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Weaponsmiting success probability heavely bugged!
hinageshi79
Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 246 Bounty Hunter
I'm performing that rare level 10 weaponsmithing task, such us dagger +3, losngword +3, greatsword +3 and so on... I'm using 1 steel anvil and 3 mithral grindstone that result in a 44% of probability to gain a rank 3 result. I made 13 attempts and never "win".
44% is a good chance of success, it's extremely improbable that for 13 times I fall in that 56%... so the task are bugged. I'm tired to waste time and resource trying to gain that rank 3 result. Please fix it.
44% is a good chance of success, it's extremely improbable that for 13 times I fall in that 56%... so the task are bugged. I'm tired to waste time and resource trying to gain that rank 3 result. Please fix it.
Post edited by hinageshi79 on
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Is the probability bugged? maybe instead of 44 it count 4.4 lol
Are the entire tasks bugged? They stated I can obtein rank 3 result but it is not true?
I'm continuing to burn resources... very sad about this
Now I reached 20 try and all my cristal are gone... I will by other crystal in AH (if the price is honest) but not before this problem is solved.
less the %, bigger the chance of rolling in the fail zone.
meaning :
I farmed Heroic UP in WOW for about a year and some weeks with a 1.4 % drop on the blue proto drake. (only one run per day was allowed)
this means that during my 400-500 runs i should at least have seen it 3 times, or 4 times.
well i didnt, i saw it drop twice.
and i know people who werent farming for it that actually saw it drop a 4-5 times in their wowtime.
with a small 1.4 % I can run that dungeon forever and never actually get the thing. Cause the loot is always rollin in the negative/fail zone.
even if your % is 44% you can be unlucky and roll over a 100 times in the negative.
I know it sounds impossible, but it is.
try testing it with a 100 face die. You can roll that die a 100 times over number 44 to 100 and never hit a number under 44.
im the type of guy to be able to roll in the negative a bunch of times. I dont BELIEVE in luck, but i can say that my ratio in luck-things in life is really really low.
It is entirely probably to roll a 6 sided die 20 times and never get a 6, even though you have a 1 in 6 chance. It may seem impossible, when in fact the only way it could be is a) the dice is weighted to on side or b) the 6 doesn't exist.
In this case, what you're experiencing is just that. You're rolling a "dice" but not getting your desired outcome. And I realize I'm reiterating a lot of what @kershel is saying. Plus, sample pools of 20 or even a hundred are extremely small to draw any sort of conclusions from.
So, you're either calling the house out about being weighted against you (Which can be the case, sure.) Or, you're just experiencing the negative effects of RNG, where people who have a 1% chance to fuse shards into a lesser enchantment occasionaly exceed.
I'm betting on the later.
EDIT
lol forgive all my typo i'm writibg with smartphone but have some problems with this site.
please, devps, give a look on this bug couse ibought purple assets !
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just a correction... i'm speaking abiut level 10 (not 20) but the i suppose it is the same... i made more attempts yesterday (6 attemts) and again no win. I Looked again for that gemmed weapob +3 in ah an i found some so the chance is not 0% ( for me 0 win in 30 attemts) but should be very bugged. lol look at the comma , maybe for the system it is 4.4 instead of 44% lol.
I bought purple grindstones (ok it was my choice) and every attemts cost me 2000-2500 ad and 1h. aNd i have 2 toons
it is impossible to reach 100%. i havw 3 purple grindstone and 1 blue anvil and have 44%
While a 75% probability skill node failing ten times in a row is indeed possible. It doing so twice in one day looks distinctly fishy. A better PRNG with a more uniform distribution (while maintaining unpredictability) is sorely needed. Right now the horrible streakiness just makes people reach for their tinfoil hats.
The things that happen are so statistically unlikely on occasion that I am a little disappointed not to have also seen spontaneously created unicorns on my front lawn likewise
With the Fomorian crafting, if you stack up sufficient blue tools, you can give this (over) 100% chance of success and not worry about RNG hurting you. Just pay attention.
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I just logged off just before I came to have a quick look on here and noticed that the orb has 5 slots for tools and looking on the AH the blue ones are nice and cheap at the moment so at least that's one worry dealt with , thanks for the tip .
unlucky that rng works everytime against us and never in favour... 2.8% instead of 44% is vwry bad expecially if you think that ppl by assests to reach that 44%...