Come here if you want to be depressed about your chances in STO

mynameisnom · March 2016

Concerning the new promotion packs for the Krenim Dreadnought I opened 100 with no dreadnought

marimariam · March 2016

is this some flame video towards cryptic? too long did not click

dracounguis · March 2016

Only 100? That really proves nothing. There are people who posted here that opened 1-2k and get nothing. But hey, thanks for supporting Cryptic/PWE with your lack of understanding of gambling/statistics!

mynameisnom · March 2016

dracounguis wrote: »

Only 100? That really proves nothing. There are people who posted here that opened 1-2k and get nothing. But hey, thanks for supporting Cryptic/PWE with your lack of understanding of gambling/statistics!

100 is generally a solid average to compare with, but i'm sorry if I didn't have the time to copy or buy 2k for your enjoyment, but by all means do so yourself, please, spend near $3k to not get a ship o_O ( at least according to you)

sandukutupu · March 2016

While I dislike lockboxes in general and the idea, that I have no idea what the odds are in hitting the jackpot. I totally agree that you can never expect to get the jackpot just walking up to a one arm bandit with 100 quarters in your pocket. So get over it, hope you learned your lesson that gambling is for people weak in math skills.

mynameisnom · March 2016

sandukutupu wrote: »

While I dislike lockboxes in general and the idea, that I have no idea what the odds are in hitting the jackpot. I totally agree that you can never expect to get the jackpot just walking up to a one arm bandit with 100 quarters in your pocket. So get over it, hope you learned your lesson that gambling is for people weak in math skills.

Hence tribble ftw. I'm putting this as a warning to those weak in math skills who haven't quite yet comprehended the extent to which chance messes with you

davefenestrator · March 2016

100 is not surprising at all -- assuming the chance per box is 1%, before you start opening the boxes you have a 36.6% chance of getting 0 ships from the 100. With 150 boxes, a 22.1% chance of a shipless night. Even with a pile of 200 boxes there is a 13.4% chance your ship will not come in.

Selling the boxes for EC is the only safe way to get your ship together.

seaofsorrows · March 2016

This is why I want no part in lockboxes.

It's just not worth it.

mirrorchaos · March 2016

mynameisnom wrote: »

dracounguis wrote: »

Only 100? That really proves nothing. There are people who posted here that opened 1-2k and get nothing. But hey, thanks for supporting Cryptic/PWE with your lack of understanding of gambling/statistics!

100 is generally a solid average to compare with, but i'm sorry if I didn't have the time to copy or buy 2k for your enjoyment, but by all means do so yourself, please, spend near $3k to not get a ship o_O ( at least according to you)

in the same way 1000 people in a test are the the average for 60 million people? the minority is not the majority, it never has been. all you can get all out of it is that 1000 people are the result, not 60 million.

its the same here, 100 lockboxs open is 100 lockboxes, not 2000 lockboxes.

jade1280 · March 2016

Out of all the lockboxes and super special promitional item boxes i have paid zen for on the game the only ships i have ever gotten have been mirror ships from older lockboxes. Even after they revamped the newest boxes with "better odds" the results have remained the same but without any mirror ships.

arabatur · March 2016

It's around 1 in 1000 chance to get the good stuff. Cryptic makes a boat load of cash relying on the fact most people don't realise this or just think they are "lucky".

plaztikman64 · March 2016

You need to change your mindset, because as soon as you don't want to have the dreadnought but just the lobi, you'll get it

nikeix · March 2016

I was wondering who opened all the other ones needed to balance out me getting it in 3 tries. I did eventually open 4 more and didn't get a second Annorax, so I'm not hogging ALL the luck

.

My blithe assumption was the drop rate was about half a percent/1-in-200 but who really knows (and isn't under ironclad oaths of secrecy)?

djf021 · March 2016

I don't worry about it too much. The other day I opened 20 boxes, because two of my characters genuinely needed duty officers. Didn't get the annorax, but I didn't expect to. That's how I look at it. It's not really gambling, I simply helped support the game by purchasing some duty officers for two characters who were lacking. If I happen to wait until the promotion is going on, and if I HAPPEN to get lucky, so be it.

taylor1701d · March 2016

I had been told Promo packs had better odds then Lockboxes, @azrael605

From what I've heard,
Lockbox are about 1/200 (.5%)
And promos are 1/100 (1%)
And Ultra Rare Lockbox ships such as the Vonph are supposedly 1/450 (0.22%)

That's what I've heard over the years.

plaztikman64 · March 2016

Or in other words, numbers are irrelevant because the odds are relative for everyone.

angarus1 · March 2016

9 doffboxes for me.

I was opening them for the lobi.

mynameisnom · March 2016

Congrats! And yes plaz, they may be relative but numbers aren't irrelevant. There will be oddities but with consistent numbers it should be somewhat the same. Not my point. My point is, don't expect to get one without likely losing out (unless you also need lobi). With the sample I did selling them would've gotten me two dreadnoughts

taylor1701d · March 2016

Plaz,
Average of boxes is only a reference to the mean success rate, relative to your own personal experience.
Say you've opened 500 doff packs and recieved nothing, you could then say, compared to the median success rate, I'm pretty unlucky..
Or conversely, "I'm super lucky, I got an annorax on the first box".

thegrandnagus1 · March 2016

I have to agree that 100 is too small of a sample size to get any accurate data from. We actually had an amazing example of someone opening 10,000 packs once:

http://www.arcgames.com/en/forums/startrekonline#/discussion/1201350/promo-pack-tribble-test-ten-thousand-10000-packs-opened/p1

http://massivelyop.com/2015/08/18/the-daily-grind-should-mmo-studios-disclose-the-odds-of-winning-lockbox-prizes/

apulse · March 2016

100 boxes = 100 Keys
1125 Zen = 10 Keys, 100 keys = 11250 Zen.
Thanks for supporting the game

alcyoneserene · March 2016

taylor1701d wrote: »

I had been told Promo packs had better odds then Lockboxes, @azrael605

From what I've heard,
Lockbox are about 1/200 (.5%)
And promos are 1/100 (1%)
And Ultra Rare Lockbox ships such as the Vonph are supposedly 1/450 (0.22%)

That's what I've heard over the years.

This seems about right to what people generally report. For lockboxes as an example, the probabilities estimate 1 in 200 will contain the grand prize. It could be much less, or much more than that for any small group of people, but at large samples this would be it assuming the RNG works well enough.

I also know 2 who have opened not more than 5 boxes and were surprised by a lockbox drop, or the ultra rare lockbox. The thing to keep in mind is there's another 198 people who say nothing, because they received nothing.

thegrandnagus1 · March 2016

apulse wrote: »

100 boxes = 100 Keys
1125 Zen = 10 Keys, 100 keys = 11250 Zen.
Thanks for supporting the game

Not necessarily. Many people trade dil for zen and never actually spend their own money. I haven't actually purchased zen in...years?...but I get everything I want. So, maybe the OP bought the zen, maybe they didn't. Either way, don't thank the person spending the zen, thank the person who actually bought it

plaztikman64 · March 2016

taylor1701d wrote: »

Plaz,
Average of boxes is only a reference to the mean success rate, relative to your own personal experience.
Say you've opened 500 doff packs and recieved nothing, you could then say, compared to the median success rate, I'm pretty unlucky..
Or conversely, "I'm super lucky, I got an annorax on the first box".

Thanks for proving my point.

anazonda · March 2016

Welcome to the news of 2011. Today we bring you something that everyone already knows.

Seriously... Regardless if people are consciously or unconsciously aware of this, everyone knows that the chances are extremely small...

apulse · March 2016

thegrandnagus1 wrote: »

apulse wrote: »

100 boxes = 100 Keys
1125 Zen = 10 Keys, 100 keys = 11250 Zen.
Thanks for supporting the game

Not necessarily. Many people trade dil for zen and never actually spend their own money. I haven't actually purchased zen in...years?...but I get everything I want. So, maybe the OP bought the zen, maybe they didn't. Either way, don't thank the person spending the zen, thank the person who actually bought it

I put down my hat for your patience and dedication, I am to lazy to do it the "free" way.. actually, I spend to much zen on this game already, though my Wife have not said anything... yet.

taylor1701d · March 2016

And just what is your point plaz ?
You don't like to know odds ? Not sure what you're getting at...

Lockbox average is just a comparison tool. Not sure what your grudge against it is.

Some like to know odds before making a bet. Its pretty common really. In everything from sports//horse racing to multi million dollar lotteries .

thegrandnagus1 · March 2016

apulse wrote: »

thegrandnagus1 wrote: »

apulse wrote: »

100 boxes = 100 Keys
1125 Zen = 10 Keys, 100 keys = 11250 Zen.
Thanks for supporting the game

Not necessarily. Many people trade dil for zen and never actually spend their own money. I haven't actually purchased zen in...years?...but I get everything I want. So, maybe the OP bought the zen, maybe they didn't. Either way, don't thank the person spending the zen, thank the person who actually bought it

I put down my hat for your patience and dedication, I am to lazy to do it the "free" way.. actually, I spend to much zen on this game already, though my Wife have not said anything... yet.

I can't really accept your compliment, because I don't really put much patience or dedication into it. There are hard ways to earn dil, and then there are easy ways. I'll just say I have an easy way

noroblad · March 2016

What does this even prove? I took my $5 monthly zen, got 2 keys, and won the current box lotto last month. Traded that for the paradox and pocketed 100M. Neither one is representative of reality ... you don't always lose (what the video implies) and you don't often win (I got lucky). The truth is somewhere between those extremes.

They are fun in moderation, if you have excess EC or dil/zen to get a key now and again. Its not economical, but its fun, and like the lottery, if you don't play you can't win.

You might notice that I didnt rush out to spend the 100M on keys after that ... knowing when to stop is a good thing.

thegrandnagus1 · March 2016

noroblad wrote: »

What does this even prove? I took my $5 monthly zen, got 2 keys, and won the current box lotto last month. Traded that for the paradox and pocketed 100M. Neither one is representative of reality ... you don't always lose (what the video implies) and you don't often win (I got lucky). The truth is somewhere between those extremes.

LOL, no. While it *IS* true that "you don't always lose and you don't always win", the actual chances are much *CLOSER* to the "always lose" side. So the "truth" is on one EXTREME end of the spectrum, not really "between" the two.

dracounguis · March 2016

noroblad wrote: »

if you don't play you can't win.

Or... Every dollar you don't spend you 'win' a dollar!

Come here if you want to be depressed about your chances in STO

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