That's not how odds work. The odds don't change. If's 1% on the first box, it's 1% on the millionth.
I was being sarcastic at people using what they observed to claim a certain % odds. Observed odds and actual odds are different. As the example I stated above, if it was 0.25%, the observed odds could be even less. People just have a lack of understanding when it comes to programing RNG.
Nope. You're right that the odds on a lock box are 1-in-250 when you open 1 box, even if you have just opened 99 or 9999 boxes. But if you are about to open 10 boxes (or 100 or N) you can calculate the odds for that group before you start. Probability has no memory, but it can predict the future.
The odds of getting no ships at all from N boxes is the probability of NOT rolling a 250 on a 250-sided die N times in a row. That is a dependent probability and is simply 0.96 ^ N. That tells you that the chance of getting 1 or more ships is 1.0 - (0.96 ^ N). Take away the chance of no ships from 100% and you get the chance of some ships.
That's not how odds work. The odds don't change. If's 1% on the first box, it's 1% on the millionth.
I was being sarcastic at people using what they observed to claim a certain % odds. Observed odds and actual odds are different. As the example I stated above, if it was 0.25%, the observed odds could be even less. People just have a lack of understanding when it comes to programing RNG.
Actually, that's pretty much how odds work. Yes, odds on lockboxes don't change (or so we assume), thus I can just use the binomial distribution to calculate them. (Actually, I simplified by using the normal distribution here, since it's close enough with a sigma of almost 10).
And yes, what you call "observed odds" can be different from the real odds. However, with enough tries (and 10k here is enough) they will get closer and closer to the real odds and cannot in practice deviate over certain amounts at all. The combination of "1% real odds" and ".4% result of a 10k experiment" is for all practical purposes impossible.
And all of this has nothing to do with the programming of an RNG at all.
As for my last calculation: 2 tries with 1% success does not equal 2% chance of success - otherwise we would reach 100% after 100 tries, which, as you stated, won't happen.
Yeah, pretty much if you take a probability and statistics class you would eventually come across a formula that will allow to you calculate the probability an event over a series of attempts. The formula to calculate with a single attempt is as follows:
Chance of Success = 100% - Chance of Failure
The formula to calculate with multiple attempts is as follows:
Chance of Success = 100% - Chance of Failure ^ Number of Attempt
Which basically could be written as follows:
P(s) = 1 - P(f)^n
If the chance of winning a Lockbox Ship is 0.5%, then that means the chance of not winning a Lockbox Ship is 99.5%. The formula would be written as follows:
P(s) = 1 - 0.995^n
Each individual attempt to open a Lockbox will only result in a 0.5% chance of winning a Lockbox Ship.
P(s) = 1 - 0.995^1 = 1 - 0.995 = 0.05 = .05%
The more attempts you make, the higher the overall probability you will win a Lockbox Ship.
If you want an overall probability of roughly 50% to get a Lockbox Ship assuming the chance of winning is 0.5%, then you will need to open 138 lockboxes.
pssst this wotn work if every1 is selling masterkeys and no opens boxes ot sell those ships
And if a giant meteor hits your house then it's game over man. Odds are about the same. Your idea is based on the number of lock boxes being opened falling to zero.
There will more than likely always be people who like to open lock boxes. Some of them will not want the ships but do it to stock up on Lobi for other items and ships. How they purchase those keys can be done in a few different ways. The reason there are new lock boxes every couple of months is to try and appeal to everyone over time. You might not like this lock box but you might want the ship or Lobi ship and items from the next one. There is enough of a supply and demand relationship to provide people to fulfill all sides and maintain the market. Like with any market, there will be times when supply is higher than the demand, making things cheaper for those buying with EC. When the demand is higher, ships will cost more. When new boxes come out, more keys sell in the C-Store and on the Exchange. The systems works for everyone in one way or another.
Crossfield's are definitely coming down in price. When I bought mine, I paid 433 million EC. The cheapest on the Exchange currently is 385 million all but 1 EC.
$50 Dollars (U.S.) on average will only net you 40 Keys - in order to purchase a premium lockbox ship worth 1.5 Billion - you will need an average 375 Keys. It is insanity the amount of Greenback you need to spend to acquire enough keys for resale for the EC needed.
$100 - Nets 80Keys
$100 - Nets 80Keys
$100 - Nets 80Keys
$100 - Nets 80Keys
$400 Dollars (US) Total - 320 Keys - 55Keys shy of the goal
Do you really want to spend $400 bucks and then some on a virtual item? Sure they may throw key sales - and if you have a lifetime account (Which only put a very very very small dent on the price of a premium ship)
That's a whole lot of investment, you could always try to buy cheaper ships and re-sell them, maybe moving your EC net worth up some, however; In the end it is going to be a long haul.
As of this post, master keys are selling for 4.2mil. Using that figure, here are some cost updates on popular ships:
Vanguard = 395mil
395/4.2 = 94 keys
A guy in my fleet wanted that ship and just opened 200 boxes. No ship. When I told him he could have just sold 100 keys and had enough EC to buy it, he said he probably won't be playing for a while. Not saying he did anything "wrong", but it pays to ask people for advice before spending large amounts of money.
Do you really want to spend $400 bucks and then some on a virtual item? Sure they may throw key sales - and if you have a lifetime account (Which only put a very very very small dent on the price of a premium ship)
Lots of people drop hundreds on some pop culture statue or sci fi ships to sit on their desk and never actually be "played" with, just looked at. If someone spends $400 on a virtual ship they actually get to play with for a few years is that really a worse investment than spending it on a "real" ship that just sits there?
$400 + Bucks dude, that is like 2 lifetime accounts when they are on sale - OUCH! Just saying.
I mean if you have the bread to spare and throw away, Kudos, but some folks need to really focus on their gaming priority, lol. The only upside I see from the expenditure, you are going to acquire a whole lot of lobi crystals, useless mark boosts, VIP Dilithium claims, and weapon, modules, & trait packs.
well traits, modules, and wep packs will probably come from lesser costing ships. Connie and things like that will net you lobi crystals and TRIBBLE ton of R&D boxes, and those tend to be more expensive than keys.
As of this post, master keys are selling for 4.2mil. Using that figure, here are some cost updates on popular ships:
Vanguard = 395mil
395/4.2 = 94 keys
A guy in my fleet wanted that ship and just opened 200 boxes. No ship. When I told him he could have just sold 100 keys and had enough EC to buy it, he said he probably won't be playing for a while. Not saying he did anything "wrong", but it pays to ask people for advice before spending large amounts of money.
That's no better than those people who go to the casinos and spend every last cent hoping to win. With any form of gambling, there is no guarantee you will win the top prize regardless of how much you spend.
not really..i can go play blackjack in vegas and make money. and the reason i can do this is i Know how to play the game.
sto,is a very deep and complicated game for casuals and newbies. theres almost no advice given on the ps4 side of things in zone chat,and the ship/exchange prices are insane. the old ships are at 500 million,and the new stuff? billion plus. id rather just pay real money to the Store in Sto,than to give it to some Gouger on the exchange.... esp considering some of us dont have the time needed to grind in this game.
so us newbies wont be earning enough to buy an exchange ship anytime soon. that leaves us w the gambling lockboxes. which,is a waste of time and lots of money for keys on a Gamble.
also,please dont pee on my leg and tell me its raining...some of the rewards for opening boxes has been GREEN items! not only worthless,but why? am i getting green stuff out of a lockbox i paid to open?
Well, I am gonna open some of my Infinity Lockboxes to collect Lobi Crystals to purchase some Boolean Cannons from the Lobi Store whenever ground gear gets a 20% off sale.
If I happen to get a T6 ship, then great. If not then whatever. However... if for some strange reason I only get a single Lobi Crystal from a Lockbox, then I would be pretty pissed.
Well, I am gonna open some of my Infinity Lockboxes to collect Lobi Crystals to purchase some Boolean Cannons from the Lobi Store whenever ground gear gets a 20% off sale.
If I happen to get a T6 ship, then great. If not then whatever. However... if for some strange reason I only get a single Lobi Crystal from a Lockbox, then I would be pretty pissed.
I'm tempted to open a few R&D packs for the lobi, but the pack contents are so lacking in value compared to the lock box consolation prizes
not really..i can go play blackjack in vegas and make money.
and the reason i can do this is i Know how to play the game.
sto,is a very deep and complicated game for casuals and newbies.
theres almost no advice given on the ps4 side of things in zone chat,and the ship/exchange prices are insane.
the old ships are at 500 million,and the new stuff?
billion plus.
id rather just pay real money to the Store in Sto,than to give it to some Gouger on the exchange....
esp considering some of us dont have the time needed to grind in this game.
so us newbies wont be earning enough to buy an exchange ship anytime soon.
that leaves us w the gambling lockboxes.
which,is a waste of time and lots of money for keys on a Gamble.
also,please dont pee on my leg and tell me its raining...some of the rewards for opening boxes has been GREEN items!
not only worthless,but why? am i getting green stuff out of a lockbox i paid to open?
Lock boxes and digital gambling games aren't comparable to cards. With card games, your odds actually aren't too bad. With digital and computerized games, the odds are well beyond being in the favor of the player. Lock boxes for STO have a less than a half of a percent of you getting the top prize.
well,tbh,i dont recall which box is it anymore.
you see,we`ve opened a ton of boxes and gotten pretty much garbage out of them all.
discovery,kelvin,teste whatev.
huge waste of real money with nothing even worth selling on the exchange.
we dont even bother picking them up anymore in battles.
as complete newbs,
we have decided to just play the game and wait for what we want to maybe someday get cheap enough on the exchange.
considering the discovery ship is vanishing fast from the list on ps4,
theres not much chance of us scoring one,much less 2.
current price just under 400 million.
doesnt matter,because just last nite,we discovered we cant dismiss ships in drydock,
After we had bought...more ships.
which means we are totally screwed now.
only way out? pay more real money to open more slots.
even better,i come home all happy from work last nite,
load up the ps4 and grab 50 bucks worth of zen and head to the store,
only to discover the 20 keys/tech upgrade key sale is gone...Again...
in the middle of the 8th anniversary event,weve shut down the sale?
really??.................?
note to whomever is counting the beans.
that zen will sit there till that sale comes back kk?
thanks.
Walk into Cryptic HQ while brandishing an organically grown cucumber ( Remember, these are computer geeks, and only survive on take-outs, Redbull and sugar/salty snacks, so fresh produce will let them know your serious about trying to make them eat something healthy ) and demand a winning lockbox and a free key or you'll open a window and gas them with fresh air and burn them with natural light.
Now that was funny.
__________________________________
STO Forum member since before February 2010. STO Academy's excellent skill planner here: Link I actually avoid success entirely. It doesn't get me what I want, and the consequences for failure are slim. -- markhawman
Comments
Nope. You're right that the odds on a lock box are 1-in-250 when you open 1 box, even if you have just opened 99 or 9999 boxes. But if you are about to open 10 boxes (or 100 or N) you can calculate the odds for that group before you start. Probability has no memory, but it can predict the future.
The odds of getting no ships at all from N boxes is the probability of NOT rolling a 250 on a 250-sided die N times in a row. That is a dependent probability and is simply 0.96 ^ N. That tells you that the chance of getting 1 or more ships is 1.0 - (0.96 ^ N). Take away the chance of no ships from 100% and you get the chance of some ships.
Actually, that's pretty much how odds work. Yes, odds on lockboxes don't change (or so we assume), thus I can just use the binomial distribution to calculate them. (Actually, I simplified by using the normal distribution here, since it's close enough with a sigma of almost 10).
And yes, what you call "observed odds" can be different from the real odds. However, with enough tries (and 10k here is enough) they will get closer and closer to the real odds and cannot in practice deviate over certain amounts at all. The combination of "1% real odds" and ".4% result of a 10k experiment" is for all practical purposes impossible.
And all of this has nothing to do with the programming of an RNG at all.
As for my last calculation: 2 tries with 1% success does not equal 2% chance of success - otherwise we would reach 100% after 100 tries, which, as you stated, won't happen.
P(SS)=.01*.01=.0001
P(SF)=.01*.99=.0099
P(FS)=.99*.01=.0099
P(FF)=.99*.99=.9801
As you can see, neither the odds of at least one success (.0199) nor those of exactly one success (.0198) are 2%.
Chance of Success = 100% - Chance of Failure
The formula to calculate with multiple attempts is as follows:
Chance of Success = 100% - Chance of Failure ^ Number of Attempt
Which basically could be written as follows:
P(s) = 1 - P(f)^n
If the chance of winning a Lockbox Ship is 0.5%, then that means the chance of not winning a Lockbox Ship is 99.5%. The formula would be written as follows:
P(s) = 1 - 0.995^n
Each individual attempt to open a Lockbox will only result in a 0.5% chance of winning a Lockbox Ship.
P(s) = 1 - 0.995^1 = 1 - 0.995 = 0.05 = .05%
The more attempts you make, the higher the overall probability you will win a Lockbox Ship.
2 Attempts : P(s) = 1 - 0.995^2 = 1 - 0.990025 = 0.9975%
3 Attempts : P(s) = 1 - 0.995^3 = 1 - 0.9850749 = 1.49251%
If you want an overall probability of roughly 50% to get a Lockbox Ship assuming the chance of winning is 0.5%, then you will need to open 138 lockboxes.
138 Attempts : P(s) = 1 - 0.995^138 = 1 - 0.5007087 = 49.92913%
420/ 4 = 105.
This is the same ship someone said would stay at 1.5bil for at least a year.
/cheers
Sure it can! If the price of keys drops to 500,000EC a key or less, then opening lock boxes won't be so expensive. :P
You are RIGHT that all ships comes from boxes, so if no one opened boxes there would be no ships.
You are WRONG that if everyone who wanted the ships just bought them on the exchange there would be no ships.
The very fact that there are ships for sell on the exchange PROVES there are people opening boxes who DON'T want ships.
It simply amazes me how many fail at basic logic.
And if a giant meteor hits your house then it's game over man. Odds are about the same. Your idea is based on the number of lock boxes being opened falling to zero.
Someone always says this.. and they are always wrong.
You're selling keys to get the EC. What do you think the users buying the keys are doing with them?
That's right.. opening boxes.
Kelvin Connie = 280mil
280/4.2 = 67 keys
TOS Connie = 1.3bil
1300/4.2 = 310 keys
Vanguard = 395mil
395/4.2 = 94 keys
Vengeance = 230mil
230/4.2 = 55 keys
$100 - Nets 80Keys
$100 - Nets 80Keys
$100 - Nets 80Keys
$100 - Nets 80Keys
$400 Dollars (US) Total - 320 Keys - 55Keys shy of the goal
Do you really want to spend $400 bucks and then some on a virtual item? Sure they may throw key sales - and if you have a lifetime account (Which only put a very very very small dent on the price of a premium ship)
That's a whole lot of investment, you could always try to buy cheaper ships and re-sell them, maybe moving your EC net worth up some, however; In the end it is going to be a long haul.
A guy in my fleet wanted that ship and just opened 200 boxes. No ship. When I told him he could have just sold 100 keys and had enough EC to buy it, he said he probably won't be playing for a while. Not saying he did anything "wrong", but it pays to ask people for advice before spending large amounts of money.
Lots of people drop hundreds on some pop culture statue or sci fi ships to sit on their desk and never actually be "played" with, just looked at. If someone spends $400 on a virtual ship they actually get to play with for a few years is that really a worse investment than spending it on a "real" ship that just sits there?
I mean if you have the bread to spare and throw away, Kudos, but some folks need to really focus on their gaming priority, lol. The only upside I see from the expenditure, you are going to acquire a whole lot of lobi crystals, useless mark boosts, VIP Dilithium claims, and weapon, modules, & trait packs.
That's no better than those people who go to the casinos and spend every last cent hoping to win. With any form of gambling, there is no guarantee you will win the top prize regardless of how much you spend.
and the reason i can do this is i Know how to play the game.
sto,is a very deep and complicated game for casuals and newbies.
theres almost no advice given on the ps4 side of things in zone chat,and the ship/exchange prices are insane.
the old ships are at 500 million,and the new stuff?
billion plus.
id rather just pay real money to the Store in Sto,than to give it to some Gouger on the exchange....
esp considering some of us dont have the time needed to grind in this game.
so us newbies wont be earning enough to buy an exchange ship anytime soon.
that leaves us w the gambling lockboxes.
which,is a waste of time and lots of money for keys on a Gamble.
also,please dont pee on my leg and tell me its raining...some of the rewards for opening boxes has been GREEN items!
not only worthless,but why? am i getting green stuff out of a lockbox i paid to open?
If I happen to get a T6 ship, then great. If not then whatever. However... if for some strange reason I only get a single Lobi Crystal from a Lockbox, then I would be pretty pissed.
I'm tempted to open a few R&D packs for the lobi, but the pack contents are so lacking in value compared to the lock box consolation prizes
Lock boxes and digital gambling games aren't comparable to cards. With card games, your odds actually aren't too bad. With digital and computerized games, the odds are well beyond being in the favor of the player. Lock boxes for STO have a less than a half of a percent of you getting the top prize.
you see,we`ve opened a ton of boxes and gotten pretty much garbage out of them all.
discovery,kelvin,teste whatev.
huge waste of real money with nothing even worth selling on the exchange.
we dont even bother picking them up anymore in battles.
as complete newbs,
we have decided to just play the game and wait for what we want to maybe someday get cheap enough on the exchange.
considering the discovery ship is vanishing fast from the list on ps4,
theres not much chance of us scoring one,much less 2.
current price just under 400 million.
doesnt matter,because just last nite,we discovered we cant dismiss ships in drydock,
After we had bought...more ships.
which means we are totally screwed now.
only way out? pay more real money to open more slots.
even better,i come home all happy from work last nite,
load up the ps4 and grab 50 bucks worth of zen and head to the store,
only to discover the 20 keys/tech upgrade key sale is gone...Again...
in the middle of the 8th anniversary event,weve shut down the sale?
really??.................?
note to whomever is counting the beans.
that zen will sit there till that sale comes back kk?
thanks.
Now that was funny.
STO Forum member since before February 2010.
STO Academy's excellent skill planner here: Link
I actually avoid success entirely. It doesn't get me what I want, and the consequences for failure are slim. -- markhawman