what are the REAL % to upgrading?

kaguzi · November 2015

Ok let start this by saying I know how percents are suppose to work. For there to be an average you most have someone above it and someone below it. That be say, since the x2 rp weekend I have been trying to upgrade my enchantment, artifact, artifact equipment, ect here are the results
95% chance 3 passed 2 fails
90% chance 7 passed 5 fails
50% chance 2 passed 15 fails { 1 for 10 and 1 for 7

}
20% chance 0 passed 12 fails
10% chance 0 passed 10 fails
I will not bother with the 01% cause you are not suppose to make those. The cost to get better gear score is making always broke
which would be okay if I could actually hit par on any of these { really 90+ % and I am only 10 for 17 (58%) }
Can only think that the percentages are effect by something else. charisma? Devotion circle? color of my toons eyes?
Does anyone have any ideals how I could improve the odds. It getting to the point that I might as well just unpack my xbox
and start playing Call of Duty again

kreatyve · November 2015

If you fail, wait a few seconds before trying again. I've heard that trying on an empty instance helps, though I don't know if that's true or not. Also, the best way to improve the odds is to use a Coal Ward, lol, which just gives you a 100% chance. Someone explained the odds to me on Reddit, but I'm not so great at the math.

lirithiel · November 2015

I always upgrade my stuff and open lockboxes in SH and low population instances don't seem to help with success rates. Failed far more than I succeeded.

zukn75 · November 2015

One persons report especially with such a low sample size as you have given is not statistically significant. For everyone who comes to the forums to state poor runs, someone got a success on the first attempt and doesn't come to the forums to report it. You must remember to bow down and worship the all mighty RNGeses and praise him to all. If you convert enough unbelievers and heretics he may favour you with a successful run.
All hail the all powerful and benevolent RNGesus., blessed be his name. He diced for our sins so we may know eternal happiness.

kreatyve · November 2015

zukn75 said:
One persons report especially with such a low sample size as you have given is not statistically significant. For everyone who comes to the forums to state poor runs, someone got a success on the first attempt and doesn't come to the forums to report it. You must remember to bow down and worship the all mighty RNGeses and praise him to all. If you convert enough unbelievers and heretics he may favour you with a successful run.
All hail the all powerful and benevolent RNGesus., blessed be his name. He diced for our sins so we may know eternal happiness.

LOL. Sounds about right, lol.

sockmunkey · November 2015

RNGesus has turned his back to you.

theycallmetomu · November 2015

I suspect that the % numbers are about right, but they're not normally distributed. You get strings of failures so long that there's a less than .001% chance of them occurring (for any X number of consecutive attempts), but then you also get strings of successes that are equally unlikely.

kisakee · November 2015

The chance written down is not only for you, it's for all player. So maybe you can fail 5/10 on 50% while a guy right next to you only got 3/10 but his mate behind him has 7/10. All together the 50% are real. So if you fail one day all the time don't blame the game, blame the lucky B's who are upgrading the same time.^^

arabatur · November 2015

Cryptic ~~needs~~ wants you to buy Coalescent Wards.

zebular · November 2015

arabatur said:
Cryptic ~~needs~~ wants you to buy Coalescent Wards.

Oh, is this why they're dropping down to 75 Trade Pars per when Underdark launchers? /sarcasm

Unknown · November 2015

This content has been removed.

zibadawa · November 2015

If you want the best odds, you have to be eating a peanut butter and mackerel sandwich while making out with your sock. And you can only have the one sock. If you own more than one sock, you're out of luck.

beatannier · November 2015

sockmunkey said:
RNGesus has turned his back to you.

Weak cosplay. He forgot sockets.

zukn75 · November 2015

Unfortunately over the time, like all great theologies, there have been schisms between the believers of RNGesus.

zibadawa said:
If you want the best odds, you have to be eating a peanut butter and mackerel sandwich while making out with your sock. And you can only have the one sock. If you own more than one sock, you're out of luck.

Here we see a prime example of one of the "Sockists" spouting his beliefs. Where as any true believer knows, there is no formula to please the omnipotent RNGesus, it's random. Seek your own truth, but at all times remeber RNGesus spent 40 days and 40 nights in the desert (near Vegas) and came back with wisdom and phat lewtz.

suicidalgodot · November 2015

...hmmm.

Maybe using socks instead of human females in my pre-upgrade ritual sacrifice could work too???

thefabricant · November 2015

suicidalgodot said:
...hmmm.

Maybe using socks instead of human females in my pre-upgrade ritual sacrifice could work too???

*sigh* its a bit sad how my relevant response regarding requiring statistically relevant sample sizes got removed but troll comments (as funny as they are) like all of these rngesus ones, get to stay

suicidalgodot · November 2015

thefabricant said:

suicidalgodot said:
...hmmm.

Maybe using socks instead of human females in my pre-upgrade ritual sacrifice could work too???
*sigh* its a bit sad how my relevant response regarding requiring statistically relevant sample sizes got removed but troll comments (as funny as they are) like all of these rngesus ones, get to stay

While your sadness is rightful, appropriate, and justified...

...the RNG-conspiracy-theory threads wouldn't come into existence if people making them over and over again would even bother to look at some "scientific" stuff like wikipedia. So, probably some Mod had a wee moment of dark humour and decided it might be better to keep that on the lighter side to avoid a flame war. >:)

thefabricant · November 2015

suicidalgodot said:

thefabricant said:

suicidalgodot said:
...hmmm.

Maybe using socks instead of human females in my pre-upgrade ritual sacrifice could work too???
*sigh* its a bit sad how my relevant response regarding requiring statistically relevant sample sizes got removed but troll comments (as funny as they are) like all of these rngesus ones, get to stay
While your sadness is rightful, appropriate, and justified...

...the RNG-conspiracy-theory threads wouldn't come into existence if people making them over and over again would even bother to look at some "scientific" stuff like wikipedia. So, probably some Mod had a wee moment of dark humour and decided it might be better to keep that on the lighter side to avoid a flame war. >:)

If you bothered to look at the links I posted before they were removed, it wasn't wikipedia (which I don't really cite except for mathematics, because I can check that the maths on wikipedia is correct by myself) but it was a list of tests done by players as an example of a statistically relevant sample size.

plasticbat · November 2015

kaguzi said:
Ok let start this by saying I know how percents are suppose to work. For there to be an average you most have someone above it and someone below it. That be say, since the x2 rp weekend I have been trying to upgrade my enchantment, artifact, artifact equipment, ect here are the results
95% chance 3 passed 2 fails
90% chance 7 passed 5 fails
50% chance 2 passed 15 fails { 1 for 10 and 1 for 7 }
20% chance 0 passed 12 fails
10% chance 0 passed 10 fails
I will not bother with the 01% cause you are not suppose to make those. The cost to get better gear score is making always broke
which would be okay if I could actually hit par on any of these { really 90+ % and I am only 10 for 17 (58%) }
Can only think that the percentages are effect by something else. charisma? Devotion circle? color of my toons eyes?
Does anyone have any ideals how I could improve the odds. It getting to the point that I might as well just unpack my xbox
and start playing Call of Duty again

Bad luck?
95%. Almost always passed except failed once.
10% got the success the first try once. Within 3 tries, 3 times.
3% got the success the first try once (had 8 account bound p-ward. It was the wth, gives me back an inventory slot mode. The system just wanted to go against my wish).

Others: kind of random but within my "limit".

subnocte · November 2015

The 75% percentage on skill boxes is a complete lie. I'd say it's more like 35% having opened hundreds of the things over the time I've played.

zibadawa · November 2015

zukn75 said:

Here we see a prime example of one of the "Sockists" spouting his beliefs. Where as any true believer knows, there is no formula to please the omnipotent RNGesus, it's random. Seek your own truth, but at all times remeber RNGesus spent 40 days and 40 nights in the desert (near Vegas) and came back with wisdom and phat lewtz.

And do you remember the only thing he had with him while in that desert? A single sock.

theoddis1 · November 2015

because thats not how % of chance works.... you have a quarter and flip it it can land heads or tails now you know for a FACT that its 50-50 ether heads or tails and flip 100 quarters and not get 50 heads and 50 tails you can get 100 heads and no tails that still doesn't change the 50-50 chance, its still 50-50 you could have a 75% chance and fail a refinemet 20 times 30 time 50 times its till 75% chance. it works the opposite way to you could have a 1% chance and get it on the first try. its basic middle school level math.

a % chance does not gurantee any specific outcome its called The gambler's fallacy
its why people go broke in casinos they go "well I have a 10% chance to win so I am bound to win here soon...."

you cant determine the % chance by counting how many times you win or lose its the same thing with the coin flip it 70 times get heads 70 times that doesnt make it 100% chance of heads its till 50-50 because its a % for each flip not total of all flips so taking down data on win fail for a refinement tells you absolutely nothing about the % chance

stabbath · November 2015

lirithiel said:
I always upgrade my stuff and open lockboxes in SH and low population instances don't seem to help with success rates. Failed far more than I succeeded.

Why SH? There some glitch that give better odds?

zukn75 · November 2015

Why not SH, it's random, doing it the SH may "feel lucky" for that person. Just as long as you believe in RNGesus, you too will be rewarded with a hot streak,(When and where the hot streak occurs and whether you notice are of course random).

lirithiel · November 2015

stabbath said:

lirithiel said:
I always upgrade my stuff and open lockboxes in SH and low population instances don't seem to help with success rates. Failed far more than I succeeded.
Why SH? There some glitch that give better odds?

SH because it is usually not populated and I heard that the probability is instance-wide, not game-wide - which is why people say try low populated instance zones for these things. Doesn't seem to help me though.

thefabricant · November 2015

The drop rates are whatever you believe them to be.

silverkelt · November 2015

my drop rates seem to be much lower then others =P

fdsakhfduewhfiuf · November 2015

theoddis1 said:
you cant determine the % chance by counting how many times you win or lose its the same thing with the coin flip it 70 times get heads 70 times that doesnt make it 100% chance of heads its till 50-50 because its a % for each flip not total of all flips so taking down data on win fail for a refinement tells you absolutely nothing about the % chance

That's not true. The % chance can be estimated from keeping track of individual coin flips - lots of flips (law of large numbers).

On the other hand there is the law of averages (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages) which people fall for.

oliboyph · November 2015

fdsakhfduewhfiuf said:

theoddis1 said:
you cant determine the % chance by counting how many times you win or lose its the same thing with the coin flip it 70 times get heads 70 times that doesnt make it 100% chance of heads its till 50-50 because its a % for each flip not total of all flips so taking down data on win fail for a refinement tells you absolutely nothing about the % chance
That's not true. The % chance can be estimated from keeping track of individual coin flips - lots of flips (law of large numbers).

On the other hand there is the law of averages (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages) which people fall for.

Good you brought out the law of large numbers here. It is only when you do it so many times that the result will follow the probability of success. If you try it only 70, or even just 100 times, chances are the results don't really reflect the actual probabilities that well. You need thousands of attempts before you start seeing the results following the actual probability.

And again, the result you get now, will not influence your next result. At 50% success rate, just because you failed now, does not mean that the next try is a guaranteed success. Your next attempt will be as if the previous attempt had never happened.

lirithiel · November 2015

oliboyph said:
Your next attempt will be as if the previous attempt had never happened.

That right there is the truth of it.

godsblade · November 2015

I have found drinking King Kona Coffee while eating a glazed donut, while playing Ozzy's Crazy Train extremly loud, helps my odds of success

what are the REAL % to upgrading?

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