I don't use steam to load NW or STO, and I know I am not the only one who doesn't but has it in their library. So, folks like me will be skewing the results of Steam's activity for Neverwinter, and any other Steam item that can be loaded without Steam running. This also fits with seeing a degrade in active players as more and more stop loading Steam to play Neverwinter over time.
To clarify, you or anyone else having or not having the game installed on Steam has no effect on this chart so long as they never launched it through Steam. This chart isn't a measure of "People who have it installed" vs "People who launch it" or anything like that. That data is simply not a factor here. All this represents is number of players who have launched the game through Steam over time.
Even so, Steam is not an exclusive delivery method so even then their figures are just some unknown percentage of the population. Without knowing those, Steam's figures seem a tad useless.
This is illogical. It doesn't matter what percentage of the total population comes from Steam, all that matters is whether this is a statistically significant sample size. 6,000 players very much is statistically significant. The total game population could be 10,000 or it could be 100,000, it doesn't matter. This is a large enough group that it can be considered representative of the whole. The FDA typically conducts clinical trials on humans with sample sizes orders of magnitude smaller than this.
Lastly, we have the changing of the Seasons across the world and in the US, we've entered Summer, when more people are outside.
This is valid. There could be some as of yet unknown third global factor here, possibly seasonal changes as suggested. It's nearly impossible to prove causation with statistics, only correlation, so it could technically just be a coincidence that the population dropped after the release. This isn't something that can really be proved 100% one way or the other I imagine.
So another valid point was brought up earlier: they have been heavily encouraging players to switch to Arc by no longer allowing code redemption through the website. They have also been discouraging players playing through Steam by not counting purchases made that way for the first time buyer's pack and also binding zen store items to account for Steam players. (Yes, it's true you don't need to actually launch it through Arc to avoid these restrictions, but you do need to have the Arc Client downloaded and installed, so it's fair to say people are at least somewhat more likely to use Arc due to these factors.)
What this adds up to is there could be a population that used to play on Steam but has switched to playing through Arc. (So yes, if you used to launch the game before Mod 6 through Steam but no longer do now for any reason, you will be skewing this data.)
The question then becomes: of the third of players who no longer play through Steam, is there a significant portion of them who still play but through Arc? I think considering the time factor is the best way to answer that. (Obviously, releasing similar Arc user statistics would be best, but I don't see that happening.)
I could be wrong about this, but I believe the "First Time Buyer's Pack" restriction and the "zen store purchases are bound" restriction have been in place long before mod 6 launched. I think it's safe to say that most people who were content with these restrictions before mod 6 are probably still content with them after, as I don't think the mod exacerbated them in any large way.
That leaves the possibility of people switching over due to needing to redeem a promo key. This I'm less confident about. Were there any promo keys in this period which were given out in a large number? I honestly don't recall off the top of my head. I would say however that there have been a number of Arc-only promo codes in the past, so for one to have an impact it would need to be significantly more enticing or reach a larger audience than all those past promo codes which apparently failed to switch over the 6000-odd Steam population in the past.
tl;dr: Statistical Analysis. Numbers happened. All of this is meaningless because we already know mod 6 flopped. They wouldn't sack the lead designer and make a blog post apologizing for the module if the player base wasn't dropping. I just like numbers.
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silverkeltMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 4,235Arc User
I do not need to see steams data.. I can tell in game.
Many old time players are gone and there is less people then ever to run content with... not that it matters, there isnt any incentive to run most things anyways.. a whopping 3-6k most runs.. woot. sheesh.
Here is a news flash.. when there is almost no reason to run things.. no one will. They went overboard in slashing rewards and the results are dismal.
jumpingmorksMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 876Arc User
edited July 2015
Yay another thread on another game forum decrying the decrease of active population...
I haven't played a single game where there hasn't been someone acting like the doomsayer in the first act of NWN SoU and I sent him to plague ridden Neverwinter :P
If you want to be able to measure whether the ship is sinking for sure go to PE and start reporting external sellers, because the surest way to know a ship is truly sinking is when the rats start making off into the sunset.
Reason OP is just a content gap. The sharp dropoff could be reasoned though cause of MoD6s many drastic, probably ill advised changes. Itll climb though, reach a peak at next mod release. Then drop again a little after. If you compared that graph trajectory to another MMORPG on steams, I wouldnt be too suprised if it was a similar pattern.
It's natural that a new Mods always come with a peak and a dropoff after, but the game has been pretty stable on Steam over the months, but lost ~30% players after Mod 6. In my eyes that's pretty telling.
Steam numbers aside. The game has lost lots of players due to the mod just plain being bad. The numbers would be even lower if you could separate those who just log in to invoke and say hi to the guildies before bouncing again. (They don't really play anymore but they haven't given up all hope or just haven't found that new game that totally replaces this one.)
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santralafaxMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 2,896Arc User
It's natural that a new Mods always come with a peak and a dropoff after, but the game has been pretty stable on Steam over the months, but lost ~30% players after Mod 6. In my eyes that's pretty telling.
Do the Steam charts show any kind of peak for Mod 6. Or just downhill all the way?
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jumpingmorksMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 876Arc User
It's natural that a new Mods always come with a peak and a dropoff after, but the game has been pretty stable on Steam over the months, but lost ~30% players after Mod 6. In my eyes that's pretty telling.
Do the Steam charts show any kind of peak for Mod 6. Or just downhill all the way?
Last I checked, you couldn't buy zen through steam, maybe all those downhill statistics are installing Arc so they can buy zen, ca-ching.
NW Xbox One version was also released. The drop shown in the May stats is also due in part to some people (particularly the newer players) switching to play on the Xbox. Don't forget about that.
NW Xbox One version was also released. The drop shown in the May stats is also due in part to some people (particularly the newer players) switching to play on the Xbox. Don't forget about that.
highly unlikely. I can't imagine a huge bunch of constant active neverwinter pc gamers changing to an inferior version of the game and loose all the stuff they already earned.
Platypus wielding a giant hammer, your argument is invalild!
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jumpingmorksMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 876Arc User
Also, if you notice on Twitch the only streams you ever run across are XBox. Interesting considering PC would technically have more content. XBox platform will tank as soon as the new shine wears off in a year or so and people realize the game for what it is...
And where reason fails insults follow. Judging the context by your signature. There are better ways to vent frustration, however well earned they may be.
NW Xbox One version was also released. The drop shown in the May stats is also due in part to some people (particularly the newer players) switching to play on the Xbox. Don't forget about that.
highly unlikely. I can't imagine a huge bunch of constant active neverwinter pc gamers changing to an inferior version of the game and loose all the stuff they already earned.
Did you read the part that says "particularly newer players" and "in part"? People that started within that last few months who couldn't catch up with the well-geared, AD-rich players would see a fresh start as an opportunity to get in from the beginning (whether that reasoning is correct or not is another topic.). This happens frequently with any MMO that opens new separate servers. This just happens to be on a different platform, so individual preference on that will also play a part in the decision.
Post edited by lldt on
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putzboy78Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 1,950Arc User
edited July 2015
So essentially what's being said is that the 33% decrease in Steam player activity in the first month of Mod 6 (4/7-5/7) is attributed to people moving to arc using the local client? If the problem is Steam wouldn't we see a constant and relatively steady decline of the Steam activity? In the 1st month of Mod 6 we see the third largest activity decline since Neverwinter arrived on Steam. I know some people moved to Steam from ARC because of the multiple ARC outages we had during that time. So I do not think the Steam->ARC migration is a one way street.
Here is an interesting thought. Module 6 is specifically designed to be gated at a 35'ish day farm for Tier 2 gear (thanks to the cache system). This means that the population decrease in the first month are people who either tried the game and did not like it, or got to end game and decided the T2 gear farm wasn't attractive enough for them to complete it (yes some of us completed it much faster than 35 days but it required a very low return 1/3-2/3 eTOS farming which I painfully did).
Another indicator of less incoming revenue is the AD exchange. Mod 6 did not bring in the typical ZEN influx from a new Mod. As a result Zen still sold at 500AD each. We did get a slight dip in price on the first RP weekend; however we didn't see the price of zen drop this past RP weekend (the backlog volume did drop a bit). The Module 5 release got ZEN down to around 470 each. An argument can be made that AD is less useful since you cannot buy BIS gear, but RP should be filling that income void and it obviously isn't. There remains much more AD in game than ZEN. That's meaningful when you consider how much harder it is to earn AD in this module than it was in the previous modules. Getting the daily RAD cap is easy, but getting much beyond that is difficult since dungeons are dropping only BOA/BOC gear.
Also note the quick price drops on lvl 70 artifact belts/necks implying more availability than demand. Belts were much more expensive in Mod 4 and the price remained high throughout the module.
[/quote]
Did you read the part that says "particularly newer players" and "in part"? People that started within that last few months who couldn't catch up with the well-geared, AD-rich players would see a fresh start as an opportunity to get in from the beginning (whether that reasoning is correct or not is another topic.). This happens frequently with any MMO that opens new separate servers. This just happens to be on a different platform, so individual preference on that will also play a part in the decision.
[/quote]
Have you some examples to support your argument or is this only a assumption becauae this are different demographics.
Platypus wielding a giant hammer, your argument is invalild!
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drkbodhiMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 2,378Arc User
I do not need to see steams data.. I can tell in game.
Many old time players are gone and there is less people then ever to run content with... not that it matters, there isnt any incentive to run most things anyways.. a whopping 3-6k most runs.. woot. sheesh.
Here is a news flash.. when there is almost no reason to run things.. no one will. They went overboard in slashing rewards and the results are dismal.
I 100% agree. There used to be throngs of players on at ALL times, Anytime I logged on, all I had to do was to LFG for anything and I was invited in seconds. I used to see at least 5 to 7 instances of PE that had 40 players, not anymore.
The way to make sure that the business succeeds is to reassess what has been done lately and back-pedal... correct the action with something to boost the desires of the players left... to stay.
As Newton's 3rd Law of Motion states... Every action has an equal and opposite reaction.
That also works with business. Which is why FINE-TUNING, almost imperceptible change, is needed instead of grand sweeping changes. Move big... break/bounce big. Each bounce after that has a reduced reaction.
The Buddhists have a different ideal when it comes to this. If you throw a big rock into a pond the ripples have an effect on everything in the water. If you throw a little rock into a pond... there is very little disruption from the ripples.
Atwil "At" - Tiefling TR / Saardush - Black Dragonborn GWF / White - Tiefling OP
anyone who thinks and even worse tries to justify the drop in players after mod6 release is people moving to "xbox" or "arc" client they are..... disillusioned and detached from reality..
you can see each module a bump, then a loss for a few months then another bump.. another loss.. etc etc.. and the player base has been faily steady (after a big crash dec 2013, jan, feb 2014.. the avg was around 4k-3k players but after may of this year.. it has not broken 3k players again.. and it is falling off more than it EVER did previously after a module..
the move they (cryptic) have made from pay for "boosts" and "speed" in power to pretty much pay or you never DO get power.. is drastic.. and the way they have screwed new characters over, where 61-70 was annoying before.. now it is an insane joke.. and the fact all the old players already have all the overlevel points for rank4 in power, but the new guys are screwed.. it has scared off most new players once they get up there and realize "wow.. it will take me MONTHS to get to the same SKILL level even vs them, not even considering the gear!"
i am not sure exactly what the endgame/goal is here at this point and it seems "lost" and i am scared it is in upper managements hands and bean counters hands not programers hands at this point.. and the programers are just told
"you will earn this much by doing this... and no i don't really care how players will react.. they will pay to gain the power or they will quit and new people will come"
except i dunno if they will, the "dungeons" were reduced to 3... except the ones with GL requirements, which those are a joke for pugs.. takes 1hr to 3hrs to get in one, then everyone right away checks everyone each others gear score.. and the people with 2500+ decide "oh screw this" and quit when they see people with like 1650.. and then everyone else follows them out.. that happens 2-4 times before a group actually TRIES, which 75% of the time they run into the boss and it is impossible without either a SUPER cleric, or a SUPER tank.. and so everyone quits then after failing a dozen times.. That is a HUGE "discouragement" to new players..
While yes, there's been many changes for good and those bad things too.. - MMO populations fluctuate. The only consistency is that there will be threads fortelling the doom of <insert mmo here>.
And of course the other constant of people assuring everyone everything is fine all the way up until the f2p announcement.
i just take a look at the AH to see if the population is going down, a stack of R5s has gone from 23k ad pre x2 evento, to 12k ad today...in 1week -40% of value..
that means simply ppl are not buying R5s anymore or that there are no ppl arown?
figure it out by yourself, but i have aa clear image in my mind
[...R5 stack price...] Though it is kind of funny that it is currently cheaper than when it was 2x rp.
...absolutely not: There are quite some smart duckheads who have tons of liquid AD at their disposal and use these to buy tons of R5s the moment the news of a 2x RP breaks - and immediately afterwards put them up with a 50-100% higher price...
...cryptocapitalistic profiteering at it's best.
On a different note, and on topic: I personally find it somewhat lame to pervert "Player numbers decline" to "doomsaying". This is neither objective, nor helpful, and can maybe be seen as an attempt of "denial by ridiculing". There are several MMOs that are vital, alive and kicking with one fifth or even less of the player count. Though those are somewhat different, and totally refrain from crippling open and stealth nerfs aiming to squeeze money out of "serious" players, P2W marketing, etc., the increase of which IMHO further appalled a noticeable fraction of the community...
But even though Cryptic prefers to keep the actual player attendance top secret, the events following Mod 6 release seem to indicate that the Steam players' curve does indeed represent the overall trend very well, maybe even underrepresents it. After all, the in game observation and the friends-lists' and guild rosters' first-hand data development matches that, too...
What the Steam server count does reflect very well is that with the Mod 6 advent, and the subsequent non-amelioration and indifference to obvious mistakes, bugs, glitches,... ...the game has rather aprubtly lost 30% of it's player count. Nothing more an nothing less. Ofc some will probably come back, but the overall downhill trend has steepened.
Des this doom the game? I definitely hope not, but it is IMHO a warning sign regarding the popularity of the changes made with Mod 6...
So, I'm still waiting full of anticipation whether there will be some reaction. What I do see is pre-marketing for the novel dimensions of grind Strongholds will bring, and ever intensifying and rather thinly veiled steps toward Whale's World...
...and even promotional promises are deemed not wrthy keeping. Doh.
yeah i don't think the game is "dead" at all.. just.. cut way down in population which leads to lots of issues, and can be a cascading thing.. with less people you have less opportunity got groups in PvP or PvE.. and as that happens people may just stop playing/trying because grinding away at 70 is no longer much fun either..
i personally like playing still but finding a decent PvE group is.. well a HAMSTER shoot.. and PvP can be even more frustrating with the cheaters and premades..
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Comments
This is illogical. It doesn't matter what percentage of the total population comes from Steam, all that matters is whether this is a statistically significant sample size. 6,000 players very much is statistically significant. The total game population could be 10,000 or it could be 100,000, it doesn't matter. This is a large enough group that it can be considered representative of the whole. The FDA typically conducts clinical trials on humans with sample sizes orders of magnitude smaller than this.
This is valid. There could be some as of yet unknown third global factor here, possibly seasonal changes as suggested. It's nearly impossible to prove causation with statistics, only correlation, so it could technically just be a coincidence that the population dropped after the release. This isn't something that can really be proved 100% one way or the other I imagine.
So another valid point was brought up earlier: they have been heavily encouraging players to switch to Arc by no longer allowing code redemption through the website. They have also been discouraging players playing through Steam by not counting purchases made that way for the first time buyer's pack and also binding zen store items to account for Steam players. (Yes, it's true you don't need to actually launch it through Arc to avoid these restrictions, but you do need to have the Arc Client downloaded and installed, so it's fair to say people are at least somewhat more likely to use Arc due to these factors.)
What this adds up to is there could be a population that used to play on Steam but has switched to playing through Arc. (So yes, if you used to launch the game before Mod 6 through Steam but no longer do now for any reason, you will be skewing this data.)
The question then becomes: of the third of players who no longer play through Steam, is there a significant portion of them who still play but through Arc? I think considering the time factor is the best way to answer that. (Obviously, releasing similar Arc user statistics would be best, but I don't see that happening.)
I could be wrong about this, but I believe the "First Time Buyer's Pack" restriction and the "zen store purchases are bound" restriction have been in place long before mod 6 launched. I think it's safe to say that most people who were content with these restrictions before mod 6 are probably still content with them after, as I don't think the mod exacerbated them in any large way.
That leaves the possibility of people switching over due to needing to redeem a promo key. This I'm less confident about. Were there any promo keys in this period which were given out in a large number? I honestly don't recall off the top of my head. I would say however that there have been a number of Arc-only promo codes in the past, so for one to have an impact it would need to be significantly more enticing or reach a larger audience than all those past promo codes which apparently failed to switch over the 6000-odd Steam population in the past.
tl;dr: Statistical Analysis. Numbers happened. All of this is meaningless because we already know mod 6 flopped. They wouldn't sack the lead designer and make a blog post apologizing for the module if the player base wasn't dropping. I just like numbers.
Many old time players are gone and there is less people then ever to run content with... not that it matters, there isnt any incentive to run most things anyways.. a whopping 3-6k most runs.. woot. sheesh.
Here is a news flash.. when there is almost no reason to run things.. no one will. They went overboard in slashing rewards and the results are dismal.
I haven't played a single game where there hasn't been someone acting like the doomsayer in the first act of NWN SoU and I sent him to plague ridden Neverwinter :P
If you want to be able to measure whether the ship is sinking for sure go to PE and start reporting external sellers, because the surest way to know a ship is truly sinking is when the rats start making off into the sunset.
It's natural that a new Mods always come with a peak and a dropoff after, but the game has been pretty stable on Steam over the months, but lost ~30% players after Mod 6. In my eyes that's pretty telling.
Do the Steam charts show any kind of peak for Mod 6. Or just downhill all the way?
Last I checked, you couldn't buy zen through steam, maybe all those downhill statistics are installing Arc so they can buy zen, ca-ching.
http://www.arcgames.com/en/games/neverwinter/news/detail/3039133-3-million-players-slain-in-neverwinter
Doesn't matter; that's when the PlayStation version is released.
highly unlikely. I can't imagine a huge bunch of constant active neverwinter pc gamers changing to an inferior version of the game and loose all the stuff they already earned.
And where reason fails insults follow. Judging the context by your signature. There are better ways to vent frustration, however well earned they may be.
Did you read the part that says "particularly newer players" and "in part"? People that started within that last few months who couldn't catch up with the well-geared, AD-rich players would see a fresh start as an opportunity to get in from the beginning (whether that reasoning is correct or not is another topic.). This happens frequently with any MMO that opens new separate servers. This just happens to be on a different platform, so individual preference on that will also play a part in the decision.
Here is an interesting thought. Module 6 is specifically designed to be gated at a 35'ish day farm for Tier 2 gear (thanks to the cache system). This means that the population decrease in the first month are people who either tried the game and did not like it, or got to end game and decided the T2 gear farm wasn't attractive enough for them to complete it (yes some of us completed it much faster than 35 days but it required a very low return 1/3-2/3 eTOS farming which I painfully did).
Another indicator of less incoming revenue is the AD exchange. Mod 6 did not bring in the typical ZEN influx from a new Mod. As a result Zen still sold at 500AD each. We did get a slight dip in price on the first RP weekend; however we didn't see the price of zen drop this past RP weekend (the backlog volume did drop a bit). The Module 5 release got ZEN down to around 470 each. An argument can be made that AD is less useful since you cannot buy BIS gear, but RP should be filling that income void and it obviously isn't. There remains much more AD in game than ZEN. That's meaningful when you consider how much harder it is to earn AD in this module than it was in the previous modules. Getting the daily RAD cap is easy, but getting much beyond that is difficult since dungeons are dropping only BOA/BOC gear.
Also note the quick price drops on lvl 70 artifact belts/necks implying more availability than demand. Belts were much more expensive in Mod 4 and the price remained high throughout the module.
Did you read the part that says "particularly newer players" and "in part"? People that started within that last few months who couldn't catch up with the well-geared, AD-rich players would see a fresh start as an opportunity to get in from the beginning (whether that reasoning is correct or not is another topic.). This happens frequently with any MMO that opens new separate servers. This just happens to be on a different platform, so individual preference on that will also play a part in the decision.
[/quote]
Have you some examples to support your argument or is this only a assumption becauae this are different demographics.
I 100% agree. There used to be throngs of players on at ALL times, Anytime I logged on, all I had to do was to LFG for anything and I was invited in seconds. I used to see at least 5 to 7 instances of PE that had 40 players, not anymore.
The way to make sure that the business succeeds is to reassess what has been done lately and back-pedal... correct the action with something to boost the desires of the players left... to stay.
As Newton's 3rd Law of Motion states... Every action has an equal and opposite reaction.
That also works with business. Which is why FINE-TUNING, almost imperceptible change, is needed instead of grand sweeping changes. Move big... break/bounce big. Each bounce after that has a reduced reaction.
The Buddhists have a different ideal when it comes to this. If you throw a big rock into a pond the ripples have an effect on everything in the water. If you throw a little rock into a pond... there is very little disruption from the ripples.
you can see each module a bump, then a loss for a few months then another bump.. another loss.. etc etc.. and the player base has been faily steady (after a big crash dec 2013, jan, feb 2014.. the avg was around 4k-3k players but after may of this year.. it has not broken 3k players again.. and it is falling off more than it EVER did previously after a module..
the move they (cryptic) have made from pay for "boosts" and "speed" in power to pretty much pay or you never DO get power.. is drastic.. and the way they have screwed new characters over, where 61-70 was annoying before.. now it is an insane joke.. and the fact all the old players already have all the overlevel points for rank4 in power, but the new guys are screwed.. it has scared off most new players once they get up there and realize "wow.. it will take me MONTHS to get to the same SKILL level even vs them, not even considering the gear!"
i am not sure exactly what the endgame/goal is here at this point and it seems "lost" and i am scared it is in upper managements hands and bean counters hands not programers hands at this point.. and the programers are just told
"you will earn this much by doing this... and no i don't really care how players will react.. they will pay to gain the power or they will quit and new people will come"
except i dunno if they will, the "dungeons" were reduced to 3... except the ones with GL requirements, which those are a joke for pugs.. takes 1hr to 3hrs to get in one, then everyone right away checks everyone each others gear score.. and the people with 2500+ decide "oh screw this" and quit when they see people with like 1650.. and then everyone else follows them out.. that happens 2-4 times before a group actually TRIES, which 75% of the time they run into the boss and it is impossible without either a SUPER cleric, or a SUPER tank.. and so everyone quits then after failing a dozen times.. That is a HUGE "discouragement" to new players..
...absolutely not: There are quite some smart duckheads who have tons of liquid AD at their disposal and use these to buy tons of R5s the moment the news of a 2x RP breaks - and immediately afterwards put them up with a 50-100% higher price...
...cryptocapitalistic profiteering at it's best.
On a different note, and on topic: I personally find it somewhat lame to pervert "Player numbers decline" to "doomsaying". This is neither objective, nor helpful, and can maybe be seen as an attempt of "denial by ridiculing". There are several MMOs that are vital, alive and kicking with one fifth or even less of the player count. Though those are somewhat different, and totally refrain from crippling open and stealth nerfs aiming to squeeze money out of "serious" players, P2W marketing, etc., the increase of which IMHO further appalled a noticeable fraction of the community...
But even though Cryptic prefers to keep the actual player attendance top secret, the events following Mod 6 release seem to indicate that the Steam players' curve does indeed represent the overall trend very well, maybe even underrepresents it. After all, the in game observation and the friends-lists' and guild rosters' first-hand data development matches that, too...
What the Steam server count does reflect very well is that with the Mod 6 advent, and the subsequent non-amelioration and indifference to obvious mistakes, bugs, glitches,... ...the game has rather aprubtly lost 30% of it's player count. Nothing more an nothing less. Ofc some will probably come back, but the overall downhill trend has steepened.
Des this doom the game? I definitely hope not, but it is IMHO a warning sign regarding the popularity of the changes made with Mod 6...
So, I'm still waiting full of anticipation whether there will be some reaction. What I do see is pre-marketing for the novel dimensions of grind Strongholds will bring, and ever intensifying and rather thinly veiled steps toward Whale's World...
...and even promotional promises are deemed not wrthy keeping. Doh.
Am I enthused? Have your guess...
i personally like playing still but finding a decent PvE group is.. well a HAMSTER shoot.. and PvP can be even more frustrating with the cheaters and premades..
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