How long till I get anything valuable from lockbox?

Hi.

I'm playing two years now. I know there are people who play much longer than I do, but I'm really angry after this black friday event.

I bought ZEN, I bought lockbox keys. And the most valuable thing I got is Greater Mark of Potency. I opened circa 100 lockboxes.

I have VIP from 18 months. With daily key, that's 540 lockboxes I opened just from daily key. I also bought circa 100 keys during last year zen sale. That's 740 lockboxes.

I occasionally buy 10-15 keys if I feel like I want. Let's round this to 900, even though I know there was more of it.

I'm a grow up man, who's a sucker for D&D and roleplaying games. That's why I bumped on to Neverwinter. I don't mind spending money for fun. But I just like to ask you guys (moderator, devs, managers) what are the official chances of getting anything good from lockbox?

Please, give me the numbers, cause after 900 keys you guys gave me nothing. I look at this great picture of you tempting me to open lockbox - "Get your legendary mount!" it says. I never ever got anything from this cool picture you upload every time you launch a new lockbox. And let me repeat myself: I opened 900 lockboxes.

And I know that under my post there will be people who will have numbers of keys even bigger than mine and yet still got nothing.

How do you want me to pay you money for nothing? Gambling in Las Vegas is more secure than buying lockbox keys.

How is this possible I don't get anything you show me (companions, artifacts, Legendary Mounts) after 900 tries? What are the official odds?

I will appreciate any kind of answer. But if you want to answer "blah blah blah RNG is the same for everyone you can't blame us" then don't answer anything.

I feel like you guys are lying to me and I really don't like to be lied. I will happily give you money for something.

Your angry customer.
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Comments

  • drartwhodent
    drartwhodent Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 262 Arc User
    I am not a dev, but you did answer your own question.
    The RNG is a very fickle goddess.
    I have gotten 'good' drops from lockboxes, and I have also gone through hundreds and hundreds without a 'good' drop. I opened 400 boxes this last weekend without a legendary dropping. It happens.
    To say that you got *nothing* is a bit of a stretch tho. I would be willing to bet that you got *somethings* that were useful.
    DON'T
    PANIC!
  • zomak#4611
    zomak#4611 Member Posts: 223 Arc User
    I got a glorious resurgence epic artifact pack after 200ish(7 months of VIP or so) keys. I've also gotten valuable epic insignia, and rare/epic mounts from the mount packs. I've gotten bonding runestones, epic companions, and 1 30 pack of upgrade tokens from the companion packs. I've gotten a superior mark and 2 violet diamonds(which sold for 180k each) from the enchantment pack during 2x gems.

    Normally I just sell the pack though. If you are only looking at the lebgendary drop then yes that is extremely rare.
  • plasticbat
    plasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 10,427 Arc User
    RNG is bad in this game. You knew that since you have played for 2 years. It is not news. You knew that because you did that many times. You see what you got many times. Yet, you still made the decision to buy lockbox keys and hoped for a "miracle". How many times does the RNGod need to fool you?
    The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will.
  • marv700#9957
    marv700#9957 Member Posts: 135 Arc User
    I've said it before and I'll say again. Gambling has no place in a video game. This lockbox HAMSTER has got to stop. Let folks buy what they want, not pay real $ for a small chance. If I wanted to gamble, I'd go to a Casino.
  • greywynd
    greywynd Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 6,452 Arc User
    Bought 50 keys during the sale. Got an additional 5 keys from the charge event. Had 1 from daily VIP. Of those 56 boxes the highlights were 1 Legendary Carpet of Flying, 2 epic Carpets of Flying, and enough companion tokens to manage another upgrade.
    I'm not looking for forgiveness, and I'm way past asking permission. Earth just lost her best defender, so we're here to fight. And if you want to stand in our way, we'll fight you too.
  • hudman21
    hudman21 Member Posts: 276 Arc User
    This is becoming a huge problem and these lock box schemes are about to get addressed by politicians. Breitba*#t had an article on it. Its not just this game either.

    Odds at winning Vegas games:

    Roulette With 38 numbers (1 to 36, plus 0 and 00), the true odds of hitting a single number on a straight-up bet are 37 to 1. That is for the big payout. 50/50 on black or red but the payout is 2:1.

    Baccarat Player 1.24%

    Blackjack Vegas Rules 0.28%

    Video Poker Jacks or Better 0.46%

    Here is my issue with lock boxes, I have been playing for 3 years:

    When your best chance is worse than these odds I'd say move on. This is gambling pure and simple. Even in dungeon runs your chance in the dungeon chests is about the same. Other than my free key from VIP I dont buy them any more. And I get the VIP for other reasons, not for the key.

    There are thousands of posts here regarding +5 rings and ultimate Enchantment stones not dropping after hundreds of runs and hundreds of keys/lock boxes opened. Look at the cost for Legendary mounts and that will tell you how often they drop.

    Don't even get me started on the bottle neck they created on upgrading enchantments that need ultimate Enchantment stones. So yeah, I hope PWE addresses this but we all know they wont.
    Life is full of drains, I prefer to be a fountain
  • greywynd
    greywynd Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 6,452 Arc User
    kharkov58 said:

    Someone has a gun to your head forcing you to buy lockbox keys?

    Not all players are adults with common sense or self-control.
    I'm not looking for forgiveness, and I'm way past asking permission. Earth just lost her best defender, so we're here to fight. And if you want to stand in our way, we'll fight you too.
  • namelesshero347
    namelesshero347 Member Posts: 2,109 Arc User
    How long? "Never", is quite possible with the horrible RNG.
  • callumf#9018
    callumf#9018 Member Posts: 1,585 Arc User
    I did 30 lockboxes as an experiment and the first 29 were dire, I opened everything i got and nearly every time it was lowest common denominator stuff. Every time. Then on box 30 a UES! I sold for 800k. But honestly what can you buy for 800k AD?

    AS TO LET US BUY WHAT WE WANT...

    I look in the Zen store...

    I want an Orange Mount... is there any there?

    I want some iL 480 boots ... is there any there?

    I maybe a noob and a half but the Zen store doesnt seem to have much decent stuff in it anyway. JUST spend money on a chance to get something good.

    So I play the content I enjoy for fun and its unlikely I will ever spend real life money on the game, therefore, for me [I am their target demographic, potential to spend money] their current business model isnt working. That should be a consideration for their business development team.
  • greywynd
    greywynd Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 6,452 Arc User
    Legendary mounts are one of the main draws for the boxes. That is why there are none in the zen market. But the keys, at the low-low-low price of 125 zen, they're there.
    I'm not looking for forgiveness, and I'm way past asking permission. Earth just lost her best defender, so we're here to fight. And if you want to stand in our way, we'll fight you too.
  • agilesto
    agilesto Member Posts: 516 Arc User
    hudman21 said:


    Odds at winning Vegas games:

    Roulette With 38 numbers (1 to 36, plus 0 and 00), the true odds of hitting a single number on a straight-up bet are 37 to 1. That is for the big payout. 50/50 on black or red but the payout is 2:1.

    Baccarat Player 1.24%

    Blackjack Vegas Rules 0.28%

    Video Poker Jacks or Better 0.46%

    I don't really understand the comparison here. In Vegas or casinos in general, you pay and either you win or you lose. The odds are low, so most of the time you'll lose money without anything in return.

    Here your odds at winning the Best price (legendary) are low, but in every case you win something. Sure it maybe something you don't want/need, but you can then sell it. Either way you'll earn AD through AH selling packs, or items you'll use (refinement, pets, mounts, and so on), and on the "worse" case you'll win TTB only that you can still spend on items, to use or sell later.

    Lootboxes are probably something to discuss, but I disagree that it should be taken on the same level at regular casino where you spend money, and get nothing at all.
  • indalord
    indalord Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 51 Arc User
    Hello,

    I agree with 1:2000. I spoke a bit lately with several 'huge openers', some from my guild, some not, I'd say epic leg is 1:1800.
    I'am VIP since the beginning and never had a Leg loot....Only had 1 leg mount 1 week ago from 150 keys I bought during discount. Ofc i"d like more leg mount drops as that for sure will encourage me to buy more keys. However, buying 50keys+1VIP month for 3K zen is correct. May be not profitable but a good return on investment.


    >I don't think they will state the official odds but I have seen test results around the web that suggest the chance is 1:2000 at best
    Indalord I & II
  • plasticbat
    plasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 10,427 Arc User
    Even if they post the odd, it does not mean anything to an individual. If a slot machine in casino has a pre-defined odd, the odd is about how often the slot machine will give out a prize and not about how often an individual gambler will get a prize.

    In this case, everybody in NW are (supposed to be) playing one slot machine.
    The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will.
  • callumf#9018
    callumf#9018 Member Posts: 1,585 Arc User
    Whichever way you look at it odds of 1:2000 arent encouraging players who are prepared to pay cash to invest in a gamble with such long odds. I know that I certainly wouldn't
  • reg1981
    reg1981 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,410 Arc User
    edited November 2017
    I've pulled a few orange mounts in the past 4 years however that's not 1 key at a time. I've had 0 luck opening a key a day. I stack and open. I pulled a glorious resurgence box when opening 100 keys, I pulled 2 orange striders in 20 keys. They do pop, but RNG is a HAMSTER!

    Edit: Just opened todays VIP key and pulled a Stronghold pack.

    Here is a breakdown of what I've gotten from my last 98 keys opened:

    24 - Enchantment packs
    28 - Companion packs
    26 - Artifact Packs
    14 - Mount paks
    6 - Stronghold packs

    Not only do I stack my keys to open a bunch at a time, I also stack and store their contents for a 2x Enchants weekend.
  • niadan
    niadan Member Posts: 1,635 Arc User
    edited November 2017
    The answer to the OP's question is:

    4 years
    76 days
    3 hours
    And 37 seconds

    Or something in that range...give or take.

    As to ODDS:

    SLIM
  • mentinmindmaker
    mentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,367 Arc User
    edited November 2017
    Tests have shown that the probability of getting an orange mount is 0.15%.

    That means that after opening 900 lockboxes you have 26% chance of not getting an orange mount.

    Not getting one after 900 lockboxes does not sound wrong, just a bit unlucky.

    Lockboxes are a big gamble, and there is a reason why it is being discussed if games with lockbox-type content should be under the gambling laws of various countries.

    In China there is a law requiring the game producers to publish the probabilities of the items in the lockboxes.

    It is also wrong to say that 900 lockbox keys are a loss, if you buy the keys at 40% discount you will generally more or less recover the cost of the key by selling what you get from opening, in in-game coinage. Full-price keys seems to be a loss though.

    If you get your lockbox keys from VIP the math is better, by selling what you get you generally will more than recover the cost of the VIP with the chance of an orange mount as bonus.
  • dafrca#4810
    dafrca#4810 Member Posts: 469 Arc User
    edited November 2017
    This is purely my opinion:

    I have been playing for three months. I have been a VIP for almost the whole time. I have bought a key every time I have gotten the 40% off coupon. I also bought a few during the Zen Store Black Friday sale.

    So far I have not received a single Orange. And I am not shocked. I knew the odds were long on that. I have pulled a few Purple items though. My son and one of my characters both have the Purple T-Rex mount for example.

    I look at the lock boxes the same way I do a scratcher ticket here in California. If you buy it thinking you will hit it big you will be sad. I pick the lock box I am going to open that day, then I spend the whole time I am playing thinking about what could be. Then I open it at the end of the day knowing it will not be more than a green item. This way I maximize my fantasy pay out from the possibility by stretching it out, minimize my disappointment to what really pops, and in the end I am happier when it is better then a green item. I can't tell you how happy I was to get a blue companion for example or the time I received 30 companion tokens.

    I am happy for those who get an orange item, but I know, for me, I just can't see "expecting" one.

  • alleykate
    alleykate Member Posts: 42 Arc User
    Well if it makes you feel any better, my fiance and I both have vip, both have spent a little money on keys, 4 and half years later...NOTHING that resembles the colour orange...I wish you better luck.
    Guild - Fair Dinkum 2.0
    Part of Team Tredecim of the Cloaks Alliance website
    https://cloakalliance.wordpress.com/
  • akanaro
    akanaro Member Posts: 51 Arc User
    If you got to a casino every day for a year and never win any large sums of money on slot machines will you then go to the casino owner and ask why you never win anything when gambling in his casino?
  • docsnuggles#6615
    docsnuggles#6615 Member Posts: 61 Arc User
    This thread makes me laugh.
  • oldbaldyone
    oldbaldyone Member Posts: 1,840 Arc User
    They base the drop rates off something pretty simple in my mind: Some bean counter runs a script that shows how many characters there are on the server, multiplies that by 36000, divides that by 62500. This gives them the max number of essentially "free" lockboxes that could be earned a day. They then use that to determine how many "jackpots" they want to give out a day in theory, and set the drop rate accordingly.

    Just a theory of course. Some people have said that its based on how many of a specific item exists on the server at any given point. If there are 400 people with a specific Legendary mount online...and 400 is the cap...nobody can get one. One of those people logs off, and the next person to open that box will get that mount....

    All theories, and they are not going to clarify ANYTHING in this regard. Just go back and watch the Chult 12b maintenance stream. The devs LAUGHED when the topic of RNG was brought up, as if it was funny. They also LAUGHED when discussing the employee per diem they get that players don't, but thats not relevant lol.

    RNG is this game needs significant work, but the devs won't believe it. The numbers in the end might work out, but the streaks are insane and only noticeable when playing really. Just hit up skill nodes for an hour and record how many first time successes you get, and record how many times that you fail repeatedly on the same one. What I have seen is that you will one shot them most of the time (as expected), but when you failed, you fail repeatedly.

    Anyways....
  • trgluestickz
    trgluestickz Member Posts: 1,136 Arc User
    edited December 2017
    I did lockbox key cycling over the course of over 3 months starting sometime around July. I sold off all of my enchantments and other valubles on my main character (a nearly maxed out PVP TR) and then used the AD to buy lockbox keys. I started with around 1,100 keys. I opened lockboxes, sold all the contents off, and then bought my keys back. I repeated this over and over again until I finally got enough money for 3 legendary mounts + enough to buy all of my gear back. I also transfered a bunch of copies of my character to the preview server each with tons of keys on them and my guild's lockbox stash in their inventory. I opened tons of boxes both on live and on preview. Here are my findings:

    I noticed that it did not seem to really matter how many keys you had past the 250 mark. Most of the stacks I opened were stacks of 1000+ and stacks of just above 250. I noticed that the number of legendaries I was pulling from either sized stack was always 0, 1, 2, or 3. When I opened stacks of 1000+ keys, almost every single time, at least 1 legendary would drop within the first 250 keys if it was going to happen at all. It was difficult to tell whether or not having 1000+ keys instead of 250 actually increased your odds of getting any legendaries.

    The number of opened stacks that actually granted any legendaries varied. Sometimes, I would open over 10 stacks and all but 1 would succeed and other times, I would see things like 3 stacks in a row not dropping any legendaries or 4 out of 5 stacks not dropping any legendaries. Overall, I saw more successful stack opening attempts than failing ones. On live, my luck seemed worse than it was on preview and I got slightly more failing stack opening attempts than successful ones. On preview, almost all stack opening attempts I made using 250 or 1,000+ keys were successful.

    I also have had VIP rank 12 since a couple of months after it came out. After all of this time, I have never drawn a legendary mount with a VIP key before. On the flipside, I know 3 different guildmates who have used 1 daily VIP key and scored a legendary mount. At least one of these people had this happen to them twice.
    --
    PVP Rogue,
    --[----- "Your friendly neighborhood spawn of Satan." -----]--
    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Main Character: Hurricane Marigolds (Rogue WK & Assassin)
    Ingame Handle: trgluestickz
    Discord Name: Hurricane🌀Marigolds#2563
    Guilds: She Looked LVL 18 & Essence of Aggression
    Alliances: Imperium & Order of the Silent Shroud
    Platform: PC
  • matthattr
    matthattr Member Posts: 84 Arc User
    I've been playing this NW casino for quite a while now, I knew the odds sucked at this casino...I just want to rage about one thing..were is my freakn free beer? I want my free comped beer and it better be cold!
  • plasticbat
    plasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 10,427 Arc User
    matthattr said:

    I've been playing this NW casino for quite a while now, I knew the odds sucked at this casino...I just want to rage about one thing..were is my freakn free beer? I want my free comped beer and it better be cold!

    Go to Driftwood Tavern and get an Ale from the bartender. It is pretty strong.
    The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will.
  • greywynd
    greywynd Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 6,452 Arc User
    Ghoulish concoctions can also be found.
    I'm not looking for forgiveness, and I'm way past asking permission. Earth just lost her best defender, so we're here to fight. And if you want to stand in our way, we'll fight you too.
  • jade1280
    jade1280 Member Posts: 174 Arc User
    Yeah bad habbit that buying keys for loot boxes is not good for your wallet or sanity go for the VIP and just claim the 1 free key a day but don't set your life on getting a grand prize companion packs come with runestones that are darn useful and make good refinement points if nothing else.

    Spend money on funny hats not loot box keys solid advice i wish i knew years ago.