they're probably worth 700-800k, but you would've had to have bought them, then sat on them until October to realize those gains. Because of the low token price during the event, sinking your money into the packs and immediately selling the tokens on average resulted in a loss. Repeat it often enough and you'd lose all your money. Several people in this thread have already stated that that's exactly what happened to them.

The way to make money during this event was to buy the tokens all the people opening the packs were selling for super-cheap. Convert them into items like flawless shards, and sell those for a profit. Reinvest some of that profit into more cheap tokens. A lot of people doing this made enough money to outright buy the best prizes for tens or hundreds of millions of coin without ever opening a single pack. (I had philosophical issues with it since the middleman in this case is not assuming any risk, so I didn't do it. But it was pretty obvious that it was what most of the big rollers were doing.)

Edit: A simpler way to put it is that your idea would have generated a 100% return once. If you bought a 400k pack during the event, you could have sold it for 800k in October.

If you did what I described and invested 400k in tokens on day 1 and resold at a modest 10% profit every day, reinvesting the money into more tokens, you would've ended the month with 7 million.

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

david12345 wrote: »

Then you are a fool.

In the long run, each anni pack is worth about 700-800k, due to the tokens it gives; not to mention the chance of getting a multi-million item.

By calling people names you just make yourself look dumb.

The people who sold Gold for 400k were able to buy 30 Tokens with the proceeds. Meanwhile, people who opened the packs got 15 Tokens.

So by all means, if your definition of "fool", is "person who got twice as much", then there's a lot of fools out there. Rich fools, mind you.

david12345

Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »

No, at the prevailing token prices, each anniversary pack was only worth about 200-250k during the event. The chance of the multi-million coin items was so small they had little effect on the overall value, and it'd be foolish to make plans based on getting one.

Yes in the long-run they're probably worth 700-800k, but you would've had to have bought them, then sat on them until October to realize those gains. Because of the low token price during the event, sinking your money into the packs and selling the tokens on average resulted in a loss. Repeat it often enough and you'd lose all your money. Several people in this thread have already stated that that's exactly what happened to them.

The way to make money during this event was to buy the tokens all the people opening the packs were selling for super-cheap. Convert them into items like flawless shards, and sell those for a profit. Reinvest some of that profit into more cheap tokens. A lot of people doing this made enough money to outright buy the best prizes for tens or hundreds of millions of coin without ever opening a single pack. (I had philosophical issues with it since the middleman in this case is not assuming any risk, so I didn't do it. But it was pretty obvious that it was what most of the big rollers were doing.)

Few things...

First of the chance of a multimillion item. Its much more likely then you make out. I averaged one per about 30-40 packs, which more then made up for any losses I made reselling tokens. Yes I too used the resell tokens, buy more packs method.. more on that later.

Citrines... I tried this method as well, but it just did not work as well as you have described.

The price of flawless citrines have been about 200k (on sanc). The price people selling the tokens, at lowest, was about 13k.

14x13k would be 182k

So you would make 18k per flawless citrien you sold. Due to the huge number of people doing the same as you, you would not have that many buyers unless you pushed your prices down even further.

How someone did this enough to afford some rares is beyond me.

As for buying and reslling tokens... I had about 100m at the start of the event; and I spent it all on packs. In the end, I came out with 2 lunar insigs and (through reslling and getting more rares, reselling) 6570 tokens, which I presume will sell for around at least 300m, tripling my starting money without even selling my insigs (which I shall keep).

Did I win off my gamble? I do say I did. You are right about being foolish trusting your luck, however, you are wrong about the chance of mulitmillion items in this event. Its more likely then you think.

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »

By calling people names you just make yourself look dumb.

The people who sold Gold for 400k were able to buy 30 Tokens with the proceeds. Meanwhile, people who opened the packs got 15 Tokens.

So by all means, if your definition of "fool", is "person who got twice as much", then there's a lot of fools out there. Rich fools, mind you.

Yes, and they would lose a chance to get the rare items in doing so. If you are going to try to be a smartass, then at least take care of the elephant in the room.

Vinat - Sanctuary

Brael - Dreamweaver wrote: »

12 sage skill books, from adv mystical page turnins (did the full set, 360 pages/5400 tokens in the case of venos)

hm thats odd cuz last time i checked this was not yet implemented.. and last check was.. sometime during the "event"

Solandri - Heavens Tear

david12345 wrote: »

First of the chance of a multimillion item. Its much more likely then you make out. I averaged one per about 30-40 packs, which more then made up for any losses I made reselling tokens.

That sounds about right. From the figures I collected from the packs I and guildmates opened, the chance of getting luck tokens was about 97%-98%. Brael sent me some figures he collected based on the Duke shouts the first couple weeks, and basically it looks like the pwdatabase entry for the packs was pretty accurate,

http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/18412

except they replaced the low-end prizes with luck tokens and a 2% chance for best luck tokens. At 5 million each and a 2% chance, the best luck tokens inflated the pack value by about 100k. The platinum charms by about 25k. The rares (0.05% - 0.02%) each only added about 5k-10k to the average value of a pack.

Subtract these from the 400k purchase price of a pack and you end up with 200k, which works out to a resale value of the luck tokens of 13k-14k. Which is precisely what their market price was for most of the event. No big surprise there - the market works.

So on average you would break even from opening the packs. But when the odds of winning a rare prize are so slim (a bit less than 0.5%), it is much easier to lose than it is to win. A binomial expansion of a 0.5% win rate with $200 spent yields the following:
0 rares: 36.7%
1 rare: 36.9%
2 rares: 18.4%
3 rares: 6.1%
4 rares: 1.5%
5 rares: 0.3%
more rares: 0.056%

In other words, you had a 36.7% chance to lose, a 36.9% chance to break even, and a 26.4% chance to come out ahead. Those are not odds I'd recommend playing.

If you were only able to spend $100, the numbers are even worse:
0 rares: 60.6%
1 rare: 30.4%
2 rares: 7.6%
3 rares: 1.2%
4 rares: 0.15%
5 rares: 0.01%
more rares: 0.001%

$100 and you have a 60% chance to come out a loser!

If you started off with a large amount of coin/gold as you did, then it would give more room for the law of averages to assert itself, and you would have a better chance of coming out of the event break-even or with a win. With 500 gold, your chances are:

0 rares: 8.2%
1 rare: 20.5%
2 rares: 25.7%
3 rares: 21.4%
4 rares: 13.4%
5 rares: 6.7%
more rares: 4.16%

Citrines... I tried this method as well, but it just did not work as well as you have described.

The price of flawless citrines have been about 200k (on sanc). The price people selling the tokens, at lowest, was about 13k.

Please, citrines were so obvious that everyone would have been trying them. So of course the market would've been saturated, depressing the sell price. You had to be thoughtful about what you sold and where you sold it. Pet food represented the largest drop from pre-event prices, so people were more likely to buy it without questioning it. Sales were slow but steady. I was able to recoup nearly all the money I spent on loser packs by converting to and selling the perfect cookies. (Before I quit opening packs and started buying tokens.)

Yes, and they would lose a chance to get the rare items in doing so.

That is the kind of thinking that keeps lotteries in business. And any trivial analysis will show that on average, you lose money by playing the lottery.

With the long duration of this event, it was correspondingly easier to play the resale market for small but guaranteed returns. A guildmate did just this and turned 2 million into 50 million in the first two weeks. He ended up with enough money to buy 5400 tokens and get the 12-pack of Sage veno skills. It was easy, and it was practically guaranteed if you put some thought into it. Much safer than the gambling route you advocate.

Grievence - Sanctuary

Brought about 12 anniversary packs with ingame coin and got 1 plat spirit charm, 1 perfect luck token and a load of normal luck tokens which i traded for oracles, i think i was quite lucky in what i got.

Bartack - Heavens Tear

i spent about $300 in gold (didnt buy it, got from the "earn zen" option from free trials, not a penny spent) opened all of my packs, and got 6 best tokens, wing trophy for cape, citrine gem, lunar weapon insignia and lots of tokens. Want to go the demon barb route, so ditching the lunar and using the $$$ and tokens to make my tt90 gx's and other gold tt gear from chips. Worth it? you bet, it was free for me b:victory

david12345

Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »

In other words, you had a 36.7% chance to lose, a 36.9% chance to break even, and a 26.4% chance to come out ahead. Those are not odds I'd recommend playing.

What is the chance that that 26.4% might have a 100m item? Have you worked that out? I'm curious. Are you treating all rares the same?

Please, citrines were so obvious that everyone would have been trying them. So of course the market would've been saturated, depressing the sell price. You had to be thoughtful about what you sold and where you sold it. Pet food represented the largest drop from pre-event prices, so people were more likely to buy it without questioning it. Sales were slow but steady. I was able to recoup nearly all the money I spent on loser packs by converting to and selling the perfect cookies. (Before I quit opening packs and started buying tokens.)

I merely mentioned citrines because you were the one who mentioned flawless shards. Pet food market was also saturated.

Perphaps the server you play on would affect what you might have sold.

That is the kind of thinking that keeps lotteries in business. And any trivial analysis will show that on average, you lose money by playing the lottery.

With the long duration of this event, it was correspondingly easier to play the resale market for small but guaranteed returns. A guildmate did just this and turned 2 million into 50 million in the first two weeks. He ended up with enough money to buy 5400 tokens and get the 12-pack of Sage veno skills. It was easy, and it was practically guaranteed if you put some thought into it. Much safer than the gambling route you advocate.

Mind describing in detail how your guildmate did this?

Poison - Heavens Tear

I did a lot of selling of items I got, rebought packs, reopened, etc... though not near as much as EGiFZ did.

5 lobsters
1 citrine
30 Best luck
2 Diamond of Dragon
4 Plat Guardian Charm
1 Plat Spirt Charm
2 Lunar Weapon
1 Warsong Belt
3 heavenrage boot
1 Aerogear thingy
1 Fancy Feathers

With the tokens: I have tons of Perfect Shards, enough socket stones to fill all of my equp, all of my 79 and sage skill books, tons of pet food, a dozen guardian scrolls, a couple hundred telecoustics...

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

david12345 wrote: »

Yes, and they would lose a chance to get the rare items in doing so. If you are going to try to be a smartass, then at least take care of the elephant in the room.

Me? A smartass? Thanks for the compliment!

But hey, c'mon, you gotta admit you look pretty silly on this one (well, OK, you don't gotta admit anything, but that's your choice). You started off by arguing that it's foolish to have not opened the packs because by not doing so you'd lose half their value "due to the tokens it gives", when in fact the exact opposite is true.

So when your error was pointed out to you, you switched to the argument that the chance of a rare item is what makes it worth opening the packs. Nice move, but not your original argument at all, which was false.

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »

That is the kind of thinking that keeps lotteries in business. And any trivial analysis will show that on average, you lose money by playing the lottery.

With the long duration of this event, it was correspondingly easier to play the resale market for small but guaranteed returns. A guildmate did just this and turned 2 million into 50 million in the first two weeks.

This is exactly the same conclusion I came to after the first week of the sale.

I made a profit at first by buying Gold and opening ~60 packs and getting several valuable rares to sell, but upon further analysis it became clear that it made more sense to go with the sure-thing of doubling my buying power by buying Tokens instead of opening the packs. I suspected that opening the packs might have, on-average, perhaps have given a slightly better return, by why take an unnecessary and unknown gamble when double the return is a guaranteed option instead?

The net result is that I ended up making a total profit of about ~100million on the event, plus I also bought a Scroll of Tome, although I admit my heart was only half in it this time. I suspect somebody with more dedication could have easily made far, far more than I did.

Solandri - Heavens Tear

david12345 wrote: »

What is the chance that that 26.4% might have a 100m item? Have you worked that out? I'm curious. Are you treating all rares the same?

I already told you - the packs were, on average, break-even. The market correctly priced the value of those rare prizes into the sale value of the booby prize - the luck tokens. More valuable rare prizes => lower price of luck tokens.

But being on average break-even doesn't mean it's a risk worth taking. A lottery where you have a 1 in a million chance to win $1 million and a 999,999 chance to win nothing is break-even. But I would hardly recommend playing it as since you'd only have a 0.0001% chance to win. The casinos in Las Vegas and State-run lotteries make billions of dollars a year off of people who don't understand this.

The numbers I gave you were to demonstrate the odds that you'd wind up losing a lot of money playing this break-even game with the Anniversary packs. For small sums of money (less than $100) the chances that you'd lose money were substantial. If you want to make money with less risk, you need to find something where your odds are better than break-even, and there is little to no risk of losing.

I merely mentioned citrines because you were the one who mentioned flawless shards. Pet food market was also saturated.

I mentioned flawless shards because most people didn't notice flawless sapphires took fewer tokens to make than the other two flawless shards. b:chuckle Sales of those were slower than pet food, but I was actually able to make back more than the cost of the pack by selling those.

Mind describing in detail how your guildmate did this?

That's for him to reveal if he wishes. I consider what people tell me in private to be confidential, other than the general facts and lessons drawn from it. Edit: I will say that it was exactly what I described earlier. He found something which could be made with tokens for substantially less than the market price of that item at that time. He bought tokens, made the items, sold them, bought more tokens, rinse and repeat.

david12345

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »

Me? A smartass? Thanks for the compliment!

I said trying to be a smartass... with an emphasis on trying and failing. Also, personally I wouldn't take being called a smartass as a compliment, but thats just me.

But hey, c'mon, you gotta admit you look pretty silly on this one (well, OK, you don't gotta admit anything, but that's your choice). You started off by arguing that it's foolish to have not opened the packs because by not doing so you'd lose half their value "due to the tokens it gives", when in fact the exact opposite is true.

False? If thats true, then how come I have more then quadripled my starting money? No one has yet explained how they made these countless millions reselling and unless you describe in detail what you did, then I say you are talking bs.

So please enlighten me.

So when your error was pointed out to you, you switched to the argument that the chance of a rare item is what makes it worth opening the packs. Nice move, but not your original argument at all, which was false.

I didn't switch my argument at all. My very 1st post in this thread said you lose money by selling gold and not opening packs.

I merely stated right form the begining that you are losing money by denying yourself a chance at some nice items.

Also you must take into account just how much these rare items will cost in 1-2 months time.

That's for him to reveal if he wishes. I consider what people tell me in private to be confidential, other than the general facts and lessons drawn from it. Edit: I will say that it was exactly what I described earlier. He found something which could be made with tokens for substantially less than the market price of that item at that time. He bought tokens, made the items, sold them, bought more tokens, rinse and repeat.

Confidential huh? A likely story. The event is over, spit it out.

Oh and about the shards, I think everyone noticed that, but as you say the sales were slow, too slow for most. I think you severely exagerate your gains.

Lightaine - Dreamweaver

*Waits for Dragoonz post*

eatwithspoons

Calm the flames please b:thanks

IceJazmin - Heavens Tear

<walks away with the can of gasoline>

Dang, I was about to make a killing by selling it for more than I got it for (thanks to the tokens)....

peacefulsilence

A whole... pile... of... NOTHING! b:angry

Nearly 300 packs and only 1 of them wasn't a token a of luck.

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary

david12345 wrote: »

False? If thats true, then how come I have more then quadripled my starting money? No one has yet explained how they made these countless millions reselling and unless you describe in detail what you did, then I say you are talking bs.

I've been explaining it the whole event, actually ==> Buy Tokens at 13k, make items, resell items for 10% markup, repeat.

The result was double the money every 7.5 buy/sell cycles, guaranteed. (Except, in reality 10% was a minimum. 15% markup was closer to the actual average, so I was doubling my money about every 5 cycles.)

The problems I ran into were lack of playing time and market saturation. Plus, I also gave up a huge chunk of my investment capital at one point in order to buy a Scroll of Tome. That really hurt my income potential.

david12345 wrote: »

I didn't switch my argument at all. My very 1st post in this thread said you lose money by selling gold and not opening packs.

It sounds like you chose path A (accept the risk of the packs), which worked out well for you, so you're assuming path B (go with the sure-thing of double the return on Tokens) was a mistake. Except it wasn't a mistake, because the returns were pretty much the same either way.

The difference was a question of risk. It's true that some people who chose to risk the packs made more than those who chose to buy Tokens, but on the other hand some people who chose the packs were unlucky and are now wishing they hadn't.

Which, by the way, is exactly what the person you called a "fool" said happened to them.

Brael - Dreamweaver

Vinat - Sanctuary wrote: »

hm thats odd cuz last time i checked this was not yet implemented.. and last check was.. sometime during the "event"

It's implemented in the sense that the quest works. It was unimplemented in the sense that the pages weren't available. Tokens made them available.

Alerean - Heavens Tear

This is from about 700-750 packs, I forget the exact number.

1 Lunar Weapon Insignia
2 Lunar Ornament Insignia
1 Heavenwear Boots
2 Helm of Holy Punishment
1 Garnet Gem
1 Primeval Stone
1 Diamond of Tiger
1 Fancy Feathers
3 HP Charms
2 MP Charms
2 Badges of Bravery
17 Best of Luck Tokens

Coraline - Lost City

I opened about 5 packs..I bought gold from the AH, on the first one I got a token of best luck...and then opened a few more and only got the tokens of luck..after that i stopped.

LloydAsplund - Sanctuary

70 packs of normal tokens. Q_Q

Deceptistar - Sanctuary

Got 200 packs first try and had
-1 lunar ornament ring
-1 best of luck
-1 plat charm
-1 sapphire gem
-bunch of normal luck tokens

unsatisfied by the lack of prizes, I purchased a tad more zhen, ignored the packs, and just sold gold on the AH for absurd prices. The zhen to coin exchange alone wielded me enough to buy for no higher than 25-40M:
-heavenrage boots
-anniv. pack lunar cape
-anniv. pack normal cape
-another lunar ornament ring
-brilliant plume wings

At the last few hours before packs disappeared gold was about 450k per. I bought 100 anniv. packs and sold them later for 600k a piece. (thus 1gold=600k) I didnt want to jack it up too much because the more i drag the sale on, less and less pple tend to stay interested.

All in all I am quite satisfied. Im left with a load of tokens that provide, cube tickets, do-alls, shards, socket stones, teleport stones, teleacoustics, oracles and much more, plus anniversary gear and enough funding coin wise to make TT99.

Singsung - Sanctuary

some of you guys are really lucky. I ended up with 11311 tokens from opening the anni packs. I knew they would climb in price so I sat on them. 11311/15 tokens per anni pack = 754 packs just about. I kept everything I got from the packs except for best luck tokens. I used them to get the notes and reinvest into buying packs. I got like 5 platinum charms, 1 wing trophy, 3 badges, and 3 gems. No idea why my luck sucked so bad but I see it as free gamble since I expect to get at least 30-35k per token after event. I started with 70 mil and bought the d-orbs on sale and then resold those at 100k+ during event and bought tokens. If tokens sell for 30k per, I'll end up with 339mil. Not bad eh..

Those that bought tokens from others for cheap probably grinning real hard now. b:laugh

LloydAsplund - Sanctuary

Singsung - Sanctuary wrote: »

some of you guys are really lucky. I ended up with 11311 tokens from opening the anni packs. I knew they would climb in price so I sat on them. 11311/15 tokens per anni pack = 754 packs just about. I kept everything I got from the packs except for best luck tokens. I used them to get the notes and reinvest into buying packs. I got like 5 platinum charms, 1 wing trophy, 3 badges, and 3 gems. No idea why my luck sucked so bad but I see it as free gamble since I expect to get at least 30-35k per token after event. I started with 70 mil and bought the d-orbs on sale and then resold those at 100k+ during event and bought tokens. If tokens sell for 30k per, I'll end up with 339mil. Not bad eh..

Those that bought tokens from others for cheap probably grinning real hard now. b:laugh

gimme some cash you rich boy. I spent all my money lol. Only thing I have left is 300 d. orbs.

I_missU - Dreamweaver

i open 5 packs and all normal token of luck xD

Foxx - Heavens Tear

Bought about 50 gold the day before the event started for about 170k. Used that to buy packs, and got plain tokens every time. So I just started buying tokens with a buy catshop, and making money on TT.

I now have about 8k tokens and I'm not sure of my next move. Was tempted to buy the sage scroll pack, but I'd like to have tons of capital ready for the next event.

Assuming I wait a week and sell my tokens for 50k, I will have turned about 100m into 400m.

Julietoo - Sanctuary

I didn't buy any ani packs at all. I started with about 550k in coins and was a little late buying gold before the prices jump so i didn't end up buying gold.

I did however take my 550k and buy tokens off all of you for 12k. on the second day I took my 42 tokens and traded them in for flawless citrines. (14 tokens/ per citrine) I then sold my 3 citrines for around 220-250k (whatever ppl would pay at the time). on the first day I think i made around 100-150k. I repeated this process every day for the month of october slowly growing my collection of tokens and citrines. By then end of tonight I'm now holding over 1000 tokens. Tokens are worth about 17k right now so that means they are worth over 17 Million. When the sale is over the price of tokens will rise at which time i will cash many of them in.