Upgrading chance is a scam

promytheas

I've just spend two stacks of 99 preservation wards to upgrade a rank 10 to a rank 11. Supposedly the upgrading chance is 5%, hence on average it should expect to spend about 20 preservation wards per success. Well the truth is that I've spend 198 ward and had ZERO success, either I am truly unlucky, or your algorithm is wrong (bug, really really bad at basic statistics), or you do it on purpose to scam us.

silverkelt

its only 5% chance per each ward you use.. not cumulative.

so you could go through 99 and not get it.

which Ive done..

before ward removal, I was using cwards for 5% or less items.

instynctive

A good illustration to this is flipping a coin. In theory, sure you should 25 heads and 25 tails if you do 50 flips.. however, it doesn't matter which flip number you're on, you will always have a 50/50 chance.

Upgrading stuff is no different.
First try: 5% chance.
Second try: 5% chance.
Third try: 5% chance.
Fourth try: 5% chance.
(ad nauseum)

Usually, if I blow through 10 or 12 Preservation Wards, I'll stop and revisit it late when RNGesus might be feeling more generous. Or I'll waste a Coalescent Ward. It depends on how badly I want the upgrade.

zebular

Closing this as there is already a topic on this somewhere and this topic here assumes legal foul play, which is not acceptable. As your peers have stated, the chance is not cumulative. It is a chance on each alone, with no influence from past or future chances.