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How could things have come to such a pass?

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  • korollakorolla Member Posts: 25 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    ulviel wrote: »
    If previous mods are any indication, it will not ease out, quite the opposite.

    oh yeah, I forgot about the new boxes they always bring in at the same time - that always spikes the hell out of the exchange.
  • ulvielulviel Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 741 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    wimpazoid wrote: »
    I've played every class through the normal questline to level 60. When I went back to my main, I simply followed the AD creation guide and left my unplayed toons to generate AD.

    I'm a casual player, I don't need BIS gear, so the bulk of my ADs went into raising various companions from Zen transfers and CTAs to epic quality on multiple characters. Effectively into AD sinks instead of the economy.

    Just a few post above, we have more casual players lamenting the AD sink of companion upgrades are too high, while others can upgrade their companions overcoming this AD sink effortlessly with enough AD leftover to increase demand on the AH and raise prices.

    I may not be doing it, but I can clearly see how a determined player/gold farmer can employ this towards economic success. This myth seems to be working fine for everyone else that bothered to look at the AD creation guide.

    You missed my point, which was: the amount of AD that is pumped into system did not change since beta. Yes, there are players that can make plenty of AD, but they can do just as much AD as they could before mod1.

    Therefore, you cannot blame AD influx for the zax backlog.

    I'll repeat: Zax went crazy only after mod3, and the AD influx was pretty much the same since open beta.

    Facts: Balance between AD and Zen changed significantly after mod3. AD influx did NOT change after mod3.
    Conclusion: AD influx is not the cause of zax backlog.
  • wimpazoidwimpazoid Member Posts: 504 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    ulviel wrote: »
    You missed my point, which was: the amount of AD that is pumped into system did not change since beta. Yes, there are players that can make plenty of AD, but they can do just as much AD as they could before mod1.
    Did I? Let me rephrase that for you: the potential for the amount of AD that is pumped into the system did not change since beta. The actual influx is very different since then.
  • ulvielulviel Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 741 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    wimpazoid wrote: »
    Did I? Let me rephrase that for you: the potential for the amount of AD that is pumped into the system did not change since beta. The actual influx is very different since then.

    Could you please elaborate? With emphasis on what happend after mod3?
  • wimpazoidwimpazoid Member Posts: 504 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    ulviel wrote: »
    Could you please elaborate? With emphasis on what happend after mod3?

    My posts from a couple pages back has some relevance.
    wimpazoid wrote: »
    The rate at which players and gold sellers generate free AD is ever increasing, fast enough to overcome AD sinks introduce. So far the temporary measures by PWE have always resulted fall in prices for a few days, and prices continue rise beyond what it was before the event/sale happened. Permanent AD sinks will only have a longer duration effect before they too are overcome by the increasing rate of AD influx into the economy and its devaluation. AD cannot be more desirable when it's value is ever decreasing. People prefer to hold on to Zen and buy what they need from the Zen store instead of dealing with the increasingly high prices and lowering value of AD.
    wimpazoid wrote: »
    I'm a casual player, I don't need BIS gear, so the bulk of my ADs went into raising various companions from Zen transfers and CTAs to epic quality on multiple characters. Effectively into AD sinks instead of the economy.

    Just a few post above, we have more casual players lamenting the AD sink of companion upgrades are too high, while others can upgrade their companions overcoming this AD sink effortlessly with enough AD leftover to increase demand on the AH and raise prices.
    wimpazoid wrote: »
    You also have to wonder if prices would have reached this high on their own. The black market spoilt the community and created a very high demand, and also consolidated AD towards their faction to future manipulation of prices. As soon as the latest preview went live, dragon eggs were swiped from the market and reposted for double. A lot of the damage is done earlier in the game and you can't help but wonder if PWE's measures simply forced their (gold sellers/market manipulators) hand and really fixes nothing at all.

    It's a build up, Mod3 is simply the event that triggered it's acceleration (forcing the hand of gold sellers/market manipulators), not the cause.

    Rollingonit has already explained it.
    But anyways on topic of the title of the thread. It was inevitable this would happen.

    Because this.



    The timeframe in which it would occur was accelerated by a multitude of reasons, bots being one, but probably not even the main cause. PWE/Cryptic is using it as red herring to implement a bunch of changes, that will help the economy. (those changes would be some of the main issues, but they will up play the bot issue to distract you from the changes/issues)
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  • ulvielulviel Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 741 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    wimpazoid wrote: »
    My posts from a couple pages back has some relevance. ...
    .

    The clue seems to be "AD is generated faster now" which you stated, but not supported by any evidence. this statement makes no sense, since it is kinda obvious bots/gold sellers (and also players, but you seem to emphasize bots) will always produce as much as they can, and I don't see how can they make more now than before.
    You also said that AD sinks would not be enough - again, why do you think so? Cryptic didn't introduce any new sinks yet (nor fixed old ones) so how can you know that?

    Then you quoted something about relativity of companion upgrade costs that didn't explain anything and about black marked which sounds much like some conspiracy theory, and overall bunch of unsupported claims.
  • osterdracheosterdrache Member Posts: 480 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    wimpazoid wrote: »
    My posts from a couple pages back has some relevance.







    It's a build up, Mod3 is simply the event that triggered it's acceleration (forcing the hand of gold sellers/market manipulators), not the cause.

    Rollingonit has already explained it.

    The ZEN backlock has nothing to do with inflation of AD. It is true that AD amounts have increased but so have the sinks (gmarks of potency for example)

    The real problem is the viscious circle of trading ZEN items for more AD than the ZEN has actually cost. People see that they can make a profit selling ZEN items and maximizing their efforts. Thus, they require more ZEN, and with increased demand we have even more profit capability than before. This goes on and on and on.

    The failure was to offer items in the ZEN store that are not only desireable but also highly NEEDED to advance ur character. Coal wards, preservation wards, keys (aka rusted lockboxes with insane RoI), respec tokens.

    The only two things to solve the issues right now are the following
    - devalueing ZEN: cryptic maybe never do it because of buisness reasons but that would calm doen the market
    - increase value for AD: The chicken even proved it, offer items that cost lots of AD and are worth it. Very good are the reinforcement kits in upcoming module. Maybe higher the AD cost to 100k per kit. Excellent AD sink.

    The market will calm down, one way or another.
    Until then I am busy making dozens of millions of AD just by clicking few buttons ;-D
  • anharmonanharmon Member Posts: 175
    edited July 2014
    magenubbie wrote: »
    And that's why it works. It forces them to stay and do something they would and could not do by themselves, and a normal player does without thinking, thereby revealing the difference between the two.

    <snip>

    Your solution is a good thought, but I don't know if it will actually work. For one thing, it's possible that would just throw them off for a few weeks and them better AI allows them to beat the quest. Or, the bots are literally programmed exactly how to beat the boss, move by move. If all else fails, somebody does it for them and then lets the bot take over.

    The main problem I see is that this would be a huge inconvenience to players, not to mention perhaps confusing and potentially disappointing for new players. You may be fighting the bot problem, but at what cost to the legit players?
  • str8slayerstr8slayer Member, Neverwinter Beta Users Posts: 715 Bounty Hunter
    edited July 2014
    Ban the bots! raise the prices!!!
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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  • zoiks100zoiks100 Member Posts: 355 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    magenubbie wrote: »
    <SNIP>
    They have always been TRs. Easier to get to skill nodes. But that is interesting indeed. And quite disturbing I might add. There's nothing of interest to a lvl60 there, not even for a bot. So why would bots change their behavior all of a sudden?
    <SNIP>

    I would assume they're doing it because of the patch last week that supposedly made it so you can't buy zen on an account that hasn't completed Blacklake.
    •The Blacklake District must now be completed on at least one character before being able to buy Zen or learn how to do Invocation.

    Those level 60 TR bots they have running the Old Sharandar Ruins map 24/7 are a good chunk of their AD income. I would imagine they sold all those profession/refining mats on those accounts, used the AD to buy zen and purchase something tradable off the zen store like keys, then flip that back into AD on another account. Not sure how they go about it right now, maybe they just mail all the mats to an account that can convert to zen for now and buy wards, but are looking to get back to doing it the old way so there's no easy bottleneck for Cryptic to catch.
    Don't Panic.
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  • wimpazoidwimpazoid Member Posts: 504 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    ulviel wrote: »
    The clue seems to be "AD is generated faster now" which you stated, but not supported by any evidence. this statement makes no sense, since it is kinda obvious bots/gold sellers (and also players, but you seem to emphasize bots) will always produce as much as they can, and I don't see how can they make more now than before.
    You also said that AD sinks would not be enough - again, why do you think so? Cryptic didn't introduce any new sinks yet (nor fixed old ones) so how can you know that?

    Then you quoted something about relativity of companion upgrade costs that didn't explain anything and about black marked which sounds much like some conspiracy theory, and overall bunch of unsupported claims.
    You still don't get what I'm saying. It's not that it's possible to generate AD at a rate faster now then your precious beta period. It's the possibility to generate a theoretically limitless supply of AD where in the reality is only limited by the time of day.

    I have not emphasized bots so much as reveal a system that devalues AD. I have no more energy after showing how high priced AD sinks can already be overcome easily and repeatedly through AD generation. There's no conspiracy theory, when the persistent existence of botters and market manipulators are acknowledged. They wouldn't be here for no reason.
  • empalasempalas Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 802 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    Couple things here...one is that the floor of AD for you to make a r7 enchant/rune is around 80k AD just on the potency marks you have to purchase . Current prices for radiant enchants will cost you around 70-80k AD to get enough enchants to upgrade enough to r7. Throw in a 2 or 3 pres wards at 6k a pop and you get around 175k AD for you to make a r7 yourself. So I don't necessarily see the 230K AD for a radiant r7 to be that bad. The price has increased because the backdoor was removed that allowed people to upgrade via fusion that was used pre mod 2. The coal wards have nothing to do with the price of these since you can use pres wards for anything that isn't 1%.

    Coal wards do have plenty to do with the cost of weap and armor enchants since those are 1% and realistically need coal wards.

    For the ZAX and prices one thing I feel that was done which I think hurt this a lot was making a lot of the boss drops BOP. Those were the big ticket items besides things in lockboxes, high level enchants and runes. And also once they made it so you could be guaranteed a BOP from the chest that also curtailed the prices on the AH. Without those big ticket items on the AH and people can get what they want without being totally subject to the RNG well this is where we find ourselves. There needs to be more randomness to the best armor and weap and it shouldn't be BOP. That should then get things flowing again. I know people will worry about certain people farming for this or that and the prices of the armor/weaps is outrageous on the AH. But that is exactly what you want. There has to be high AD prices on something that people want and don't want to wait to make the AD or farm it. There is almost nothing of value right now that is worth buying AD for. That's my opinion...and obviously the current state of the ZAX shows that very sentiment. As far as them bypassing the ZAX and putting things bought with Zen up on the AH...what really is there of value that anyone wants that isn't
    BOA or BOP?

    Just my thoughts...
  • ulvielulviel Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 741 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    The ZEN backlock has nothing to do with inflation of AD. It is true that AD amounts have increased but so have the sinks (gmarks of potency for example)

    The real problem is the viscious circle of trading ZEN items for more AD than the ZEN has actually cost.

    Whaaaa? Backlog having nothing to do with inflation of AD? And what do you think inflation af AD is if not increased value of zen in relation to AD? Increased value = higher demand = lower supply > increasing backlog.

    The vicious circle surely exists here, but it could only start AFTER the backlog was created. If the zax wouldn't reach the cap, you would not be able to make profit selling zen items instead of zen. People would simply not buy something that is at least 10% more expensive (you need to add 10% AH cut to the price) if they don't have to. Ok, I understand they don't really *have to* now, but the alternative is waiting a week, which is pretty good motivation to spend some more virtual money instead.
  • wimpazoidwimpazoid Member Posts: 504 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    nevermind, im the one wrong
  • ulvielulviel Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 741 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    wimpazoid wrote: »
    You still don't get what I'm saying. It's not that it's possible to generate AD at a rate faster now then your precious beta period. It's the possibility to generate a theoretically limitless supply of AD where in the reality is only limited by the time of day.

    Erm what? You are right, I totally do not get what are you talking about.
    Whatever those theoretically limitless supply of AD are, only what is "in the reality" really matters, and if not than please explain why.

    Still many claims without explanations.
  • anharmonanharmon Member Posts: 175
    edited July 2014
    Here I thought the Zen backlog was also partly due to keys being bound ... you can no longer dish out AD for them, but have to go throw the ZAX.
  • bioshrikebioshrike Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 4,729 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    As far as more AD being generated now than before, one obvious cause is the Lord Protector dailies, as well as the expanded list of ones available from Rhix.
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  • beckylunaticbeckylunatic Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 14,231 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    magenubbie wrote: »
    lvl60 bots are actually gathering in blacklake

    I don't know what they're doing there, but there's been a steady coming-and-going of bots in Blacklake just like there are in Rothe Valley and Hotenow for a long time. You just see them piled up at the gate. I go to Blacklake every time I need to upgrade an enchantment because of personal superstitions and biases, so I'm there by the entry quite a bit. I'm prepared to say the bots predate any announcements about having to complete Blacklake by months. Running around actively in the zone, I couldn't comment on.

    By the way, there are a lot more than 4 skill nodes in Blacklake. That you'd think so only tells me you haven't really looked. There are loads. I used to farm them back when I was trying to level up Alchemy for the first time, but Tower ultimately had a more efficient route.
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  • wimpazoidwimpazoid Member Posts: 504 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    A lot of people don't understand that there's two basic methods to profiteering. One is sell low in bulk. The unbound keys, coalescent wards and enchantments were the problem, not Mod3 or the act of removing them.

    And then we see the market being cornered overnight every time news surface or the changes went live. Who are these select group of people with the resources to do this? The same people we made rich by buying in bulk what they offered in the past. This is the second basic method of profiteering, to sell high.

    We may get the impression of free market by selling an item and undercutting slightly, but ultimately these prices are not within our control anymore.

    It's already very late what PWE is trying to do to fix the economy here, but their efforts are more of a long term goal. It's pointless to ask them to unbind coalescent wards and enchanted keys to 'fix' the economy, simply because their countermeasures are not the problem, they simply accelerated an inevitable situation. They are looking at the long term to fix the economy, while players are looking for the short term fix for their benefit.

    By now, PWE can't simply just remove this AD from the game even if it's not legit because it's already in circulation among legit and non legit accounts alike even if it's being held in Zen. Players no longer have a choice but to ride out the extreme prices until the AD in circulation is reduced over a long term period. The only thing hindering this process is the continued generation of large amounts of AD through leadership, which is legit AD, but its working against the countermeasures set in place.
  • beckylunaticbeckylunatic Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 14,231 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    magenubbie wrote: »
    PS yea I know there's more than 4. there's 4 in the tatters alone. I picked a random number to illustrate that a some lvl1 and 2 enchants aren't going to make them any profit anytime soon if that's all they're going to get.

    The thing is that Blacklake and exterior Tower have no enchants in nodes at all. Unless lowbie crafting materials are worth a lot more than I would have guessed, I really don't know what they're doing there.
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  • zshikarazshikara Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 796 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    I only started playing in June during the 1 year celebrations so I haven't seen the economy as a lot of people say it used to be. All I know is that it will literally take me months if not over a year to get enough AD to buy the enchants and coal wards and stuff I need to fully deck out my character. I've already got decent gear and I'm working on my artifacts now, but I'm still using rank 6 and 5 enchants.

    How in the heck am I supposed to get my gearscore over 17K at this rate to participate with the elite in this game? I've always prided myself at being one of the best at what I do in any game I play. This will be no exception in the end.
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  • query523query523 Member Posts: 1,515 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    ulviel wrote: »
    No it is not. How exactly are you going to tell the difference between a bot and a legit player? Fun fact, I have 2 lvl4 alts with lvl 3 enchants, and they didn't take anything from my other chars.

    But hey, I have other, very simple and 100% effective solution: get rid of all trade. Close the AH, remove trade between players, make guild banks just an extra personal space for guild members, problem solved.

    Truth. I 'store' enchants I am refining on toons I am leveling. Take up less space and makes leveling easier.
  • ulvielulviel Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 741 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    bioshrike wrote: »
    As far as more AD being generated now than before, one obvious cause is the Lord Protector dailies, as well as the expanded list of ones available from Rhix.

    This could be an answer to my question (why was backlog created after mod3, and not before)
    magenubbie wrote: »
    He's referring to the leadership tasks which are as good a continuous source of money as any old money printer you can steal from your local mint.

    I know how to make AD. I was asking why is it supposedly easier after mod3 than before.
    wimpazoid wrote: »
    A lot of people don't understand that there's two basic methods to profiteering. One is sell low in bulk. (...)

    Yes, yes, the thing is, you see, you can "print" 24k/char/day max, period. Of course, you can get more from AH or selling zen via zax, but those both are AD already existing in the system, i.e. you did not print them, but somebody else had to. So if you are using AH, you are not injecting AD into system, in fact, you remove a part of it (10% cut).

    Which is why I really can't see how the whales manipulating AH are contributing to the zax backlog.
  • wimpazoidwimpazoid Member Posts: 504 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    You are simply arguing from a single person's point of view. Nobody said it was easier or faster for any one person, how you keep emphasizing your 24k/char/day limit makes no sense. It is accumulative of the player base of an increasing rate of AD generation.

    I don't know why I'm bothering to explain to you when it's just ignored, and you just make excuses to favor your point of view. Mod3 and its counter measures were not the cause period, they simply sped up events so PWE can start the process of removing AD over time. Players simply want their free money, to revert to earlier prices and get their stuff right away instead of wanting to see the truth.
  • sugarliessugarlies Member, Neverwinter Beta Users Posts: 99
    edited July 2014
    magenubbie wrote: »
    Second, if you think that a bot program is simply modified to kill bosses all of a sudden, you have a very romantic idea of how far automated gameplay goes.

    I laughed so hard. So hard. I recall when our warlock in WoW said he wanted to try the effectiveness of his bot in a heroic raid with us. It was pretty <font color="orange">HAMSTER</font>, but still 60% performance.

    Bots are so advanced now, they can even PvP against you.
  • ulvielulviel Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 741 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    wimpazoid wrote: »
    You are simply arguing from a single person's point of view.

    Quite the opposite. You are talking about the single player's income, I am talking about global AD influx and how you failed to explain why is it bigger now than before.
    I am saying it is as big as it always was, and the Zen shortage is caused by higher zen demand.

    If I am wrong, please tell me how and why, because "players simply want their free money" doesn't explain anything.
  • sugarliessugarlies Member, Neverwinter Beta Users Posts: 99
    edited July 2014
    As a side note, I have this level 4 CW. I got him the account companions I had and I've been doing Sword Coast Adventures on him. Tier 5 rewards rank 3 and rank 4.
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