I also make more AD now than when I stared the game. The question if a player with, for example, 3 months experience now can make more than a player with 3 months experience then.
This is largely irrelevant unless you assume that the number of players now and then is exactly the same and comprises the same mix of new and experienced players. It's also quite difficult to be so specific since different people have different play styles and progression through the game. For instance, in my first three months I levelled 2 different toons but didn't get either to 60 and my profession levelling was haphazard. Others level one toon at a time and are much more systematic.
Of course at the very beginning of the game we could have less AD from leadership since nobody had lvl 20 yet, on the other hand protecting caravan was giving 200 AD...
And it is not like we only have "old" players now.
About that extra AD sources, they are all 1.for active playing, and an active player could reach the refinment ratio back then pretty easily.
About alts requiring less AD you are ofc right, but 1. they usually only do leadership and invoking, those new sources of AD are not for them 2.it's not like players couldn't make exactly as many alts before mod1 as they can now.
You have made a number of assumptions here which do not hold. For example, I currently have 4 toons that I actively play and will be adding a 5th with Mod 4. All of them will eventually be able to reach the max refining cap and all of them will benefit from the new sources of AD generation. I very much doubt that I am unique.
The whole argument we have is about whimpazoid saying the zax backlog is a result of increased AD generatin rate (I assume he means per player, but who knows, he also somewhere said the increased NW population contributed to it), which I am not buying. I belive it is the result of increased Zen demand (remember how zax started to climb up steadily only after introducing weekly sales?).
AD generation rate per player has increased. The consequence of this is that AD generation rate in the economy as a whole has increased by the product of the per player increase times the increased number of players. It's simple math. If each player is generating more AD and you have more players, the amount of AD generated as a whole increases multiplicatively.
As for the ZAX backlog, there are probably multiple reasons. Excess AD will be one of them as this decreases the need for players to convert Zen into AD. Increased demand for Zen could be another, as could decreased supply of Zen. In order to unpick this you would need access to historical data on the rate, number, and size of Zax transactions over the last few months rather than just the conversion rate and backlog.
I agree with the OP. The economy is basically at the implosion point. People that already have their gear and ways to make money will be fine but new players will meet a huge brick wall at level 60.
Even if they wanted to just spend real money to get over the wall, the amount required to do it legitimately is prohibilitive, and the risks of 3rd party sites are equally prohibitive.
I really don't see it boding well for the longevity of the game, especially with new f2p games like Archeage coming out shortly.
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bajornorbertMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 272Arc User
edited August 2014
I haven't read all the posts, so forgive me if i repeat something already said, but here is my two cents how to solve this problem.
What lead to the current situation, as many have said already, is the lack of AD sinks, esp for endgame players, since when you maxed out your character, you have nothing to spend your AD on. This would probably require changes that are too big to be implemented, but there are a lot of ppl who haven't yet maxed out their character, or have an alt that's not finished, so they need to spend AD, but they will probably hold on to their AD, if they have enough, and buy rank 10s and perfects. So the players that should be targeted atm, are the ones who doesn't have a maxed out character, but are active players, who are getting close to it.
What should be done:
1. Add Coal. wards to the Wondrous Bazaar for 400k AD, since the Zen:AD ratio should normally be around 400:1, it's the same amount of AD that it'll cost you to buy from the Zen Store normally;
2. Add Pres. wards to the Wondrous Bazaar. Same as above, calculated at an exchange rate of 400:1, so 10 pres wards for 40k AD;
3. Add Peridots to the Bazaar. 1 peridot = 1k AD, resulting in 2AD/RP, which is pretty good;
4. Lower the prices of the transmutes and "starter" weapons/armors available in the Bazaar, because nobody in their right mind will spend millions of AD on a transmute;
5. Lower the prices of the mount training manuals, because paying ~7k Zen for a 110% mount is too much. If the total cost, including the price of the mount, would be around 4k Zen, a lot more people would buy it.
AD needs to be taken out of the market at a much faster rate than it is done atm, the 10% that's taken by the AH is nothing. The biggest and most effective AD sink in this game is the refinement (enchantments, artifacts). If you would allow people to spend AD on the items required, instead of Zen only, players would have an incentive to use their AD, and less reason to block the Zax, and since players would now buy the wards from an NPC, the AD spent will disappear from the market, the same way is if they were to exchange it to Zen and spend it in the Zen store.
To solve and prevent the blocking of Zax, you should implement a safeguard that lowers the maximum possible price of Zen if there is a huge backlog, something like -10AD / 1mil in backlog. Ex. if the backlog is 1mil, max Zen:AD ration is lowered to 490:1, if it's 10mil, as now, it would be lowered to 400:1. That will force Zax to be constantly moving, since blocking the market, will result in a loss. Atm the only people selling Zen, are the ones who bought Zen for $, because they needed AD in-game, and the hackers, since you can't transfer Zen.
Imo, the Zen:AD ratio should be between 350:1 and 400:1, and constantly moving so AD can be made and lost again on the Zax.
What should be done:
1. Add Coal. wards to the Wondrous Bazaar for 400k AD, since the Zen:AD ratio should normally be around 400:1, it's the same amount of AD that it'll cost you to buy from the Zen Store normally;
2. Add Pres. wards to the Wondrous Bazaar. Same as above, calculated at an exchange rate of 400:1, so 10 pres wards for 40k AD;
3. Add Peridots to the Bazaar. 1 peridot = 1k AD, resulting in 2AD/RP, which is pretty good;
These three points brought up by Bajornorbert I strongly agree with. We need AD sinks, but they need to be everyday kind of sinks, like these. Everyone needs coal wards, pres wards, and refinment points. This would solve so many issues with the economy right now in game.
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How can players make more AD now than then again? I accept the possibilty you answered this question somewhere and I simply couldn't see it behind those walls of text, in which case I ask you to repeat it, with one short sentence if possible and without telling what I may said.
Simply because they can.
Answered. Just stop ignoring what people are telling you and claiming no one has explained it to you.
I in turn pose this question to you
Can players not make more AD from a fixed point in time over any feasibly long duration given the goal is to maximize AD generation? Straight to the point, actual real world situation, no hypothetical nonsense.
This posts topic will be: the average AD generation per player today and 1 year ago.
Do you seriously not see what I have to deal with? You literally wrote one thing and proclaim something else for the xxth time.
Average AD generation per player and AD generation of an average player are two very different things. You contest average rate with me, but in actuality you only talk about the AD generation of a single player (single character limit).
What I've been telling you since page 5 is you are on a different frequency. You use a theoretical throughput of a single player (or rather a singer character) to contest a real world dynamic rate of AD generation determined by dynamic factors and a dynamic population (which is in fact the true average rate, for 9 pages I'm saying it) and claim a hypothetical constant rate of AD generation (key word hypothetical), which you have yet to or can't prove.
The question if a player with, for example, 3 months experience now can make more than a player with 3 months experience then.
Of course at the very beginning of the game we could have less AD from leadership since nobody had lvl 20 yet, on the other hand protecting caravan was giving 200 AD...
And it is not like we only have "old" players now.
About that extra AD sources, they are all 1.for active playing, and an active player could reach the refinment ratio back then pretty easily.
About alts requiring less AD you are ofc right, but 1. they usually only do leadership and invoking, those new sources of AD are not for them 2.it's not like players couldn't make exactly as many alts before mod1 as they can now.
All of these.... your personal conditions and assumptions you enforce for your own specific scenario. You ask me to debate on your topic, I presented a general case, no specific conditions and numbers. You have posted many times, but never presented a case on the topic you asked to debate.
The whole argument we have is about wimpazoid saying the zax backlog is a result of increased AD generatin rate
Which part of this isn't true, explain. Did anyone say it was the sole reason? To correct you, I've said an increased rate of AD infux (not the same as AD generation, though AD generation affects rate of influx, and players can and will generate as much as they can according to you) devalues the currency and players prefer to hold onto Zen increasing the demand for it, and it's a contributing factor. It's there, starting from my first post on page 5, go and read.
(I assume he means per player, but who knows, he also somewhere said the increased NW population contributed to it), which I am not buying. I belive it is the result of increased Zen demand (remember how zax started to climb up steadily only after introducing weekly sales?).
Starting to see the pattern here? More assumptions. Read above again, you brought the per player nonsense onto the table.
While that maybe true for you, it isn't for everyone...
...in act, I#ld bet only for a tiny minority of the players.
(At least from what I heard of guildmembers).
I - like most players and probably close to all casuals - don't see workforce management as 'play' (otherwise I'ld play some other kind of game), and to do like you do would mean to spend most of my time ingame with that kind gruesome tasks.
I, too, increased my AD income during the year, from 0 to maybe 150k-200k per week over 7 toons, but the AD sinks kepp up, easily.
So I doubt (without Cryptic giving us numbers) that the problem is the AD production by the main player force, who simply lacks time and will, which did not rise during the last year.
Calvin1tag isn't wrong with his summary. Ulviel asked specifically to debate upon ad generation alone and nothing else.
First, it is a bit humorous (to me, at least) that this thread is already 16-17 pages long. Obviously everyone had their own respective opinions about the "problems" with the game's economy. There is probably partial truth/reality in many of the opinions offered.
Keep in mind, ANY economy, real or gaming, is VERY complex and there is typically no simple answer to "fix" it.
Simplifying things to what I feel are the most important items to address, my opinion is that the game needs (1) more appealing AD sinks, (2) more non-binding coalescent ward sources, and (3) better in-game monitoring for bot activity (such as implementation of in-game GMs or Admins). I think implementing these 3 things would do wonders for the game's economy without hurting the long-term profitability of the game for the several companies that have ownership/licensing interest (Cryptic, PWE, WotWC, Habsbro, etc.).
myles08807 said, "Back in my day, we didn't have any of this fancy Mulhorand gear while we were leveling . . . we walked uphill both ways while dying once every five seconds while leveling, and we liked it fine!" . . . Now, get off my lawn, you kids!" pointsman said, "I don't rue the game. In fact I don't feel any regret for the game at all." looomis said, "I don't like people changing to alts and then bragging about their mains like schizophrenic role players."
Calvin1tag isn't wrong with his summary. Ulviel asked specifically to debate upon ad generation alone and nothing else.
But enough of the AD red herring. The current backlog is not the result of an overabundance of AD nor an increase in the rate of AD generation. It's self perpetuating since the rate is locked in at 500:1 and there is no risk in holding and accumulating more Zen.
Right now you can't get keys for AD and you have to overpay to get wards for AD, thus everyone wants Zen. This creates a HUGE imbalance, regardless of AD production.
Don't forget there were tons of folks with HUGE (billions) amounts of AD post Caturday. The Zax didn't end up with a 9M backlog at 500:1 then. Whatever the AD influx is today, it is nowhere near what it was in the Caturday times.
Happy 10 million backlog everyone! There is now currently more than 5,220,521,775 AD in the Zen exchange as of this post (more since there are probably offers for 495 and below). Did anyone bring any cake?
But enough of the AD red herring. The current backlog is not the result of an overabundance of AD nor an increase in the rate of AD generation. It's self perpetuating since the rate is locked in at 500:1 and there is no risk in holding and accumulating more Zen.
Right now you can't get keys for AD and you have to overpay to get wards for AD, thus everyone wants Zen. This creates a HUGE imbalance, regardless of AD production.
Don't forget there were tons of folks with HUGE (billions) amounts of AD post Caturday. The Zax didn't end up with a 9M backlog at 500:1 then. Whatever the AD influx is today, it is nowhere near what it was in the Caturday times.
myles08807 said, "Back in my day, we didn't have any of this fancy Mulhorand gear while we were leveling . . . we walked uphill both ways while dying once every five seconds while leveling, and we liked it fine!" . . . Now, get off my lawn, you kids!" pointsman said, "I don't rue the game. In fact I don't feel any regret for the game at all." looomis said, "I don't like people changing to alts and then bragging about their mains like schizophrenic role players."
myles08807 said, "Back in my day, we didn't have any of this fancy Mulhorand gear while we were leveling . . . we walked uphill both ways while dying once every five seconds while leveling, and we liked it fine!" . . . Now, get off my lawn, you kids!" pointsman said, "I don't rue the game. In fact I don't feel any regret for the game at all." looomis said, "I don't like people changing to alts and then bragging about their mains like schizophrenic role players."
But enough of the AD red herring. The current backlog is not the result of an overabundance of AD nor an increase in the rate of AD generation. It's self perpetuating since the rate is locked in at 500:1 and there is no risk in holding and accumulating more Zen.
Right now you can't get keys for AD and you have to overpay to get wards for AD, thus everyone wants Zen. This creates a HUGE imbalance, regardless of AD production.
Don't forget there were tons of folks with HUGE (billions) amounts of AD post Caturday. The Zax didn't end up with a 9M backlog at 500:1 then. Whatever the AD influx is today, it is nowhere near what it was in the Caturday times.
True. In peaking the market, PWE forced many players to prefer holding Zen.
Whatever the underlying reason I have to say that this is the most broken economy of any MMO I've ever played. And I've played a quite a few over many years.
This starts resembling aruing with a creationist (I know Bible is true because Bible told me so).
They can because they can? Seriously?
Anyway, Ofc I mean the average AD creation per player, that's why told so. I suppose the creation of an average player would be slightly different, but I didn't say anything about that and why are you even mentioning it?
"increased AD influx" you say. Ok, but where could it (if it really is the case) came from if not from increased AD generation?
And you say I see it from a standpoint of a single player. Which is not true. What I am talking about is an average player, like, the whole population with it's total AD&Zen income vs demand divided by the number of players. So where do I get the idea how that average player looks like? Observing the population as a whole, ergo, that I cannot see the bigger picture because my focus is on a single player is just not true.
Oh and I know I am right because I am. See? A perfect evidence.
It would be interesting to see how high the ad to zen would go if they removed the 500 cap for 24hours.
Not something that should ever happen though for no reason other than it would highlight exactly how badly they have affected the exchange rates with tweaks to various systems ingame.
A greed based economy will never ever be a stable one.
It would be interesting to see how high the ad to zen would go if they removed the 500 cap for 24hours.
Not something that should ever happen though for no reason other than it would highlight exactly how badly they have affected the exchange rates with tweaks to various systems ingame.
A greed based economy will never ever be a stable one.
Well AD:ZEN rate if you are selling certain ZEN items in the AH is around 600-650:1 which probably gives a rough idea of what to expect.
I suspect it will initially be less simply because we are in a vicious cycle where the ZEN backlog pushes up the prices of ZEN items in the AH, which means that the people selling it can request even more ZEN which .....
However, I expect it to keep growing given the fact that so much more AD is pouring into the system, especially from Leadership, than is going out. Remember a single leadership alt even with white workers can easily produce ~7K every day, and many legitimate players, let alone botters and gold-farmers, have quite a few of these.....
The current rate going by ah prices might be around the 600 mark but if the cap was removed those with fat wallets and a strange desire to own large sums of virtual currency in a video game would easily pump it up closer to 800+.
At the moment the cap is probably the only thing that is keeping the economy from exploding entirely.
Well you got me there on AD influx, wasn't thinking straight for a moment. It's late at night.
This is how a player and the only way he can generate more AD, progression of time.
Your hypothesis depends solely on time not being a factor, which I have said.
Without the necessity of time progression, he can do so as you say, have the same number of alts, professions and daillies per alt if leveling the alt and professions is instant.
However, time is needed to level each alt to unlock daillies, professions, otherwise, there is ZERO AD generation.
The rate of AD influx is directly dependent on total amount of AD generated into the system, and indirectly to the average generation. Average can be low, but population size may not. It increases as long as sum total entering increase. A possible exception is a severely decreasing population which I've already mention, which is less likely for a growing mmo. My last transaction was during 5~6mil backlog, which took 4 days. It's been weeks since. Infer what you will with that number plus the daily increasing backlog and it's rate of how much leftover AD players can move into the ZAX after consumption and decide if there is an increase/decrease.
Well you got me there on AD influx, wasn't thinking straight for a moment. It's late at night.
This is how a player and the only way he can generate more AD, progression of time.
Your hypothesis depends solely on time not being a factor, which I have said.
Without the necessity of time progression, he can do so as you say, have the same number of alts, professions and daillies per alt if leveling the alt and professions is instant.
However, time is needed to level each alt to unlock daillies, professions, otherwise, there is ZERO AD generation.
The rate of AD influx is directly dependent on total amount of AD generated into the system, and indirectly to the average generation. Average can be low, but population size may not. It increases as long as sum total entering increase. A possible exception is a severely decreasing population which I've already mention, which is less likely for a growing mmo. My last transaction was during 5~6mil backlog, which took 4 days. It's been weeks since. Infer what you will with that number plus the daily increasing backlog and it's rate of how much leftover AD players can move into the ZAX after consumption and decide if there is an increase/decrease.
Time is a factor, however only first months when all players were "fresh" would be "average income" significantly lower. You can start crafting at lvl 10, and getting there takes few hours. If you have no life you can lvl your char to 60 within 2 days (ok, 2 is possible for today's alt that has artifacts, enchants borrowed from main etc, so let's say 3 days).
And the lvl 4 "protecting caravan" was giving more AD/hour than any task we have now. Also free players could get extra char slots faster because of cheaper zen.
Basically, you have a point with the time being a factor, but in august 2013 it was not that important anymore.
What I really cannot agree is, that the total number of players is important. I mean, I have no idea how the free players/ paying ones ratio looks like, but it should be the same no matter if we have 1 mln or 1 thousand players, right? So even if the overall quantity of AD entering the system is bigger, also more Zen is entering the system. Of course the demand for both is proportional too.
So if you belive the overall number of players influences the average Ad generation, you have to explain me how exactly.
than they would gain because people can't justify paying 10 - 15/month for
You do know that another fantasy game has a firm grip over sub based MMO market. As soon as NW goes sub, this game needs to compete with that game. And that game killed dozens of games already.
You do know that another fantasy game has a firm grip over sub based MMO market. As soon as NW goes sub, this game needs to compete with that game. And that game killed dozens of games already.
NW will never go sub. It is not part of the gaming model, which is one of the initial and core parts of online game development. I could spend a lot of time analyzing this, but not worth the effort.
I think the developers and analysts know enough of what is going on, based on the countless threads about the AD glut and economy. Give them time to focus on one thing at a time. But also know that some things will NOT change because the company has to make a profit to stay in business. Some people seems to forget that fact - it can't all be 100% free - some people have to provide funds to keep it alive.
myles08807 said, "Back in my day, we didn't have any of this fancy Mulhorand gear while we were leveling . . . we walked uphill both ways while dying once every five seconds while leveling, and we liked it fine!" . . . Now, get off my lawn, you kids!" pointsman said, "I don't rue the game. In fact I don't feel any regret for the game at all." looomis said, "I don't like people changing to alts and then bragging about their mains like schizophrenic role players."
Ding! 10 mln zax backlog. Not surprising since the only people who were selling Zen recently were doing it either out of philanthropy or out of ignorance.
One other item to add is when I first started the game I frequently bought ZEN and traded it to AD as I was too lazy to farm everything for my growing list of alts and now that I'm making millions in leadership for the last several months I haven't bought ZEN directly. I haven't needed to as I just use the ZAX and I don't care that it's 500 to 1 or that it can (and likely will) take week/s. I can do $200 a month in free ZEN just off AD creation even at 500:1 so I have no reason to buy ZEN any more directly at this point and I'm sure there are many thousands just like me that over time have moved from sellers of ZEN to buyers.
One other item to add is when I first started the game I frequently bought ZEN and traded it to AD as I was too lazy to farm everything for my growing list of alts and now that I'm making millions in leadership for the last several months I haven't bought ZEN directly. I haven't needed to as I just use the ZAX and I don't care that it's 500 to 1 or that it can (and likely will) take week/s. I can do $200 a month in free ZEN just off AD creation even at 500:1 so I have no reason to buy ZEN any more directly at this point and I'm sure there are many thousands just like me that over time have moved from sellers of ZEN to buyers.
That's the problem, there is nothing to spend AD on. You only need it to buy from AH (and there are 2 categories of thing there: 1. Zen items 2. things you can farm yourself. 2nd category is constantly reduced by BoP madness).
Comments
You have made a number of assumptions here which do not hold. For example, I currently have 4 toons that I actively play and will be adding a 5th with Mod 4. All of them will eventually be able to reach the max refining cap and all of them will benefit from the new sources of AD generation. I very much doubt that I am unique.
AD generation rate per player has increased. The consequence of this is that AD generation rate in the economy as a whole has increased by the product of the per player increase times the increased number of players. It's simple math. If each player is generating more AD and you have more players, the amount of AD generated as a whole increases multiplicatively.
As for the ZAX backlog, there are probably multiple reasons. Excess AD will be one of them as this decreases the need for players to convert Zen into AD. Increased demand for Zen could be another, as could decreased supply of Zen. In order to unpick this you would need access to historical data on the rate, number, and size of Zax transactions over the last few months rather than just the conversion rate and backlog.
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Even if they wanted to just spend real money to get over the wall, the amount required to do it legitimately is prohibilitive, and the risks of 3rd party sites are equally prohibitive.
I really don't see it boding well for the longevity of the game, especially with new f2p games like Archeage coming out shortly.
What lead to the current situation, as many have said already, is the lack of AD sinks, esp for endgame players, since when you maxed out your character, you have nothing to spend your AD on. This would probably require changes that are too big to be implemented, but there are a lot of ppl who haven't yet maxed out their character, or have an alt that's not finished, so they need to spend AD, but they will probably hold on to their AD, if they have enough, and buy rank 10s and perfects. So the players that should be targeted atm, are the ones who doesn't have a maxed out character, but are active players, who are getting close to it.
What should be done:
1. Add Coal. wards to the Wondrous Bazaar for 400k AD, since the Zen:AD ratio should normally be around 400:1, it's the same amount of AD that it'll cost you to buy from the Zen Store normally;
2. Add Pres. wards to the Wondrous Bazaar. Same as above, calculated at an exchange rate of 400:1, so 10 pres wards for 40k AD;
3. Add Peridots to the Bazaar. 1 peridot = 1k AD, resulting in 2AD/RP, which is pretty good;
4. Lower the prices of the transmutes and "starter" weapons/armors available in the Bazaar, because nobody in their right mind will spend millions of AD on a transmute;
5. Lower the prices of the mount training manuals, because paying ~7k Zen for a 110% mount is too much. If the total cost, including the price of the mount, would be around 4k Zen, a lot more people would buy it.
AD needs to be taken out of the market at a much faster rate than it is done atm, the 10% that's taken by the AH is nothing. The biggest and most effective AD sink in this game is the refinement (enchantments, artifacts). If you would allow people to spend AD on the items required, instead of Zen only, players would have an incentive to use their AD, and less reason to block the Zax, and since players would now buy the wards from an NPC, the AD spent will disappear from the market, the same way is if they were to exchange it to Zen and spend it in the Zen store.
To solve and prevent the blocking of Zax, you should implement a safeguard that lowers the maximum possible price of Zen if there is a huge backlog, something like -10AD / 1mil in backlog. Ex. if the backlog is 1mil, max Zen:AD ration is lowered to 490:1, if it's 10mil, as now, it would be lowered to 400:1. That will force Zax to be constantly moving, since blocking the market, will result in a loss. Atm the only people selling Zen, are the ones who bought Zen for $, because they needed AD in-game, and the hackers, since you can't transfer Zen.
Imo, the Zen:AD ratio should be between 350:1 and 400:1, and constantly moving so AD can be made and lost again on the Zax.
1. Add Coal. wards to the Wondrous Bazaar for 400k AD, since the Zen:AD ratio should normally be around 400:1, it's the same amount of AD that it'll cost you to buy from the Zen Store normally;
2. Add Pres. wards to the Wondrous Bazaar. Same as above, calculated at an exchange rate of 400:1, so 10 pres wards for 40k AD;
3. Add Peridots to the Bazaar. 1 peridot = 1k AD, resulting in 2AD/RP, which is pretty good;
These three points brought up by Bajornorbert I strongly agree with. We need AD sinks, but they need to be everyday kind of sinks, like these. Everyone needs coal wards, pres wards, and refinment points. This would solve so many issues with the economy right now in game.
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I dont think normal ppl can bring 500kk AD in one day somthing is wrong here .
Mybe this is a bot problem .
Answered. Just stop ignoring what people are telling you and claiming no one has explained it to you.
I in turn pose this question to you
Can players not make more AD from a fixed point in time over any feasibly long duration given the goal is to maximize AD generation? Straight to the point, actual real world situation, no hypothetical nonsense.
Do you? Really? Let's revisit the topic you goaded me into debating.
Do you seriously not see what I have to deal with? You literally wrote one thing and proclaim something else for the xxth time.
Average AD generation per player and AD generation of an average player are two very different things. You contest average rate with me, but in actuality you only talk about the AD generation of a single player (single character limit).
What I've been telling you since page 5 is you are on a different frequency. You use a theoretical throughput of a single player (or rather a singer character) to contest a real world dynamic rate of AD generation determined by dynamic factors and a dynamic population (which is in fact the true average rate, for 9 pages I'm saying it) and claim a hypothetical constant rate of AD generation (key word hypothetical), which you have yet to or can't prove.
There, you just answered my question. No more theoretical rules, conditions and assumptions and hypothetical outcomes.
All of these.... your personal conditions and assumptions you enforce for your own specific scenario. You ask me to debate on your topic, I presented a general case, no specific conditions and numbers. You have posted many times, but never presented a case on the topic you asked to debate.
Which part of this isn't true, explain. Did anyone say it was the sole reason? To correct you, I've said an increased rate of AD infux (not the same as AD generation, though AD generation affects rate of influx, and players can and will generate as much as they can according to you) devalues the currency and players prefer to hold onto Zen increasing the demand for it, and it's a contributing factor. It's there, starting from my first post on page 5, go and read.
Starting to see the pattern here? More assumptions. Read above again, you brought the per player nonsense onto the table.
Keep in mind, ANY economy, real or gaming, is VERY complex and there is typically no simple answer to "fix" it.
Simplifying things to what I feel are the most important items to address, my opinion is that the game needs (1) more appealing AD sinks, (2) more non-binding coalescent ward sources, and (3) better in-game monitoring for bot activity (such as implementation of in-game GMs or Admins). I think implementing these 3 things would do wonders for the game's economy without hurting the long-term profitability of the game for the several companies that have ownership/licensing interest (Cryptic, PWE, WotWC, Habsbro, etc.).
Enjoy!
myles08807 said, "Back in my day, we didn't have any of this fancy Mulhorand gear while we were leveling . . . we walked uphill both ways while dying once every five seconds while leveling, and we liked it fine!" . . . Now, get off my lawn, you kids!"
pointsman said, "I don't rue the game. In fact I don't feel any regret for the game at all."
looomis said, "I don't like people changing to alts and then bragging about their mains like schizophrenic role players."
But enough of the AD red herring. The current backlog is not the result of an overabundance of AD nor an increase in the rate of AD generation. It's self perpetuating since the rate is locked in at 500:1 and there is no risk in holding and accumulating more Zen.
Right now you can't get keys for AD and you have to overpay to get wards for AD, thus everyone wants Zen. This creates a HUGE imbalance, regardless of AD production.
Don't forget there were tons of folks with HUGE (billions) amounts of AD post Caturday. The Zax didn't end up with a 9M backlog at 500:1 then. Whatever the AD influx is today, it is nowhere near what it was in the Caturday times.
What the heck is Caturday?
myles08807 said, "Back in my day, we didn't have any of this fancy Mulhorand gear while we were leveling . . . we walked uphill both ways while dying once every five seconds while leveling, and we liked it fine!" . . . Now, get off my lawn, you kids!"
pointsman said, "I don't rue the game. In fact I don't feel any regret for the game at all."
looomis said, "I don't like people changing to alts and then bragging about their mains like schizophrenic role players."
A AH exploit that happened that caused a rollback during open beta - http://neverwinter.gamepedia.com/Caturday_Survivor%27s_Pack
That's kinda funny . . . but not for the developers . . .
myles08807 said, "Back in my day, we didn't have any of this fancy Mulhorand gear while we were leveling . . . we walked uphill both ways while dying once every five seconds while leveling, and we liked it fine!" . . . Now, get off my lawn, you kids!"
pointsman said, "I don't rue the game. In fact I don't feel any regret for the game at all."
looomis said, "I don't like people changing to alts and then bragging about their mains like schizophrenic role players."
Aelar Hawkwind - Archer
Karrin Feywinter - Mistress of Flame
Errin Duskwalker - Executioner
Darquess - Soulbinder
Not something that should ever happen though for no reason other than it would highlight exactly how badly they have affected the exchange rates with tweaks to various systems ingame.
A greed based economy will never ever be a stable one.
Well AD:ZEN rate if you are selling certain ZEN items in the AH is around 600-650:1 which probably gives a rough idea of what to expect.
I suspect it will initially be less simply because we are in a vicious cycle where the ZEN backlog pushes up the prices of ZEN items in the AH, which means that the people selling it can request even more ZEN which .....
However, I expect it to keep growing given the fact that so much more AD is pouring into the system, especially from Leadership, than is going out. Remember a single leadership alt even with white workers can easily produce ~7K every day, and many legitimate players, let alone botters and gold-farmers, have quite a few of these.....
At the moment the cap is probably the only thing that is keeping the economy from exploding entirely.
This is how a player and the only way he can generate more AD, progression of time.
Your hypothesis depends solely on time not being a factor, which I have said.
Without the necessity of time progression, he can do so as you say, have the same number of alts, professions and daillies per alt if leveling the alt and professions is instant.
However, time is needed to level each alt to unlock daillies, professions, otherwise, there is ZERO AD generation.
The rate of AD influx is directly dependent on total amount of AD generated into the system, and indirectly to the average generation. Average can be low, but population size may not. It increases as long as sum total entering increase. A possible exception is a severely decreasing population which I've already mention, which is less likely for a growing mmo. My last transaction was during 5~6mil backlog, which took 4 days. It's been weeks since. Infer what you will with that number plus the daily increasing backlog and it's rate of how much leftover AD players can move into the ZAX after consumption and decide if there is an increase/decrease.
Time is a factor, however only first months when all players were "fresh" would be "average income" significantly lower. You can start crafting at lvl 10, and getting there takes few hours. If you have no life you can lvl your char to 60 within 2 days (ok, 2 is possible for today's alt that has artifacts, enchants borrowed from main etc, so let's say 3 days).
And the lvl 4 "protecting caravan" was giving more AD/hour than any task we have now. Also free players could get extra char slots faster because of cheaper zen.
Basically, you have a point with the time being a factor, but in august 2013 it was not that important anymore.
What I really cannot agree is, that the total number of players is important. I mean, I have no idea how the free players/ paying ones ratio looks like, but it should be the same no matter if we have 1 mln or 1 thousand players, right? So even if the overall quantity of AD entering the system is bigger, also more Zen is entering the system. Of course the demand for both is proportional too.
So if you belive the overall number of players influences the average Ad generation, you have to explain me how exactly.
You do know that another fantasy game has a firm grip over sub based MMO market. As soon as NW goes sub, this game needs to compete with that game. And that game killed dozens of games already.
NW will never go sub. It is not part of the gaming model, which is one of the initial and core parts of online game development. I could spend a lot of time analyzing this, but not worth the effort.
I think the developers and analysts know enough of what is going on, based on the countless threads about the AD glut and economy. Give them time to focus on one thing at a time. But also know that some things will NOT change because the company has to make a profit to stay in business. Some people seems to forget that fact - it can't all be 100% free - some people have to provide funds to keep it alive.
myles08807 said, "Back in my day, we didn't have any of this fancy Mulhorand gear while we were leveling . . . we walked uphill both ways while dying once every five seconds while leveling, and we liked it fine!" . . . Now, get off my lawn, you kids!"
pointsman said, "I don't rue the game. In fact I don't feel any regret for the game at all."
looomis said, "I don't like people changing to alts and then bragging about their mains like schizophrenic role players."
That's the problem, there is nothing to spend AD on. You only need it to buy from AH (and there are 2 categories of thing there: 1. Zen items 2. things you can farm yourself. 2nd category is constantly reduced by BoP madness).