My level 56 admiral is suddenly failing a lot of Doff assignments. Before today, I would maybe get one or two failures a week. Today, I got 3 in the first hour or so, and they were assignments that had a blue or green (or both) doff assigned to them...you know, like those treat a bone fracture or confiscate contraband ones. Maybe it's just an unlucky roll, but it's something I noticed. Anyone else seeing similar increased rates of doff failures?
It just doesn't make sense. Failures have exploded and I'm not talking about sending white doffs on missions. Even with min. green doffs I get almost 25 % failures from a batch of 18 missions and it's on ALL chars.
Yeah, sorry but the OP is right.. something is up.
I had all 4 of my characters fail the 'Confiscate Contraband' mission and probably at least 20-30% of my DoFF missions overall failed. That's MUCH higher then normal, especially for my main who has all Blue or better DoFFs.
I'm going to see if it continues, but I think something is definitely up. The fail rate of Duty Officer Missions is much higher since the patch.
Yeah, sorry but the OP is right.. something is up.
I had all 4 of my characters fail the 'Confiscate Contraband' mission and probably at least 20-30% of my DoFF missions overall failed. That's MUCH higher then normal, especially for my main who has all Blue or better DoFFs.
I'm going to see if it continues, but I think something is definitely up. The fail rate of Duty Officer Missions is much higher since the patch.
Have to agree here, something's not quite right, I usually never fail confiscate missions which I make sure I do every time one is available on 19 characters, yet last night I failed almost every single one.
It just doesn't make sense. Failures have exploded and I'm not talking about sending white doffs on missions. Even with min. green doffs I get almost 25 % failures from a batch of 18 missions and it's on ALL chars.
Something is completely off here!
I never worry about selecting specific doffs for missions I set the option for enable first officer recommendations and just go with whatever pops up, it speeds up the possess tremendously and I don't see any difference in fail/success crit rates as the next guy, more often or not I only experience one or two fails and seem to get my fair share of crit success.
as far as I can see the fail/success crit difference in going with FO recommendations and taking the extra time to select your own doffs is so small its vastly outweighed by the time you save in starting the missions.
When I think about everything we've been through together,
maybe it's not the destination that matters, maybe it's the journey,
and if that journey takes a little longer,
so we can do something we all believe in,
I can't think of any place I'd rather be or any people I'd rather be with.
I wondered what had happened to all the failed DOFF assignments...
The vast majority of my DOFF crew, 300+ and growing are Very Rare. I have a smattering of Rare Security Officers, but try to keep them off of the assignments. Also have a handful of Ultra Rare and one or two Epic DOFFs. Keeps the failures to a minimum.
Have to agree here, something's not quite right, I usually never fail confiscate missions which I make sure I do every time one is available on 19 characters, yet last night I failed almost every single one.
Pretty interesting how that confiscate mission close to never failed inspite its quite bad odds even with purple doffs. Maybe they fixed a bit more than listed...
My 3 characters had a normal fail rate yesterday at least.
It just doesn't make sense. Failures have exploded and I'm not talking about sending white doffs on missions. Even with min. green doffs I get almost 25 % failures from a batch of 18 missions and it's on ALL chars.
Something is completely off here!
I noticed this as well. It's not even just assignments which are considered "high risk " or are rare but very routine assignments are failing ( think the 30 minute doctor-department assignments ) . And this is a recent nerf , it wasn't the case a few weeks ago .So this is in addition to the "xp-rebalance " thing which we debated .
I don't think that's it. I have a "full rack" of purple doffs so all my missions are run with them. The purple guys are noticably weaker, only slightly, but it's noticeable. It seemed to happen around the time of the map change. I assumed it is because they want us to buy ultra-rare doffs from future lockboxes and bundles.
I have not yet noticed any particular increase in doff failure rates. With that said, I have a pretty robust stable of doffs (you can browse the crew in the link in my sig) that crits a lot and rarely fails most assignments, and they would be pretty resistant to any subtle change.
One thing I have noticed over the long term is that the RNG in STO has a tendency to be, for lack of a better term, streaky. I do sometimes notice that ridiculously improbable failures often come in groups, or are more common at one time than another.
Fleet Admiral L'Yern - Screenshot and doffing addict
Eclipse Class Intel Cruiser U.S.S. Dioscuria NX-91121-A - Interactive Crew Roster
I have not yet noticed any particular increase in doff failure rates. With that said, I have a pretty robust stable of doffs (you can browse the crew in the link in my sig) that crits a lot and rarely fails most assignments, and they would be pretty resistant to any subtle change.
One thing I have noticed over the long term is that the RNG in STO has a tendency to be, for lack of a better term, streaky. I do sometimes notice that ridiculously improbable failures often come in groups, or are more common at one time than another.
this ... when you do have failures on routine assignments they come in "groups " ,i.e. : it's a whole bunch of them .There's zero logic to it though, I have had it happen on purple ,green ,white doffs , in short : of any variety .Its seems to be completely random .
I'm aware of this fallacy. It is most relevant when dealing with small sample sizes of truly random outcomes. This phenomenon is precisely why "true" random number generation is generally undesirable in game development--it's more important to ensure that a player perceives the results as random than that they conform to an expected Poisson distribution.
Getting four or five outcomes in a row that each have (e.g.) a % chance of occurring is statistically inevitable with true randomness, but from a player's perspective it is a design defect.
Fleet Admiral L'Yern - Screenshot and doffing addict
Eclipse Class Intel Cruiser U.S.S. Dioscuria NX-91121-A - Interactive Crew Roster
I'm aware of this fallacy. It is most relevant when dealing with small sample sizes of truly random outcomes. This phenomenon is precisely why "true" random number generation is generally undesirable in game development--it's more important to ensure that a player perceives the results as random than that they conform to an expected Poisson distribution.
Getting four or five outcomes in a row that each have (e.g.) a % chance of occurring is statistically inevitable with true randomness, but from a player's perspective it is a design defect.
Interesting read. I had not realized perceptions were SO far off base in so many people. But then, I have been familiar with statistics for many years so I guess my perceptions are not the norm across groups that did not take the classes I did. That said, I would think that education in these areas would help people to understand. Not everyone went to a high school that offered Stats as a full-fledged course or needed it for their college degree. But I am sure a lot of people would get it very quickly if shown.
Christian Gaming Community Fleets--Faith, Fun, and Fellowship! See the website and PM for more. :-) Proudly F2P.Signature image by gulberat. Avatar image by balsavor.deviantart.com.
I'm aware of this fallacy. It is most relevant when dealing with small sample sizes of truly random outcomes. This phenomenon is precisely why "true" random number generation is generally undesirable in game development--it's more important to ensure that a player perceives the results as random than that they conform to an expected Poisson distribution.
Getting four or five outcomes in a row that each have (e.g.) a % chance of occurring is statistically inevitable with true randomness, but from a player's perspective it is a design defect.
What you are describing is correct - when people see clusters they tend to see a pattern where none exists because they are looking at a small group. They think random but what they really want to see is uniformly distributed.
What you are describing is correct - when people see clusters they tend to see a pattern where none exists because they are looking at a small group. They think random but what they really want to see is uniformly distributed.
As a wise man once said, "That's the thing with randomness, you never know how random it's going to be."
I have been checking more on my main and have even had missions that have 0% failure rating that are failing for me. An example of one that has failed three consecutive times is the "Participate in an Ambo Jyutso Contest"
I've also been failing Confiscate Contraband missions a lot lately. Unusually so. Purple doffs with 1 or 2 crit traits.
Obviously, not really proof of anything, but I do consider it odd.
0
rattler2Member, Star Trek Online ModeratorPosts: 58,701Community Moderator
edited May 2015
That does sound odd. I think the Random Number Gods are punishing us for something... Who's been crafting multiple [CrtD]x3 AP weapons in a row? *glares at everyone waiting for a hand to go up*
I can't take it anymore! Could everyone just chill out for two seconds before something CRAZY happens again?!
The nut who actually ground out many packs. The resident forum voice of reason (I HAZ FORUM REP! YAY!)
normal text = me speaking as fellow formite colored text = mod mode
I've also been failing Confiscate Contraband missions a lot lately. Unusually so. Purple doffs with 1 or 2 crit traits.
Obviously, not really proof of anything, but I do consider it odd.
Me too, still failing a very high number of Contraband Missions no matter what DoFFs I use.
Part of me is suspecting a stealth nerf here, I hope I'm wrong. I can tell you though, it's not my imagination, I used to fail this mission once or twice a week across 4 characters, now I have about a 50% failure rate overall.
The failure rate of Contraband missions is MUCH higher then it was before the patch.
Comments
Fixing the bug exposed your doffs for the failures they really are
:rolleyes:
Praetor of the -RTS- Romulan Tal Shiar fleet!
Something is completely off here!
I had all 4 of my characters fail the 'Confiscate Contraband' mission and probably at least 20-30% of my DoFF missions overall failed. That's MUCH higher then normal, especially for my main who has all Blue or better DoFFs.
I'm going to see if it continues, but I think something is definitely up. The fail rate of Duty Officer Missions is much higher since the patch.
Have to agree here, something's not quite right, I usually never fail confiscate missions which I make sure I do every time one is available on 19 characters, yet last night I failed almost every single one.
I never worry about selecting specific doffs for missions I set the option for enable first officer recommendations and just go with whatever pops up, it speeds up the possess tremendously and I don't see any difference in fail/success crit rates as the next guy, more often or not I only experience one or two fails and seem to get my fair share of crit success.
as far as I can see the fail/success crit difference in going with FO recommendations and taking the extra time to select your own doffs is so small its vastly outweighed by the time you save in starting the missions.
When I think about everything we've been through together,
maybe it's not the destination that matters, maybe it's the journey,
and if that journey takes a little longer,
so we can do something we all believe in,
I can't think of any place I'd rather be or any people I'd rather be with.
The vast majority of my DOFF crew, 300+ and growing are Very Rare. I have a smattering of Rare Security Officers, but try to keep them off of the assignments. Also have a handful of Ultra Rare and one or two Epic DOFFs. Keeps the failures to a minimum.
Pretty interesting how that confiscate mission close to never failed inspite its quite bad odds even with purple doffs. Maybe they fixed a bit more than listed...
My 3 characters had a normal fail rate yesterday at least.
I noticed this as well. It's not even just assignments which are considered "high risk " or are rare but very routine assignments are failing ( think the 30 minute doctor-department assignments ) . And this is a recent nerf , it wasn't the case a few weeks ago .So this is in addition to the "xp-rebalance " thing which we debated .
I don't think that's it. I have a "full rack" of purple doffs so all my missions are run with them. The purple guys are noticably weaker, only slightly, but it's noticeable. It seemed to happen around the time of the map change. I assumed it is because they want us to buy ultra-rare doffs from future lockboxes and bundles.
and, I suppose that's possible
One thing I have noticed over the long term is that the RNG in STO has a tendency to be, for lack of a better term, streaky. I do sometimes notice that ridiculously improbable failures often come in groups, or are more common at one time than another.
Eclipse Class Intel Cruiser U.S.S. Dioscuria NX-91121-A - Interactive Crew Roster
this ... when you do have failures on routine assignments they come in "groups " ,i.e. : it's a whole bunch of them .There's zero logic to it though, I have had it happen on purple ,green ,white doffs , in short : of any variety .Its seems to be completely random .
Getting four or five outcomes in a row that each have (e.g.) a % chance of occurring is statistically inevitable with true randomness, but from a player's perspective it is a design defect.
Eclipse Class Intel Cruiser U.S.S. Dioscuria NX-91121-A - Interactive Crew Roster
My usual is anything from 0-2 .
This week I remember seeing one toon with about 5-6 injured Doffs .
... if that counts for anything ...
Interesting read. I had not realized perceptions were SO far off base in so many people. But then, I have been familiar with statistics for many years so I guess my perceptions are not the norm across groups that did not take the classes I did. That said, I would think that education in these areas would help people to understand. Not everyone went to a high school that offered Stats as a full-fledged course or needed it for their college degree. But I am sure a lot of people would get it very quickly if shown.
Christian Gaming Community Fleets--Faith, Fun, and Fellowship! See the website and PM for more. :-)
Proudly F2P. Signature image by gulberat. Avatar image by balsavor.deviantart.com.
Yeah, in reality true randomness often results in clustered results. http://www.wired.com/2012/12/what-does-randomness-look-like/
What you are describing is correct - when people see clusters they tend to see a pattern where none exists because they are looking at a small group. They think random but what they really want to see is uniformly distributed.
My character Tsin'xing
So while it's possible that there is some new failure-bug, I suspect 90% of this feeling is from people suddenly seeing their failures.
Obviously, not really proof of anything, but I do consider it odd.
normal text = me speaking as fellow formite
colored text = mod mode
Me too, still failing a very high number of Contraband Missions no matter what DoFFs I use.
Part of me is suspecting a stealth nerf here, I hope I'm wrong. I can tell you though, it's not my imagination, I used to fail this mission once or twice a week across 4 characters, now I have about a 50% failure rate overall.
The failure rate of Contraband missions is MUCH higher then it was before the patch.
This is with 9% chance of Failure, 2% chance of Disaster.
Same thing on both characters. Again, not really proof of anything -- but very odd considering just how often I succeed with this mission.