Refining Rank 8, 9 and 10 enchants.

bucklittle

Does anybody know the success chance to refine these enchants without using a coalescent ward?

shurato2099

From the Wiki:

Rank 7 to Rank 8: 25%, Greater Mark of Potency + matching Rank 7 enchantment
Rank 8 to Rank 9: 20%, Greater Mark of Potency + matching Rank 8 enchantment
Rank 9 to Rank 10: 10%, Greater Mark of Potency + maching Rank 9 enchantment

Given the low probability of success and the cost of the matching enchantments you'll definitely want either Coalescent Wards or a -lot- of Preservation Wards.

bucklittle

I'm asking for the true chance, or an estimate of the true chance with data to back any estimate. I'm not asking for the displayed chance, I can easily find that information.

frishter

shurato2099 wrote: »

Given the low probability of success and the cost of the matching enchantments you'll definitely want either Coalescent Wards or a -lot- of Preservation Wards.

Don't recommend coal wards. Those are for weapon/armour enchants. Anyone that uses coal wards makes me die a little inside. 10 pres wards are 100 zen/50,000 ad max. With 10% chance, you may very will need less than 10, but given bad luck you can end up using more. But you'd have to be INCREDIBLY unlucky to have to use 100 of the things to match the price of coal wards. Of course remember to always put a pres ward after a failed attempt.

mfgamesys

Recently I made a rank 10 starting with rank 8's to rank 10 i used about 25 pres wards total.

shurato2099

Except, as has been belatedly pointed out, this isn't what the OP is looking for.

lazaroth666

Hey,

I have crafted many, many r10, I would say I've used in each r10 from 1 up to 40 pwards max, it's always going to be cheaper than using a cward.

cromejohnsen

atm 1 coalescent ward is worth 100 preservation wards from zen shop given the auction house price and ad to zen exchange.

drowbynight

bucklittle wrote: »

I'm asking for the true chance, or an estimate of the true chance with data to back any estimate. I'm not asking for the displayed chance, I can easily find that information.

That's an interesting question, maybe you can answer yourself by trying out in the preview server and work out the true success %s and post the results. Otherwise, I doubt anyone can give a definite % based on success results in the live server unless he or she has done refining for R8,9 and 10 regularly and record the success/failure results. And you probably need a few sets of results from different people to get a better average, just in case someone was exceptionally lucky or unlucky, right?

bucklittle

I've not done enough to get an accurate estimate. And I've not recorded how many pres words are used. The only notes I've taken is weather is takes more pres wards than 100/X where X = the integer value of the percentage value. Crafting 39 rank 8, 9, and 10s have all taken more than 100/X, in a row, which has less than a 0.00000000018% (1.8 * 10^-10) chance for more than 100/X attempts to happen 39 times in a row, assuming the displayed values are accurate.

I don't know the real chance for it to happen because I haven't taken into account that 8, 9, and 10's all have a different chance for this to happen, but the real chance is closer to 2/3 that number, around 0.00000000012% (1.2 * 10^-10)

Keep in mind these assume that the chance of success could happen on any attempt after 100/X, and that the true value for chance to happen, assuming the displayed values are accurate, is actually much lower still. I've had multi upgrades take more than double 100/X, for example my last r10 took 23 preservation wards to create, or, more than 22 preservation wards were used.

frishter

True chance should be the same as listed above. Just that some people will get it in a small handful of wards as I've sometimes heard, or sometimes you use a crapload.

rashylewizz

bucklittle wrote: »

I'm asking for the true chance, or an estimate of the true chance with data to back any estimate. I'm not asking for the displayed chance, I can easily find that information.

The problem with "true chance" is that one would need enough sample size for it to be statistically significant.

I have never seen proof of anyone refining that many enchants.

I'm afraid your responses would only come from people with an agenda (either those who are miffed about recent failures and want to rant or less likely those who were lucky and want to gloat).

bucklittle

That's is why an estimate would also be good. We shouldn't need a very large sample to found out the true value lies within a 1%, or .5% range, or even smaller range.

zebular

. . . Closing this for all it does is promote misinformation and suggests propaganda. If you don't think the "true value" is what is listed, make a bug report in game.