Success rate bug in professions

mentinmindmaker

So I am working on Blacksmithing MC 3, and need to make 20 Adamant Ingots.
To do that I need 40 Adamant Blooms.

I chose to make those as an offline order. I used Rudolph Wieland as artisn, Forgehammer of Gond as tool, and Workmans Cordial +1 as supplement. With this setup game tells me to expect a success rate of 81%. This seems to be true when I do this using morale.

When running this as an offline order my success rate however seems to be only 50%. I have only 24 successes in 45 attempts. The number of attempts should be large enough that this is not just a bad luck statistical event.

I think the success rate for making Adamant Blooms offline should be investigated.

drinkvernors

Each click of the button is a independent chance roll. So, every time you try to create an Adamant Bloom you have a 19% chance of failure. The chance is not aggregated across a batch of items with quantity of your choosing, each item stand alone in the calculation. At least that's what I recall the devs saying at one point.

mentinmindmaker

There is something called the law of large numbers.. as the number of rolls goes large, the result should approach the probability.

While 45 tries is not a huge number, it is big enough that it is quite unlikely that you get only a 50% success rate with success probability 0.81. Unlikely enough that it should be properly tested.

And yes, each roll in the game is usually independent - which makes it easy to apply statistics theory to it.
The only place where there is 'memory' to the rolls is with the new refining 'guaranteed result' system.

Well.. 'independent'.. properly implemented the RNG is what is called pseudo-random, but I guess we don't have to discuss the difference between pseudo-random and true random

pitshade

Buy the Blooms from the Bloomery vendor and don't worry about success rate.

grogthemagnif

That's what I did and then the same day, I finished Armorsmithing MW III using the Vendors.