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Rough estimate of coalescent ward drop chance.

quillhalequillhale Member Posts: 1 Arc User
edited December 2013 in PvE Discussion
I was curious about the drop rate of coalescent wards, so I've been keeping an eye on it for the last couple of months. Out of 308 coffers of wondrous augmentation I got 44 coalescent wards, giving a rough drop probability of 14.28%. I suspect the actual probability is 15% and I'm just a 0.72% unlucky. For the statistically inclined, here are the data points:

Number of coalescent ward drops per 28 attempts - 8, 2, 6, 3, 2, 1, 3, 4, 6, 6, 3.

The coffers can also drop a rank 5 enchantment, though chances of that are vanishingly low. Out of same 308 attempts I got 6 rank 5s, giving a rough chance of 1.9%.

The data points per 28 attempts are 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 0, 0, 2, 0, 1, 0.

P.S. It is possible to get a coalescent ward and a rank 5 enchantment in the same coffer. That has happened exactly once :).
Post edited by quillhale on
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Comments

  • xxmantaraxxxxmantaraxx Member Posts: 362 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    Good info! I have had much less luck though. 5 wards from 3 characters since the day after caturday. But in rare form I did also receive a ward and rank 5 together, exactly one time :) I hear others say the average is 10% but I just figured their gods were listening when they invoked ;)

    Ara Atheanes GWF
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    -MANTARA- OP
  • hinageshi79hinageshi79 Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 246 Bounty Hunter
    edited December 2013
    Helli good info. I also paid attention to this but my numbers are different. I opened in the preview server 300 duplicated coffers in 3 raw of 100 and got 8, 6, 8 coals. So "my" coal drop ratio is 7.3%. Im not worried about this big difference between ours numbers couse i'm usually unlucky with rolls... and couse it is verified that RGN in this game is not random as it should be.

    Because with module 2 wards will be bounded, ofc they will become very expensive in AH until they disappear from AH market. So I the dedicated thread I asked to raise up the drop rate because a lot of ppl will remain without cials and without enough AD to afford the cost of coals. So we should repeat the test after module 2 to verify if they changed something.
  • fondlezfondlez Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    hinageshi79 wrote: »
    Helli good info. I also paid attention to this but my numbers are different. I opened in the preview server 300 duplicated coffers in 3 raw of 100 and got 8, 6, 8 coals. So "my" coal drop ratio is 7.3%. Im not worried about this big difference between ours numbers couse i'm usually unlucky with rolls... and couse it is verified that RGN in this game is not random as it should be.

    If you check the Preview forums, you will see others have opened 900+ to well over 1,000 on both Mimic (Preview) and Owlbear (Patch) shards. They have confirmed an almost identical figure of 15% for current Coffers of Wondrous Augmentation.

    However, it is worth noting, that for a while any Coffers on Preview since the new Module updates had shown a new loot table that contained ingredients used in the new Refinement system. Those Coffers when opened with similar numbers showed a new drop rate for Coalescent Wards of no more than 5%. Devs later confirmed, and players checked, that existing Coffers would be unaffected by the new Module, but devs said nothing about drop rates in the future Coffers from the new Module...
  • vortix44vortix44 Member Posts: 680 Bounty Hunter
    edited December 2013
    Out of my own experience I would have said one out of twenty. I got like five Coalescent and one hundred Preservation.
    English is not my first language.
  • banaancbanaanc Member Posts: 472 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    in last 2 months on 5 characters ive gotten 1 or 2 coal wards so the chance is ****

  • mconosrepmconosrep Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    Since the start of Open Beta my percentage is around 15-20%.
  • cdnbisoncdnbison Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 806 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    I have 7 characters, and usually get about 1 coal. ward / week. That works out to the same 14.28% chance OP had. I'm almost wondering if that isn't a deliberately set number - 7 days of invoking for a 1-in-7 chance...
  • dkcandydkcandy Member Posts: 1,555 Bounty Hunter
    edited December 2013
    Before MOD 2 - ~20%
    After MOD 2 - ~5%
  • mehguy138mehguy138 Member Posts: 1,803 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    Funny thing, my approximate drop chance at live is about 10-15%, but I opened the coffer that I got from weekly invoking on my HR at the preview shard and got coalescent :)
    M6 almost drains your soul given how boring it is. (c) joocycuzzzzzz
  • xellizxelliz Member Posts: 955 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    I really haven't been paying attention because all my chars get them at different times, but since I have been allowed to take my brothers coffers if I invoke on his accounts while he is away, I have observed a 25% return. I'm sure that will change, but I have opened 4 coffers a week for 2 weeks now and gotten 2 coal wards from the 8 boxes.
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  • calvin1tagcalvin1tag Member Posts: 322 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    The % chance has fallen to ultra low levels - I used to get 3 or 4 out of 13 characters every week - but as of the last 3 weeks I've gotten 2 or 3 out of 39 attempts
  • tickdofftickdoff Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    7 toons invoking every day since about 1 month after live. Total of 3 coal wards pulled. My luck stinks.
  • beckylunaticbeckylunatic Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 14,231 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    Overall, I think the very lucky and the very unlucky average out to be in keeping with the 15% rate found from analysis of larger test pools. I've had lucky, average, and unlucky weeks.

    But if the change goes forward with the updated coffer as implemented on preview, you are going to find that dropping to around 5%, and you're not going to be getting nearly as many free preservation wards either.
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  • UnknownUnknown
    edited December 2013
    This content has been removed.
  • tang56tang56 Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users, Neverwinter Knight of the Feywild Users Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    macjae wrote: »
    I seem to get Rank 5 Silvery Enchantments out of the coffers more often than Coalescent Wards.

    I guess I should consider myself lucky.

    At least they aren't training runes.
    RIP Neverwinter 26/06/2014
  • ladysylvialadysylvia Member Posts: 946 Bounty Hunter
    edited December 2013
    mehguy138 wrote: »
    Funny thing, my approximate drop chance at live is about 10-15%, but I opened the coffer that I got from weekly invoking on my HR at the preview shard and got coalescent :)

    The first coffer of the copied coffer, that contain 'bug old coffer are new coffer rewards', was a CW coffer. The following 31 contain only 1 more CW...
  • valetudo78valetudo78 Member Posts: 189 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    I need to get this straight. Do I need coalwards for highrank gems after the patch or just for weapon and armor enchants?
  • mehguy138mehguy138 Member Posts: 1,803 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    valetudo78 wrote: »
    I need to get this straight. Do I need coalwards for highrank gems after the patch or just for weapon and armor enchants?

    You need the same amount of wards as chances remain the same.
    M6 almost drains your soul given how boring it is. (c) joocycuzzzzzz
  • valetudo78valetudo78 Member Posts: 189 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    Then I really dont get the point of changing how we rank up our enchants. I thought they said the whole point was to encourage players to rank their gems up more. If its gonna be harder to get coalwards then its gonna have the opposite effect. Especially if we have to use them on artifacts.
  • mehguy138mehguy138 Member Posts: 1,803 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    valetudo78 wrote: »
    Then I really dont get the point of changing how we rank up our enchants. I thought they said the whole point was to encourage players to rank their gems up more. If its gonna be harder to get coalwards then its gonna have the opposite effect. Especially if we have to use them on artifacts.

    The point is you need less coal wards now, so they decided to make it harder to get them. So the things remain the same overall. And for artifacts, I think you'll be only needing coal ward to up them to the max quality (legendary).
    M6 almost drains your soul given how boring it is. (c) joocycuzzzzzz
  • melodywhrmelodywhr Member Posts: 4,220 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    valetudo78 wrote: »
    I need to get this straight. Do I need coalwards for highrank gems after the patch or just for weapon and armor enchants?
    mehguy138 wrote: »
    You need the same amount of wards as chances remain the same.
    valetudo78 wrote: »
    Then I really dont get the point of changing how we rank up our enchants. I thought they said the whole point was to encourage players to rank their gems up more. If its gonna be harder to get coalwards then its gonna have the opposite effect. Especially if we have to use them on artifacts.

    the number of coal wards needed to upgrade armor/weapon enchants has decreased greatly with module 2. the number of preservation wards could be the same since they only protect the reagents from being destroyed in the case of failure.
  • xellizxelliz Member Posts: 955 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    valetudo78 wrote: »
    Then I really dont get the point of changing how we rank up our enchants. I thought they said the whole point was to encourage players to rank their gems up more. If its gonna be harder to get coalwards then its gonna have the opposite effect. Especially if we have to use them on artifacts.

    It is my understand that currently, you need 5 coal wards to make a normal. 4 to make the lessers required to combine and 1 more to combine them to make a normal. After mod 2, you only need 2 wards. 1 to upgrade a shard to a lesser and 1 to upgrade the lesser to a normal.
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  • mehguy138mehguy138 Member Posts: 1,803 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    xelliz wrote: »
    It is my understand that currently, you need 5 coal wards to make a normal. 4 to make the lessers required to combine and 1 more to combine them to make a normal. After mod 2, you only need 2 wards. 1 to upgrade a shard to a lesser and 1 to upgrade the lesser to a normal.

    Actually, 3 for normal as you gotta use another lesser as a reagent.
    M6 almost drains your soul given how boring it is. (c) joocycuzzzzzz
  • frishterfrishter Member Posts: 3,522 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    melodywhr wrote: »
    the number of coal wards needed to upgrade armor/weapon enchants has decreased greatly with module 2. the number of preservation wards could be the same since they only protect the reagents from being destroyed in the case of failure.
    You need less pres wards too since you need less enchants if you're not using them for rp or you can use lower levelled enchants for rp that dont need pres wards to level up. Since you get less efficient rp gains past rank 6 I believe. At least I tihnk this is the case.
  • beckylunaticbeckylunatic Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 14,231 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    mehguy138 wrote: »
    You need the same amount of wards as chances remain the same.

    I'd say this is better phrased as you need coalescent wards for the same upgrade steps you would have needed them for before, so yes on 1% success and no on 25% (imo, just spam pres wards until it works).

    There are fewer upgrade steps, so you don't need nearly as many wards.
    Guild Leader - The Lords of Light

    Neverwinter Census 2017

    All posts pending disapproval by Cecilia
  • xellizxelliz Member Posts: 955 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    mehguy138 wrote: »
    Actually, 3 for normal as you gotta use another lesser as a reagent.

    ah ok...I haven't done this yet on preview, just based on what I was hearing.
    Foundry - Fight Club? (nw-dluqbofu7)
    - JailBreak (in development)
  • hinageshi79hinageshi79 Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 246 Bounty Hunter
    edited December 2013
    dkcandy wrote: »
    Before MOD 2 - ~20%
    After MOD 2 - ~5%


    5%!?
    why do i play this game?
  • werealchemistwerealchemist Member, Neverwinter Beta Users Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    hinageshi79 wrote: »
    5%!?
    why do i play this game?

    It's closer to 15% but RNG is a fickle mistress.
    21.jpg
  • beckylunaticbeckylunatic Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 14,231 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    werealchemist wrote: »
    It's closer to 15% but RNG is a fickle mistress.

    Not the drop rate in the new coffer, as far as anyone has been able to test it. It *was* about 15%.
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  • lwedarlwedar Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 790 Arc User
    edited December 2013
    The changes to the coffer have really dampened the excitement for the new refining system. I was really on board with what they were trying to do. However after execution of it, the whole system seems like alot of work was put into it by the devs for not that much improvement.

    I am hoping that once it goes live it will make enchantment process easier/cheaper but I have much lower expectations now.
    "we all love this game and want it to thrive"
This discussion has been closed.