just did some rough calculations - getting one artifact to legendary just doing some daily quests and getting 10k rp a day would take more than a year, somebody said his dragon hoards stopped working after ~15k rp, thats still almost a year for a single artifact....
At 20k rp its 230 days which is around what I get before lol you've had enough get off the server kicks in
0
khimera906Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 898Arc User
edited May 2015
To me bots, grinding and double xp weekends are the symptoms of the same problem - Cryptic's failure to come up with a smart and fair way to monetize the game. They count on our frustration and impatience to earn money. It's not only a bad idea, but it's distracting players from anything good this game has to offer.
What's making the game less enjoyable for me? Neither. It's the refining system that's the problem behind everything. Grinding for RP should not exist in the first place.
I hate dancing with Lady Luck. She always steps on my toes.
Bots and AD exploiters. There's over 700kk of AD being sold outside of the game for $ just from ONE guy. Wonder what they're going to do with all the exploited AD now.
What do you believe causes more harm to your gameplay experience bots or anti botting measures by cryptic, such as leadership delay(thankfully removed), reduced RP drops in foundry, Dragon Hoard nerf, bound RP etc.
I believe that anti botting measures should never harm legit players, even if that means more botting, while botting should be reduced, punishing legit players for "crimes" they didnt commit is just unacceptable.
I read threads name about 10 time and I still can't get.
So this all "pool" and thread is justification of bots, cheatings??
So why u don't start writing like, give FREEDOM for BOTS or something..>>> (sorry for sarcasm)
I never accept any justification when comes cheating, bots/exploit using or exploiting game bugs on purpose.
U say it give players chance to upgrade gear. In which way??? By visiting illegal/**** websites and there reveal ID + passwords and latter write to game support services that someone hacked your account or something similar.... Game is already freaky easy, just simple time killing grinding and nothing.. in game market is full of items, + its easy to get items from game shop too. U can exchange astral diamonds for cash and buy stuffs from premium players shop.
Cheating = cheating and there is no justification.
And as for anti-boting system.. Well before u all start compare things, u should understand. If u lets say stay in channel 10. and there is no bots arround and game server still lagging.. It's could be possible that in other channels bots farming items.
Any security utilities, anti-bot, even hell computer antivirus/antimalware increase game latency. And before normal benchmark u can't say who realy does more harm.
======================================================================== “The masses have never thirsted after truth. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim. Gustave Le Bon. ==================================================
I read threads name about 10 time and I still can't get.
its about what should be a priority - getting rid of bots by any means necessary or giving ppl an enjoyable gaming experience, cause measures like profession delay(smth they removed with mod6) bound rp, limits on Dragon hoard that does close to nothing to bots since they can switch to a different acc but screw up legit players trying to level up their artifacts
or, in short "shoot anybody who might be guilty, even if it means shooting innocent ppl" vs "shoot only when proven guilty, even if that means letting some guilty go"
its about what should be a priority - getting rid of bots by any means necessary or giving ppl an enjoyable gaming experience, cause measures like profession delay(smth they removed with mod6) bound rp, limits on Dragon hoard that does close to nothing to bots since they can switch to a different acc but screw up legit players trying to level up their artifacts
I get in this way.. Deal with bots by all mean or let them be ang give ppl enjoyable gaming experience.
My answer is same.. There can't be justification of cheating. Some guys farm items/AD or some other stuffs normally, and some dudes run bot, and get items without bothering. Actually it even reminded me other mmorpg game, SilkRoad. In time there was more less bot game. In one area 30 bots farming. And it was amusing how lazy players become. Can't do anything without cheating.
or, in short "shoot anybody who might be guilty, even if it means shooting innocent ppl" vs "shoot only when proven guilty, even if that means letting some guilty go"
Well this is tricky part. Support team check game server logs and investigate does it cheated or not.. Usually anti cheating softwares in mmorpg games just suspend account for short time, and support staff after investigation give message to account owner do his account get banned or as usually templated apologising post that his account where suspended by mistake.
In one and other ways, i prefer that game would have normal security.. Because remember this thing goes not only about bots, but also players who use exploit. ..
They shouldn't call it anti-botting but call it anti-player since it hurts the players not the bots.
bots do not appear from nowhere. Players run them from own pc/laptops. And its hurt them too. Even its little, but yet it hurt. And if there will be no security game will be ruined.
======================================================================== “The masses have never thirsted after truth. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim. Gustave Le Bon. ==================================================
Without bots the prices of refinement would too expensive and alienate much of the playerbase. And because cryptic introduced lots more artifacts and did not increase the acquirement of refinement stones the prices would be absurd if there were no bots, they are an important part of our current economy, and no doubt alot of the community would be disgruntled if it changed.
bots are the reason the economy is the way it is. its the reason i got kicked out of a certian channel. they keep rank 5s and 4s cheap who else will farm for them?
bots are the reason the economy is the way it is. its the reason i got kicked out of a certian channel. they keep rank 5s and 4s cheap who else will farm for them?
You do realize that Cryptic is making things harder because of bots? If there was no bots, people would flood the forums about Artifacts requiring too much XP, but with bots it's managable, so whenever they design anything they have take this broken economy in to consideration.
khimera906Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 898Arc User
edited May 2015
It's interesting to see so many people saying bots are a good thing. I don't know if it's sarcasm or ignorance. I understand that it makes your life easier, given the alternative, and it's Cryptic's fault for putting us in the position of needing the bots services in the first place. However, bots are never the answer. The answer is a better refining system, that doesn't need bots, soul crushing grinding, or the cash shop.
I hate dancing with Lady Luck. She always steps on my toes.
You do realize that Cryptic is making things harder because of bots? If there was no bots, people would flood the forums about Artifacts requiring too much XP, but with bots it's managable, so whenever they design anything they have take this broken economy in to consideration.
I can say fact direct in face. And fact is that players are too lazy. Also marker overflowed with artifacts.
We have gear peace types, comon, uncomon, rare, epic, legendary and now mystic.. Its like dafq. Uncomon is like comon trash. Uncomon is something like minimal gear category. Then goes epic, legendary items also there are too many of them. And hell now way too fast lv up to mystic.
Compared to game like lineage 2 where rare items where RARE not comon. There where bosses called Grand boss, which respawn once per week, require strong guild and it dropping only 1 rare item, Imagine clan come to take boss, they fight., it took hour before boss spawn to kick other guilds out of area. Then we faced boss, it took 2+ hours. and more than 50 players to take boss down. And then ony 1 RARE item dropped. and from all our guild only 1 received that rare item.. And such items have values. Also by enchanting them they can broke. That I could call rare item and which have value..
Here in neverwinter, are no rare items. Way too EASY to GET them and MAX UP Also trust me, without bot u will have reasonable in game economy, rare items will have more value. And players also focus to farm them.
It's interesting to see so many people saying bots are a good thing. I don't know if it's sarcasm or ignorance. I understand that it makes your life easier, given the alternative, and it's Cryptic's fault for putting us in the position of needing the bots services in the first place. However, bots are never the answer. The answer is a better refining system, that doesn't need bots, soul crushing grinding, or the cash shop.
Well peoples who say bots are good, are lazy ones who want skip part of game. Current generation of game players are lazy HAMSTER who can't stand of challenge, and willing to use any ways to be OWNER> thats include bots, illegal utilities, or exploiting glitches/bugs.
Now they say bots are ok, interesting what will be next on justification list. Openly abusing game glitches, using exploits???
Anyone who dare think that cheating is OK. should face hammer.
======================================================================== “The masses have never thirsted after truth. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim. Gustave Le Bon. ==================================================
here are the player numbers
Chronos 4203 players
- Naia 2780 players
- Shilen 1648 players
- Magmeld 1131 players
- Bartz 1203 players
- Talking Island (KR) 4690 players
- Gludio (KR) 2716 players
while i'm unsure how many players are actively in neverwinter i believe it may be more than this. so based on that premise i would argue that people prefer easy over insanely difficult.
neverwinter currently has 10s of thousands players on at any given time trust me. that game is HAMSTER please dont make comparisons of this game to games that are going into the ground like lineage2. because no matter what you may think those numbers means there is barely any profit going into the game it will be closed down within 2 years max.
I can say fact direct in face. And fact is that players are too lazy. Also marker overflowed with artifacts. .
its just the name of rarity, doesnt really matter, and i dislike 10+ player content, its not the difficulty, but getting raid together with somebody having to pee every 30 sec is a pain
as i said somewhere - one of the biggest problems is that progression is RP not equipment based
here are the player numbers
Chronos 4203 players
- Naia 2780 players
- Shilen 1648 players
- Magmeld 1131 players
- Bartz 1203 players
- Talking Island (KR) 4690 players
- Gludio (KR) 2716 players
while i'm unsure how many players are actively in neverwinter i believe it may be more than this. so based on that premise i would argue that people prefer easy over insanely difficult.
here are the player numbers
Chronos 4203 players
- Naia 2780 players
- Shilen 1648 players
- Magmeld 1131 players
- Bartz 1203 players
- Talking Island (KR) 4690 players
- Gludio (KR) 2716 players
while i'm unsure how many players are actively in neverwinter i believe it may be more than this. so based on that premise i would argue that people prefer easy over insanely difficult.
dude, lets not start this stuff like which game is better or not..
But I bringged this game just to compare values of rare items here in neverwinter and there in that game. I can bring enough of other games, but this is neverwinter forum, and talk about bots.
p.s And if u still willing talk about lineage 2, sure just give me know in PM.
======================================================================== “The masses have never thirsted after truth. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim. Gustave Le Bon. ==================================================
Steam is a VERY small subset of the total population. i certainly didn't join from steam. so assuming thats 1/3 of the total population then 10k is about right. it certainly feels like 10k with all of the performance issues.
on PE its below 3k ppl so might be a bit below 10k
I don't like bots spamming chat and exploiting the game. But I still see the nerf to Dragon hoard as unneeded. the RP from dragons hoard is all BTA, so its not like they can make a profit off it. While REAL players who used Dhoards to farm their RP now have a massive problem getting any.
I also disliked the binding of enchanted keys. its not like they were cheaper on the AH than the zen was for them, but a lot of people do want zen primarily for keys, so if keys were unbound again I can imagine the zax prices going down.
Increasing the ICD of Dhoards in foundries, thats fine, but foundries do need some sort of viable reward, Make the foundry chest at the end of eligible foundries give unbound (or bound) RP (2 peri , 2 aqua, 1 sapphire, or 1 opal.)
If a bot cannot survive in a game, it'll just go to a different. Same, if a player cannot survive in a game, he/she will go to a different game.
Now, which is more harmful, driving away the bots, or driving away the players?
All the anti-boting measures they've implemented so far either also hurt players, or in some cases hurt players more than they do bots. So what they've accomplished really is drive away players, while not necessarily driving away bots.
0
zebularMember, Neverwinter Moderator, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 15,270Community Moderator
edited May 2015
Using Steam or Arc's display of players as a show of population is inherently a flawed idea for one does not need to run Steam or ARC even if installed through either of them. All those numbers show is how many choose to play with ARC or Steam running in the background AND has it installed through ARC or Steam respectively.
Back on topic however, I do agree that I do not like it when as a player, I am constantly seeing anti-botting measures hindering my enjoyment of the game. However, I don't feel it is terribly bad here. Just in a few regards, like Dragonhoard Enchant drop rates, making Locked Box Keys bound, etc. Alas, this is the world we live in, where companies must constantly weight the need to combat bad behavior while providing service legitimate users desire.
As a casual and time limited player I guess I'm lucky in that the only anti-botting measure that's annoyed me is the leadership delay, now gone. The rest listed don't really affect me since they're progression related and my progression goals are low due to lack of time. I don't pay to make things faster, I pay for content. As a result, bot spam has been more annoying for me over the course of my time playing Neverwinter.
Wholeheartedly agree with the premise that "anti botting measures should never harm legit players". The reality however is that attempts to resolve exploits and I'll lump bots in that group, regularly impact on the legit player, usually negatively. I don't like it but I don't have any bright ideas about how to change things.
Using Steam or Arc's display of players as a show of population is inherently a flawed idea for one does not need to run Steam or ARC even if installed through either of them. All those numbers show is how many choose to play with ARC or Steam running in the background AND has it installed through ARC or Steam respectively.
Back on topic however, I do agree that I do not like it when as a player, I am constantly seeing anti-botting measures hindering my enjoyment of the game. However, I don't feel it is terribly bad here. Just in a few regards, like Dragonhoard Enchant drop rates, making Locked Box Keys bound, etc. Alas, this is the world we live in, where companies must constantly weight the need to combat bad behavior while providing service legitimate users desire.
steam should be a large portion, so is arc, i think last time i reinstalled there was only steam or arc available so most ppl should be on those platforms + PE is an indicator with less than 3k ppl there(81 instance @ 45 ppl max, and many were half empty) ~10k is a fair guess i remember there being ~100 instances @ 100ppl
If a bot cannot survive in a game, it'll just go to a different. Same, if a player cannot survive in a game, he/she will go to a different game.
Now, which is more harmful, driving away the bots, or driving away the players?
All the anti-boting measures they've implemented so far either also hurt players, or in some cases hurt players more than they do bots. So what they've accomplished really is drive away players, while not necessarily driving away bots.
There is no perfect security system, nProtection, hackShield, Inovas' Frost. Any system security can be bypassed/cracked, only question is when. Also security utilities simply watching characters behavior and measure it, if it exceed normal players capability, then utility suspect that player cheating.
Anti cheating/antibot utilities just put players in suspected ones list. and support staff handle investigation. At least thats how work support team in certain publishing companies.
======================================================================== “The masses have never thirsted after truth. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim. Gustave Le Bon. ==================================================
i play without ARC. ARC causes problems with my video card.
i uninstalled the entire game. rebooted, reinstalled and before i started playing i went to the neverwinter_en directory and ran neverwinter directly from there. i then replaced all of the ARC shortcuts with one to the neverwinter executable from that directory and i haven't had a graphics glitch since. it plays smoother. not sure if thats correlation or causation, but it worked.
Using Steam or Arc's display of players as a show of population is inherently a flawed idea for one does not need to run Steam or ARC even if installed through either of them. All those numbers show is how many choose to play with ARC or Steam running in the background AND has it installed through ARC or Steam respectively.
Back on topic however, I do agree that I do not like it when as a player, I am constantly seeing anti-botting measures hindering my enjoyment of the game. However, I don't feel it is terribly bad here. Just in a few regards, like Dragonhoard Enchant drop rates, making Locked Box Keys bound, etc. Alas, this is the world we live in, where companies must constantly weight the need to combat bad behavior while providing service legitimate users desire.
It's a _potentially_ flawed method. Should be taken with a grain of caution.
But as Cryptic deems it wiser not to publish their super accurate figures, one has to take the data one can get. I'll happily be convinced of the wrongness of that subgroup's representative behaviour, but alas, even though Cryptics data might show that the population has constantly risen all that time, they prefer to keep that a secret.
The use of subgroup analysis is a statistical method that is standard e.g. in election polling. And there 5000-people polls are - validated subgroup selection presumed - accurate enough to predict the results of the vote of tens of millions to a quarter percentage accuracy (odd election systems like in the UK left outside for the moment). Here we have a 5000 (simultaneously logged-in) players, so in reality the subgroup can even be assumed to be in the order of twenty to forty thousand people.
Also: Why would I (I'm a Steam user) suddenly stop using it? I'm running under Steam because this way I can easily keep track of all my old buddies from other games, it's mainly a meta-chat for me - which, yes, sometimes makes me change to other games to play those with an old friend from three games back. Neither has Steam changed in any way, nor does it cause any problems in connectivity etc., nor do I wish to waive this service or abstain from using it, why should I? Hence I run all games that support it (and don't have technical issues with that) under Steam, as the overlay just makes that easier than Alt-Tabbing to and fro. I can keep running maps and still guide a Friend through e.g. the Borderlands Skill menu, as far as my memory works along, ofc.
Of course there's no certainty, neither here nor there (elections), but that doesn't make your refute in any way truer. Neither can I prove that the Steam subgroup is representative, nor can you that it's not. I think most people understand this, but the fraction of players using steam is way larger than the fraction of voters used to predict elections, so the sheer numbers generate a certain reliability. A documented, numbers-based dementi from Cryptic might be a different thing...
...but it is not, as you word it, an "inherently flawed" method. It might be flawed, but there's little plausible reason to assume the Steam-users behave completely differently than the rest of the NW players.
BTW e.g. PE instance counting leads to similar results.
Comments
What's making the game less enjoyable for me? Neither. It's the refining system that's the problem behind everything. Grinding for RP should not exist in the first place.
I read threads name about 10 time and I still can't get.
So this all "pool" and thread is justification of bots, cheatings??
So why u don't start writing like, give FREEDOM for BOTS or something..>>> (sorry for sarcasm)
I never accept any justification when comes cheating, bots/exploit using or exploiting game bugs on purpose.
U say it give players chance to upgrade gear. In which way??? By visiting illegal/**** websites and there reveal ID + passwords and latter write to game support services that someone hacked your account or something similar.... Game is already freaky easy, just simple time killing grinding and nothing.. in game market is full of items, + its easy to get items from game shop too. U can exchange astral diamonds for cash and buy stuffs from premium players shop.
Cheating = cheating and there is no justification.
And as for anti-boting system.. Well before u all start compare things, u should understand. If u lets say stay in channel 10. and there is no bots arround and game server still lagging.. It's could be possible that in other channels bots farming items.
Any security utilities, anti-bot, even hell computer antivirus/antimalware increase game latency. And before normal benchmark u can't say who realy does more harm.
“The masses have never thirsted after truth. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim.
Gustave Le Bon.
==================================================
its about what should be a priority - getting rid of bots by any means necessary or giving ppl an enjoyable gaming experience, cause measures like profession delay(smth they removed with mod6) bound rp, limits on Dragon hoard that does close to nothing to bots since they can switch to a different acc but screw up legit players trying to level up their artifacts
or, in short "shoot anybody who might be guilty, even if it means shooting innocent ppl" vs "shoot only when proven guilty, even if that means letting some guilty go"
My answer is same.. There can't be justification of cheating. Some guys farm items/AD or some other stuffs normally, and some dudes run bot, and get items without bothering. Actually it even reminded me other mmorpg game, SilkRoad. In time there was more less bot game. In one area 30 bots farming. And it was amusing how lazy players become. Can't do anything without cheating.
Well this is tricky part. Support team check game server logs and investigate does it cheated or not.. Usually anti cheating softwares in mmorpg games just suspend account for short time, and support staff after investigation give message to account owner do his account get banned or as usually templated apologising post that his account where suspended by mistake.
In one and other ways, i prefer that game would have normal security.. Because remember this thing goes not only about bots, but also players who use exploit. ..
bots do not appear from nowhere. Players run them from own pc/laptops. And its hurt them too. Even its little, but yet it hurt. And if there will be no security game will be ruined.
“The masses have never thirsted after truth. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim.
Gustave Le Bon.
==================================================
bots are the reason the economy is the way it is. its the reason i got kicked out of a certian channel. they keep rank 5s and 4s cheap who else will farm for them?
You do realize that Cryptic is making things harder because of bots? If there was no bots, people would flood the forums about Artifacts requiring too much XP, but with bots it's managable, so whenever they design anything they have take this broken economy in to consideration.
I can say fact direct in face. And fact is that players are too lazy. Also marker overflowed with artifacts.
We have gear peace types, comon, uncomon, rare, epic, legendary and now mystic.. Its like dafq. Uncomon is like comon trash. Uncomon is something like minimal gear category. Then goes epic, legendary items also there are too many of them. And hell now way too fast lv up to mystic.
Compared to game like lineage 2 where rare items where RARE not comon. There where bosses called Grand boss, which respawn once per week, require strong guild and it dropping only 1 rare item, Imagine clan come to take boss, they fight., it took hour before boss spawn to kick other guilds out of area. Then we faced boss, it took 2+ hours. and more than 50 players to take boss down. And then ony 1 RARE item dropped. and from all our guild only 1 received that rare item.. And such items have values. Also by enchanting them they can broke. That I could call rare item and which have value..
Here in neverwinter, are no rare items. Way too EASY to GET them and MAX UP Also trust me, without bot u will have reasonable in game economy, rare items will have more value. And players also focus to farm them.
Well peoples who say bots are good, are lazy ones who want skip part of game. Current generation of game players are lazy HAMSTER who can't stand of challenge, and willing to use any ways to be OWNER> thats include bots, illegal utilities, or exploiting glitches/bugs.
Now they say bots are ok, interesting what will be next on justification list. Openly abusing game glitches, using exploits???
Anyone who dare think that cheating is OK. should face hammer.
“The masses have never thirsted after truth. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim.
Gustave Le Bon.
==================================================
neverwinter currently has 10s of thousands players on at any given time trust me. that game is HAMSTER please dont make comparisons of this game to games that are going into the ground like lineage2. because no matter what you may think those numbers means there is barely any profit going into the game it will be closed down within 2 years max.
its just the name of rarity, doesnt really matter, and i dislike 10+ player content, its not the difficulty, but getting raid together with somebody having to pee every 30 sec is a pain
as i said somewhere - one of the biggest problems is that progression is RP not equipment based
on steam neverwinter http://steamcharts.com/app/109600
dude, lets not start this stuff like which game is better or not..
But I bringged this game just to compare values of rare items here in neverwinter and there in that game. I can bring enough of other games, but this is neverwinter forum, and talk about bots.
p.s And if u still willing talk about lineage 2, sure just give me know in PM.
“The masses have never thirsted after truth. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim.
Gustave Le Bon.
==================================================
on PE its below 3k ppl so might be a bit below 10k
I also disliked the binding of enchanted keys. its not like they were cheaper on the AH than the zen was for them, but a lot of people do want zen primarily for keys, so if keys were unbound again I can imagine the zax prices going down.
Increasing the ICD of Dhoards in foundries, thats fine, but foundries do need some sort of viable reward, Make the foundry chest at the end of eligible foundries give unbound (or bound) RP (2 peri , 2 aqua, 1 sapphire, or 1 opal.)
Drunken Goose of MidNight Express. - 3.3k Paladin , 3.6k GWF , 3.1k GF,
Now, which is more harmful, driving away the bots, or driving away the players?
All the anti-boting measures they've implemented so far either also hurt players, or in some cases hurt players more than they do bots. So what they've accomplished really is drive away players, while not necessarily driving away bots.
Back on topic however, I do agree that I do not like it when as a player, I am constantly seeing anti-botting measures hindering my enjoyment of the game. However, I don't feel it is terribly bad here. Just in a few regards, like Dragonhoard Enchant drop rates, making Locked Box Keys bound, etc. Alas, this is the world we live in, where companies must constantly weight the need to combat bad behavior while providing service legitimate users desire.
[ Support Center • Rules & Policies and Guidelines • ARC ToS • Guild Recruitment Guidelines | FR DM Since 1993 ]
Wholeheartedly agree with the premise that "anti botting measures should never harm legit players". The reality however is that attempts to resolve exploits and I'll lump bots in that group, regularly impact on the legit player, usually negatively. I don't like it but I don't have any bright ideas about how to change things.
steam should be a large portion, so is arc, i think last time i reinstalled there was only steam or arc available so most ppl should be on those platforms + PE is an indicator with less than 3k ppl there(81 instance @ 45 ppl max, and many were half empty) ~10k is a fair guess i remember there being ~100 instances @ 100ppl
There is no perfect security system, nProtection, hackShield, Inovas' Frost. Any system security can be bypassed/cracked, only question is when. Also security utilities simply watching characters behavior and measure it, if it exceed normal players capability, then utility suspect that player cheating.
Anti cheating/antibot utilities just put players in suspected ones list. and support staff handle investigation. At least thats how work support team in certain publishing companies.
“The masses have never thirsted after truth. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim.
Gustave Le Bon.
==================================================
how do i do this?
It's a _potentially_ flawed method. Should be taken with a grain of caution.
But as Cryptic deems it wiser not to publish their super accurate figures, one has to take the data one can get. I'll happily be convinced of the wrongness of that subgroup's representative behaviour, but alas, even though Cryptics data might show that the population has constantly risen all that time, they prefer to keep that a secret.
The use of subgroup analysis is a statistical method that is standard e.g. in election polling. And there 5000-people polls are - validated subgroup selection presumed - accurate enough to predict the results of the vote of tens of millions to a quarter percentage accuracy (odd election systems like in the UK left outside for the moment). Here we have a 5000 (simultaneously logged-in) players, so in reality the subgroup can even be assumed to be in the order of twenty to forty thousand people.
Also: Why would I (I'm a Steam user) suddenly stop using it? I'm running under Steam because this way I can easily keep track of all my old buddies from other games, it's mainly a meta-chat for me - which, yes, sometimes makes me change to other games to play those with an old friend from three games back. Neither has Steam changed in any way, nor does it cause any problems in connectivity etc., nor do I wish to waive this service or abstain from using it, why should I? Hence I run all games that support it (and don't have technical issues with that) under Steam, as the overlay just makes that easier than Alt-Tabbing to and fro. I can keep running maps and still guide a Friend through e.g. the Borderlands Skill menu, as far as my memory works along, ofc.
Of course there's no certainty, neither here nor there (elections), but that doesn't make your refute in any way truer. Neither can I prove that the Steam subgroup is representative, nor can you that it's not. I think most people understand this, but the fraction of players using steam is way larger than the fraction of voters used to predict elections, so the sheer numbers generate a certain reliability. A documented, numbers-based dementi from Cryptic might be a different thing...
...but it is not, as you word it, an "inherently flawed" method. It might be flawed, but there's little plausible reason to assume the Steam-users behave completely differently than the rest of the NW players.
BTW e.g. PE instance counting leads to similar results.