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20% success rate - Cryptic, I don't think it means what you think it means.
robman1978
Member Posts: 125 Bounty Hunter
I tried fusing together 6 lesser runes into regular ones. I had a 20% chance of success and so I bought 20 of those preservation wards... AND WASTED 17 of them before successfully combining the runes. I now have 3 of them left...
Really Crytpic?
How does 17 fails in a row equal to a 20% success chance?
Really Crytpic?
How does 17 fails in a row equal to a 20% success chance?
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Unusual but far from impossible.
So each time that you attempt to fuse an item you have a 20 % chance for it to be successful. So using more wards won't increase that base chance for it to be successful.
[ Support Center • Rules & Policies and Guidelines • ARC ToS • Guild Recruitment Guidelines | FR DM Since 1993 ]
If there is a 5% chance at getting a mount from boxes, and it worked like you expect, i'd have many by now.
Isn't there already an item from the shop that gives 100% success rate?
It's a chance. Try rolling a d20 20 times. While the numbers 1-4 comprise of 20% of the possible outcome, I doubt you'll see numbers 1-4 exactly 4 times out of the 20. It could be less or none. It could be more. Now if you were to roll that d20 100 times... or 1000 times even... You'll start to see results of 1-4 close to 20% of the time. Still, it won't be exact.
The operative word when it tells you the success chance is "chance".
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I don't know there might be
There is. It's 1000 Zen, as opposed to the ones that protect from failure, which are 10 for 100 Zen.
The protection ones are cheaper for all but the lowest success combines.
That's random numbers for you.
I nailed 3 40%'s in a row without eating up any wards. I've also failed 2 or 3 85%'ers in a row.
I seriously don't understand how you have the galls to charge $10 for those wards. You get the graphics of a f2p, but can sink you far more then p2p. It's amazing not one review site has talked about the horrible cash shop in this game.
Where did you learn math? If you have a 20% chance of something happening, it will happen an average of 20% of the time. Literally by definition, if an event has a 20% chance of occuring, repeating that event over and over and over again will result in an average of 20% success over time. Of course, in the short term, that will deviate a lot. However;
^ is right. The only people who say things like "a 20% chance on each roll doesn't garuntee a result, it's just dumb luck", and so on, are people who's schools failed them when it came to maths education.
No, it isn't.
[ Support Center • Rules & Policies and Guidelines • ARC ToS • Guild Recruitment Guidelines | FR DM Since 1993 ]
[ Support Center • Rules & Policies and Guidelines • ARC ToS • Guild Recruitment Guidelines | FR DM Since 1993 ]
If an average is different from another average representing the same thing, it is not an average. The average represents one of two things, but in this case it represents the mathematically probable outcome, not the result of a single discrete data set. The average successes from 10000 rolls with a 20% chance of success is 2000, period. That will never, ever, ever, EVER change. That doesn't mean that someone might get 1000 and someone might get 5000, but neither of those things changes the average, which is 2000.
The probability of failing a 20% chance 17 times in a row is .8^17, or 0.0225.
Here's the thing, the game will handle millions of these calculations a day, so lets go with a nice round 1million people fusing enchantments at 20% success rate every day.
Of those 1 million - 200,000 will succeed, 800,000 will fail.
Roll a six sided die 20 times (16.6 recurring chance of a side showing up) count how many times you land a 1, I'm willing to bet it's anything other than 3 or 4 times.
20% chance to succeed means an 80% chance to fail, yes it does even out at roughly 20%, but the odds are massively stacked against you here, honestly I'm surprised you didn't use all 20.
The most important key quote to remember is one I've pointed out in every thread where someones complained that they haven't got a drop or prize in an MMO even though they've don't more than twice the number of runs to "guarantee" it drops.
"Lady Luck has no memory."
Cool you know some math.
However this is not the design by which the roll system is being used in this game.
Each roll has it's own individual 20% chance to succeed. The game does not know that you are going to be using 20 attempts or 1 attempt. It sees 1 attempt at 20% and then resets and moves on to the next attempt at 20%. There is no probability there is no average there is just 20% chance of success. Lucky or not lucky that's it.
For every subset of every data in every scenario and every chance-based event in the world that ever occurs, there is a probability and an expected outcome. You can't just turn it off. Whether the game "knows" about probability and averages is irrelevant; it doesn't need to be programmed into the system to still occur naturally.
Some people seem to be struggling to understand that because something has a probability and an average expected outcome, that doesn't mean that this result will occur every time. Take this example:
You're right, it MAY be something other than 3 or 4 times. But to BET on it being something other than 3 or 4 times is utterly asisine, because the probability of that occuring is less than any other result. This is the definition of PROBABILITY. If you were to continually bet against the highest probability, you would lose money over time - maybe not at first, but eventually.
Think of it in a Casino's terms: There is no system in place to force results on a roulette table or a black jack table to average out to what they are expected to roll via probability. Rolling a 00 doesn't disallow 00 on the next spin. However, if the average, expected result did not occur in the long term, casinos would not and could not exist, because they would eventually lose money.
It's not about guaranteeing an outcome, it's about working out the theoretical possibility that that outcome has of occurring. In this case, failing a 20% chance 17 times in a row has a probability of 2.25%, meaning that it would occur 1 time out of every 44.4 attempts _ON AVERAGE_.
http://www.reddit.com/r/Neverwinter/comments/1dry0g/neverwinters_f2p_model_what_you_need_to_know/
yep. pay money. lots of money.