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5% chance... is it bugged?

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  • tonyswutonyswu Member Posts: 223 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    Don't listen to those who pretend they know what they are talking about. They may indeed know what they are talking about, but what they are talking about has nothing to do with this.

    This game has trending rolls, simple as that. If you fail multiple times in a row, wait a bit before trying again.
  • drey181drey181 Member Posts: 15 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    It took me 13 times before my artifact upgrade to epic.... I swear it's rigged. 50% my ***.
  • thefabricantthefabricant Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 5,248 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    The probability for your failure is low, but there:

    p<success>= .05 ==> p<fail> = .95

    So to get you result's - fail this 75 times in a row - chance:

    p<fail>^75 = .95^75 = .0213

    Or: of 47 attempts to do that upgrade, one will go as awkward as yours. Other way round is valid, too: in 98% of cases you should have had your success. But "impossible" it is not.

    You know its funny how I pointed this out early on in this thread and its funny that no one listened.
  • vinceent1vinceent1 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,264 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    bioshrike wrote: »
    This is one reason why we need to see the roll results for these types of things...

    thank you, this is constructive post here
  • noetic2noetic2 Member Posts: 150 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    burkaanc wrote: »
    used about 25 wards for 10% chance on my weapon

    might just be that ppl in this thread are the unlucky ones, doubt ppl getting on 1st try would come here :D
    It took me 22 wards at 10%. And I've batted a thousand on some items when I was supposed to have something like a 60% chance. Don't think, for whatever reason, that the odds are always listed correctly.
  • rayrdanrayrdan Member Posts: 5,410 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    noetic2 wrote: »
    It took me 22 wards at 10%. And I've batted a thousand on some items when I was supposed to have something like a 60% chance. Don't think, for whatever reason, that the odds are always listed correctly.

    used 150 preservation for 4 legendary upgrades and 3 rank 11 starting from rank 10.
    not happy but definitely in the average result.
    the problem arises when you waste 60 preservation to get a rank 6.
  • diogene0diogene0 Member Posts: 2,894 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    Some people did test the rng on preview and it does what it says, ie a 5% chance is really 5%. Bad luck happens. There will inevitably be people with an unusual number of attempts before a success, given how many people play this game. They're also more likely to come here and complain.

    Something making the RNG more forgiving after x attempts would be welcome though.
  • schietindebuxschietindebux Member Posts: 4,292 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    my personal experience yesterday : I sunk 14 wards in a 25% upgrade chance rank 7 to 8, 14 ! and it still did not work
    cryptics math is broken s.h.i.t. like lots of things in game
    the math to fail like this is: 3/4 ^14 = 1,7% so i just do not have much luck, hmm Cräptic?
    the OP with 75 x5% is nearly same 2,1% chance to have this special kind of "luck", and you did succed I didn´t :(
    no don´t tell me about testing the RNG, its broken as lots of things and everyone knows it, so don´t defend this cräp please, since my personal testings of RNG shows that its craäp
    I experience these epic fails not the first time, and the background is obvious-pay more money to get equip upgraded , don´t be so naive
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