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Is The Zen Exchange (ZAX) Going From bad to worse?

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  • mentinmindmakermentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,238 Arc User

    Here is my suggestion. Put Coal Wards, Pres Ward Packs, and 1 Mo. VIP in the Wonderous Bazaar at what would be 550 ad per Zen rate (on my phone and can't check actual prices). That should alleviate a good chunk of the demand, but still give an incentive to use Zen for these items, especially since the Zen market typically has more sales than Wonderous Bazaar.

    This probably would make Cryptic lose a fair bit of their income. Unlikely that will happen :)
  • dionchidionchi Member Posts: 904 Arc User
    edited April 2019
    krumple01 said:

    havlocke said:

    dionchi said:

    Currently there's a "Spring Currency Sale" for Zen in Neverwinter I believe this is the first time I've not been tempted, even at "up to 25% more", to purchase Zen...

    For me there are just too many unknowns pertaining to the roll out of Mod16 for me to continue to invest in the game at this point. If this is the last "up to 20% more" sale, ever offered by PWE so be it... at this point the only question for me is whether or not I'll continue to regularly play (and invest in) Neverwinter or whether all of the pending changes are going to alter the game so drastically that I can no longer continue to enjoy playing.

    My 2¢

    I wouldn't worry about it. There will always be another special. That's about the only constant with Cryptic. And I can't recommend to anybody to buy or convert or invest in any NWO atm. There is too much up in the air with this Mod. I'm really really hoping it works but I suspect a bug ridden mess.
    I don't think they really care if things are broken or lots of bugs are still in the mod when it goes live. They know players who love the game will put up with it. Even those who complain that have attachments to the game will put up with it. There have been bugs in dungeons for years that were never resolved. I think this has given them confidence that player will put up with broken powers and bugs because they are not ready to break up with the game yet. They hold out hope that things will work out.
    But that's the thing isn't it? With all the fundamental changes coming with Mod16, is Neverwinter still going to be the game players love and will put up with minor flaws and all?

    I’ll admit when I started playing Neverwinter back in 2013, I gave it a shot because of the name – “Neverwinter”.

    I stayed, played and invested because I did love the game but that included the character stats enhancements offered by items like gear that was pretty easy to obtain, the selection of powers, feats, enchantments, runestones, companions, mounts etc. and later by things like boons from campaigns and the guild Stronghold. Now much of that is being changed by ‘Neverwinter 2.0’. The selection of powers, feats and boons are going to have a major alteration with fewer to choose from and it looks to me like the stat benefits from enchantments and companions are also being changed significantly, not to mention what can be slotted for companions both gear and runestones. Basically those of us who have used regular gear for companions will have to either purchase or otherwise acquire new companion gear and acquire bonding runestones to replace the runestones many of us use instead of the more expensive and difficult to get bonding runestones….

    So it seems to me the Neverwinter game that players love is going to become something else altogether when Mod16 rolls out.

    It may be that all the dire predictions will turn out to me little more than misplaced doom and gloom speculation by players afraid that all of their time and effort so far will amount to very little value with the new Mod changes are rolled out.

    It may be that even if most or all of the dire predictions are true and a lot of veteran players do leave the game, new players will find the game entertaining enough to play and invest as many of us already have - or not and this will wind up being just another online game who had it’s glory days and a slow, self inflicted decline because what it was formerly wound up being completely different than what they propose currently.

    I have little doubt I’ll stay and play at least until the next anniversary date and as to whether or not I and players like me will continue to play and financially support Neverwinter kind of depends on how fun and entertaining the game is after Mod16... but if it is just going to be more and more difficult interminable grinding - that's not the Neverwinter I started and enjoyed playing.
    DD~
  • callumf#9018 callumf Member Posts: 1,498 Arc User
    dionchi said:

    krumple01 said:

    havlocke said:

    dionchi said:

    Currently there's a "Spring Currency Sale" for Zen in Neverwinter I believe this is the first time I've not been tempted, even at "up to 25% more", to purchase Zen...

    For me there are just too many unknowns pertaining to the roll out of Mod16 for me to continue to invest in the game at this point. If this is the last "up to 20% more" sale, ever offered by PWE so be it... at this point the only question for me is whether or not I'll continue to regularly play (and invest in) Neverwinter or whether all of the pending changes are going to alter the game so drastically that I can no longer continue to enjoy playing.

    My 2¢

    I wouldn't worry about it. There will always be another special. That's about the only constant with Cryptic. And I can't recommend to anybody to buy or convert or invest in any NWO atm. There is too much up in the air with this Mod. I'm really really hoping it works but I suspect a bug ridden mess.
    I don't think they really care if things are broken or lots of bugs are still in the mod when it goes live. They know players who love the game will put up with it. Even those who complain that have attachments to the game will put up with it. There have been bugs in dungeons for years that were never resolved. I think this has given them confidence that player will put up with broken powers and bugs because they are not ready to break up with the game yet. They hold out hope that things will work out.
    So it seems to me the Neverwinter game that players love is going to become something else altogether when Mod16 rolls out... I have little doubt I’ll stay and play at least until the next anniversary date and as to whether or not I and players like me will continue to play and financially support Neverwinter kind of depends on how fun and entertaining the game is after Mod16... but if it is just going to be more and more difficult interminable grinding - that's not the Neverwinter I started and enjoyed playing.
    Quoted for truth.

    I will stick around and have a look at Mod 16 and if I don't like it, then I am off to pastures new.

    My prediction is still that this Mod will drive out Veterans, but may very well drag in lots of newer players - and that is how MMOs evolve and survive... or go extinct

  • cherryman1cherryman1 Member Posts: 340 Arc User

    > But that's just my take on it.



    That is not a problem, problem is that game have unstopble praying bots, that focus 90% stones on players who use this bug ! this player allways on line for Zen! One step from administration with this problem can save this game!

    That isn't the issue. That accounts for so few of those that a player who does that still has to get wards from the auction house or Zen store. All of the items from the Auction house are from the Zen store so that is the issue. Forcing more people to get wards from the zen store will just make the exchange worse since it will drive up want for the wards and push more people to exchange AD for Zen. If they lowered the wards value or want in game they would help the issue with the exchange.
    There are people who do not go for Zen store to get ward because it takes too long. (Group A)
    There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen for their personal use (Group B ).
    There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen so that they can re-sell stuff to AH. (Group C)
    If there is no/low incentive for the Group C to buy stuff from Zen store to re-sell, the theory is the Group C people will not try to line up in Zax at all.

    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is greater than Group A, Zax wait time will be improved.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is significantly greater than Group A + Group B, Zax can be below 500.
    Group C doesn't use the exchange though. This is the breakdown in your logic. The only group using the exchange is group D which is those that can't wait to get AD and have money to buy zen directly and sell zen for AD on the exchange. Group C can use the exchange but if they are buying to sell items on the auction house they are trying to get more AD. This doesn't do anything to lower the exchange rate. It adds to the exchange rate.
    Guild Leader: Under the Influence
    Yule (Barb): 55k : Siren (TR): 60k : Torun (DC): 54k : Siren OP (OP): 59k : Siren SW (SW): 54k : Modern (F): 62k : Cherry1 (CW) : 48k Siren HR (HR): 54k
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 9,685 Arc User
    edited April 2019

    > But that's just my take on it.



    That is not a problem, problem is that game have unstopble praying bots, that focus 90% stones on players who use this bug ! this player allways on line for Zen! One step from administration with this problem can save this game!

    That isn't the issue. That accounts for so few of those that a player who does that still has to get wards from the auction house or Zen store. All of the items from the Auction house are from the Zen store so that is the issue. Forcing more people to get wards from the zen store will just make the exchange worse since it will drive up want for the wards and push more people to exchange AD for Zen. If they lowered the wards value or want in game they would help the issue with the exchange.
    There are people who do not go for Zen store to get ward because it takes too long. (Group A)
    There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen for their personal use (Group B ).
    There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen so that they can re-sell stuff to AH. (Group C)
    If there is no/low incentive for the Group C to buy stuff from Zen store to re-sell, the theory is the Group C people will not try to line up in Zax at all.

    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is greater than Group A, Zax wait time will be improved.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is significantly greater than Group A + Group B, Zax can be below 500.
    Group C doesn't use the exchange though. This is the breakdown in your logic. The only group using the exchange is group D which is those that can't wait to get AD and have money to buy zen directly and sell zen for AD on the exchange. Group C can use the exchange but if they are buying to sell items on the auction house they are trying to get more AD. This doesn't do anything to lower the exchange rate. It adds to the exchange rate.
    What do you mean Group C does not use exchange? They use the exchange to buy Zen.

    Group C is the group you described as "Group C can use the exchange but if they are buying to sell items on the auction house they are trying to get more AD".
    That is the same as my Group C description: "There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen so that they can re-sell stuff to AH. (Group C)"
  • havlockehavlocke Member Posts: 222 Arc User

    Buy all the zen you want.

    That will not reduce the backlog.

    Only those selling zen will reduce it.

    LOL, succinct, to the point, and 100% truth.
  • cherryman1cherryman1 Member Posts: 340 Arc User

    > But that's just my take on it.



    That is not a problem, problem is that game have unstopble praying bots, that focus 90% stones on players who use this bug ! this player allways on line for Zen! One step from administration with this problem can save this game!

    That isn't the issue. That accounts for so few of those that a player who does that still has to get wards from the auction house or Zen store. All of the items from the Auction house are from the Zen store so that is the issue. Forcing more people to get wards from the zen store will just make the exchange worse since it will drive up want for the wards and push more people to exchange AD for Zen. If they lowered the wards value or want in game they would help the issue with the exchange.
    There are people who do not go for Zen store to get ward because it takes too long. (Group A)
    There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen for their personal use (Group B ).
    There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen so that they can re-sell stuff to AH. (Group C)
    If there is no/low incentive for the Group C to buy stuff from Zen store to re-sell, the theory is the Group C people will not try to line up in Zax at all.

    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is greater than Group A, Zax wait time will be improved.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is significantly greater than Group A + Group B, Zax can be below 500.
    Group C doesn't use the exchange though. This is the breakdown in your logic. The only group using the exchange is group D which is those that can't wait to get AD and have money to buy zen directly and sell zen for AD on the exchange. Group C can use the exchange but if they are buying to sell items on the auction house they are trying to get more AD. This doesn't do anything to lower the exchange rate. It adds to the exchange rate.
    What do you mean Group C does not use exchange? They use the exchange to buy Zen.

    Group C is the group you described as "Group C can use the exchange but if they are buying to sell items on the auction house they are trying to get more AD".
    That is the same as my Group C description: "There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen so that they can re-sell stuff to AH. (Group C)"
    Group C is somewhat the same in re reading it. What isn't happening is that all of those groups increase the exchange rate time and none of them lower it which is the conclusion you are using. Nobody is buying AD except those that are impatient to get AD to get legendary mounts or UES which is few if any. Most of the people who use the exchange the other way are only doing it because they don't know better. Just like if I walk into a casino and place a bet in a slot machine when the one next to it pays out twice as much and twice as often. Nobody would play that one machine because it was a sucker bet.

    Here is what should have been corrected:

    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is greater than those selling Zen, Zax wait time will be increased in time to collect Zen.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is significantly greater than those selling Zen + Group B, Zax will increase at a increasing amount.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is lower than those selling Zen, Zax wait time will be improved.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is Significantly lower than those selling Zen, Zax wait time will be below 500.

    We need group C to be reduced in their purchasing of Zen with AD. Binding items to account, limiting the amount you can sell zen items for below purchase amounts of AD will both lower the people in Group C. Group C is the bad group in the scenario as they are the ones increasing their AD amounts each time they do this rotation of Zen to AD to Zen that happens.
    Guild Leader: Under the Influence
    Yule (Barb): 55k : Siren (TR): 60k : Torun (DC): 54k : Siren OP (OP): 59k : Siren SW (SW): 54k : Modern (F): 62k : Cherry1 (CW) : 48k Siren HR (HR): 54k
  • krumple01krumple01 Member Posts: 755 Arc User
    edited April 2019

    > But that's just my take on it.



    That is not a problem, problem is that game have unstopble praying bots, that focus 90% stones on players who use this bug ! this player allways on line for Zen! One step from administration with this problem can save this game!

    That isn't the issue. That accounts for so few of those that a player who does that still has to get wards from the auction house or Zen store. All of the items from the Auction house are from the Zen store so that is the issue. Forcing more people to get wards from the zen store will just make the exchange worse since it will drive up want for the wards and push more people to exchange AD for Zen. If they lowered the wards value or want in game they would help the issue with the exchange.
    There are people who do not go for Zen store to get ward because it takes too long. (Group A)
    There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen for their personal use (Group B ).
    There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen so that they can re-sell stuff to AH. (Group C)
    If there is no/low incentive for the Group C to buy stuff from Zen store to re-sell, the theory is the Group C people will not try to line up in Zax at all.

    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is greater than Group A, Zax wait time will be improved.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is significantly greater than Group A + Group B, Zax can be below 500.
    Group C doesn't use the exchange though. This is the breakdown in your logic. The only group using the exchange is group D which is those that can't wait to get AD and have money to buy zen directly and sell zen for AD on the exchange. Group C can use the exchange but if they are buying to sell items on the auction house they are trying to get more AD. This doesn't do anything to lower the exchange rate. It adds to the exchange rate.
    What do you mean Group C does not use exchange? They use the exchange to buy Zen.

    Group C is the group you described as "Group C can use the exchange but if they are buying to sell items on the auction house they are trying to get more AD".
    That is the same as my Group C description: "There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen so that they can re-sell stuff to AH. (Group C)"
    Group C is somewhat the same in re reading it. What isn't happening is that all of those groups increase the exchange rate time and none of them lower it which is the conclusion you are using. Nobody is buying AD except those that are impatient to get AD to get legendary mounts or UES which is few if any. Most of the people who use the exchange the other way are only doing it because they don't know better. Just like if I walk into a casino and place a bet in a slot machine when the one next to it pays out twice as much and twice as often. Nobody would play that one machine because it was a sucker bet.

    Here is what should have been corrected:

    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is greater than those selling Zen, Zax wait time will be increased in time to collect Zen.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is significantly greater than those selling Zen + Group B, Zax will increase at a increasing amount.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is lower than those selling Zen, Zax wait time will be improved.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is Significantly lower than those selling Zen, Zax wait time will be below 500.

    We need group C to be reduced in their purchasing of Zen with AD. Binding items to account, limiting the amount you can sell zen items for below purchase amounts of AD will both lower the people in Group C. Group C is the bad group in the scenario as they are the ones increasing their AD amounts each time they do this rotation of Zen to AD to Zen that happens.
    Another person who completely cuts out or ignores the reason players are buying zen to begin with.

    If you make zen packs bound to account, this means they can't sell those packs on the AH which is the whole reason they are buying zen with cash to start with. It's because the AH allows a greater return on AD than the ZAX does. If you remove this incentive from players, they will simply stop buying ZEN with cash.

    You can't force this issue because you MUST look at the reason why players drop cash into the game. If you expect to force players to use the ZAX by making zen packs BTA then they won't because ZEN is worth more than 500 ad per one ZEN. Its not worth it to a player to use the ZAX to get quick AD.

  • greywyndgreywynd Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 6,109 Arc User
    Pretty sure Cryptic has the data on what people are buying with zen and what they are doing with those items.
    I'm not looking for forgiveness, and I'm way past asking permission. Earth just lost her best defender, so we're here to fight. And if you want to stand in our way, we'll fight you too.
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 9,685 Arc User
    edited April 2019

    > But that's just my take on it.



    That is not a problem, problem is that game have unstopble praying bots, that focus 90% stones on players who use this bug ! this player allways on line for Zen! One step from administration with this problem can save this game!

    That isn't the issue. That accounts for so few of those that a player who does that still has to get wards from the auction house or Zen store. All of the items from the Auction house are from the Zen store so that is the issue. Forcing more people to get wards from the zen store will just make the exchange worse since it will drive up want for the wards and push more people to exchange AD for Zen. If they lowered the wards value or want in game they would help the issue with the exchange.
    There are people who do not go for Zen store to get ward because it takes too long. (Group A)
    There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen for their personal use (Group B ).
    There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen so that they can re-sell stuff to AH. (Group C)
    If there is no/low incentive for the Group C to buy stuff from Zen store to re-sell, the theory is the Group C people will not try to line up in Zax at all.

    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is greater than Group A, Zax wait time will be improved.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is significantly greater than Group A + Group B, Zax can be below 500.
    Group C doesn't use the exchange though. This is the breakdown in your logic. The only group using the exchange is group D which is those that can't wait to get AD and have money to buy zen directly and sell zen for AD on the exchange. Group C can use the exchange but if they are buying to sell items on the auction house they are trying to get more AD. This doesn't do anything to lower the exchange rate. It adds to the exchange rate.
    What do you mean Group C does not use exchange? They use the exchange to buy Zen.

    Group C is the group you described as "Group C can use the exchange but if they are buying to sell items on the auction house they are trying to get more AD".
    That is the same as my Group C description: "There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen so that they can re-sell stuff to AH. (Group C)"
    Group C is somewhat the same in re reading it. What isn't happening is that all of those groups increase the exchange rate time and none of them lower it which is the conclusion you are using. Nobody is buying AD except those that are impatient to get AD to get legendary mounts or UES which is few if any. Most of the people who use the exchange the other way are only doing it because they don't know better. Just like if I walk into a casino and place a bet in a slot machine when the one next to it pays out twice as much and twice as often. Nobody would play that one machine because it was a sucker bet.

    Here is what should have been corrected:

    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is greater than those selling Zen, Zax wait time will be increased in time to collect Zen.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is significantly greater than those selling Zen + Group B, Zax will increase at a increasing amount.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is lower than those selling Zen, Zax wait time will be improved.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is Significantly lower than those selling Zen, Zax wait time will be below 500.

    We need group C to be reduced in their purchasing of Zen with AD. Binding items to account, limiting the amount you can sell zen items for below purchase amounts of AD will both lower the people in Group C. Group C is the bad group in the scenario as they are the ones increasing their AD amounts each time they do this rotation of Zen to AD to Zen that happens.
    You totally ignore my statement:

    "If there is no/low incentive for the Group C to buy stuff from Zen store to re-sell, the theory is the Group C people will not try to line up in Zax at all."

    That is the Group C is gone.
    Revisit:
    "There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen so that they can re-sell stuff to AH. (Group C)"
    Nothing to re-sell means no Group C.

    I intentionally took buying AD using Zen out of my equation and leaving it as a constant. If there is X amount of AD being purchase everyday, I leave that as the same amount X everyday.

    No matter what X is changed to, eliminating Group C will help the back log. Group C people may be switched to Group B or just not lining up for Zen. Group A may also move to Group B.
  • cherryman1cherryman1 Member Posts: 340 Arc User

    > But that's just my take on it.



    That is not a problem, problem is that game have unstopble praying bots, that focus 90% stones on players who use this bug ! this player allways on line for Zen! One step from administration with this problem can save this game!

    That isn't the issue. That accounts for so few of those that a player who does that still has to get wards from the auction house or Zen store. All of the items from the Auction house are from the Zen store so that is the issue. Forcing more people to get wards from the zen store will just make the exchange worse since it will drive up want for the wards and push more people to exchange AD for Zen. If they lowered the wards value or want in game they would help the issue with the exchange.
    There are people who do not go for Zen store to get ward because it takes too long. (Group A)
    There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen for their personal use (Group B ).
    There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen so that they can re-sell stuff to AH. (Group C)
    If there is no/low incentive for the Group C to buy stuff from Zen store to re-sell, the theory is the Group C people will not try to line up in Zax at all.

    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is greater than Group A, Zax wait time will be improved.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is significantly greater than Group A + Group B, Zax can be below 500.
    Group C doesn't use the exchange though. This is the breakdown in your logic. The only group using the exchange is group D which is those that can't wait to get AD and have money to buy zen directly and sell zen for AD on the exchange. Group C can use the exchange but if they are buying to sell items on the auction house they are trying to get more AD. This doesn't do anything to lower the exchange rate. It adds to the exchange rate.
    What do you mean Group C does not use exchange? They use the exchange to buy Zen.

    Group C is the group you described as "Group C can use the exchange but if they are buying to sell items on the auction house they are trying to get more AD".
    That is the same as my Group C description: "There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen so that they can re-sell stuff to AH. (Group C)"
    Group C is somewhat the same in re reading it. What isn't happening is that all of those groups increase the exchange rate time and none of them lower it which is the conclusion you are using. Nobody is buying AD except those that are impatient to get AD to get legendary mounts or UES which is few if any. Most of the people who use the exchange the other way are only doing it because they don't know better. Just like if I walk into a casino and place a bet in a slot machine when the one next to it pays out twice as much and twice as often. Nobody would play that one machine because it was a sucker bet.

    Here is what should have been corrected:

    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is greater than those selling Zen, Zax wait time will be increased in time to collect Zen.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is significantly greater than those selling Zen + Group B, Zax will increase at a increasing amount.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is lower than those selling Zen, Zax wait time will be improved.
    If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is Significantly lower than those selling Zen, Zax wait time will be below 500.

    We need group C to be reduced in their purchasing of Zen with AD. Binding items to account, limiting the amount you can sell zen items for below purchase amounts of AD will both lower the people in Group C. Group C is the bad group in the scenario as they are the ones increasing their AD amounts each time they do this rotation of Zen to AD to Zen that happens.
    You totally ignore my statement:

    "If there is no/low incentive for the Group C to buy stuff from Zen store to re-sell, the theory is the Group C people will not try to line up in Zax at all."

    That is the Group C is gone.
    Revisit:
    "There are people who line up in Zax to get Zen so that they can re-sell stuff to AH. (Group C)"
    Nothing to re-sell means no Group C.

    I intentionally took buying AD using Zen out of my equation and leaving it as a constant. If there is X amount of AD being purchase everyday, I leave that as the same amount X everyday.

    No matter what X is changed to, eliminating Group C will help the back log. Group C people may be switched to Group B or just not lining up for Zen. Group A may also move to Group B.
    We're both saying the same thing. The issue is that I find one of your statements to be incorrect. Group A in your written context can also be stated as just people who don't participate. You making them into people who do participate but are buying Zen which isn't explicitly in your statement. That is why when you come in the last 2 statements and mention group C who are those that are causing the exchange to increase to mean that if we increase the number of people in group C (who are the those causing the issue) we then improve the exchange. That is a wrong statement. If you want your final statement to be correct you need to state that group A people are buying zen and using the exchange to get AD explicitly. In your statement your saying that group A just doesn't participate which means nothing in the situation. Anyone who doesn't exchange zen in the world falls into Group A. Group C should be explicitly stated as meaning those that purchase Zen with AD with the intention of selling the items in the zen store. You can't use vague statements in algebraic formulas. Also, you should be saying that lowering the numbers of people in Group C will improve the exchange because fewer amounts of AD moving to Zen means lower wait times for exchanges the other direction. Your explaining things correctly but using the wrong conclusions or just stating the conclusion wrong.

    So, the way I read your statements is followed:
    Group A: Undefined variable - Possible you mean people that want Zen and buy it with money that isn't explicitly defined but I am filling in the gaps based on your further written explanations.
    Group C: People who are converting AD to Zen to Purchase items with Zen and sell for AD. This group just continues this over and over and over...

    This is your equation and the way I read it is:
    Plasticbat's original equation: "If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is greater than Group A, Zax wait time will be improved."
    Way that I read your statement: So when we take Group C and say we want to increase that groups numbers compared to Group A (who I think you are also assuming incorrectly that they all buy Zen to sell for AD) and we are adding people to Group C increasing that group we will then come to the conclusion that the exchange will decrease and move towards less than 500 to 1 ratios.
    Way I think the statement should read: We need to lower Group C so that there is less want to convert AD to Zen to sell items which will lower the exchange rate and lower the wait time.
    How I would state it: If the amount of Zax offer of Group C is lower than Group A, Zax wait times will be improved.


    "If there is no/low incentive for the Group C to buy stuff from Zen store to re-sell, the theory is the Group C people will not try to line up in Zax at all."

    You having this statement in there contradicts your final conclusions which is why I think we are on the same concept but I am going with you final 2 statements that are incorrectly written as what you are stating. I ignored this statement since it is correct and I am pointing out the wrong conclusions. The last two lines don't match this statement and are at odds with it.
    Guild Leader: Under the Influence
    Yule (Barb): 55k : Siren (TR): 60k : Torun (DC): 54k : Siren OP (OP): 59k : Siren SW (SW): 54k : Modern (F): 62k : Cherry1 (CW) : 48k Siren HR (HR): 54k
  • krumple01krumple01 Member Posts: 755 Arc User
    edited April 2019
    krumple01 said:

    Kinda funny to read all your posts in every thread about ZAX. Why are you defending the status quo vehemently?
    I still find that the person, who want an ingame currency in exchange for another currency should use the exchange, how it was meant to be done with the ZAX.

    That is fine if ZAX is intended or meant for it. However lets face it, the ZAX is at a point where its equal to not even existing in the game. Because its not even moving or working.

    If they remove the ability to place ZEN packs on the AH, that is fine. But this also removes the incentive for players to drop cash into the game. The ZAX is broken because ZEN is worth more than allowed for trading.

    I guess I have to keep restating those facts.

  • adinosiiadinosii Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 4,294 Arc User

    ...that 500 AD are worth more than 1 ZEN,

    Eh, no...you got that backwards. 1 Zen is actually worth quite a bit more than 500 AD ... real value is closer to 750AD right now.

    Hoping for improvements...
  • krumple01krumple01 Member Posts: 755 Arc User
    adinosii said:

    ...that 500 AD are worth more than 1 ZEN,

    Eh, no...you got that backwards. 1 Zen is actually worth quite a bit more than 500 AD ... real value is closer to 750AD right now.

    You might be right, but from my math it seems its more around 1200 to 1500 per 1 zen.

  • lowjohnlowjohn Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,061 Arc User
    krumple01 said:

    adinosii said:

    ...that 500 AD are worth more than 1 ZEN,

    Eh, no...you got that backwards. 1 Zen is actually worth quite a bit more than 500 AD ... real value is closer to 750AD right now.

    You might be right, but from my math it seems its more around 1200 to 1500 per 1 zen.
    Your math is wrong. Adinosii's is approximate, but definitely closer. (Unless you're on the Russian server, where the ZAX cap is 1000? Then I'm pretty sure you're right, just talking about a different server)

    Right now, items are purchased for Zen at 20-50% off and sold for AD at 90-100% value (after AH cut). Since the value of Zen is capped, this means that a Coal Ward costs 500-800 Zen and sells for 900-1000 Zen.

    This means that your Coal Ward nets you between 100 and 500 Zen *profit*. That means your profit in AD is between 10 and 100%, meaning the value of your Zen is 550-1000 AD. Since "buy at 50% off (500 Zen), sell at 550,000 AD to take home 1000 Zen worth of AD" only happens a few times a year with a fairly large wait between them, the 100% profits are rare, and you can probably beat them overall by taking advantage of the more common 40% sales and 90% value returns. And people rarely sell at only 20% profit, so the lowest profits are rare, too.

    So 700-800 AD/Zen is about where we are.

    The thing is, the only reason we're at 750-ish and not higher is that the sales cap out at 50% (so, 100% profit) and the market is pegged to 500. The "true value" of Zen will *always* float above the ZAX limit, between that number and the profit you get from selling the max sale item at normal price. If there's an 80% off Coal Wards sale and the ZAX cap is 1000, the true value of Zen will be between 1001 and 5000 AD/zen, probably steadying around 2500 and bouncing up and down from there. If they announced a permanent change so that *no sale* would *ever* be over 33% ever again (meaning, 50% profits), and capped the ZAX at 1000, pretty soon the true value of Zen would stabilise around 1125.


    The positive feedback loop caused by Zen -> Item -> AD -> MORE ZEN will cause the value of zen to always rise to above the limit of the AD->Zen market. Remove the cap and it will rise forever without bound.

    This doesn't happen in STO because in STO, you cannot turn Items -> AD. Items in STO can only turn to Gold, and Gold can't turn to Zen. So if you want STO-AD, you *must* trade Zen directly for it, or earn it in-game yourself subject to the daily cap. You can't open a lockbox and win "as much AD as four month's 100% daily refining" by selling a jackpot on the AH. It would happen *less* in Neverwinter if there weren't sales and coupons - instead of 40-60% profits, people would be making 5-10% by selling at 105-110%-after-AH-cut and taking advantage of people who don't want to wait for Zen, but the loop would still exist.

  • krumple01krumple01 Member Posts: 755 Arc User
    lowjohn said:

    krumple01 said:

    adinosii said:

    ...that 500 AD are worth more than 1 ZEN,

    Eh, no...you got that backwards. 1 Zen is actually worth quite a bit more than 500 AD ... real value is closer to 750AD right now.

    You might be right, but from my math it seems its more around 1200 to 1500 per 1 zen.
    Your math is wrong. Adinosii's is approximate, but definitely closer. (Unless you're on the Russian server, where the ZAX cap is 1000? Then I'm pretty sure you're right, just talking about a different server)

    Right now, items are purchased for Zen at 20-50% off and sold for AD at 90-100% value (after AH cut). Since the value of Zen is capped, this means that a Coal Ward costs 500-800 Zen and sells for 900-1000 Zen.

    This means that your Coal Ward nets you between 100 and 500 Zen *profit*. That means your profit in AD is between 10 and 100%, meaning the value of your Zen is 550-1000 AD. Since "buy at 50% off (500 Zen), sell at 550,000 AD to take home 1000 Zen worth of AD" only happens a few times a year with a fairly large wait between them, the 100% profits are rare, and you can probably beat them overall by taking advantage of the more common 40% sales and 90% value returns. And people rarely sell at only 20% profit, so the lowest profits are rare, too.

    So 700-800 AD/Zen is about where we are.

    The thing is, the only reason we're at 750-ish and not higher is that the sales cap out at 50% (so, 100% profit) and the market is pegged to 500. The "true value" of Zen will *always* float above the ZAX limit, between that number and the profit you get from selling the max sale item at normal price. If there's an 80% off Coal Wards sale and the ZAX cap is 1000, the true value of Zen will be between 1001 and 5000 AD/zen, probably steadying around 2500 and bouncing up and down from there. If they announced a permanent change so that *no sale* would *ever* be over 33% ever again (meaning, 50% profits), and capped the ZAX at 1000, pretty soon the true value of Zen would stabilise around 1125.


    The positive feedback loop caused by Zen -> Item -> AD -> MORE ZEN will cause the value of zen to always rise to above the limit of the AD->Zen market. Remove the cap and it will rise forever without bound.

    This doesn't happen in STO because in STO, you cannot turn Items -> AD. Items in STO can only turn to Gold, and Gold can't turn to Zen. So if you want STO-AD, you *must* trade Zen directly for it, or earn it in-game yourself subject to the daily cap. You can't open a lockbox and win "as much AD as four month's 100% daily refining" by selling a jackpot on the AH. It would happen *less* in Neverwinter if there weren't sales and coupons - instead of 40-60% profits, people would be making 5-10% by selling at 105-110%-after-AH-cut and taking advantage of people who don't want to wait for Zen, but the loop would still exist.

    But part of the equation in economic math isn't purely based on just the marketable item or service. You have to factor in a few more things. One is the inflation rate of the currency behind the purchasing power. If AD is inflated which it is, this immediately derails your argument. Also you can't just use Wards for your factoring. Because you are only dealing with the demand of those wards which fluctuates and isn't constant. Wards are not consumed infinitely. Its sorta like cellphones vs food. Food you always need everyone needs and will have an infinite stream of demand. However cellphones don't. sure people break theirs or they want the newest version, but the consuming of cellphones is not infinite nor constant. The same is true for wards. Once a player reaches a point where they don't need them, they drop off as a buyer unless they are attempting to resell which is doubtful. However; players who no longer have a demand for wards themselves can still be sellers and in fact become a larger portion of sellers of wards. When they get tradable wards they have no use for, they sell them.

    So you can't base it purely on wards for the value of zen. You have to look at multiple pieces of high demand items. When you factor these in with the inflation of AD you get around 1200 to 1500 ad per 1 zen.
  • lowjohnlowjohn Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,061 Arc User
    krumple01 said:


    But part of the equation in economic math isn't purely based on just the marketable item or service. You have to factor in a few more things. One is the inflation rate of the currency behind the purchasing power. If AD is inflated which it is, this immediately derails your argument. Also you can't just use Wards for your factoring. Because you are only dealing with the demand of those wards which fluctuates and isn't constant. Wards are not consumed infinitely. Its sorta like cellphones vs food. Food you always need everyone needs and will have an infinite stream of demand. However cellphones don't. sure people break theirs or they want the newest version, but the consuming of cellphones is not infinite nor constant. The same is true for wards. Once a player reaches a point where they don't need them, they drop off as a buyer unless they are attempting to resell which is doubtful. However; players who no longer have a demand for wards themselves can still be sellers and in fact become a larger portion of sellers of wards. When they get tradable wards they have no use for, they sell them.

    So you can't base it purely on wards for the value of zen. You have to look at multiple pieces of high demand items. When you factor these in with the inflation of AD you get around 1200 to 1500 ad per 1 zen.

    I picked Coal Wards because they have a nice round 1-per-1000-zen price point, they're common enough to be always available, and they're in constant demand and selling briskly. So their current price is almost always a good indication of the state of a sale.

    What's your bellwether item, then? What Zen Market item do you see selling on the AH for ~250% of Zen purchase price, regularly, to get your 1250 AD/Zen estimate?
  • klangeddinklangeddin Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 882 Arc User
    You can't calculate the equilbrium price of AD/Zen without knowing the aggregate demand and supply curves in the AD/Zen market.

    It could be 600, 700, 800, 1200, 1500, 2000, or anything else really. Even the entity of the backlog cannot give us a correct estimate, as we don't know the inclination of the curves...
  • lowjohnlowjohn Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,061 Arc User

    You can't calculate the equilbrium price of AD/Zen without knowing the aggregate demand and supply curves in the AD/Zen market.

    It could be 600, 700, 800, 1200, 1500, 2000, or anything else really. Even the entity of the backlog cannot give us a correct estimate, as we don't know the inclination of the curves...

    I'm saying, currently each Zen you spend gets you 1.2->2 Zen back, as long as you aren't making the mistake of buying AD with it, and I think the most profitable version of the cycle averages around 1.5 Zen back per Zen spent.

    That's why I'm saying each Zen is currently "worth" around 750 AD. And why I say if the cap moves, the "worth" of Zen will follow it. I'm not talking about the equilibrium point in an uncapped market (which, because of the positive feedback loop in one direction, will rise forever, even if it stops rising *quickly* at some point)
  • klangeddinklangeddin Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 882 Arc User
    I'm talking about the equilibrium point in an uncapped market in a precise moment in time (now), not what it will be the future, where it could raise, or fall, depending on the action taken by developers on the game's economy.
    The equilibrium point now is what the zen is "actually worth" now, it's the price at which the market would clear itself without excess demand or supply and the wait time for buying Zen via ZAX would be zero (or somewhat next to zero).

    And you're making a lot of assumptions there on consumer's behaviour (assumptions without data to back them up I'd say), which is what ultimately dictates what that price would be.
  • dionchidionchi Member Posts: 904 Arc User
    edited April 2019

    krumple01 said:

    Another person who completely cuts out or ignores the reason players are buying zen to begin with.

    If you make zen packs bound to account, this means they can't sell those packs on the AH which is the whole reason they are buying zen with cash to start with. It's because the AH allows a greater return on AD than the ZAX does. If you remove this incentive from players, they will simply stop buying ZEN with cash.

    You can't force this issue because you MUST look at the reason why players drop cash into the game. If you expect to force players to use the ZAX by making zen packs BTA then they won't because ZEN is worth more than 500 ad per one ZEN. Its not worth it to a player to use the ZAX to get quick AD.

    Kinda funny to read all your posts in every thread about ZAX. Why are you defending the status quo vehemently?
    I still find that the person, who want an ingame currency in exchange for another currency should use the exchange, how it was meant to be done with the ZAX.

    It is my opinion that the only people who would profit from a deviation from the "Status Quo", that being raising the cap on the exchange of AD to Zen would be whales who are currently hording a stockpile of Zen - I suspect in the hopes that the ZAX cap will be raised.

    Every other player, those who are of limited funds and don't have a surplus will find they are spending more AD's for fewer Zen, Cryptic will likely increase the price of their Zen packets (or offer fewer Zen for the same money) and most likely players would also see the price of everything in the Zen Market as well as everything on the Auction House increase exponentially...

    Why wouldn’t any player, not holding a stockpile of Zen, "defend the Status Quo”?

    Personally I rather see the ZAX market frozen indefinitely than see a return of fewer Zen for AD and the price of everything much higher than it is currently.

    Post edited by dionchi on
    DD~
  • krumple01krumple01 Member Posts: 755 Arc User
    lowjohn said:

    krumple01 said:


    But part of the equation in economic math isn't purely based on just the marketable item or service. You have to factor in a few more things. One is the inflation rate of the currency behind the purchasing power. If AD is inflated which it is, this immediately derails your argument. Also you can't just use Wards for your factoring. Because you are only dealing with the demand of those wards which fluctuates and isn't constant. Wards are not consumed infinitely. Its sorta like cellphones vs food. Food you always need everyone needs and will have an infinite stream of demand. However cellphones don't. sure people break theirs or they want the newest version, but the consuming of cellphones is not infinite nor constant. The same is true for wards. Once a player reaches a point where they don't need them, they drop off as a buyer unless they are attempting to resell which is doubtful. However; players who no longer have a demand for wards themselves can still be sellers and in fact become a larger portion of sellers of wards. When they get tradable wards they have no use for, they sell them.

    So you can't base it purely on wards for the value of zen. You have to look at multiple pieces of high demand items. When you factor these in with the inflation of AD you get around 1200 to 1500 ad per 1 zen.

    I picked Coal Wards because they have a nice round 1-per-1000-zen price point, they're common enough to be always available, and they're in constant demand and selling briskly. So their current price is almost always a good indication of the state of a sale.

    What's your bellwether item, then? What Zen Market item do you see selling on the AH for ~250% of Zen purchase price, regularly, to get your 1250 AD/Zen estimate?
    Well there is a new factor in mod 16 which is the streak breaker when upgrading. According to my testing and other testing I've been watching. IF a coal ward is on the AH for higher than 350k its not worth buying even if you are trying to upgrade at a 1% chance. This assumes that pres wards will still sell for around 5k each. Due to the streak breaker you are better off using a stack of pres wards at 5k each than using a coal ward if its selling for more than 347k. Their value has dropped mod 16 because of the streak breaker mechanic.

  • lowjohnlowjohn Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,061 Arc User
    krumple01 said:

    lowjohn said:

    krumple01 said:


    But part of the equation in economic math isn't purely based on just the marketable item or service. You have to factor in a few more things. One is the inflation rate of the currency behind the purchasing power. If AD is inflated which it is, this immediately derails your argument. Also you can't just use Wards for your factoring. Because you are only dealing with the demand of those wards which fluctuates and isn't constant. Wards are not consumed infinitely. Its sorta like cellphones vs food. Food you always need everyone needs and will have an infinite stream of demand. However cellphones don't. sure people break theirs or they want the newest version, but the consuming of cellphones is not infinite nor constant. The same is true for wards. Once a player reaches a point where they don't need them, they drop off as a buyer unless they are attempting to resell which is doubtful. However; players who no longer have a demand for wards themselves can still be sellers and in fact become a larger portion of sellers of wards. When they get tradable wards they have no use for, they sell them.

    So you can't base it purely on wards for the value of zen. You have to look at multiple pieces of high demand items. When you factor these in with the inflation of AD you get around 1200 to 1500 ad per 1 zen.

    I picked Coal Wards because they have a nice round 1-per-1000-zen price point, they're common enough to be always available, and they're in constant demand and selling briskly. So their current price is almost always a good indication of the state of a sale.

    What's your bellwether item, then? What Zen Market item do you see selling on the AH for ~250% of Zen purchase price, regularly, to get your 1250 AD/Zen estimate?
    Well there is a new factor in mod 16 which is the streak breaker when upgrading. According to my testing and other testing I've been watching. IF a coal ward is on the AH for higher than 350k its not worth buying even if you are trying to upgrade at a 1% chance. This assumes that pres wards will still sell for around 5k each. Due to the streak breaker you are better off using a stack of pres wards at 5k each than using a coal ward if its selling for more than 347k. Their value has dropped mod 16 because of the streak breaker mechanic.
    OK, but you didn't answer the question. Streak Breaker makes Coal Wards worth about the same as 80 Pres Wards instead of 100 Pres Wards, sure - but you can do the exact same math with "a stack of 99 pres wards" and reach the same conclusion I did.

    What's *your* bellwether item that regularly sells on AH for 250% of it's Zen Store cost?
  • arazith07arazith07 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,154 Arc User
    Back when it was 500:1 the backlog was 33mil Zen(16.5bil AD), Now with 750:1 it's 8mil (6bil AD). Not sure if the daily sell has increased or decreased though, used to be about 1.5 mil zen/day. Just put a buy order up yesterday so I guess I'll find out soon enough.
  • dionchidionchi Member Posts: 904 Arc User
    arazith07 said:

    Back when it was 500:1 the backlog was 33mil Zen(16.5bil AD), Now with 750:1 it's 8mil (6bil AD). Not sure if the daily sell has increased or decreased though, used to be about 1.5 mil zen/day. Just put a buy order up yesterday so I guess I'll find out soon enough.

    Come back and let us know what you think...

    DD~
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