So from what I'm reading Wizards of the Coast might make Cryptic release their lockbox odds for NWO

thevampinator

This might have been an outcome because of the fcc meeting with many publishers or something. Apparently Wizards of the Coast is one of the members that agreed to disclose lootbox odds. Given lootboxes are a thing in Neverwinter which has to answer to wizards plus crypitc working on a magic the gathering mmo which is also has to answer to wizards of the coast we might soon find out those chances. Because I don't think wizards has any video games that do lockboxes I'm not counting magic the gathering gaming cards here or the magic the gathering games but they might be counted in this. Cryptics Neverwinter which answers to wizards I think would qualify.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/8/7/20758626/nintendo-microsoft-sony-loot-box-drop-rate-disclosure-video-games
From the article quote

The video game industry group, the Entertainment Software Association, announced the new initiative on Wednesday at a loot box workshop at the Federal Trade Commission. Along with the top console makers, a number of video game publishers already include drop rates, while others have agreed to do so by the end of 2020.
These include Activision Blizzard, Bandai Namco, Bethesda, Bungie, EA, Take-Two Interactive, Ubisoft, Warner Bros., and Wizards of the Coast. According to the ESA, other publishers are also considering the disclosure. They will need to be included for a game to be published on the Xbox, PlayStation, and Nintendo Switch consoles. Other platforms — like PC — are not included in this commitment.

What do you think? Think Cryptic will have to release the odds at some point?

callumf

About time to.

I suspect that UK and European and USA and general "gambling" legislation across the world was going to hit the lootboxes hard at some point. Its gambling by any other name. And gambling is heavily legislated for in nearly every country.

The anti-gambling addiction charities [rightly] are mounting more pressure on governments to look into lootbox gambling.

I have believed for some time that lootbox odds need to be transparent and be released and that Cryptic will have to comply at some point OR face the consequences.

thevampinator

I wonder if this is why they are changing it so we have a choice to see lockbox spam or not with next mod. I'm wondering if this is something Wizards is making them do. Wizards for one might have more to stake because of their games like MTG Arena might have random chance card packs that might be like a lockbox mechanic's since its in a video game format. I never played any of the mtg card video games but I imagine this could factor into them agreeing to it. Neverwinter is basically a property that cryptic is allowed to run. Given wizards might be responsible for it. Having players it be exploited with the lockbox stuff like a casino doesn't look good and when players can't stop the spam isn't very good for their image either.

mentinmindmaker

It won't matter that much if they publish the odds really. The general level of the odds is already known due to community tests on Test server.

I think legendary mount droprate is 0.15% or so, which means a 65% chance of getting at least one legendary mount in 700 tries.
p = (1-(1-0.0015)**700)

So there also is a 35% chance of not getting a legendary mount in 700 tries

Personally I am at not getting a legendary mount despite spending the daily VIP key since VIP launched. VIP was launched in August 2015, so allowing for vacations and the occasional missed key I have opened some 1200 lockboxes.

Probability of not getting a legendary mount in 1200 tries is 16.5% - RNG I hate you!

thevampinator

mentinmindmaker said:

It won't matter that much if they publish the odds really. The general level of the odds is already known due to community tests on Test server.

I think legendary mount droprate is 0.15% or so.

I imagine the player base doesn't know this though. A lot of them. They might guess the odds to be so low its basically not happening unless you spend hundreds for keys. It does matter as the release of odds would show the truth about how much of a chance it really is. It will hurt perfect worlds/cryptics image yes but it could lead to change possibly an increase in odds just to save face. Would really be beneficial for us and hopefully lead to them caring more about us and not about gamble box stuff. Sure they can still make money and they make a lot of it from the lockboxes already. But legendary mounts should have other means like the trade bars of getting those. Even if they cost so much more in bars. If they added in an alternate method or means then I think it would be a lot better.

mentinmindmaker

With 0.15% droprate, the average number of lockboxes per legendary mount will be around 700.

You get around 8 or so tradebars per lockbox.

Legendary mount price in tradebars will be 5600-ish.

Don't expect price to be lower than that, that would reduce Cryptic income, and they cannot afford that.

thevampinator

Vip and keys, might take some time but wouldn't be too bad as trade bars vary from what I noticed unless they changed it. So it could be 4 or ten or 8 or 15 or even higher. I think it would be a great move if they started moving them to the trade bar store because then players could have a chance and well. Might help out their image and also legendary mounts I think before the 16 change were helpful with item level score. Possibly would still be helpful in that regard plus several of them have useful abilties. That could be helpful for builds. Might even get more people to buy keys just to get bars. We will see what happens. Maybe moving away from the pure jackpot mechanics with mounts could be beneficial for them to do. They don't need a .015 chance to make money they could make money by making it more accessible too.
Also they make so much money from their other mmos too especially Sto. I think 5600 would possibly be a lot fairer. It would still be a lot better then a .015 chance at least.

thevampinator

After reading more on this and it seems they might require it for any update that releases a lootbox on consoles. So pretty much I imagine Cryptic would have to release this information for say whatever new lootboxes they do on the console system once they finish their joint policy plan. Kinda big that several console companies and companies in general are agreeing to this. So Cryptic might not have much of a choice in the matter if they want to keep the console versions running.

callumf

thevampinator said:

After reading more on this and it seems they might require it for any update that releases a lootbox on consoles. So pretty much I imagine Cryptic would have to release this information for say whatever new lootboxes they do on the console system once they finish their joint policy plan. Kinda big that several console companies and companies in general are agreeing to this. So Cryptic might not have much of a choice in the matter if they want to keep the console versions running.

ALso lots of kids play games like NWO on console. And when the accounts are linked its easy for a child to spend parents money on something. Usually if the parent complains the company gives back the cash, but the digital asset has been used. Its only a matter of time before someone's child spends a load of money on lootboxes and it causes a real ...

thevampinator

callumf#9018 said:

thevampinator said:

After reading more on this and it seems they might require it for any update that releases a lootbox on consoles. So pretty much I imagine Cryptic would have to release this information for say whatever new lootboxes they do on the console system once they finish their joint policy plan. Kinda big that several console companies and companies in general are agreeing to this. So Cryptic might not have much of a choice in the matter if they want to keep the console versions running.

ALso lots of kids play games like NWO on console. And when the accounts are linked its easy for a child to spend parents money on something. Usually if the parent complains the company gives back the cash, but the digital asset has been used. Its only a matter of time before someone's child spends a load of money on lootboxes and it causes a real ...

Neverwinter I think could survive without lockboxes. Its not as ingrained as it seems to be in Sto for example. Seems more lenient but better for gaining in game currency then even the zen exchange. Still Neverwinter might take having to remove them a lot easier then the other mmo but they would have to change things and possibly find other ways to make money but I Think most use vip keys and save them up. I do believe Legendary mounts could easily be converted to zen shop or trade bar store. If they had to remove them from Neverwinter or had to remove the jackpot element. Only thing about Lockboxes in Neverwinter is many items and tools and other things that can be sold for ad gain and is the best method since ravenloft account wide cap. So opening up a bunch of them basically for garbage is good for getting the ads once you sell the garbage or useful garbage as I should say and get the ad return in the mail.

mebengalsfan

thevampinator said:

This might have been an outcome because of the fcc meeting with many publishers or something. Apparently Wizards of the Coast is one of the members that agreed to disclose lootbox odds. Given lootboxes are a thing in Neverwinter which has to answer to wizards plus crypitc working on a magic the gathering mmo which is also has to answer to wizards of the coast we might soon find out those chances. Because I don't think wizards has any video games that do lockboxes I'm not counting magic the gathering gaming cards here or the magic the gathering games but they might be counted in this. Cryptics Neverwinter which answers to wizards I think would qualify.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/8/7/20758626/nintendo-microsoft-sony-loot-box-drop-rate-disclosure-video-games
From the article quote

The video game industry group, the Entertainment Software Association, announced the new initiative on Wednesday at a loot box workshop at the Federal Trade Commission. Along with the top console makers, a number of video game publishers already include drop rates, while others have agreed to do so by the end of 2020.
These include Activision Blizzard, Bandai Namco, Bethesda, Bungie, EA, Take-Two Interactive, Ubisoft, Warner Bros., and Wizards of the Coast. According to the ESA, other publishers are also considering the disclosure. They will need to be included for a game to be published on the Xbox, PlayStation, and Nintendo Switch consoles. Other platforms — like PC — are not included in this commitment.

What do you think? Think Cryptic will have to release the odds at some point?

It states future titles. This means NWO can be excluded from this ask. Now if NWO goes to Nintendo than it would have to share this info. As for Magic the Gather it would fall into this request if it is release in 2020.

This ask is for console games only; PC games can be excluded.

thevampinator

mebengalsfan#9264 said:

thevampinator said:

This might have been an outcome because of the fcc meeting with many publishers or something. Apparently Wizards of the Coast is one of the members that agreed to disclose lootbox odds. Given lootboxes are a thing in Neverwinter which has to answer to wizards plus crypitc working on a magic the gathering mmo which is also has to answer to wizards of the coast we might soon find out those chances. Because I don't think wizards has any video games that do lockboxes I'm not counting magic the gathering gaming cards here or the magic the gathering games but they might be counted in this. Cryptics Neverwinter which answers to wizards I think would qualify.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/8/7/20758626/nintendo-microsoft-sony-loot-box-drop-rate-disclosure-video-games
From the article quote

The video game industry group, the Entertainment Software Association, announced the new initiative on Wednesday at a loot box workshop at the Federal Trade Commission. Along with the top console makers, a number of video game publishers already include drop rates, while others have agreed to do so by the end of 2020.
These include Activision Blizzard, Bandai Namco, Bethesda, Bungie, EA, Take-Two Interactive, Ubisoft, Warner Bros., and Wizards of the Coast. According to the ESA, other publishers are also considering the disclosure. They will need to be included for a game to be published on the Xbox, PlayStation, and Nintendo Switch consoles. Other platforms — like PC — are not included in this commitment.

What do you think? Think Cryptic will have to release the odds at some point?

It states future titles. This means NWO can be excluded from this ask. Now if NWO goes to Nintendo than it would have to share this info. As for Magic the Gather it would fall into this request if it is release in 2020.

This ask is for console games only; PC games can be excluded.

I also read something about any future updates that add lockboxes in one of the articles on google. So that would mean say whatever lockbox they had planned next. If the policy came through would have to disclose those odds. Might not have to do it with old lockboxes but new ones. They would have too. It is possible crypitc would just delay lockbox releases to consoles to limit the damage of the odds being made public. But if they added an update with a new lockbox they wouldn't be able to get past such a policy. I imagine they would require it for all titles for any type of lockbox release update at some point. It will depend on time. But yes it seems the policy will target new games and mmos. But does not mean they won't target old ones. Given that Wizards is involved in this. I don't think they could skate by not doing so if Wizards forces them to release the odds. Otherwise they might have to shut down the game. I doubt cryptic would be willing to give up such a profitable source of money for them so easily. But it could be possible the reason why they shut down the china version. As I think they had such a law where they had too. But given that major companies are taking steps to require gaming companies basically do this now. Its only a matter of time before the odds will come out one way or another.

kemnimtarkas

thevampinator said:

I wonder if this is why they are changing it so we have a choice to see lockbox spam or not with next mod. I'm wondering if this is something Wizards is making them do. Wizards for one might have more to stake because of their games like MTG Arena might have random chance card packs that might be like a lockbox mechanic's since its in a video game format. I never played any of the mtg card video games but I imagine this could factor into them agreeing to it. Neverwinter is basically a property that cryptic is allowed to run. Given wizards might be responsible for it. Having players it be exploited with the lockbox stuff like a casino doesn't look good and when players can't stop the spam isn't very good for their image either.

From your original post I'd guess the real pressure isn't going to come from WoTC - it' s going to be the platform makers. If Microsoft and Sony make it a hard requirement - Cryptic has no choice. AT LEAST for Xbox and PS platforms.

The question that logically follow is - will knowing the odds make any difference in player/gambler behavior? I doubt it.

thevampinator

It was this one that mentioned the update thing.
https://www.gamespot.com/articles/xbox-playstation-nintendo-and-major-publishers-to-/1100-6468960/
So if this is accurate then yes they would pretty much have no choice most likely but to comply with it.

klangeddin

The problem is that nobody has ever been willing to take companies to court who used this practice over breaking current gambling legislation in most countries, with good lawyers and a judge willing to listen there's a chance that these companies might be sentenced to hefty fines (or even penal consequences for the CEOs).

This ask seems to be a form of "play by anticipation" of a worst case scenario, notice how they affect only future titles and only for console market (where in all likelyhood the general audience is much younger), they really seem to want to avoid a possible lawsuit, otherwise there would be no reason to do this without any new legislation that specifically regulates lockboxes. Somebody from their legal teams probably warned them to take countermeasures.

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mebengalsfan

thevampinator said:

mebengalsfan#9264 said:

thevampinator said:

This might have been an outcome because of the fcc meeting with many publishers or something. Apparently Wizards of the Coast is one of the members that agreed to disclose lootbox odds. Given lootboxes are a thing in Neverwinter which has to answer to wizards plus crypitc working on a magic the gathering mmo which is also has to answer to wizards of the coast we might soon find out those chances. Because I don't think wizards has any video games that do lockboxes I'm not counting magic the gathering gaming cards here or the magic the gathering games but they might be counted in this. Cryptics Neverwinter which answers to wizards I think would qualify.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/8/7/20758626/nintendo-microsoft-sony-loot-box-drop-rate-disclosure-video-games
From the article quote

The video game industry group, the Entertainment Software Association, announced the new initiative on Wednesday at a loot box workshop at the Federal Trade Commission. Along with the top console makers, a number of video game publishers already include drop rates, while others have agreed to do so by the end of 2020.
These include Activision Blizzard, Bandai Namco, Bethesda, Bungie, EA, Take-Two Interactive, Ubisoft, Warner Bros., and Wizards of the Coast. According to the ESA, other publishers are also considering the disclosure. They will need to be included for a game to be published on the Xbox, PlayStation, and Nintendo Switch consoles. Other platforms — like PC — are not included in this commitment.

What do you think? Think Cryptic will have to release the odds at some point?

It states future titles. This means NWO can be excluded from this ask. Now if NWO goes to Nintendo than it would have to share this info. As for Magic the Gather it would fall into this request if it is release in 2020.

This ask is for console games only; PC games can be excluded.

I also read something about any future updates that add lockboxes in one of the articles on google. So that would mean say whatever lockbox they had planned next. If the policy came through would have to disclose those odds. Might not have to do it with old lockboxes but new ones. They would have too. It is possible crypitc would just delay lockbox releases to consoles to limit the damage of the odds being made public. But if they added an update with a new lockbox they wouldn't be able to get past such a policy. I imagine they would require it for all titles for any type of lockbox release update at some point. It will depend on time. But yes it seems the policy will target new games and mmos. But does not mean they won't target old ones. Given that Wizards is involved in this. I don't think they could skate by not doing so if Wizards forces them to release the odds. Otherwise they might have to shut down the game. I doubt cryptic would be willing to give up such a profitable source of money for them so easily. But it could be possible the reason why they shut down the china version. As I think they had such a law where they had too. But given that major companies are taking steps to require gaming companies basically do this now. Its only a matter of time before the odds will come out one way or another.

They could just release the magnificent LB again with the updated items in them but since it is an old LB it would not be forced to report this information. There are always loop holes in laws and companies find a way to abuse them to continue with business as usual. Cryptic IMO would try that to save themselves from reporting their LB drop rate.

Wizard of Coast recently started their own in house development team and recently released a dungeon and dragon game that has a loot box in it. The game is on iOS, FB and Google Play so it only makes sense for them to be part of the group as their game already has to report the LB drop rate.

klangeddin

kemnimtarkas said:

thevampinator said:

I wonder if this is why they are changing it so we have a choice to see lockbox spam or not with next mod. I'm wondering if this is something Wizards is making them do. Wizards for one might have more to stake because of their games like MTG Arena might have random chance card packs that might be like a lockbox mechanic's since its in a video game format. I never played any of the mtg card video games but I imagine this could factor into them agreeing to it. Neverwinter is basically a property that cryptic is allowed to run. Given wizards might be responsible for it. Having players it be exploited with the lockbox stuff like a casino doesn't look good and when players can't stop the spam isn't very good for their image either.

From your original post I'd guess the real pressure isn't going to come from WoTC - it' s going to be the platform makers. If Microsoft and Sony make it a hard requirement - Cryptic has no choice. AT LEAST for Xbox and PS platforms.

The question that logically follow is - will knowing the odds make any difference in player/gambler behavior? I doubt it.

While it might not make a difference for player/gambler behaviour (although I think it would have some impact), it adds a degree of accountability for the company who uses this mechanic. If they say that a drop rate is 10% and empirical testing with mass data from the player bases says that the actual drop rate is closer to 2% and the developers do nothing to promptly fix it (months/years after reports doesn't count), you have proof right there that they are breaking gambling legislation (in addition to false advertising), without the disclosed drop rates, there is simply no way to see if they are being honest about it or not.

Unknown

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mintmark

It made me wonder, if they are compelled to publish the odds of winning various prizes from lockboxes, do they also have to demonstrate somehow that their software implements those odds effectively?

thevampinator

mintmark said:

It made me wonder, if they are compelled to publish the odds of winning various prizes from lockboxes, do they also have to demonstrate somehow that their software implements those odds effectively?

I'd imagine a lot of the chances would be so very low. It might cause enough scandel that the consoles might require them to improve the chances. As Cryptic isn't the only one that does this short of thing.

pwimagicgame

Might be a bigger change than imagined since a lot of lootboxes are not truly random. I have no idea about Neverwinter lootboxes specifically, but I do know in (some) other games, the odds are controlled by lines of code that check how much you spent in real money, whether you run a guild, how many 'legendaries' you already have, and all kinds of other checks. Different game, one Dev said in a forum once, there were over a hundred checks on his games lootboxes (being careful not to name the games here ).

Trash is obviously random.

So how do you work out the odds if it's controlled?

plasticbat

"Other platforms — like PC — are not included in this commitment."

“This is why by 2020 all new apps or games offering ‘loot boxes’ or other mechanisms on Microsoft platforms that provide randomized virtual items for purchase must disclose to customers, prior to purchase, the odds of receiving each item.”

I have all the lockbox since mod 3. I doubt they will post the odd within the game for all the lockbox I have.

lordtweety

pwimagicgame said:

Might be a bigger change than imagined since a lot of lootboxes are not truly random. I have no idea about Neverwinter lootboxes specifically, but I do know in (some) other games, the odds are controlled by lines of code that check how much you spent in real money, whether you run a guild, how many 'legendaries' you already have, and all kinds of other checks. Different game, one Dev said in a forum once, there were over a hundred checks on his games lootboxes (being careful not to name the games here ).

Trash is obviously random.

So how do you work out the odds if it's controlled?

I wouldn't be surprised if there is something like that at work in NW as well. I got my first legendary after spending real money in game. Spent more, got another one. And that trend continued for 4 more legendary mounts. There is still RNG because two of our guild leaders have spent far more on the game than I have and they haven't won any legendary mounts and that's since the early days of this game. And of course, since I stopped spending real money I haven't gotten anything decent from lockboxes.

thefabricant

I don't see this making any difference. Path of Exile originally did not have any form of lootbox. The community complained and requested it so often they eventually relented and added one to the cash store, which contains random cosmetics only and the odds of each item is disclosed on the box. People still buy them and there is still demand.

The people interested in lootboxes don't care about the odds, the moment you ask, "what are the odds of getting this item," you are not the target demographic.

wylonus

i am surprised to see and read this 'lockbox' topic here, but on STO's forum any discussion about lockbox just get deleted and posters who made post got warning as "hate post".
remember the early days of patches of mod 1, mod 2 with first lockboxes, odds were 1 in 20/1 in 25 boxes, and those box drop are low until they upped drop rates like toliet papers and load more trashes and often get repeated same items for few days with rarely any sense of randomness. then, last year it was 1 in 200 and now today currently seem to be 1 in 700 boxes.
i am starting to refuse opening them, the cost of pixel doesnt match fairly, making players overspend, and worst of all, kids as minor and underage abused some parents's CC, i have seen it happen, my younger nephew age of 7, stole CC from his brother who was saving for his first car to go to work after school, discovered missing amount, so my brother in law had to cut up all his console cords and forbid to play any electronic games and called the bank to recover from online games, so my nephew is now 12 yrs old and still not allow until he graduate from school when he is 18.
that reason why those online games didnt check players' age, and the Belgium already ban online gambling to protect underages and those who has addiction problems and on probation under the court system. they got fed up with lockbox gimmick.
ESO was careful for not to put any overpower items but just only fluff stuffs, and they have cool format for "Sellback" if players are not happy with items they got, and can sell back for trading shards and once they have enough shards to trade in for what they want. it seem win-win for both creators and players.
just my opinion, both STO and NWO's random loot table need to clean up and remove junk clutter when make players very upset and badly ripped off with repeating prizes and only few lucky ones get same good stuffs over and over. were they cheating? got inside info? base on "hidden" Wei-flag code attach to character name code generator and some players never won anything nice since first lockbox released, some thinks it is cursed.

b4t1b4t

Interesting but I feel its incorrect. Think of a random generated number program and sit there trying hard to guess what number it will give you before you press the button?
Is it really that easy to guess?
Lockboxes use around about the same method and there for you cant really guess what will be given.
Fact is everything listed inside a lockbox is stored in a sql table with a given number.
When you open the box the string is sent to the sql and is given a random number from the tables with in and bingo that is your price of the day.
it is random and bit hard to guess what is given when the code is whats doing it.
Just saying maybe but I would not really trust what they state the odds are because I would know its still random either way.

thefiresidecat

thevampinator said:

Vip and keys, might take some time but wouldn't be too bad as trade bars vary from what I noticed unless they changed it. So it could be 4 or ten or 8 or 15 or even higher. I think it would be a great move if they started moving them to the trade bar store because then players could have a chance and well. Might help out their image and also legendary mounts I think before the 16 change were helpful with item level score. Possibly would still be helpful in that regard plus several of them have useful abilties. That could be helpful for builds. Might even get more people to buy keys just to get bars. We will see what happens. Maybe moving away from the pure jackpot mechanics with mounts could be beneficial for them to do. They don't need a .015 chance to make money they could make money by making it more accessible too.
Also they make so much money from their other mmos too especially Sto. I think 5600 would possibly be a lot fairer. It would still be a lot better then a .015 chance at least.

they aren't going to do this because then absolutely no one would buy lockboxes. the price would plummet in the ah. they'd become valueless. and then what would they get people to spend real world money on? I also would guess they'd shut the doors down on this game before announcing drop box rates. I am guessing the woftc is about the new cryptic offering magic the game that is coming up not sto or us.

and reading up the thread more than I had before. the next lockbox would not fall under it. it's not a new title. it's only new titles that sony and xbox would require to reveal odds not old titles. we would be exempt. new lockbox doesn't mean new title.

sandukutupu

I have to agree with @mentinmindmaker original statement, "It won't matter that much if they publish the odds really.".

I live in Michigan with Lottery publishing the odds on dollar to $20 scratch off tickets you can buy at any store or gas station. People are so insane they have vending machines at the grocery store to shell them out. Your odds are written on the back $1 tickets are almost 1 in 7 odds of winning. Since the winners on a roll are in streaks, you can buy 20 losers in a row. Once you hit a winner it most likely be $1 that you won. The $20 tickets are about 1 in 3 odds of winning something yet people buy them. There are also a lot of casinos here as well. My sister and her husband go to casinos on a bus and lose $500 thinking it was a great weekend.

So yes, publish the odds. Even if they tell people they have 1 in 10,000 chance to win a Legendary mount, it will not make them stop, they are hooked. They will still jump on the bus and throw away real money on virtual items.

thefiresidecat

@sandukutupu true for some but how many times have you seen people whining in chat because they are noob and thought lockboxes were a sure thing for a leg mount?

lol this also isn't that comparable to rl gambling. going to the casino and spending that 500 dollars also probably gets you some cheap free buffet food and a good drunk. in game gets you nearly your entire investment in zen and ad back if you've chosen a good box to open not including any jackpots. (not real life money of course, but I think for most people it is ingame money we're talking about) I suspect for your friends/relatives whatever that go to the casino on a bus and lose 500 dollars they're considering a night out entertainment same as going to the theatre and fancy restaurant. it's money lost either way.

people also choose to support the game via some real money. personally I've never thought going above what you'd pay for another game dlc was necessary. there are those that have addiction problems out there.