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About the economy...
laufwurm
Member, Neverwinter Beta Users Posts: 8 Arc User
Well, since everyone seems to post their personal thoughts and theories about how the economy cannot be fixed in this forum - I thought I might do just that as well.
Point is though: The economy doesn't need to be fixed - at least in the long term. Here is why:
1)
The 7-hour-rollback got rid of "most" fake/exploit-created AD.
2)
True, there was exploiting since day 1, so there's still a lot fake AD out there. Let's be negative and assume there's a LOT fake AD out there, maybe 1 billion AD - in numbers:
1.000.000.000 AD. But actually I think there's a lot less fake AD out there...
3)
Everyday there are new AD created from Rough AD and from first time sales of item drops.
Let's assume 30.000 new AD per active player. Let's also assume there are only 10.000 players actively playing per day. That would mean: 30.000.000 new AD per day. That's 30 million AD.
But I actually think it's a lot more (I for instance don't actively play everyday but do a short login to pray and do professions).
EDIT: I actually miscalculated that one - it's even 300.000.000 (300 million) new AD per day. This makes the following argument even stronger though. Thanks for correcting me @czarnykogut
4)
Let's look three months into the future (100 day approx). Maybe that's even around release - who knows?
Until then 3.000.000.000 additional AD will have been created. So the fake AD will only be arround one quarter of the economy. So okay, stuff might be 33% more expensive than it should be, but that's not that much:
5)
If a key in the AH was 50.000 AD "for real", you'd have to pay around 67.000 AD. That is manageable.
6)
Looking one year into the future the exploits won't have any noticeable effect whatsoever. That is if there are no new exploits turning up.
What else I wanted to say?
a)
PWE/Cryptic - please re-think your customer-information-policy. People are getting annoyed because you leave them in the dark. Please give out more information to keep the waves smooth. People have a right to know what is going on - especially if they paid money for your game.
b)
English is not my first language, so if some sentences sounded awkward or anything: Sorry about that!
c)
See you ingame everyone!
Point is though: The economy doesn't need to be fixed - at least in the long term. Here is why:
1)
The 7-hour-rollback got rid of "most" fake/exploit-created AD.
2)
True, there was exploiting since day 1, so there's still a lot fake AD out there. Let's be negative and assume there's a LOT fake AD out there, maybe 1 billion AD - in numbers:
1.000.000.000 AD. But actually I think there's a lot less fake AD out there...
3)
Everyday there are new AD created from Rough AD and from first time sales of item drops.
Let's assume 30.000 new AD per active player. Let's also assume there are only 10.000 players actively playing per day. That would mean: 30.000.000 new AD per day. That's 30 million AD.
But I actually think it's a lot more (I for instance don't actively play everyday but do a short login to pray and do professions).
EDIT: I actually miscalculated that one - it's even 300.000.000 (300 million) new AD per day. This makes the following argument even stronger though. Thanks for correcting me @czarnykogut
4)
Let's look three months into the future (100 day approx). Maybe that's even around release - who knows?
Until then 3.000.000.000 additional AD will have been created. So the fake AD will only be arround one quarter of the economy. So okay, stuff might be 33% more expensive than it should be, but that's not that much:
5)
If a key in the AH was 50.000 AD "for real", you'd have to pay around 67.000 AD. That is manageable.
6)
Looking one year into the future the exploits won't have any noticeable effect whatsoever. That is if there are no new exploits turning up.
What else I wanted to say?
a)
PWE/Cryptic - please re-think your customer-information-policy. People are getting annoyed because you leave them in the dark. Please give out more information to keep the waves smooth. People have a right to know what is going on - especially if they paid money for your game.
b)
English is not my first language, so if some sentences sounded awkward or anything: Sorry about that!
c)
See you ingame everyone!
Post edited by laufwurm on
0
Comments
33% more expensive isn't that bad?
Hey guys gas prices are gonna jump up another $1.50/gal for awhile, no biggie.
Big difference on real world item vs Virtual.
first of all the highest Zen/AD trade ALLOW is 500. using your gas example, that mean there is a hard cap on gas prices (which will NEVER happen)
buying stuff from NPC with AD also a fixed price (they are not going up or down) the only prices that will change is the AH and BoE Epics.
Please review my campaign and I'll return the favor.
Well, as I stated my numbers are made up. I just wanted to paint a worst-case-scenario to show that even then the economy would not be destroyed - just effected to a certain degree.
In any case: fear of hyperinflation is not justified. For explanation: hyperinflation like in 1920's Germany would been like this:
Every item would be four times as expensive as last week, which already was four times as expensive as the week before that.
That's what I call a destroyed economy.
Let's say gas cost a different currency than money (Gas Tokens), and it had no price cap, but there was a cap on the maximum amount of Gas Tokens you could receive per dollar. Then if gas prices jumped by 33%, would you be fine with the fact that you could still only exchange your money for the same amount of gas tokens, because, you know, it will fix itself eventually?
But it truth I don;t intend to sell it off. I figure on actually using it in-world.
The point is simply that Cryptic has done a pretty good job of cleansing the economy. The rest will clean itself. The remaining problem now are all the exploiter mules with a bazillion cats (and whatnot) in their inventories - which the devs are still in the process of hunting down and eradicating. The monetary cleansing has already behind (why the AD Exchange is opened now). The inventory objects cleansing is still in-progress, hence why the AH is not opened yet.
I'm often surprised how so many people just don;t realize how robust economies can be.
you come across as someone who cant make it in the 'outer' world so is trying to hack it on the internet
Wow dude, as I said before I know the numbers are made up - but not "out of thin air" - I tried picking numbers that make the situation seem worse (worst-case-scenario) to be able to convince as many people as possible. So, yeah - the numbers are made up but in a sensible way.
Also: Please refrain from personal insults - I'm just someone who enjoys the game and wanted to share his thoughts on the current situation with the community and maybe help some people get over their fears about the economy. As for "outer world" - I'm quite happy with where I am right now and don't need to "hack it on the internet" (what's that supposed to mean anyhow?). Best regards!
EDIT: My core-argument does also not rely on any of the posted numbers. I just put those in to give a somewhat realistic timeframe. The process I described is taking place anyhow and the economy is therefore fixing itself - might take longer or shorter than estimated though.
30.000 x 10.000 = 300.000.000 not 30m ...
Dude if u suck in math use calc its right there on start button->programs-> accesories : ))))
Ok, first off there is a 24k rough AD cap a day.
Secondly, with that being said, it would take you 2 days to get enough to buy 1 key at the current prices, or 50 days to buy a bag, as they are currently 1.2mil AD.
If you are a Founder Pack owner, getting the 600k AD in the package, you could buy 12 keys right now... and hey in another 25 days of not spending any AD on ID scrolls or anything else I could have a enough for a bag.
lol, this post killed me and probably killed the thread.
Woah, dude, you are right, I missed a "0" right there. But that actually makes the point I was trying make stronger.
There are two issues you mention here right now.
1) Yes, there is 24k-cap for refining rough-AD and sales of item drops don't add new AD to the economy. I made a mistake right there. But there's also another way new AD can be created: Rhix and his Coffer of Astral Diamonds.
2) Your bag-argument is actually not adressing the problems that where caused by the exploits but the pricing of the zen-store.
A bag of greater holding is 1000 zen. If we assume you get 1 zen for 300 AD, that's 300.000 AD. If you refine 24k everyday that's at least 12.5 days of playing. If you buy 1 zen for the maximum price of 500 AD, that's approximately 21 days (of hardcore gaming). It actually can't get more expensive than that, right?
1 billion AD may be a extremely conservative estimate. Remember this problem goes all the way back to a previous Cryptic game and was apparently reported in Closed beta several times. Consequently, you can bet that there were people (maybe even RMT) that exploited it on the quiet VERY heavily......
Your point is true. They did it on the 'quiet', and you can't get too heavy if you are quiet. Point proven when it was rampant on Sunday and they had no choice but to "shut 'er down!" until they fixed it. Light exploit (even at 1bil an hour since release) over 20 days is laughably easy to overcome. The amount that PLAYERS are generating is so crazy compared to the amount they could "fake" before it became too obvious. Someone told others Sat/Sun that they shouldn't have, and now their little loophole is gone.
The economy has fixed pricing on everyday needs. It has a fixed cap on conversion. People will still buy Zen and sell it for AD, no matter if they get 500 AD per or 150 per Zen. The AH will sell things overpriced, under-priced, and of value. People will continue to list things at 1AD bid, or miss a few 0's on their buyouts. Some people will be smart and not spend a penny while inflation is high, or "market fears" that are currently going around drive up prices and limit availability. In a week or two, we'll be back to nearly normal pricing. In a month, the remaining exploited AD/items won't have an impact on the economy that a regular user could notice.
Everyone also seems to miss the major point. Any 'exploiter' who was dumb enough to leave raw AD has probably already lost that AD. Cryptic can easily set to 0 in the DB when it shows u have past negative bids on auctions. That was easily done. The problem is the people who were smart and converted to Zen, or even smarter and bought up tons and tons of level 60 rare items or zen items, etc and move them to other accounts via legit looking sales. It's much harder to PW/Cryptic to do something about those without risking the 'injury' of the 'innocent' player at the end of the cycle. An even smarter 'exploiter' would have purchased Zen with real money on his destination accounts to make it even more of an issue to harm that account.
This is not the first virtual economy to have the doors blown off. It won't be the last. A wipe won't do HAMSTER besides lose players. 20 days is not the end of the world. Fixed prices, AD sinks, and good ole supply and demand will make this issue a distant memory in less than 30 days of free gameplay.
This occurred after the ban. It also occurred while the AH is not available. That creates a lower demand for AD since consumers have considerably less reasons to need it. It is what most would refer to as a buyers market. The demand curve has shifted and even though supply is still at its normal levels demand has dropped.
But here is why the op is actually right in his analysis. AD has been gaining value since day 1 of open beta. If these AD exploits had been effecting the marketplace AD would have been going up since day 1 and should have reached an all time low value the day the servers were taken down.
The exact opposite happened during the exploit. If the supply of AD had been as large as everyone had claimed AD would have been trading north of 500 per zen. Instead the exact opposite happened and the value of AD has gone up quite consistently on beholder server since open beta with caturday prices for AD at 371.
I have noticed price fluctuations during this time but after the first week it was rare seeing AD to Zen trading higher then 400. This leads me to believe that the percentage of players participating in the exploit was very low. Although a few may have ended up with millions of AD it never affected the overall gaming economy.
Coffer of AD is ONLY if you get a jeweled idol.
Yes to you other point, before the exploit to now the price on things in the AD exchange to Zen is almost doubling your time according to your example. 12.5 days to 21 days.... almost double due to the exploit and the price of things in the Zen Store.
Here's your sign.
The easy way to stop foolish manipulation by kids and gold sellers is to simply not buy things. But again, we go to the weak minded gamer that has to have something or has to try and circumvent fees or have their buddies try and corner the market on something and thus contribute to prices well above what items are worth or worth selling.
As for the ZEN mechanic, this is manipulated by the developers themselves. Like GW2 this game has to manipulate loot or convenience. The trick is to get people to buy ZEN using any means. This is done by developers artificially raising or lowering prices to make either the Ad or ZEN look more appealing. Anyone that thinks the developers have a 100% hands off approach to selling ZEN is mistaken. Anything that has to do with how this Free to Play game makes money for the developers is monitored and adjusted by those developers.
In order to create an economy in a game you must first have finite resources, things that run out either permanently or for long periods of time, and things need to wear out and only be marginally repairable to the point of destruction, even epic items. Regulation, a good economy needs regulation or it turns into what we have now, a nothing trade mechanic based on which weak minded individual will pay stupid prices and validate the person that placed the bid.
Solutions.
Self control by the gaming community, regulation by developers that can be trusted, transparency on the ZEN market and professions that actually have use, coupled with items that wear out or are seasonal will create a semblance of an economy and that is about as close as you will get.
People pulling numbers out of a hat and posting them on forums are as weak minded as the people paying huge prices on the auction house and creating the problems in the first place. It simply needs to stop. But then, this is the quality gamer F2P brings in. Grin.
items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD. items do not create AD.
well, except for the jeweled idol but who cares about that? hue
and to the guy above me, lol youre such a tool. take an econ 101 class before you pretend to know what an economy is.
My initial argument is still valid though, since I had a very conservative estimate on the player numbers. I thought this was very convincing:
Absolutely incorrect. People are bragging about making hundreds of millions of AD the first few weeks. They did this by selling items to the cheaters. Basically the economy has a vast amount of counterfeit AD.
1 Billion is laughably small. One guy posted how he had made 400 Million AD buying and selling on the AH the first couple of weeks. On outside sights, one guy bragged about having over 2 billion himself. Gold-sellers are claiming to have a virtually unlimited stock.
If the amount of counterfeit AD still in the economy is less than 100 billion I would be shocked.
That is based on the laughably small estimate of 1 billion. The counterfeit AD will still be vastly more than the non-exploited AD 100 days from now.
It will take a year or more before the damage is contained.