The effect would be lesser since most people dont hit the cap and they also arent big sellers, you can think there would be a 25% decrease on demand but it would not be as great.
A 25% increase on supply would be massive because the exchange is very much run by farms, they would simply put 25% more available that would create the same situation we see right about now after a CC/MI event with people getting 50k per character.
Things arent symmetric, there are people that will not upgrade or buy Rep gear due to what they perceive to be high cost that might if the costs were lowered, this could actually made Dil Sinks to function better in that regard as people might start using instead of going "100k for a set? hell no" and keep hoarding, contributing to the inflation effect.
First, I never said demand would be lowered 25%, merely that it would be lowered. It would be lowered due to people needing 25% less to buying things, and thus more people having their demands met sooner, but that doesn't equate 1:1 with demand. If the good folks at K-Mart find themselves overstocked on lime green leisure suits and reduce their prices 25% in order to try and reduce their stock, that means I need 25% less cash to buy one... but it certainly doesn't mean I want a lime green leisure suit. Like you said, not symmetric.
And yes, things often aren't symmetric with supply/demand, but regardless of which has a greater impact the end result is similar: supply surplus.
Which begs the question which would really be worse...
And since things aren't symmetric, and as you say most people aren't hitting the refining cap, then a 25% increase of that cap does not equate to a 25% increase in supply. In order for supply to increase by 25% you'd need to increase the refining cap by enough that the farmers who earn more than that can account for the majority who do not and make up the difference.
The supply does not consist solely of what farmers put on the exchange, but every bit of dilithium earned in the game.
Moving the refining cap doesn't change the amount of dilithium earned. People earning 3,000 dilithium a day still earn 3,000 dilithium a day, that doesn't increase by 25%. Which means they have 3,000 dilithium they don't have to buy. The purchasing power, in gear, remains stable for that 3,000 dilithium. Prices at vendors don't fluctuate, and prices in the C-Store are (minus sales) equally stable, so demand for dilithium and zen stays the same. People, for the most part, don't need any more dilithium nor zen then they do now.
So most people's needs don't change. Most people's direct earnings don't change. What changes, primarily, is the amount of dilithium on the Exchange since some farmers will see their stock increase. More stock means more dilithium competing for peoples' zen. More stock and more competition tends to lead to lower prices as people want to move their excess stock. So ultimately each point of dilithium becomes worth less zen, and the purchasing power of the non-farmer becomes greater... assuming they have the zen to spend.
So how much would the cap have to increase for a 25% increase in supply? We don't know. We don't know how many people hit the cap. We don't know how many people fall short. According to you however most don't hit the cap, which means the refining cap would need to be increased by significantly more than 25%.
And what of the farmers? How many are really going to see their stock increase by the amount the cap does? How many are just putting in the bare minimum of work per farming toon due to the futility of building up a surplus you can't refine and thus can't spend? How many are logging into their alts until they earn the refinable 8,000 then moving on to other toons? How may of them will put in the extra time on all of those alts to earn that extra 2,000 per toon? And how many who are just hitting the cap on their alts are currently investing as much time as they see fit, and with a raised cap will merely lower the number of toons they grind since they're unwilling to invest 25% more time per farming alt? And how many farming alts never reach the cap due to farmers using multiple KDF toons who merely log in, run assignments to collect contraband, then sell it at 2,000 dilithium a shot? Even with all 20 DOffing assignments full (or 23 if they're blowing dilithium on extra slots), and contraband being turned in, unless they're logging in three times a day and running through all of their characters each time they likely aren't hitting the cap on all of their farming toons, merely picking up quick extra dilithium on alts. What percentage of the farmers are made up of these high ROI farmers who put a lot of dilithium onto the exchange, but rarely if ever hit the refining cap?
We don't have the data, which means we run into baseless speculation here.
And if prices are slashed by 25%?
Well, while some people never hit the cap almost everyone who plays the game spends dilithium. Even toons which are solely devoted to farming at least usually have to spend some of it either on gear or on DOffs in order to run content faster, or crit more, in order to more efficiently farm.
To one degree or another nearly everyone gets effected if the prices are slashed. People need less to achieve the same goals. Those people who earn 3,000 a day? They can now buy more with that 3,000 a day. Without an increase in the refining cap, without more time spent playing/farming, without an increase in rewards from content... without any of that, you've essentially just given them, comparatively, 750 extra purchasing power worth of dilithium each and every day. That is 750 dilithium they don't have to buy, and potentially 750 dilithium they don't need and can sell on the exchange.
Now, will some spend more because they have it? Certainly, but no one can predict how many, and at the same time some won't. And some people, due to being able to achieve their goals 25% faster, will have more dilithium freed up sooner which can go... directly onto the exchange if they so desire. And some miserly fellows won't spend the extra on gear they didn't feel they needed previously just because they have it now.
So essentially everyone who requires dilithium now effectively have more dilithium and as such, need less, barring the few who will reevaluate their end goals. Which means they will be less likely to buy it, and more likely to sell it. Which means more dilithium onto the exchange. Which means, again, on the exchange you've made each point of dilithium worth less zen because of lessened demand, and greater supply and competition, and you've given the non-farmer more dilithium purchasing power, though this time directly instead of simply by altering their ability to buy it on the exchange with zen.
So how many people will achieve their goals faster and start selling as opposed to buying? How many who wouldn't beforehand will buy into higher priced gear because they see it being more of a bargain instead of ignoring it? Will it be more people than would buy into it were the refining cap increased and the market flooded by the farmers, resulting in reduced cost thanks to more easily bought dilithium?
Again, we don't know and don't have the data.
What we do know is that decreasing demand has the same end result as increasing supply. We don't know how much either action will decrease demand nor increase supply nor can we effectively judge how gravely the market equilibrium would be effected.
Please not I did not say it would not had a effect, I said it would have lesser effect ...
... that. And again, unless you have the answers to the above questions (which reasonably you shouldn't) that's speculation.
Can you tell me the percentage of active players who are hitting the refinement cap? Can you tell me the percentage who are farming more than a 25% surplus per toon currently even though they can't use it, or would be willing to invest the time to farm 25% more per toon were the cap raised? Can you tell me how many people would alter their purchasing goals were prices reduced 25%? Can you tell me how many people will or won't reach their goals 25% faster and whether they will or won't sell the extra dilithium on the exchange were prices reduced? Can you tell me what the refining cap would even have to be to result in a 25% increase in supply, taking into account the people who don't hit the cap?
While we know both your suggestion and the one in the topic post have the same pitfall (supply surplus), we'd be guessing at the severity of impact for either one. Worse, we don't have the hard data required to even make an educated guess. Those numbers are sitting somewhere within the metrics that Cryptic has and, unless you have an insider I lack, you and I both don't.
...and the inflation will rise and the cause is because we dont have sinks, we have someone at the development team looking at the exchange and then set the price of what it should cost in real currency.
... that is an unclear sentence. I'm unsure what you're suggesting here because little I can interpret from it makes any sense.
You seem to be suggesting that Cryptic sets the price. Now, I know you don't mean they do this directly since, as you've said, the exchange is run by farms. So it wouldn't make sense to suggest both things, as it can't be directly controlled by both Cryptic and the farming portion of the player base... at least not without some type of shady collusion on everyone's part.
So obviously you're talking about indirectly setting the price by controlling value within the eye of the player. And this is true, since they set the store prices, the in-game reward amounts, the refinement cap, the high and low limit on the exchange, and they release content to both the vendors and the C-Store. Through all of that they control value, but not actually prices. This is all true.
Now, if you're suggesting that things would spiral out of Cryptic's control and further inflation if the exchange cap was moved because it's a control method used... that might have some merit. But at the same time you're suggesting that either wouldn't happen, or happen to a measurably lesser extent, if the in-game prices of dilithium were slashed by a quarter... despite the fact that setting prices is also a control method. If the idea is that things will spiral into chaos if control is removed from Cryptic's hands, well... that happens either way. Both are methods used to control the currencies.
You also seem to be suggesting there aren't any sinks, which I know can't be true because at the same time you're telling us "...there are people that will not upgrade or buy Rep gear due to what they perceive to be high cost...". You plainly acknowledge the sinks, and even suggest that they're too high. Which means you know there are sinks, which means you can't be speaking literally. Thing is, if you're saying there aren't any effective sinks, that has to mean that the sinks are too low to funnel the necessary currency out of the game as is. So the sinks are there, but they don't exist. They are too low and too high. They currently don't funnel enough currency out of the game, but if prices were reduced, and people had to spend less on them, then they'd funnel enough currency out to account for all of the people who are saving 25% due to the slashed prices.
So the things you seem to be flatly saying... don't seem to make much sense. Maybe there's another interpretation I'm missing.
The effect would be lesser since most people dont hit the cap and they also arent big sellers, you can think there would be a 25% decrease on demand but it would not be as great.
A 25% increase on supply would be massive because the exchange is very much run by farms, they would simply put 25% more available that would create the same situation we see right about now after a CC/MI event with people getting 50k per character.
Things arent symmetric, there are people that will not upgrade or buy Rep gear due to what they perceive to be high cost that might if the costs were lowered, this could actually made Dil Sinks to function better in that regard as people might start using instead of going "100k for a set? hell no" and keep hoarding, contributing to the inflation effect.
First, I never said demand would be lowered 25%, merely that it would be lowered. It would be lowered due to people needing 25% less to buying things, and thus more people having their demands met sooner, but that doesn't equate 1:1 with demand. If the good folks at K-Mart find themselves overstocked on lime green leisure suits and reduce their prices 25% in order to try and reduce their stock, that means I need 25% less cash to buy one... but it certainly doesn't mean I want a lime green leisure suit. Like you said, not symmetric.
And yes, things often aren't symmetric with supply/demand, but regardless of which has a greater impact the end result is similar: supply surplus.
Which begs the question which would really be worse...
And since things aren't symmetric, and as you say most people aren't hitting the refining cap, then a 25% increase of that cap does not equate to a 25% increase in supply. In order for supply to increase by 25% you'd need to increase the refining cap by enough that the farmers who earn more than that can account for the majority who do not and make up the difference.
The supply does not consist solely of what farmers put on the exchange, but every bit of dilithium earned in the game.
Moving the refining cap doesn't change the amount of dilithium earned. People earning 3,000 dilithium a day still earn 3,000 dilithium a day, that doesn't increase by 25%. Which means they have 3,000 dilithium they don't have to buy. The purchasing power, in gear, remains stable for that 3,000 dilithium. Prices at vendors don't fluctuate, and prices in the C-Store are (minus sales) equally stable, so demand for dilithium and zen stays the same. People, for the most part, don't need any more dilithium nor zen then they do now.
So most people's needs don't change. Most people's direct earnings don't change. What changes, primarily, is the amount of dilithium on the Exchange since some farmers will see their stock increase. More stock means more dilithium competing for peoples' zen. More stock and more competition tends to lead to lower prices as people want to move their excess stock. So ultimately each point of dilithium becomes worth less zen, and the purchasing power of the non-farmer becomes greater... assuming they have the zen to spend.
So how much would the cap have to increase for a 25% increase in supply? We don't know. We don't know how many people hit the cap. We don't know how many people fall short. According to you however most don't hit the cap, which means the refining cap would need to be increased by significantly more than 25%.
And what of the farmers? How many are really going to see their stock increase by the amount the cap does? How many are just putting in the bare minimum of work per farming toon due to the futility of building up a surplus you can't refine and thus can't spend? How many are logging into their alts until they earn the refinable 8,000 then moving on to other toons? How may of them will put in the extra time on all of those alts to earn that extra 2,000 per toon? And how many who are just hitting the cap on their alts are currently investing as much time as they see fit, and with a raised cap will merely lower the number of toons they grind since they're unwilling to invest 25% more time per farming alt? And how many farming alts never reach the cap due to farmers using multiple KDF toons who merely log in, run assignments to collect contraband, then sell it at 2,000 dilithium a shot? Even with all 20 DOffing assignments full (or 23 if they're blowing dilithium on extra slots), and contraband being turned in, unless they're logging in three times a day and running through all of their characters each time they likely aren't hitting the cap on all of their farming toons, merely picking up quick extra dilithium on alts. What percentage of the farmers are made up of these high ROI farmers who put a lot of dilithium onto the exchange, but rarely if ever hit the refining cap?
We don't have the data, which means we run into baseless speculation here.
And if prices are slashed by 25%?
Well, while some people never hit the cap almost everyone who plays the game spends dilithium. Even toons which are solely devoted to farming at least usually have to spend some of it either on gear or on DOffs in order to run content faster, or crit more, in order to more efficiently farm.
To one degree or another nearly everyone gets effected if the prices are slashed. People need less to achieve the same goals. Those people who earn 3,000 a day? They can now buy more with that 3,000 a day. Without an increase in the refining cap, without more time spent playing/farming, without an increase in rewards from content... without any of that, you've essentially just given them, comparatively, 750 extra purchasing power worth of dilithium each and every day. That is 750 dilithium they don't have to buy, and potentially 750 dilithium they don't need and can sell on the exchange.
Now, will some spend more because they have it? Certainly, but no one can predict how many, and at the same time some won't. And some people, due to being able to achieve their goals 25% faster, will have more dilithium freed up sooner which can go... directly onto the exchange if they so desire. And some miserly fellows won't spend the extra on gear they didn't feel they needed previously just because they have it now.
So essentially everyone who requires dilithium now effectively have more dilithium and as such, need less, barring the few who will reevaluate their end goals. Which means they will be less likely to buy it, and more likely to sell it. Which means more dilithium onto the exchange. Which means, again, on the exchange you've made each point of dilithium worth less zen because of lessened demand, and greater supply and competition, and you've given the non-farmer more dilithium purchasing power, though this time directly instead of simply by altering their ability to buy it on the exchange with zen.
So how many people will achieve their goals faster and start selling as opposed to buying? How many who wouldn't beforehand will buy into higher priced gear because they see it being more of a bargain instead of ignoring it? Will it be more people than would buy into it were the refining cap increased and the market flooded by the farmers, resulting in reduced cost thanks to more easily bought dilithium?
Again, we don't know and don't have the data.
What we do know is that decreasing demand has the same end result as increasing supply. We don't know how much either action will decrease demand nor increase supply nor can we effectively judge how gravely the market equilibrium would be effected.
Please not I did not say it would not had a effect, I said it would have lesser effect ...
... that. And again, unless you have the answers to the above questions (which reasonably you shouldn't) that's speculation.
Can you tell me the percentage of active players who are hitting the refinement cap? Can you tell me the percentage who are farming more than a 25% surplus per toon currently even though they can't use it, or would be willing to invest the time to farm 25% more per toon were the cap raised? Can you tell me how many people would alter their purchasing goals were prices reduced 25%? Can you tell me how many people will or won't reach their goals 25% faster and whether they will or won't sell the extra dilithium on the exchange were prices reduced? Can you tell me what the refining cap would even have to be to result in a 25% increase in supply, taking into account the people who don't hit the cap?
While we know both your suggestion and the one in the topic post have the same pitfall (supply surplus), we'd be guessing at the severity of impact for either one. Worse, we don't have the hard data required to even make an educated guess. Those numbers are sitting somewhere within the metrics that Cryptic has and, unless you have an insider I lack, you and I both don't.
...and the inflation will rise and the cause is because we dont have sinks, we have someone at the development team looking at the exchange and then set the price of what it should cost in real currency.
... that is an unclear sentence. I'm unsure what you're suggesting here because little I can interpret from it makes any sense.
You seem to be suggesting that Cryptic sets the price. Now, I know you don't mean they do this directly since, as you've said, the exchange is run by farms. So it wouldn't make sense to suggest both things, as it can't be directly controlled by both Cryptic and the farming portion of the player base... at least not without some type of shady collusion on everyone's part.
So obviously you're talking about indirectly setting the price by controlling value within the eye of the player. And this is true, since they set the store prices, the in-game reward amounts, the refinement cap, the high and low limit on the exchange, and they release content to both the vendors and the C-Store. Through all of that they control value, but not actually prices. This is all true.
Now, if you're suggesting that things would spiral out of Cryptic's control and further inflation if the exchange cap was moved because it's a control method used... that might have some merit. But at the same time you're suggesting that either wouldn't happen, or happen to a measurably lesser extent, if the in-game prices of dilithium were slashed by a quarter... despite the fact that setting prices is also a control method. If the idea is that things will spiral into chaos if control is removed from Cryptic's hands, well... that happens either way. Both are methods used to control the currencies.
You also seem to be suggesting there aren't any sinks, which I know can't be true because at the same time you're telling us "...there are people that will not upgrade or buy Rep gear due to what they perceive to be high cost...". You plainly acknowledge the sinks, and even suggest that they're too high. Which means you know there are sinks, which means you can't be speaking literally. Thing is, if you're saying there aren't any effective sinks, that has to mean that the sinks are too low to funnel the necessary currency out of the game as is. So the sinks are there, but they don't exist. They are too low and too high. They currently don't funnel enough currency out of the game, but if prices were reduced, and people had to spend less on them, then they'd funnel enough currency out to account for all of the people who are saving 25% due to the slashed prices.
So the things you seem to be flatly saying... don't seem to make much sense. Maybe there's another interpretation I'm missing.
Yup. This is the stuff a lot of people seem to fear trying to intuitively understand and accept as the reality of the situation, and instead make public declarations about how they opt-out of the dilithium exchange and spout all manner of tin-foil about it. I'm not sure why, exactly, it seems pretty cut-and-dried.
It should take a long time and be hard to get the best gear in the game. It's called play2win.
That's the crux of it, isn't it?
People want to be "finished" sinking their dilithiums sooner rather than later, and don't want to accept there is no actual finish line unless they stop spending dilithiums on fleet stuff, upgrades, and other sinks. Given how hostile people sometimes get when they're advised to stop spending their dilithiums, if they don't like the sinks, it makes it very difficult to have a rational conversation about the matter.
It should take a long time and be hard to get the best gear in the game. It's called play2win.
That's the crux of it, isn't it?
People want to be "finished" sinking their dilithiums sooner rather than later, and don't want to accept there is no actual finish line unless they stop spending dilithiums on fleet stuff, upgrades, and other sinks. Given how hostile people sometimes get when they're advised to stop spending their dilithiums, if they don't like the sinks, it makes it very difficult to have a rational conversation about the matter.
MMORPGs in general aren't the kind of games where you're ever "finished." You play them until you get bored or the game gets cancelled, whichever comes first. To (try to) prevent players from getting bored, developers constantly add new things to do and items to get and unless you're a very dedicated grinder or pay a lot of real money, they will likely do so faster than you can do or get them.
The proper advice for people who can't accept that is to find a different kind of game to play.
Yes, it does seem expensive to upgrade kit in STO.
Here is how I have changed my view so as to stop all the frustration involved in the Upgrade System, and now I finally think I can go ahead and be happy with it.
1) Dilithium is hard to come by! If this is a problem for you, learn how to do it the most efficient way possible. I use multi KDF toons, Marauding and Contra Doff missions, takes less than a minute per toon, Colonist, less than a minute per toon, and Handing in Contra and Colonist!
Handing in 1hr mark rewards.
Done properly without taking ages, this nets me plenty of Dilithium for little time.
2000 ( contra) + 2380 (1x7hour mark reward) + 500 (colonist) = 4880 x as many kdf toons you want.
I manage this with 6 kdf and 3 fed toons (who are supplied contra from the KDF), so literally 15 minutes of play I clear 43920 refined dilithium each day I log in, then spend rest of time earning more If I want, very easy to get 8000 cap on 9 toons in 1.30 hours, thats 72000 dilithium per day! On a proper gaming day.
2) I do not care about epic, at all!, If I get an epic, well I either look at it hard, or sell it, I prefer to sell it, normally pays for Upgrade tech so I do not need to farm.
The secret here, make MKII, upgrade with 1 Upgrade tech, if it does not go UR, dump on exchange and start again.
Unless it has an ACC on it, I now do not care, I usually go with CRTDx2 and am happy with whatever comes after that. Once UR I upgrade to MKXIV.
Honestly, in 1 week, A toon is upgraded to UR MKXIV, its not hard, takes 1.45 hours of logging between toons to do this with 9 toons, its really not hard
People need to get with the picture instead of complaining, thats what I did, changed the way I saw this, Learnt to play rewardingly, and got on with it.
There, no need to go learn all on your own, follow above and bingo you too can upgrade as much as I do
Yeah, spending time and effort on the elusive Gold is what makes a lot of this over the top. But, 'To each his Dulcinea.' Some observations and thoughts about the Upgrade System.
They thankfully added a confirmation for the early end to Crafting Projects and removed wait time on Upgrades, but we could use a costless 'Cancel Project' button.
Tech Points needed to 'Mark' up get to exorbitant levels at higher Mks. Reign that in somewhat.
The Tech Points provided by Superior Tech Upgrades should probably be doubled to around 25K.
More and additional opportunities to drop Accelerators in-game.
The increase of Tech Point cost for Mark up at higher Quality Level. Bring that down somewhat.
Reputation gear over-priced in Tech Point cost. Bring it in line with Crafted.
Expensive Lobi Space Set Gear is Rare only, should be made Very Rare like they did with the Lobi Ground Weapons.
Reset of Quality Percentage chance on Mark up. Don't.
At Mk XIV as you progress through and complete the Tech Point bar that is an automatic Quality Level increase. So regardless of how items increase in Quality below Mk XIV, once you are max level the Tech Points move you to a Quality Level increase instead. So Mk XIV Rare next 'Level' is Mk XIV Very Rare, then Ultra, then Epic. Still costs quite a bit of Dilithium but not to the tune of Starbase Level increases.
To those people constantly whining about needing new sinks to dump Dilithium into. Stop whining, don't spend it, stop going out of your way in collecting it.
'But to be logical is not to be right', and 'nothing' on God's earth could ever 'make it' right!'
Judge Dan Haywood
'As l speak now, the words are forming in my head.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
Comments
First, I never said demand would be lowered 25%, merely that it would be lowered. It would be lowered due to people needing 25% less to buying things, and thus more people having their demands met sooner, but that doesn't equate 1:1 with demand. If the good folks at K-Mart find themselves overstocked on lime green leisure suits and reduce their prices 25% in order to try and reduce their stock, that means I need 25% less cash to buy one... but it certainly doesn't mean I want a lime green leisure suit. Like you said, not symmetric.
And yes, things often aren't symmetric with supply/demand, but regardless of which has a greater impact the end result is similar: supply surplus.
Which begs the question which would really be worse...
And since things aren't symmetric, and as you say most people aren't hitting the refining cap, then a 25% increase of that cap does not equate to a 25% increase in supply. In order for supply to increase by 25% you'd need to increase the refining cap by enough that the farmers who earn more than that can account for the majority who do not and make up the difference.
The supply does not consist solely of what farmers put on the exchange, but every bit of dilithium earned in the game.
Moving the refining cap doesn't change the amount of dilithium earned. People earning 3,000 dilithium a day still earn 3,000 dilithium a day, that doesn't increase by 25%. Which means they have 3,000 dilithium they don't have to buy. The purchasing power, in gear, remains stable for that 3,000 dilithium. Prices at vendors don't fluctuate, and prices in the C-Store are (minus sales) equally stable, so demand for dilithium and zen stays the same. People, for the most part, don't need any more dilithium nor zen then they do now.
So most people's needs don't change. Most people's direct earnings don't change. What changes, primarily, is the amount of dilithium on the Exchange since some farmers will see their stock increase. More stock means more dilithium competing for peoples' zen. More stock and more competition tends to lead to lower prices as people want to move their excess stock. So ultimately each point of dilithium becomes worth less zen, and the purchasing power of the non-farmer becomes greater... assuming they have the zen to spend.
So how much would the cap have to increase for a 25% increase in supply? We don't know. We don't know how many people hit the cap. We don't know how many people fall short. According to you however most don't hit the cap, which means the refining cap would need to be increased by significantly more than 25%.
And what of the farmers? How many are really going to see their stock increase by the amount the cap does? How many are just putting in the bare minimum of work per farming toon due to the futility of building up a surplus you can't refine and thus can't spend? How many are logging into their alts until they earn the refinable 8,000 then moving on to other toons? How may of them will put in the extra time on all of those alts to earn that extra 2,000 per toon? And how many who are just hitting the cap on their alts are currently investing as much time as they see fit, and with a raised cap will merely lower the number of toons they grind since they're unwilling to invest 25% more time per farming alt? And how many farming alts never reach the cap due to farmers using multiple KDF toons who merely log in, run assignments to collect contraband, then sell it at 2,000 dilithium a shot? Even with all 20 DOffing assignments full (or 23 if they're blowing dilithium on extra slots), and contraband being turned in, unless they're logging in three times a day and running through all of their characters each time they likely aren't hitting the cap on all of their farming toons, merely picking up quick extra dilithium on alts. What percentage of the farmers are made up of these high ROI farmers who put a lot of dilithium onto the exchange, but rarely if ever hit the refining cap?
We don't have the data, which means we run into baseless speculation here.
And if prices are slashed by 25%?
Well, while some people never hit the cap almost everyone who plays the game spends dilithium. Even toons which are solely devoted to farming at least usually have to spend some of it either on gear or on DOffs in order to run content faster, or crit more, in order to more efficiently farm.
To one degree or another nearly everyone gets effected if the prices are slashed. People need less to achieve the same goals. Those people who earn 3,000 a day? They can now buy more with that 3,000 a day. Without an increase in the refining cap, without more time spent playing/farming, without an increase in rewards from content... without any of that, you've essentially just given them, comparatively, 750 extra purchasing power worth of dilithium each and every day. That is 750 dilithium they don't have to buy, and potentially 750 dilithium they don't need and can sell on the exchange.
Now, will some spend more because they have it? Certainly, but no one can predict how many, and at the same time some won't. And some people, due to being able to achieve their goals 25% faster, will have more dilithium freed up sooner which can go... directly onto the exchange if they so desire. And some miserly fellows won't spend the extra on gear they didn't feel they needed previously just because they have it now.
So essentially everyone who requires dilithium now effectively have more dilithium and as such, need less, barring the few who will reevaluate their end goals. Which means they will be less likely to buy it, and more likely to sell it. Which means more dilithium onto the exchange. Which means, again, on the exchange you've made each point of dilithium worth less zen because of lessened demand, and greater supply and competition, and you've given the non-farmer more dilithium purchasing power, though this time directly instead of simply by altering their ability to buy it on the exchange with zen.
So how many people will achieve their goals faster and start selling as opposed to buying? How many who wouldn't beforehand will buy into higher priced gear because they see it being more of a bargain instead of ignoring it? Will it be more people than would buy into it were the refining cap increased and the market flooded by the farmers, resulting in reduced cost thanks to more easily bought dilithium?
Again, we don't know and don't have the data.
What we do know is that decreasing demand has the same end result as increasing supply. We don't know how much either action will decrease demand nor increase supply nor can we effectively judge how gravely the market equilibrium would be effected.
Which brings us to...
... that. And again, unless you have the answers to the above questions (which reasonably you shouldn't) that's speculation.
Can you tell me the percentage of active players who are hitting the refinement cap? Can you tell me the percentage who are farming more than a 25% surplus per toon currently even though they can't use it, or would be willing to invest the time to farm 25% more per toon were the cap raised? Can you tell me how many people would alter their purchasing goals were prices reduced 25%? Can you tell me how many people will or won't reach their goals 25% faster and whether they will or won't sell the extra dilithium on the exchange were prices reduced? Can you tell me what the refining cap would even have to be to result in a 25% increase in supply, taking into account the people who don't hit the cap?
While we know both your suggestion and the one in the topic post have the same pitfall (supply surplus), we'd be guessing at the severity of impact for either one. Worse, we don't have the hard data required to even make an educated guess. Those numbers are sitting somewhere within the metrics that Cryptic has and, unless you have an insider I lack, you and I both don't.
Now...
... that is an unclear sentence. I'm unsure what you're suggesting here because little I can interpret from it makes any sense.
You seem to be suggesting that Cryptic sets the price. Now, I know you don't mean they do this directly since, as you've said, the exchange is run by farms. So it wouldn't make sense to suggest both things, as it can't be directly controlled by both Cryptic and the farming portion of the player base... at least not without some type of shady collusion on everyone's part.
So obviously you're talking about indirectly setting the price by controlling value within the eye of the player. And this is true, since they set the store prices, the in-game reward amounts, the refinement cap, the high and low limit on the exchange, and they release content to both the vendors and the C-Store. Through all of that they control value, but not actually prices. This is all true.
Now, if you're suggesting that things would spiral out of Cryptic's control and further inflation if the exchange cap was moved because it's a control method used... that might have some merit. But at the same time you're suggesting that either wouldn't happen, or happen to a measurably lesser extent, if the in-game prices of dilithium were slashed by a quarter... despite the fact that setting prices is also a control method. If the idea is that things will spiral into chaos if control is removed from Cryptic's hands, well... that happens either way. Both are methods used to control the currencies.
You also seem to be suggesting there aren't any sinks, which I know can't be true because at the same time you're telling us "...there are people that will not upgrade or buy Rep gear due to what they perceive to be high cost...". You plainly acknowledge the sinks, and even suggest that they're too high. Which means you know there are sinks, which means you can't be speaking literally. Thing is, if you're saying there aren't any effective sinks, that has to mean that the sinks are too low to funnel the necessary currency out of the game as is. So the sinks are there, but they don't exist. They are too low and too high. They currently don't funnel enough currency out of the game, but if prices were reduced, and people had to spend less on them, then they'd funnel enough currency out to account for all of the people who are saving 25% due to the slashed prices.
So the things you seem to be flatly saying... don't seem to make much sense. Maybe there's another interpretation I'm missing.
Yup. This is the stuff a lot of people seem to fear trying to intuitively understand and accept as the reality of the situation, and instead make public declarations about how they opt-out of the dilithium exchange and spout all manner of tin-foil about it. I'm not sure why, exactly, it seems pretty cut-and-dried.
People want to be "finished" sinking their dilithiums sooner rather than later, and don't want to accept there is no actual finish line unless they stop spending dilithiums on fleet stuff, upgrades, and other sinks. Given how hostile people sometimes get when they're advised to stop spending their dilithiums, if they don't like the sinks, it makes it very difficult to have a rational conversation about the matter.
MMORPGs in general aren't the kind of games where you're ever "finished." You play them until you get bored or the game gets cancelled, whichever comes first. To (try to) prevent players from getting bored, developers constantly add new things to do and items to get and unless you're a very dedicated grinder or pay a lot of real money, they will likely do so faster than you can do or get them.
The proper advice for people who can't accept that is to find a different kind of game to play.
Here is how I have changed my view so as to stop all the frustration involved in the Upgrade System, and now I finally think I can go ahead and be happy with it.
1) Dilithium is hard to come by! If this is a problem for you, learn how to do it the most efficient way possible. I use multi KDF toons, Marauding and Contra Doff missions, takes less than a minute per toon, Colonist, less than a minute per toon, and Handing in Contra and Colonist!
Handing in 1hr mark rewards.
Done properly without taking ages, this nets me plenty of Dilithium for little time.
2000 ( contra) + 2380 (1x7hour mark reward) + 500 (colonist) = 4880 x as many kdf toons you want.
I manage this with 6 kdf and 3 fed toons (who are supplied contra from the KDF), so literally 15 minutes of play I clear 43920 refined dilithium each day I log in, then spend rest of time earning more If I want, very easy to get 8000 cap on 9 toons in 1.30 hours, thats 72000 dilithium per day! On a proper gaming day.
2) I do not care about epic, at all!, If I get an epic, well I either look at it hard, or sell it, I prefer to sell it, normally pays for Upgrade tech so I do not need to farm.
The secret here, make MKII, upgrade with 1 Upgrade tech, if it does not go UR, dump on exchange and start again.
Unless it has an ACC on it, I now do not care, I usually go with CRTDx2 and am happy with whatever comes after that. Once UR I upgrade to MKXIV.
Honestly, in 1 week, A toon is upgraded to UR MKXIV, its not hard, takes 1.45 hours of logging between toons to do this with 9 toons, its really not hard
People need to get with the picture instead of complaining, thats what I did, changed the way I saw this, Learnt to play rewardingly, and got on with it.
There, no need to go learn all on your own, follow above and bingo you too can upgrade as much as I do
They thankfully added a confirmation
for the early end to Crafting Projects and removed wait time on Upgrades, but we could use a costless 'Cancel Project' button.
Tech Points needed to 'Mark' up get to exorbitant levels at higher Mks. Reign that in somewhat.
The Tech Points provided by Superior Tech Upgrades should probably be doubled to around 25K.
More and additional opportunities to drop Accelerators in-game.
The increase of Tech Point cost for Mark up at higher Quality Level. Bring that down somewhat.
Reputation gear over-priced in Tech Point cost. Bring it in line with Crafted.
Expensive Lobi Space Set Gear is Rare only, should be made Very Rare like they did with the Lobi Ground Weapons.
Reset of Quality Percentage chance on Mark up. Don't.
At Mk XIV as you progress through and complete the Tech Point bar that is an automatic Quality Level increase. So regardless of how items increase in Quality below Mk XIV, once you are max level the Tech Points move you to a Quality Level increase instead. So Mk XIV Rare next 'Level' is Mk XIV Very Rare, then Ultra, then Epic. Still costs quite a bit of Dilithium but not to the tune of Starbase Level increases.
To those people constantly whining about needing new sinks to dump Dilithium into. Stop whining, don't spend it, stop going out of your way in collecting it.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
Mmmmm.....good anology!
Praetor of the -RTS- Romulan Tal Shiar fleet!