Why Coalescent Ward price doesn't rise up?

carletto75 · December 2013

Hi all,
now that Coalescent Wards are (very!!!) rare, and you can obtain them for selling, only from 200 tarmalune trade bars or 1000 ZEN (about 400K AD), I really can't understand why in the AH they are priced between 110K-125K...

Any thoughts on this?

tripsofthrymr · December 2013

I suspect it's because they can still be found in the 7 celestial coin chest. Though it is bound, players that actually want to use the wards can still get them. Combine that with the fact that fewer coalescent wards are needed under the new system, and you have somewhat lower supply meeting somewhat lower demand.

jintortle · December 2013

Sometimes they are. It will depend on the amount that people have stocked up + remember that AH is competitive and people want to sell for AD.
I have sold a Coalescent ward for 150K - So it just depends on the time of week.

baylen76 · December 2013

It's because the majority of people mark-limited these days, not ward-limited.

You don't need a roof if you can't get the walls up.

carletto75 · December 2013

So it's ok, but I'm expecting Coalescent Wards touching 200/300k AD, in the next few weeks...

zebular · December 2013

. . . . . It's because their value is dictated by the price of Zen/AD on the Astral Diamond Exchange, which is a player driven market that bottoms at 50 AD per Zen and caps at 500 AD per Zen.

carletto75 · December 2013

Of course.
Btw a coalescent ward is priced 1000 Zen in Zen Market, so at the actual exchange value, seems more correct have coalescent ward priced at 420K AD... I try to understand, because atm there are price really cheap and I'd buy a lot of them!

wiserwithage · December 2013

At the moment, a lot of people have a stock pile of Coalescent Wards from before the change. You couldn't always get a decent price after the server merger (compared to the days in Mindflayer), so I wouldn't be surprised if people were just sitting on stacks in the hopes of the price raising. Within the next month, the demand is going to slowly increase as people start to realize that the 7 day chests now have an even worse Coalescent drop rate. When this happens, the rising demand is going to finally affect the supply to the point that we'll see the prices start to significantly raise. But until then, it seems like people just haven't collectively realized just how rare Coalescent Wards will be within the next 6 months.

aeragar47 · December 2013

I agree with baylen76. I think the main reason is that most people don't have the marks to actually do the upgrades due to the price/rarity of marks. So there's a lot less demand for coalescent wards because less people have marks to upgrade with.

beckylunatic · December 2013

Part of it is that people are opening enough of the current batch of lockboxes going after the artifact packs that there's a steady supply of ones bought for trade bars.

If future lockboxes are less enticing, you might actually see more of an effect. But that does also need to be adjusted for demand.

dkcandy · December 2013

Simple supply and demand.

Once the supply dry's up the price will steadily increase or if someone buys up the entire market the price will sky rocket.

syka08 · December 2013

Pretty much what a lot of people have been saying hold true. I don't expect Coal wards to drop down in the coming weeks. I think what we're seeing is pretty much the stable price at about 120k +/- 20k depending. No one in their right mind should have ever purchased a Coal ward from the Zen store, so while it's possible to base price off of that ceiling, it's not very practical at all.

As stated, the current lockbox is returning its value that you put into it pretty decently. Were the T.bar jackpot to be removed from it and other previous lockboxes, then you might start seeing Coal ward prices start reaching near 200k or so, I would think.

So those reasons, plus the lesser need (and therefore demand) for them, things are just staying stable which really is a good thing.

ambisinisterr · December 2013

There's a lot of lockboxes being opened at this point in time.

The Tarmalaun Store coalescent wards are still unbound so my best guess is that the amount of lockboxes being opened plays a huge role in the value of the lockboxes currently in the market.

j0shi82 · December 2013

There has been a key sale, so trade bars are all over the place, people anticipated the new system by hording them and the demand has gone down majorly (85 to 15 for a Perfect enchant). In my opinion the price will go up at some point though, so might be clever to get them while they are cheap.

kaoswp · December 2013

Dude... Don't bring stuff like this up... Just enjoy the cheep prices man.

syka08 · December 2013

kaoswp wrote: »

Dude... Don't bring stuff like this up... Just enjoy the cheep prices man.

Er... there's nothing wrong with wanting to understand the Why. Asking this question isn't going to cause prices to shoot up. Not even the 40+ pages of people gripping that the prices of C.wards were going to shoot up impacted the price for too long =P.

And as j0shi82 said, it may be beneficial to buy some up here and there where you can at these prices. At the very least you shouldn't have much issue mostly breaking even in a few months if the price doesn't grow.

ladysylvia · December 2013

The price won't be go up due the less need. 1/6 normal need can't be compensate by maybe 3x of the need. And that the CW fall away from Bots and altfarmer won't hurt much the supply route.

nwnghost · December 2013

Probably because no rich guy has come along and systematically bought out all the low priced wards to create a permanent higher price.

Compare that to some crappy (stat wise) Ancient belts. 2 days ago they were going for 15-20k each, then the next morning I check AH and a few people seem to have bought ALL of them out (only about 40 belts worth each) and relisted them at 80-100k each (you can tell because its the same person's name and if one gets bought, they just list another).Newly posted ones by other people obviously just undercut by 1-2k a time rather than going by the old value.

beckylunatic · December 2013

nwnghost wrote: »

Probably because no rich guy has come along and systematically bought out all the low priced wards to create a permanent higher price.

While what you describe certainly does happen, it would be difficult to do with wards because like I said, there's a very steady stream of them entering the market from tradebars from lockboxes. You can buy them all and try to sell at markup, but if the supply is large, then you're just going to keep getting undercut.

I get the impression that T2 rings and belts are in more limited supply these days because fewer people are farming CN, which does create a place for someone to step in and try to jack it up. More's the pity for anyone who was looking to buy.

walk2k · December 2013

probably because a lot of people, like me, have given up on upgrading enchants past level 5 or 6 due to the insane new costs

beckylunatic · December 2013

walk2k wrote: »

probably because a lot of people, like me, have given up on upgrading enchants past level 5 or 6 due to the insane new costs

Has diddly squat to do with coalescent ward prices because nobody should have been wasting coalescent wards on number-ranked enchantments under either system.

petpet2 · December 2013

walk2k wrote: »

probably because a lot of people, like me, have given up on upgrading enchants past level 5 or 6 due to the insane new costs

no way. you didn't use Coal Wards to get to level 6 did you...

bajornorbert · December 2013

Prices of the coal wards will never reach 250k-300k. When ppl stop opening lockboxes like crazy, we will see a bit higher prices, but i don't think it will go past 150k. In the old system you needed 84 coal wards to make a perfect enchant, now you need 14, so even though a lot of people don't like the new system, it is much cheaper to upgrade if you do it the right way. Prices are driven by the supply/demand ratio.

zebular · December 2013

walk2k wrote: »

probably because a lot of people, like me, have given up on upgrading enchants past level 5 or 6 due to the insane new costs

. . . . . Ouch... you really should only use preservation wards for 5 to 7. Heck, I only use Coalescant Wards when I'm upgrading Weapon and Armor Enchants and I only use preservation wards from 6+. Sometimes I don't even use preservation wards going to 7.

tickdoff · December 2013

petpet2 wrote: »

no way. you didn't use Coal Wards to get to level 6 did you...

You NEVER need a coal ward to level an enchant to rank 10. You should only use coal wards to upgrade Weapon and armor shards and enchants.

Even at a 10% success rate you should be using preservation wards. P-wards cost about 3000 AD each, you would need to go through 40 of them to equal the cost of a Coal Ward.

Why Coalescent Ward price doesn't rise up?

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