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Numbers speak - steam chart
vinceent1
Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,264 Arc User
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July 2015 2,312.2 -245.1 -9.59% 3,639
June 2015 2,557.4 -348.4 -11.99% 4,285
May 2015 2,905.7 -786.7 -21.31% 5,079
April 2015 3,692.4 +392.8 +11.91% 6,324
March 2015 3,299.6 -150.8 -4.37% 5,921
this (above) is what mod 6 looked like on steam. march hasn't hit yet. April it hits. may they've lost nearly a quarter of their players by three months out it's about 40ish percent maybe a bit more they've lost. but their average daily player count was way above what it is now even at the low.
here is our recent period starting with teh announcement of mod 16 (it was pretty stable behind this at 2200 ish daily average players the demoralizing remembrance of mod 6 has caused people to preemptively leave. it will be interesting to follow this over the next four months lol
Last 30 Days 1,876.0 -260.9 -12.21% 3,452
March 2019 2,136.9 +51.4 +2.46% 3,917
February 2019 2,085.5 -152.0 -6.79% 3,684
January 2019 2,237.5 +1.5 +0.07% 3,907
so from mod 6 it was really active for the first couple weeks. it's how quickly it drops off that will be interesting (and unless some serious fixing happens soon it will. )
Any of my comments not posted in orange are based on my own personal opinion and not official.
Any messages written in orange are official moderation messages. Signature images are now fixed!
This shows the common trend for 3 days from both Star Trek and Neverwinter. See how they flow?
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This is the recent 3 days for both games.
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But now I am going to point out to everyone that there is not enough of a drop or loss of interest yet. Today the numbers are still much higher than back at the March 30th sample. Some of you may look at the data here and remark, "But this is just numbers of the Steam Players!". Well as @thefiresidecat pointed out, Nielsen Media Research uses a small sample of statistics to find out television viewership used for deciding the canceling or renewing television shows by most television networks. While a small sample cannot represent all the data, statisticians have found small samples can reflect a large opinion. It may not be a fair system, but neither is the electoral college in my opinion.
I would wait for more data to call this a win or lose. But Cryptic stumbled coming out of the gate, which means the race is on for them to correct the issues fast. Had they held back on release date to be more bug free, more actual paid test group, and not a small sample of players, result could have been much better for the launch. This would have been shown by less of a decrease of interest the very next day. I for one will look at those numbers next week and see how they compare.
I'm sticking with my opinion on Steam: It's an easily manipulated tool. I don't buy any PC games that require Steam to play, despite having a Steam account. The only reason I say it has a 1/2 step advantage over MetaCritic is that there you at least have to own the game to leave a review, which can easily be manipulated if someone gets mad, per my example of the review bomb of vanilla Skyrim after the Creation Club came out. Valve is complicit in that: How many bans did they hand out?
eg. 11:30am yesterday to 11:30am today.
But for that reason, this does not mean much yet.
Yesterday was an outlier: launch day.
Some people made special arrangements to play (skip work/school/etc).
It being lower at launch time today... hey, it's a work/school day.
Ditto the "this is a sample of the population" explanation already given.
It is not a random sample. There is selection and other bias, but it is the best bad data we have. Probably useful for seeing trends.
Expect it to be a downward trend if the devs don't man/woman-up, admit they made a mistake and drop some of these changes fast.
I am Took.
"Full plate and packing steel" in NW since 2013.
I am trying very hard to be optimistic about the module, as I have only played it on Preview, and knew it would be about a week or more to correct issues. I might pop online to actually play it this weekend. This is why I stated the data is too small and agree with robertthebard about people needing the time to play such as the weekend or like minded persons, such as myself waiting for the debuggers to do their job first.
Any of my comments not posted in orange are based on my own personal opinion and not official.
Any messages written in orange are official moderation messages. Signature images are now fixed!
and if it were trending the other way you're right we probably wouldn't be talking about it because we'd be too busy playing the game because they'd have not messed with scaling and progression and other things.
The data can show trends - but only reliably trends for that subset of gamers - those who use Steam to access NWN. How close/far is that data representation of a Steam using gamer from an Arc using gamer? Unless Cryptic wants to start sharing Arc usage data - we will never know.
I don't expect to gain any reliable population information from Steam. That's akin to a blind man counting the green jellybeans in an open jar at the Ren Faire.
Because it's reportedly taking many 1 to 2 HOURS PER CHARACTER to set up after the mod, I would bet a good number of people are just taking the time to do character retraining and maintenance and logging off (or doing very minimal testing), so these numbers are even more skewed. I'd expect IF there were going to be a meaningful exodus, and hopefully there is none, to kick into gear in the next 24-72 hours.
Cryptic needs to be very visible and interactive now with the player base more than ever. And they need to line up some adjustments that will go over well. Solo and pug life will be taking a beating in the meantime. And guilds and alliances will struggle.
Interestingly enough, joining a GOOD friendly guild is perhaps the best way to get acclimated with all this new math. You'll manage to help yourself out better, and truly benefit Neverwinter guild life for the field of active and loyal/dedicated guild leaders out there.
But if you DO join a guild or alliance, PARTICIPATE. That's how the real fun is realized.
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It's not unreasonable to see player count "spike up" in the first few days (especially in the first week end, I suppose those numbers will romp up tomorrow and the day after that) to come in, try out the new changes, and "give the game a fair chance".
<----Neilsen family member.
<----Steam user. (all your blather about steam being bad...I found arc worst..but that's just IMO.)
<----Played hours and hours on launch day yesterday and into the wee hours.
<----Haven't logged on yet for a single minute today, but am about too, but only to set craft tasks/VIP rewards/ invoke.
<----Am interested in new content from M16, sort of fun even given the combat mess.
<----Less enthused with new combat mechs taking it from what was before mildly annoying to full bore chore.
<----Am fully disgusted with scaling fiasco mess. (why I haven't logged on at all.)
1.So what you can take from this...I am a "representative sample' of T.V. viewership (and radio).
2.I am a "representative sample" of steam using, Neverwinter players, that dislike Arc.
3.I am happy with the ~2% new content introduced with this mod, but am very unhappy with the negative effects it has had on the other ~98% of content impacted by it.
4.The posted stats concerning steam log on levels, are correct from a "representative" stand point, I am one of those 1k not playing (and several of my friends as well)
5.I and many of my friends aren't playing out of disgust and dismay and are hoping the mess will be addressed soon, I hope before some of my circle move on. After mod 6 I lost half of my fellow player circle and between M10-12a lost another chunk as well.
6.Cryptic seems to be sliding into old patterns of behavior that we had hoped they had stopped previously, that is to say, that if they aren't going to pay professional testers to do so. But rather depend on fans to do so on a test server...at least LISTEN to them..yes, actually hear what they say and consider it gospel. If they tell you it isn't right then don't go live with it! Postpone release and address the problem, it will relieve you of the following release drama and rage quits.
Why did Apple not have scheduled release dates when Steve Jobs ran the shop? His philosophy was "we will release it when it's fixed and ready, users aren't testers or bug trackers", they put out superb product and garnered lots of former Microsoft users. Then they fired Jobs and nearly went bankrupt before Gates invested to save them and require Jobs be put back. Since Jobs left (and sadly since deceased) Apple has had repeated "oops!" moments as they now have scheduled release dates again.
Mod 16 is not the same plug and play module we've had since Mod 6.
Some people will have started, realised the amount of time it will take and put off continuing till they have time (say... "at the weekend") to get stuck into it. It should see a bigger uptake this weekend as more people have time to get to grips with the changes.
(I know some people take the "I've been playing Mod 16 for a couple of hours now and it's awful..." approach, and frankly they look like idiots, because that's just not enough time to get even close to understanding the majority of changes and how to even build a character in the new system...)
Any new mod drop gets a big boost in numbers, or bloody well should anyway.
It's like a new series of a popular TV show.
Episode one is inevitably the highest unless it is one of those major TV hits that continues to grow viewers as a series airs. Say... "Game of Thrones" or how "The Bodyguard" did in the UK. But most shows, even the broadly successful ones, ship viewers over time.
People tune in to see what it's like, and if they think it's good, or even "OK" they'll watch more. If they don't like it, they won't continue.
This is why so many shows have taken to the notion of "mid season breaks". They effectively get TWO debut episodes, with the second coming at what would be traditionally the lowest point in viewer figures in a standard "straight through" run of episodes. (People usually drift back towards the end of a show to see how the finale plays out.)
I always assumed this line of thinking was why Neverwinter adopted the "B Module" method, but it seems they are confident enough of the strength of their main product to do away with this.
Big launch day numbers are a reason to celebrate, but overall success is measured by how many keep coming back.
Anyone who is trying to gauge Mod 16's success, or failure, based on current data might as well use one of those crazy animals the TV news often reports on in the "And finally..." section where something like "Paul the Octopus" predicts the outcome of World Cup soccer matches.
It's going to take a lot more compiled data than that grabbed over a couple of days since launch to take anything meaningful from them.
People always try to force data to support their feelings on a topic, even when it's clear that there isn't enough data to be relevant.
Understand that I disregard Steam totally, and definitely will not be trying to claim one or the other based on trends on Steam. For one thing, a NW player going through steam could have had their account banned for activity in another game, or on the site, and can't access it. Way too many possible variables to say "See???" one way or the other.
If that makes you feel better OP, then there you go!
TYRS PALADIUM - A Premier Neverwinter Online Guild
No Drama. Camaraderie. TEAM Focus. That's the TYRS way. If that's your style, come join us!
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The larger your sample data is, about whatever it is you are getting opinion from, the more accurate the picture will become. The following is an Example Only to illustrate the math used.
Company X makes a video game X-World and after 5 years they show a loss from a 3rd party reviewer of 10% average each year. At launch they boasted selling 50,000 copies of the game. Bean counters can use known statistics from other games like X-World to assume the following; 50% of first year players drop off in the first 6 months, that only 25% of the players who stop playing report to this 3rd party, etc..
The bean counters sit down and get a statistical picture of 25,000 copies and a loss of 2,500 the first year but only one quarter reporting this means 10,000 player leaving X-World. You have 15,000 for the 2nd year then adding back in the average growth by new players they come out with a statistical forecast.
Which by the way, is how meteorologist predict the weather, they use statistical data which is never 100% accurate. But when they take in more data, the closer it can be to accurate. I took a whole class on this stuff and never thought I would ever put it to use in the real world. Who knew I needed this in Neverwinter? While I understand statistics, I don't use them to decide the outcome of this or any other game.
Oh, you want to know what happened in my fiction model of X-World? Well assuming they have zero growth and 40% player base leaving each year, they would still have a following of roughly 250 loyal players remaining in the 10th year. This and long term forecasts can be disrupted by unseen events, like changes to the format and other games coming into the market.
I never base my opinion or option to play a game on the population. Many people tell me, I play a lot of "dead games" and what they really mean is low population games. But those games are a lot of fun. I keep seeing the same familiar players and the community becomes my extended family. It is the difference of living in a big city and having 200,000 casual strangers or a small village of 200 and know many by name.
But that's why . . . .
I log in via steam and have never had a problem.
Regardless we won't know about the effect Mod 16 is having on the population for weeks or months.
As it turned out, from his additional postings he was stating the negative and you are just being the polar opposite, saying that Steam population don't matter. The truth is the population of all online gaming wanes and eventually you end up with a small fan base that just refuses to go away until the game is shut down by the company. As I stated earlier, I continue play most games that keep even the lowest population.
@vinceent1 you cannot prove that the players are so unsatisfied with the outcome of module 16 until the Steam Charts show a drop lower than the prior numbers. March average was 2,136, since the 23rd we saw 4,464, 3,598, and 3,420 which is a peak average of 3,827. If this peak average were to drop below the 2,136 mark then you would have a viable argument. Even then you would have a difficult time convincing players like @robertthebard who will doubt the facts set before them. It is very obvious that many people on this forum are upset, but players don't normally come to any game forum to sing the praises of the game.
Outside of Steam, the only way to conduct a population survey would be to quickly hop from Adventure zone to Adventure zone, taking snap shots of the numbers of players currently online and add up all the people. This would again be a close estimate as you might count the same person more than once as the move from zone to zone or they might not get counted at all being in a Stronghold or dungeon. But those are going to be small percentile. If you record the population, time and date, then compare that to Steam, you could get the ratio of Steam vs non-Steam users. It would be a lot of work too.
Once again, I will repeat myself, numbers and population is not much to go on, to explain the reason people are coming and going from any online game. Heavy population is also present at most house fires, but it doesn't mean it is a "good thing".
Do you understand the concept of representative sampling? It's how they do polls. You take a section of a given population not all of them, present them with options, monitor their choices then extrapolate from that pool of data probable outcomes. It is never 100% accurate but if done correctly comes near. That is called the margin of error +/- of actuality.
So despite your hate of steam for your stated reasons..fine. You can STILL get representative sampling..i.e. polling data. It would be like polling everyone west of the Mississippi, you didn't poll everyone east that's true, but you could get a general idea of what is going on. So they took steam data (like west of Mississippi), took real time log on numbers from one snap shot in time vs the next day at the same time and EXTRAPOLATED what is PROBABLE. They could do the same thing with Arc data if Arc didn't hide their stats (for whatever reason they do, many speculate to hide the very thing alleged i.e. masking negative trends).
HAMSTER on steam all you want..it's your opinion and is fine....that still does not belay the representative sampling effort. As days bleed in to days and you can get more data over time you can build a far more accurate picture.
Ironically the things you are complaining about, are the problems the climate change hoax believers have. It is called modelling. You take what is presumed correct statistics (false) raw and plug it into a model frame set up into a computer. You then ask the computer to take that extrapolation of data and run forward with it, what are the effects if they interact in time? They perform 3 models 1. with least variance 2. one with most probable results 3. with most extreme variance.
As any programmer knows, "garbage in = garbage out", if your supposition is built on incorrect data, your results will be garbage. As the #3 model seems the most radical and would garner the biggest headlines, the media and climate hoaxer present that as FACT, when it is actually based on faulty underlying data, then the most variance model of that and then additionally the computer frame incorrectly not programmed to interpret conflicting data.
The "false" data: every researcher knows you should go to the source. However some are lazy and take as "fact" data provided by them, never back checking accuracy. Several of the field agents were caught red handed, falsifying raw data in the field, because the data didn't fit the narrative they felt it should...this was called the "hockey stick curve", when caught they were unapologetic, they should have been incarcerated.
The computer frame: The computer frame work was never set to accept that CO2 was anything but a green house gas, and it's presence must mean a aggregate higher temperature mean (there were other coding errors as well). But the reality didn't match the model?!?...CO2 climbed and global temps remained steady.?!?..what could have been wrong? The suppositions they built into their model, which gave false results that were reported as prophecy and fact.
Variance model: They kept choosing the most wild and least likely one #3, it had built into it, the most high improbability..as you advanced it in age it invariably failed, they "interpreted" this as "impending global disaster" when in reality it was the computer construct just collapsing under it's own error rate from faulty data, assumptions and interpretations and coding errors
So now its called climate change not global warming, even they were getting embarrassed that the revealed data no longer fit their narrative. Climate change is anything and everything you want to claim it, requiring no underlying supporting data.
All this long winded explanation boils to this: Data from steam isn't faulty, nor is it monolithic, it is a tool and is useful if applied correctly. Get over your butt hurt bias.
> No it not head in sand. It's Anti-Steam bias.
> All this long winded explanation boils to this: Data from steam isn't faulty, nor is it monolithic, it is a tool and is useful if applied correctly. Get >over your butt hurt bias.
Steam data is biased.
There is selection bias.
Calling Translation Tookbot...
"Selection bias is the bias introduced by the selection of individuals, groups or data for analysis in such a way that proper randomization is not achieved, thereby ensuring that the sample obtained is not representative of the population intended to be analyzed...
Beep Boop."
It's imperfect data.
But it is our ONLY data, so over time we might learn something from the trends.
I am Took.
"Full plate and packing steel" in NW since 2013.