With a 40% fail chance every fuse it's not even close to a large enough sample to draw any accurate conclusions...
Agreed. Any event that has anywhere close to a 50% chance is very statistically unstable.
Chances like 10% or 90% will stabilize quite quickly. But anything approaching 50% is naturally prone to streaks and requires a much larger sample size to measure.
No, 174 attempts is MORE than enough to get stupidly close to the correct figure. It's a distribution curve that falls off incredibly sharply.
I ran 1104 iterations (only 1104 because it's a crappy laptop and I couldn't be arsed to optimise it) of this experiment (so 1000+ people trying to fuse 174 enchants, with a proposed success rate of 60%) and of those, the number that gave a value lower than 50%? 4.
None of them gave a value lower than 45%.
95% of the resultant figures gave a percentage between 55 and 65%
So while it's possible that our tester here is the 1 in a 1000 that gets 47%, it's...unlikely. Well, about 0.1% likely, in fact.
I've a few times failed a R1 fusing as well as had a 50% success rate over the course of 20 R2 fusings... and again over 40 R2 fusings... I've also failed 10 in a row R4s. I was pissed in all events. Streaks are possible at any % but it's more infuriating when you're looking at those streaks and wonder if it's even possible to get the reverse end of those streaks and have that many successful fusings in a row.
We need to find someone that has data collection as a hobby and tell us how many streaks of failures and how many streaks of successes there are to comparatively balance it out
200 or so tests is fine, although more would of course be better. Still the chance of having the results that the OP got if the underlying distribution was correct is very small. Not certain, but compelling enough to take this seriously and get more data......
I seriously doubt the developers would admit to this lie, or honest mistake. Whichever it is.
So it will likely never be in patch notes. However if you could please fix these issues I would appreciate it. You don't even have to admit you have been cheating your player base. Just sneak in the fix.
I'm not just an 'incredibly unlucky' person. These averages are proof of deception.
Please fix asap. Also the skill kit saying 75% is false. Please fix that as well.
Bug report filed in game as well.
an experience of 7 consecutive failures on an enchant fusion
I got 11 consecutive failures trying to go from 4 to 5.
That is, all the enchants I had, azures, darks, radiants, and runestone too, failed. I guess that if I had had in my inventory enough enchants for 20 attempts, the 20 attemps would also have failed.
Ideas:
- The tooltip with the chances is wrong (displaying 60% when it actually means 0,60%)
- The fuse is bugged
- They're trying to get real life money from their coalescence thing. It's common practice in MMOs when a "guarantees success" item appears in real money shop, to see the base rates of sucess suddenly being tweaked down a lot.
- Their RNG (random number generator) is tuned to produce very irregular results.. But 11 fails when the success rate is supposingly higher than 50% is way too irregular.
I got 11 consecutive failures trying to go from 4 to 5.
That is, all the enchants I had, azures, darks, radiants, and runestone too, failed. I guess that if I had had in my inventory enough enchants for 20 attempts, the 20 attemps would also have failed.
Ideas:
- The tooltip with the chances is wrong (displaying 60% when it actually means 0,60%)
- The fuse is bugged
- They're trying to get real life money from their coalescence thing. It's common practice in MMOs when a "guarantees success" item appears in real money shop, to see the base rates of sucess suddenly being tweaked down a lot.
- Their RNG (random number generator) is tuned to produce very irregular results.. But 11 fails when the success rate is supposingly higher than 50% is way too irregular.
Meh - I have had 30 fails in a row a couple of times before I gave up on different constitutive profession nodes. I have done stat classes at Uni and the chances of some of these events are low enough that it is likely that something is borked. I think it is more likely with profession nodes to be that the RNG generator somehow generates 'strings' of failures as the overall rate seems about right.
Would not surprise me that they have a patch in that every so many attempts the system actually correct your odds if you are beating the odds by generating those strings of failures.
Is it THAT hard to believe that a company that is as predatory as PWI would have false %chance to succeed on things when they are selling things that make them 100%?
I've never had a failed enchant aside from a single rank 2 fusing. Given the number of players in the game and how insignificant our individual contributions are it's perfectly possible. After all, someone has to be the unfortunate person who gets all the bad luck.
You must have not fused much at all then. I'd say 10 times at most, if you've only failed once.
Anyway, the 60% chance on the pants and shirts is effing weak on Cryptic's part. As much as it already costs to get the assets and dragon eggs, and you get that low chance? It should be automatically the best.
Here, buy another key for a small chance at an egg, for a small chance at the pants and shirt you want. Failed again? Keep buying keys. We're not done bankrupting you. Just make sure you take out a loan to get coal wards. While you're at it, sell your car and you can buy one of our awesome new mounts.
I regret putting a single dollar into this company.
TL : DR? Then don't waste my time responding.
0
jihancritiasMember, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian UsersPosts: 0Arc User
Some people have no understanding of inferential statistics or probability, it isn't worth wasting our time trying to explain to them if they are not willing to listen.
I think it's funny when a discussion like this starts and all the statisticians, mathematicians, computer programmers, come out. It seems that people on the internet all of a sudden know everything about everything. Wiki is probably getting a lot of hits right now.
Editing because I forgot to mention professional chefs, lawyers, doctors, and on and on.
You must have not fused much at all then. I'd say 10 times at most, if you've only failed once.
Anyway, the 60% chance on the pants and shirts is effing weak on Cryptic's part. As much as it already costs to get the assets and dragon eggs, and you get that low chance? It should be automatically the best.
Here, buy another key for a small chance at an egg, for a small chance at the pants and shirt you want. Failed again? Keep buying keys. We're not done bankrupting you. Just make sure you take out a loan to get coal wards. While you're at it, sell your car and you can buy one of our awesome new mounts.
I regret putting a single dollar into this company.
Cryptic is the developer of this software. The company who manages this game is PW.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Products
City of Heroes, City of Villains, Champions Online, Star Trek Online, Neverwinter
Cryptic Studios is an American video game developer specializing in massively multiplayer online role-playing games. It is headquartered in Los Gatos, California and is a wholly owned Perfect World subsidiary.[1]
[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
0
jihancritiasMember, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian UsersPosts: 0Arc User
Cryptic is the developer of this software. The company who manages this game is PW.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Products
City of Heroes, City of Villains, Champions Online, Star Trek Online, Neverwinter
Cryptic Studios is an American video game developer specializing in massively multiplayer online role-playing games. It is headquartered in Los Gatos, California and is a wholly owned Perfect World subsidiary.[1]
You could have just said "It's PW's decision, not Cryptic's. PW is getting all the money." Either way, my point stands. I regret putting a single dollar into IMPERFECT WORLD'S pocket. Actually, any group associated with this game doesn't deserve my money.
TL : DR? Then don't waste my time responding.
0
beckylunaticMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 14,231Arc User
edited July 2013
I just fused a big built-up stack of r3 silvery enchants to r4s (85% chance to succeed). I had 16 successes and 1 failure, and failed a 2-to-3 fuse I threw in there for variety. Not anything close to enough data to be definitive, but a bit more player-friendly.
One tip I absorbed from these forums is to never stand where anyone (player or wandering NPC) is going to bump you while you're fusing, because the interruption will cause you to fail. I now find myself a nice quiet corner, and I don't get irksome failure streaks like I sometimes would in the middle of PE.
I just fused a big built-up stack of r3 silvery enchants to r4s (85% chance to succeed). I had 16 successes and 1 failure, and failed a 2-to-3 fuse I threw in there for variety. Not anything close to enough data to be definitive, but a bit more player-friendly.
One tip I absorbed from these forums is to never stand where anyone (player or wandering NPC) is going to bump you while you're fusing, because the interruption will cause you to fail. I now find myself a nice quiet corner, and I don't get irksome failure streaks like I sometimes would in the middle of PE.
I would send you a friend request when you are fusing!
So my results in fusing 194 tier 4 enchants and runes yielded 72 successes. This calculates to a 37% success rate. A LONG shot from the advertised 60%.
Coincidence? I don't believe in coincidences.... I believe in math.
I've stopped reading here. 194 is way to small sample to correctly callculate odds. Repost back when You hit 5000 or so.
Throw a coin 194 times and see how close You will get to 50% for one side.
0
jihancritiasMember, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian UsersPosts: 0Arc User
I've stopped reading here. 194 is way to small sample to correctly callculate odds. Repost back when You hit 5000 or so.
Throw a coin 194 times and see how close You will get to 50% for one side.
Everyone repeats the same thing they've read on here. The "too small sample" and "throw a coin" argument. Since this issue has come to light, if it is an issue, everyone is a statistician or mathematician all of a sudden.
Comments
Agreed. Any event that has anywhere close to a 50% chance is very statistically unstable.
Chances like 10% or 90% will stabilize quite quickly. But anything approaching 50% is naturally prone to streaks and requires a much larger sample size to measure.
I ran 1104 iterations (only 1104 because it's a crappy laptop and I couldn't be arsed to optimise it) of this experiment (so 1000+ people trying to fuse 174 enchants, with a proposed success rate of 60%) and of those, the number that gave a value lower than 50%? 4.
None of them gave a value lower than 45%.
95% of the resultant figures gave a percentage between 55 and 65%
So while it's possible that our tester here is the 1 in a 1000 that gets 47%, it's...unlikely. Well, about 0.1% likely, in fact.
We need to find someone that has data collection as a hobby and tell us how many streaks of failures and how many streaks of successes there are to comparatively balance it out
the Tier 3 crafting odds are proving to be much lower than advertised.
Check it out...
Yes, do please do keep us informed of your findings. Has anyone else tried this and also kept a log?
I seriously doubt the developers would admit to this lie, or honest mistake. Whichever it is.
So it will likely never be in patch notes. However if you could please fix these issues I would appreciate it. You don't even have to admit you have been cheating your player base. Just sneak in the fix.
I'm not just an 'incredibly unlucky' person. These averages are proof of deception.
Please fix asap. Also the skill kit saying 75% is false. Please fix that as well.
Bug report filed in game as well.
I got 11 consecutive failures trying to go from 4 to 5.
That is, all the enchants I had, azures, darks, radiants, and runestone too, failed. I guess that if I had had in my inventory enough enchants for 20 attempts, the 20 attemps would also have failed.
Ideas:
- The tooltip with the chances is wrong (displaying 60% when it actually means 0,60%)
- The fuse is bugged
- They're trying to get real life money from their coalescence thing. It's common practice in MMOs when a "guarantees success" item appears in real money shop, to see the base rates of sucess suddenly being tweaked down a lot.
- Their RNG (random number generator) is tuned to produce very irregular results.. But 11 fails when the success rate is supposingly higher than 50% is way too irregular.
Meh - I have had 30 fails in a row a couple of times before I gave up on different constitutive profession nodes. I have done stat classes at Uni and the chances of some of these events are low enough that it is likely that something is borked. I think it is more likely with profession nodes to be that the RNG generator somehow generates 'strings' of failures as the overall rate seems about right.
You must have not fused much at all then. I'd say 10 times at most, if you've only failed once.
Anyway, the 60% chance on the pants and shirts is effing weak on Cryptic's part. As much as it already costs to get the assets and dragon eggs, and you get that low chance? It should be automatically the best.
Here, buy another key for a small chance at an egg, for a small chance at the pants and shirt you want. Failed again? Keep buying keys. We're not done bankrupting you. Just make sure you take out a loan to get coal wards. While you're at it, sell your car and you can buy one of our awesome new mounts.
I regret putting a single dollar into this company.
I think it's funny when a discussion like this starts and all the statisticians, mathematicians, computer programmers, come out. It seems that people on the internet all of a sudden know everything about everything. Wiki is probably getting a lot of hits right now.
Editing because I forgot to mention professional chefs, lawyers, doctors, and on and on.
Cryptic is the developer of this software. The company who manages this game is PW.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Products
City of Heroes, City of Villains, Champions Online, Star Trek Online, Neverwinter
Cryptic Studios is an American video game developer specializing in massively multiplayer online role-playing games. It is headquartered in Los Gatos, California and is a wholly owned Perfect World subsidiary.[1]
You could have just said "It's PW's decision, not Cryptic's. PW is getting all the money." Either way, my point stands. I regret putting a single dollar into IMPERFECT WORLD'S pocket. Actually, any group associated with this game doesn't deserve my money.
One tip I absorbed from these forums is to never stand where anyone (player or wandering NPC) is going to bump you while you're fusing, because the interruption will cause you to fail. I now find myself a nice quiet corner, and I don't get irksome failure streaks like I sometimes would in the middle of PE.
Neverwinter Census 2017
All posts pending disapproval by Cecilia
I would send you a friend request when you are fusing!
I've stopped reading here. 194 is way to small sample to correctly callculate odds. Repost back when You hit 5000 or so.
Throw a coin 194 times and see how close You will get to 50% for one side.
Everyone repeats the same thing they've read on here. The "too small sample" and "throw a coin" argument. Since this issue has come to light, if it is an issue, everyone is a statistician or mathematician all of a sudden.