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failure in refining
saini50990
Member Posts: 309 Arc User
hi guys,
today was refining radiant rank 6 to make rank 7 , i had 4 rank 6 enchants ready to upgrade ,i had 4 preservation wards and bought 20 more and the astonishing and sad thing is using all those wards i only got 2 rank 7 enchant which has success rate of 30% , i think cryptic has to give reason as to why i lost so many wards just to make 1 rank 7 with 30% success rate which means out of 10 wards i get 3 success.
today was refining radiant rank 6 to make rank 7 , i had 4 rank 6 enchants ready to upgrade ,i had 4 preservation wards and bought 20 more and the astonishing and sad thing is using all those wards i only got 2 rank 7 enchant which has success rate of 30% , i think cryptic has to give reason as to why i lost so many wards just to make 1 rank 7 with 30% success rate which means out of 10 wards i get 3 success.
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No, it does not mean that out of 10 wards you get 3 successes - a 30% success change basically means that on the average you would get 3 successes for 10 wards, but you might have gotten none (quite unlikely, but still possible) or 10 (very unlikely, but also possible.
It is random.
It doesn not work that way. That's the probability of having a success, 30 out of 100 tries. What it means is that still you might attempt to refine and fail 50 times in a row and there's nobody to blame.
But most people will see 30% chance to succeed and expect success on at least every 3rd try*, and be confused/angry when it doesn't work out that way. Players don't get to see the data for all the rng based calculations, which are very likely to show that a 30% chance does happen 30% of the time when considering the entire playerbase.
*Simple math says 30% is aproximately 1/3rd and everyone wants to be a bit lucky: "I'm sure my lottery ticket will win."
A little hard math is in order to explain the whole issue.
Acording to OP, he had 24 wards, used them all, (thus failing 24 times) and got 2 successes. Success rate is 30%, AKA. 0.3.
For a 70% failure rate, the chances of failing all the tries is: 0.7^26= 0,0093875 %
The chance of having only 1 success is: 0,7^25*0,3*(26!/25!)=0,104%
The chance of having 2 successes is: 0,7^24*0,3^2*(26!/24!*2!)=0,56%.
The whole thing tallies almost 0,7%. While this is indeed a low chance, it is not really something extraordinary. With hundreds and hundreds of players refining their enchants, many of these instances are bound to happen.
Random is random. And it is not always a good idea.
0.25^7 = 0.000061 or 0.0061%
It's only happened once to me, but something that unlikely will almost be guaranteed to happen multiple times once you get enough players.
1111111
Is NOT the same probability of seeing 7 1s in a row in this sequence length:
0010100111010110111101010100000010011111111001010010100010001000111011010100101101010110111110111
I usually have to explain this to people in every mmo I play, but I think the nature kits actually does a good job of making it easy to understand.
You can't just take all your results, toss out the vast majority of them, put a window around the results you want, and go that had a probability of .000061 of occuring. The probability of your next 7 kits not opening is .000061. The probability that there will be 7 kits that dont open in a row approaches 1 as the number of kits you open approaches infinity.
No, it's not. RNG algorithms have been around for decades and Cryptic absolutely, positively DID NOT write their own RNG algorithms. Statistics is just something a majority of people fail to understand.
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Except for the guy who made this system and thought the possibility of failing 50 times on upgrading an enchant is resonable.
That's the problem with RNG and people like you who want to give an explanation.
You see when you try to deduce the chance of something, you're perfectly fine with doing it from a specific sample, but once know that value and someone tries to point out otherwise you will ALWAYS CLAIM THE SAMPLE ISN'T BIG ENOUGH.
Numbers are irrelevant, if i can come and say i upgraded 1 million enchantments and got 70k upgrades with 20% chance you'll say i should upgrade 10 mil and the number will even out at 20 but IT WON'T, my enchantments don't have memory.
And this is what makes the whole thing freaking despicable.
Then complain about the system, not the statistics
We have showed you that there is nothing "buggy" in what happenned to you. Does that mean that I agree with the system? ABSOLUTELY NOT!! Leaving everything in Goddess Luck's hand is a sure way to frustrate players, and should be avoided like the plague.
I remember a TBS game where a unit had 50% chance of avoiding any attack. Do you think that the devs said "random is random"? No, they didn't. They made it so, after three hits or three misses, the next attack was a guaranteed miss or hit, correspondingly. Random? nope. Balanced, fun, and good? yup.
Over time, it evens out.
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Oh yes, absolutely. That is, unless it doesn't.
https://forums.warframe.com/index.php?/topic/128402-rng-algorithm-bugschanges/
2 important points you are missing.
1 - There are RNG applications and then there is the application of RNG. You need to properly seed, clear variables etc. It would not be unheard of to have bugs in the application of RNG such that you are repeating the same pseudorandom sequence over and over. Thus if your sequence happens to be one with no or below average high rolls, you will fall outside a proper distribution no matter what your sample size.
2 - RNG is pseudorandom. Studies have been done where they were able to pick out patterns. Most properly designed games use failsafes for their "pseudorandom" rewards. Thus for each failure it increases the odds for the next roll, up till the point you succeed. Thus it sets a reasonable ceiling on failures.
You have not shown anything. All you did was point out that it is not impossible for it to occur. Unless you looked through their code and saw that there were no uninitialized variables, improper seeded, etc etc you have not proven that it wasn't a bug.
To be honest, using pseudorandom number generators without a failsafe is "buggy".
Think about for a sec. Proper game design that allows a 70% chance of success should be designed around a normal sample size that any player will encounter. What I mean is, no one except bots refine 1M items. So who cares if it's a 70% success over 1M. What I do care about is how likely is it for me to get 0% success over a normal sample size of 10.
That is where a failsafe comes in. As a game designer, do you really want folks to get 0 successes out of 10 tries when something has a 70% chance for success? Yes mathematically that is possible even with a perfect true random number generator, but that is not a proper design.
That being said, I've made a rank 8 (20%) in one shot, while wasting a dozen wards to get a rank 6 made. Sometimes, the RNG isn't your friend. Other days, you can't miss. You never hear about the people telling you how *they* had a great run of luck, though. What you usually hear is "My guildie..." followed by some exceptionally low-chance thing happening (say, getting an Eye of Lathandar in back-to-back runs), or getting the CTA companion on their first skirmish.
The RNG loooooooves me. Or I am really good at massaging it into doing what I want, even though people say that's impossible.
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i had 26 turns on my refinement, 24 failure and 2 success, the 1st success came at 12 turn and the 2nd at 25th turn and now look at my chances. the chance of me failing 11 times in a row = .7^11=.0198=1.98%
the chance of success on 12th turn = .7^11*.3=.00594=.594%
the chance of me having the whole thing happening to me =.7^24*.3^2=1.72*10^(-5)=.00172%
and if we go as avg =2/26=.0769or 7.69% was my success rate
so u saying that it is 1 of those days in which the RNG screwed up and i lost near about 100k on refining.
and the guys who saying that overall success rate is still 30% , u see if the data is to take in 1million data points than that is just messed up , except the farmers nobody refine that many enchants, so either they shld change the code of there rng to be fair or they can add an or statement to the code in 10 data points which will make atleast fix success rate for play so that ppl will not get that many failures.
at least i want my success % to be shown in 10 tries and not to think what if its on overall players , y do i care about overall players , i m spending the money so i shld hell get the result too.
I bought a stack of r5 radiants yesterday and made 2 r7 radiants w/o consuming any pres wards
however, when i tried to make a r8 i had the worst luck
RNG: sometimes it loves us and sometimes it likes to laugh in your face
Last week I needed seven preservation wards for a 50% upgrade. I could not believe my eyes. It was fail after fail after fail.
Meh, I once went through almost 30 skill kits on one node. The chances of that are ridiculously low....
Sigh, can people actually read the posts before posting?
Each attempt has a 30% chance to successfully upgrade the enchantment. if you fail or succeed on the first attempt the next one is still 30% to upgrade.