PSA: "PSAs" like this are sent by ship sellers trying to sell more ships.
Yup. Couldn't agree more. I'd rather spend it on the keys or packs than hand over my hard-earned cash on an over-inflated priced item to another player. I have never ever experienced such bad luck to have spent over $300 dollars in an attempt to get 1 ship! This post exemplifies pure glutony!
Those who do not understand probability are doomed to (maybe) get no ship.
If you have a stack of 100 R&D packs, the probability of getting NO SHIP from those 100 packs is 36.6%. It's the odds of rolling a d100 die 100 times without ever rolling a 100, .99 ^ 100. On average, 1 in 3 players who spend $250 opening boxes get NO SHIP. Sell those 100 packs for EC and your odds of buying a ship are 100%. SHIP!
PSA: "PSAs" like this are sent by ship sellers trying to sell more ships.
Yup. Couldn't agree more. I'd rather spend it on the keys or packs than hand over my hard-earned cash on an over-inflated priced item to another player. I have never ever experienced such bad luck to have spent over $300 dollars in an attempt to get 1 ship! This post exemplifies pure glutony!
Those who do not understand probability are doomed to (maybe) get no ship.
If you have a stack of 100 R&D packs, the probability of getting NO SHIP from those 100 packs is 36.6%. It's the odds of rolling a d100 die 100 times without ever rolling a 100, .99 ^ 100. On average, 1 in 3 players who spend $250 opening boxes get NO SHIP. Sell those 100 packs for EC and your odds of buying a ship are 100%. SHIP!
SHIP is better than NO SHIP!
Actually it less than that on paper is about 10% from opening a stack of 100 R&D packs. In reality it actually 1% that people will get a ship from opening a stack of 100 R&D packs.
LOL, I am not making things up I am using numbers from the STO gamepedia page. Here is one example were players had a 0.42% chance of receiving a ship from the Elachi Lock Box.
LOL, I am not making things up I am using numbers from the STO gamepedia page. Here is one example were players had a 0.42% chance of receiving a ship from the Elachi Lock Box.
When you said the odds of getting one from 100 packs were 1% what is it you meant?
You quoted some guy who was exactly correct and then said "actually... " and then a bunch of random numbers.
Nope, what I meant to say is that people had less than a 1% to receive a ship from a lock box.
There is no reason to be nick picking. It doesn't matter what numbers people are using for the lockbox drop rates. What matters is that most of us agree on the lockdrop rate. People have a very slim chance if any of receiving a ship for a lockbox. Just because one person receive a ship from a lockbox doesn't mean the other person will.
People usually come into these threads with all kinds of weird numbers.
The promo packs have better odds than lockboxes do, they also cost 250z each instead of 112 like a key does.
Anyway with 1/100 odds and 100 packs, you have a cumulative probability of 1-[(1-.01)]^100, or 63% of winning one or more ships, and like the guy said above, a ~37% chance of not winning any ships.
So like he said, if 3 people each open 100 packs, you expect two of them to win at least one ship and one of them not to win any.
Or you can scale it up to 300 people each opening 100 packs, you'd expect about 200 of them to win, 100 of them not to win.
Yep, 1/250 is the per-box lock box odds, 1/100 is the R&D pack.
And those saying "your odds do not go up" (Gambler's Fallacy) are half-right. AFTER YOU OPEN 100 packs, your odds for R&D pack 101 are still only 1/100 because (unlike goldfish) probability has no memory. BUT what I listed was the probability for when you have a stack of 100 UNopened packs BEFORE you open them.
Before you open any R&D packs, the odds of getting at least 1 ship from N boxes are 1.0 - (.99 ^ N). You can use the x^y button on your calculator (or Windows calc in scientific view) to get the number for any N.
Buying 20 packs? 1.0 - (.99 ^ 20) = 0.18209 = 18.209% chance of getting at least 1 ship.
PSA: "PSAs" like this are sent by ship sellers trying to sell more ships.
Yup. Couldn't agree more. I'd rather spend it on the keys or packs than hand over my hard-earned cash on an over-inflated priced item to another player. I have never ever experienced such bad luck to have spent over $300 dollars in an attempt to get 1 ship! This post exemplifies pure glutony!
Those who do not understand probability are doomed to (maybe) get no ship.
If you have a stack of 100 R&D packs, the probability of getting NO SHIP from those 100 packs is 36.6%. It's the odds of rolling a d100 die 100 times without ever rolling a 100, .99 ^ 100. On average, 1 in 3 players who spend $250 opening boxes get NO SHIP. Sell those 100 packs for EC and your odds of buying a ship are 100%. SHIP!
SHIP is better than NO SHIP!
Actually it less than that on paper is about 10% from opening a stack of 100 R&D packs. In reality it actually 1% that people will get a ship from opening a stack of 100 R&D packs.
Correct. The rate is approximately 0.01%. And here is the part most people don't understand:
Your chances do NOT go up the more packs you open.
The rate is 0.01% for every INDIVIDUAL pack.
Even if you open 100 packs, your chances of getting a ship remain 0.01% on EACH pack. Your chances don't stack the more packs you open.
I just got done watching a video of one guy opening 1200 lockboxes and only receiving five ships in return. People seem to think they will get a ship by opening up hundreds of lockboxes. That just not true a person can open up 1000 lockboxes and still not get anything in return.
PSA: "PSAs" like this are sent by ship sellers trying to sell more ships.
Yup. Couldn't agree more. I'd rather spend it on the keys or packs than hand over my hard-earned cash on an over-inflated priced item to another player. I have never ever experienced such bad luck to have spent over $300 dollars in an attempt to get 1 ship! This post exemplifies pure glutony!
Those who do not understand probability are doomed to (maybe) get no ship.
If you have a stack of 100 R&D packs, the probability of getting NO SHIP from those 100 packs is 36.6%. It's the odds of rolling a d100 die 100 times without ever rolling a 100, .99 ^ 100. On average, 1 in 3 players who spend $250 opening boxes get NO SHIP. Sell those 100 packs for EC and your odds of buying a ship are 100%. SHIP!
SHIP is better than NO SHIP!
Actually it less than that on paper is about 10% from opening a stack of 100 R&D packs. In reality it actually 1% that people will get a ship from opening a stack of 100 R&D packs.
Correct. The rate is approximately 0.01%. And here is the part most people don't understand:
Your chances do NOT go up the more packs you open.
The rate is 0.01% for every INDIVIDUAL pack.
Even if you open 100 packs, your chances of getting a ship remain 0.01% on EACH pack. Your chances don't stack the more packs you open.
I just got done watching a video of one guy opening 1200 lockboxes and only receiving five ships in return. People seem to think they will get a ship by opening up hundreds of lockboxes. That just not true a person can open up 1000 lockboxes and still not get anything in return.
I had the second one in the first 4 pack i got, and the first one, in the second 4 pack.. i actually buy the packs for the lobi and the materials, i'm the fleet crafter, also i love this promotion, because i have 10 lobi guarranted. So yeah, i know the odds, but is just plain luck.
PSA: "PSAs" like this are sent by ship sellers trying to sell more ships.
Yup. Couldn't agree more. I'd rather spend it on the keys or packs than hand over my hard-earned cash on an over-inflated priced item to another player. I have never ever experienced such bad luck to have spent over $300 dollars in an attempt to get 1 ship! This post exemplifies pure glutony!
Those who do not understand probability are doomed to (maybe) get no ship.
If you have a stack of 100 R&D packs, the probability of getting NO SHIP from those 100 packs is 36.6%. It's the odds of rolling a d100 die 100 times without ever rolling a 100, .99 ^ 100. On average, 1 in 3 players who spend $250 opening boxes get NO SHIP. Sell those 100 packs for EC and your odds of buying a ship are 100%. SHIP!
SHIP is better than NO SHIP!
Actually it less than that on paper is about 10% from opening a stack of 100 R&D packs. In reality it actually 1% that people will get a ship from opening a stack of 100 R&D packs.
Correct. The rate is approximately 0.01%. And here is the part most people don't understand:
Your chances do NOT go up the more packs you open.
The rate is 0.01% for every INDIVIDUAL pack.
Even if you open 100 packs, your chances of getting a ship remain 0.01% on EACH pack. Your chances don't stack the more packs you open.
I just got done watching a video of one guy opening 1200 lockboxes and only receiving five ships in return. People seem to think they will get a ship by opening up hundreds of lockboxes. That just not true a person can open up 1000 lockboxes and still not get anything in return.
Connie is in the R & D packs, 1/100. Lock boxes are 1/250. Lock boxes are not R & D packs.
Connie is in the R & D packs, 1/100. Lock boxes are 1/250. Lock boxes are not R & D packs.
If you look at your odds per Zen they are roughly equal (almost like they planned it that way!)
4 R&Ds for 1000Z . . . . . .1-(99/100)^4 = 3.94%
10 keys for 1125Z . . . . . . 1-(249/250)^10 = 3.93%
Either way, you odds are bad.
You can get a T6 connie WITHOUT GAMBLING for about $300
Somebody had to do the gambling or else there'd be no ship to buy.
There will always be a ship to buy.
People doing it without gambling are selling RnD Packs for EC to buy the ship.
The people buying those packs that were sold for EC are opening them. Some of those packs will yield ships and a good portion of those will end up on the exchange.
Same is true for keys. People say that if everyone sold keys to buy lock box ships there would be no ships, but they forget that the keys that are sold are used for.. that's right.. opening boxes.
It's a self sustaining circle and it has been since this game started.
PSA: "PSAs" like this are sent by ship sellers trying to sell more ships.
Yup. Couldn't agree more. I'd rather spend it on the keys or packs than hand over my hard-earned cash on an over-inflated priced item to another player. I have never ever experienced such bad luck to have spent over $300 dollars in an attempt to get 1 ship! This post exemplifies pure glutony!
Those who do not understand probability are doomed to (maybe) get no ship.
If you have a stack of 100 R&D packs, the probability of getting NO SHIP from those 100 packs is 36.6%. It's the odds of rolling a d100 die 100 times without ever rolling a 100, .99 ^ 100. On average, 1 in 3 players who spend $250 opening boxes get NO SHIP. Sell those 100 packs for EC and your odds of buying a ship are 100%. SHIP!
Yes. But then most of those other 2 in 3 players will get a ship for less than $250. Or even more than one ship. 100 boxes will also get enough lobi to buy another ship or several other lobi products and the actual 100 boxes of materials to sell.
And ultimately none of that changes the fact these "PSAs" are intended to drive up the price of ships on the exchange, by getting more people to buy them instead of trying to win their own.
Thanks, but I already known that Connie is in the R&D Packs. I was just using the guy video as an example for the poor drop rates you get with both the lockboxes and the R&D Packs. While the drop rates for the R&D Packs are a little higher than lockboxes they are not that much better.
Thanks, but I already known that Connie is in the R&D Packs. I was just using the guy video as an example for the poor drop rates you get with both the lockboxes and the R&D Packs. While the drop rates for the R&D Packs are a little higher than lockboxes they are not that much better.
2.5 times as good. I consider that much better. But you're right that the odds are still low at 1/100.
Comments
Those who do not understand probability are doomed to (maybe) get no ship.
If you have a stack of 100 R&D packs, the probability of getting NO SHIP from those 100 packs is 36.6%. It's the odds of rolling a d100 die 100 times without ever rolling a 100, .99 ^ 100. On average, 1 in 3 players who spend $250 opening boxes get NO SHIP. Sell those 100 packs for EC and your odds of buying a ship are 100%. SHIP!
SHIP is better than NO SHIP!
Actually it less than that on paper is about 10% from opening a stack of 100 R&D packs. In reality it actually 1% that people will get a ship from opening a stack of 100 R&D packs.
http://sto.gamepedia.com/Elachi_Lock_Box
Nope, what I meant to say is that people had less than a 1% to receive a ship from a lock box.
There is no reason to be nick picking. It doesn't matter what numbers people are using for the lockbox drop rates. What matters is that most of us agree on the lockdrop rate. People have a very slim chance if any of receiving a ship for a lockbox. Just because one person receive a ship from a lockbox doesn't mean the other person will.
Thanks,i was just looking under "temporal light cruiser"
Yep, 1/250 is the per-box lock box odds, 1/100 is the R&D pack.
And those saying "your odds do not go up" (Gambler's Fallacy) are half-right. AFTER YOU OPEN 100 packs, your odds for R&D pack 101 are still only 1/100 because (unlike goldfish) probability has no memory. BUT what I listed was the probability for when you have a stack of 100 UNopened packs BEFORE you open them.
Before you open any R&D packs, the odds of getting at least 1 ship from N boxes are 1.0 - (.99 ^ N). You can use the x^y button on your calculator (or Windows calc in scientific view) to get the number for any N.
Buying 20 packs? 1.0 - (.99 ^ 20) = 0.18209 = 18.209% chance of getting at least 1 ship.
I just got done watching a video of one guy opening 1200 lockboxes and only receiving five ships in return. People seem to think they will get a ship by opening up hundreds of lockboxes. That just not true a person can open up 1000 lockboxes and still not get anything in return.
I had the second one in the first 4 pack i got, and the first one, in the second 4 pack.. i actually buy the packs for the lobi and the materials, i'm the fleet crafter, also i love this promotion, because i have 10 lobi guarranted. So yeah, i know the odds, but is just plain luck.
Somebody had to do the gambling or else there'd be no ship to buy.
Connie is in the R & D packs, 1/100. Lock boxes are 1/250. Lock boxes are not R & D packs.
If you look at your odds per Zen they are roughly equal (almost like they planned it that way!)
4 R&Ds for 1000Z . . . . . .1-(99/100)^4 = 3.94%
10 keys for 1125Z . . . . . . 1-(249/250)^10 = 3.93%
Either way, you odds are bad.
There will always be a ship to buy.
People doing it without gambling are selling RnD Packs for EC to buy the ship.
The people buying those packs that were sold for EC are opening them. Some of those packs will yield ships and a good portion of those will end up on the exchange.
Same is true for keys. People say that if everyone sold keys to buy lock box ships there would be no ships, but they forget that the keys that are sold are used for.. that's right.. opening boxes.
It's a self sustaining circle and it has been since this game started.
And ultimately none of that changes the fact these "PSAs" are intended to drive up the price of ships on the exchange, by getting more people to buy them instead of trying to win their own.
2.5 times as good. I consider that much better. But you're right that the odds are still low at 1/100.