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Forums > Home› Neverwinter Discussion › General Discussion (PC)

5% chance... is it bugged?

vinceent1vinceent1 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,264 Arc User
edited May 2015 in General Discussion (PC)
i just spend 75 preservation wards on upgrade and still has no success. is it bugged or what? should i spend all i have on preservation wards?

its mathematically impossible still dont have success yet
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  • ph33rm3ph33rm3 Member Posts: 549 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    vinceent1 wrote: »
    i just spend 75 preservation wards on upgrade and still has no success. is it bugged or what? should i spend all i have on preservation wards?

    its mathematically impossible still dont have success yet

    One Artifact with a 10% chance took me 36 wards yesterday. I was pretty angry.
  • quaranaxquaranax Member Posts: 105 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    I was upgrading an artifact using pres wards, it was a 50% chance, and I had to do it 9 times.

    So i really think those numbers are absolute nonsense.

  • thefabricantthefabricant Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 5,248 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    vinceent1 wrote: »
    i just spend 75 preservation wards on upgrade and still has no success. is it bugged or what? should i spend all i have on preservation wards?

    its mathematically impossible still dont have success yet

    mathematically impossible means 0% chance, the probability of it occuring like this, whilst unlikely, are not impossible. It is therefor mathematically unlikely.
    Our Imaginary Friends are better than yours.
  • UnknownUnknown
    edited May 2015
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  • UnknownUnknown
    edited May 2015
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  • vinceent1vinceent1 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,264 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    xsayajinx1 wrote: »
    You probably don't want to hear it, but you're wrong!

    It is mathematically possible to fail 75 times in a row with a chance of 5% success, because each attempt is independent from all others.
    Those 5% don't add up ... you won't have a sure success after 20 attempts.

    Regards

    yeah roll a dice and tell me how many times you get 1-5 from 100 in 75 attempts. repeat and tell me
  • quaranaxquaranax Member Posts: 105 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    vinceent1 wrote: »
    yeah roll a dice and tell me how many times you get 1-5 from 100 in 75 attempts. repeat and tell me

    I am presuming you either did not pay attention, did not comprehend, or have not yet studied mathematical statistics yet.

  • thefabricantthefabricant Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 5,248 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    vinceent1 wrote: »
    yeah roll a dice and tell me how many times you get 1-5 from 100 in 75 attempts. repeat and tell me

    What we doing here is called a Bernoulli distribution http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_distribution which will allow you to work out the probability. You will see that, after plugging the values into that formula the answer it pops out isn't 1. 0 means it will never occur, 1 means it will certainly occur and with the values you are giving me, unless n tended towards infinity, you will never have a 100% chance of succeeding.
    Our Imaginary Friends are better than yours.
  • UnknownUnknown
    edited May 2015
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  • thefabricantthefabricant Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 5,248 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    xsayajinx1 wrote: »
    I know what you want to prove here but you talk about average results.

    You're just a single person...Maybe others got lucky and were successful on 2nd or 3rd attempt.

    What I want to say is: you can't come up with average results according to you only. You have to count in some more players to prove your point.

    pffft, hypothesis testing is the least mathematical part of statistics and it is where stats lie the most :p
    Our Imaginary Friends are better than yours.
  • UnknownUnknown
    edited May 2015
    This content has been removed.
  • vinceent1vinceent1 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,264 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    yeah, i dont care about your statistics, take a dice and test yourself. when you roll a dice you have fair result, when you upgrading item you get game bull**** rng.

    its understandable i asked, if its not bugged, right, before i spend my last socks
  • UnknownUnknown
    edited May 2015
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  • UnknownUnknown
    edited May 2015
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  • vinceent1vinceent1 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,264 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    average results is every 20th works, if you are at 75 still unsuccess, its very far from average, looks like win a lottery but opposite direction
  • vinceent1vinceent1 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,264 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    teribad15 wrote: »
    used 132 wards to upgrade 1 of my artis to mythic the other one i got in 2nd attempt..

    so 134 wards and average is somehow 40, really interesting another far from average result
  • thefabricantthefabricant Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 5,248 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    vinceent1 wrote: »
    yeah, i dont care about your statistics, take a dice and test yourself. when you roll a dice you have fair result, when you upgrading item you get game bull**** rng.

    its understandable i asked, if its not bugged, right, before i spend my last socks
    If you have only a 5% chance at succeeding, then you got a 95% chance of failing on every roll. That means, the chances of succeeding by the nth attempt are 1-0.95^n. 5% is not cumulative, so after 20 rolls, it will not be 100%. Similar with dice rolls, the chances of succeeding by the nth attempt are 1-(5/6)^n. The difference is 5/6 is much smaller then 0.95, so you more likely to succeed in that scenario then this one. You had a 98% chance off succeeding by that 75th attempt, I am sorry to say, you are just one of that unlucky 2% You had a 65% chance to succeed by the 20th try, sorry to disillusion you.
    Our Imaginary Friends are better than yours.
  • UnknownUnknown
    edited May 2015
    This content has been removed.
  • thefabricantthefabricant Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 5,248 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    magenubbie wrote: »
    I should certainly hope things are not as you say. There's nothing in the tooltip about average probability. It's MY probability that's displayed. If other players can influence my success rate there's something seriously wrong with this game.

    That said, I'm guessing you're somewhat right when you talked about average rolls, just not in the way you think. Consider:
    We roll 100s if not 1000s "D100s" a day. Every single damage roll, every single chest we open, every mob we kill. It's all a "D100" in the end. In that light, having to roll a 5 or less at that very specific moment suddenly looks far more daunting doesn't it? It might make you wonder how many attempts to proc LS you've made and how many of those succeeded. Or how often Cold Shoulder procced when you got hit.
    Yet we succeed at it so many times during our average playing. 5% chance to proc Lifesteal, x% change to proc Y.. Count those successes and tell me that you never succeed against low odds. We succeed all the time. Only because the rolls are done in a much slower succession than while fighting a boss hoping to proc LS, doesn't mean it doesn't happen.

    Magenubbie what we mean by hypothesis testing is determining how accurate that 5% is. In order to do that, you can't just take the results of one person, you have to take a large sample.
    Our Imaginary Friends are better than yours.
  • blackxxwolf3blackxxwolf3 Member Posts: 1,539 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    yeah i agree it sucks but what can you do you know? i dont think its bugged btw.
  • vinceent1vinceent1 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,264 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    thefabricant wrote: »
    Magenubbie what we mean by hypothesis testing is determining how accurate that 5% is. In order to do that, you can't just take the results of one person, you have to take a large sample.

    hope we get it in this thread. hope this thread will be unharmed, you know....
  • vinceent1vinceent1 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,264 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    upgrade - 105th attempt successfull, this is insane. even in this small thread there are two people over 100 attempts on 5% chance
  • burkaancburkaanc Member Posts: 2,186 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    used about 25 wards for 10% chance on my weapon

    might just be that ppl in this thread are the unlucky ones, doubt ppl getting on 1st try would come here :D
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  • eldartheldarth Member Posts: 4,494 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    No it is not bugged.

    You are merely victim of mistakenly believing in Gambler's Fallacy.

    You could flip a coin a thousand times and still get heads every time.
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  • thefabricantthefabricant Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 5,248 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    burkaanc wrote: »
    used about 25 wards for 10% chance on my weapon

    might just be that ppl in this thread are the unlucky ones, doubt ppl getting on 1st try would come here :D

    Yes, which is why this sample is useless either way :p In order to do an accurate test of the hypothesis that the chance is not 5%, you need a RANDOM sample of the playerbase, not only the sample of people who are complaining because they have failed lots. You would need to say take 200 players at random, get them to perform the same experiment in the same circumstances and then record the results. Its not going to be easy for you to prove/disprove that 5% by scientific methods.
    Our Imaginary Friends are better than yours.
  • thefabricantthefabricant Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 5,248 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    eldarth wrote: »
    No it is not bugged.

    You are merely victim of mistakenly believing in Gambler's Fallacy.

    You could flip a coin a thousand times and still get heads every time.

    Eldarth he might be right and it might not be 5%, but the method for properly testing it is so painful that we might as well, for all intents and purposes, assume that the 5% is correct and move on.
    Our Imaginary Friends are better than yours.
  • oldbaldyoneoldbaldyone Member Posts: 1,840 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    The issue is, you never remember those times it took you LESS than what you expected. You only remember when it takes more than expected.

    I'm betting if you kept track of all your rolls just for upgrades, the amount of times you are below average would more or less equal out to the number of times you are above average.

    Just like I remember the times I got caught speeding far more than the times I got away with it.
  • bioshrikebioshrike Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 4,729 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    This is one reason why we need to see the roll results for these types of things...
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  • generaldiomedesgeneraldiomedes Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 207 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    i did two in a row first time with only 30% success ..
  • eldartheldarth Member Posts: 4,494 Arc User
    edited May 2015
    RNG Tests: http://neverwinter.gamepedia.com/RNG_Tests
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