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lock box RNG messed up....

mynameisnommynameisnom Member Posts: 639 Arc User
edited May 2014 in The Academy
Just finished opening my 182nd undine lock box... and no ship. What. The. Hell.
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stoutes wrote: »
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The boss being a gigantic Winter Epohh Researcher. As you lay waste to the Epohh Horde, she can occasionally cry out things like, "Didn't you want an Epohh friend?"
Post edited by mynameisnom on
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Comments

  • lebtronlebtron Member Posts: 296 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    Statisticly there is 1 ship in 200 boxes... you did not even open 200 boxes and even after that it is not guaranteed...

    Still I am not sure if the RNG might be messed up... if I see those guys getting 4 ships in less than 10 seconds... or me opening 1200 boxes without a ship, a fleet mate with 3000+ boxes without a ship... and on the other side a fleet mate, getting a ship every 50 boxes... We are already giving him boxes and keys to get ships. I cannot remember the last time somebody was disappointed that way...
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • cbrjwrrcbrjwrr Member Posts: 2,782 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    Unfortunately, that is just the way probability works. 182 boxes to not get a ship is as messed up as 18 boxes to get a ship; you are gambling your money (or someone else's money for that matter) and you should treat lockboxes as such.

    FYI - Tribble testing done by others with thousands of tribble keys/boxes indicates the odds are 1 in 200-250 to get a ship, so statistically speaking, you cant actually complain yet.
  • mustrumridcully0mustrumridcully0 Member Posts: 12,963 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    cbrjwrr wrote: »
    Unfortunately, that is just the way probability works. 182 boxes to not get a ship is as messed up as 18 boxes to get a ship; you are gambling your money (or someone else's money for that matter) and you should treat lockboxes as such.

    FYI - Tribble testing done by others with thousands of tribble keys/boxes indicates the odds are 1 in 200-250 to get a ship, so statistically speaking, you cant actually complain yet.

    And even after 5,000 tries, he can't, because there are no guarentees. Just probabilties, and improbable things happen, too.
    Star Trek Online Advancement: You start with lowbie gear, you end with Lobi gear.
  • decroniadecronia Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    mustrumridcully0 wrote: »
    And even after 5,000 tries, he can't, because there are no guarentees. Just probabilties, and improbable things happen, too.

    Exactly. The percentage chance of getting the ship is for each individual opening. There is no cumulative effect for opening more boxes. Some people get the ship after only opening one or two boxes and some never get it.

    The RNG is not messed up it is working as intended.
  • ussboleynussboleyn Member Posts: 598 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    Last I checked keys where about 2.5mil Ec

    You could of sold your 182 key and made 455mil Ec

    The Nicor sells for around 200-250mil Ec
    ≡/\≡
  • mightybobcncmightybobcnc Member Posts: 3,354 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    ussboleyn wrote: »
    Last I checked keys where about 2.5mil Ec

    You could of sold your 182 key and made 455mil Ec

    The Nicor sells for around 200-250mil Ec

    It's hovering around 180 and somebody put one up for 169 earlier. Op could have bought 2 and a half Nicors. This is what happens when you gamble.
    Joined January 2009
    Finger wrote:
    Nitpicking is a time-honored tradition of science fiction. Asking your readers not to worry about the "little things" is like asking a dog not to sniff at people's crotches. If there's something that appears to violate natural laws, then you can expect someone's going to point it out. That's just the way things are.
  • smeeinn1tsmeeinn1t Member Posts: 618 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    Every time we get a new idiot box the same complaints.


    LOOK IT'S REALLY SIMPLE, YOU PAY FOR AND RECEIVE THE BOX CONTENTS. THE OPENING OF THE BOX ALSO GIVES YOU ONE FREE ENTRY INTO THE SHIP LOTTERY, WHICH LIKE ALL LOTTERIES IS A RANDOM CHANCE. I DON'T CARE IF YOU OPEN 1 BOX OR 1000 BOXES THE ODDS OF THIS GAMBLE ARE RE-ROLLED EACH AND EVERY TIME YOU OPEN A BOX.

    SO IF YOU DON'T WANT THE LOBI AND OTHER CONTENTS DON'T OPEN BOXES! BUY THE BOAT OFF THE EXCHANGE.
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    "A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects." — Lazarus Long --->Get the Forums Enhancement Extension!
  • mustrumridcully0mustrumridcully0 Member Posts: 12,963 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    smeeinn1t wrote: »
    SO IF YOU DON'T WANT THE LOBI AND OTHER CONTENTS DON'T OPEN BOXES! BUY THE BOAT OFF THE EXCHANGE.
    But if everyone did that, we wouldn't have any ships on the Exchange.


    Keep trying, people with disposable income, keep trying!
    Star Trek Online Advancement: You start with lowbie gear, you end with Lobi gear.
  • somebobsomebob Member Posts: 556 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    mustrumridcully0 wrote: »
    Keep trying, people with disposable income, keep trying!

    Exactly! Cryptic thanks you!
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  • hyefatherhyefather Member Posts: 1,286 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    I also agree, sometlhings just not right. I don't know what it is exactly but it just feels messed up. I opened 100 tal shiar boxes and didn't get any ship. I opened 50 undine boxes and got 2 nicors and a few mirror ship. I would have been happy to have opened up 75 tal shiar boxes and got 1 ship and 75 undine and got 1 ship. Its sinister in its ways. I wish cryptic would tell us what the exact odds are. ppl knowing there odds. miglht actually increase lockbox sales. If i knew that buying 75 boxes was garanteed to give me a ship I may buy 20 boxes and try to win. If i don't have a clue I might just buy 10 and cross my fingers. Also the game should keep up with how many of what type of box you open. But anyways. it does feel like something is off. But i dont' know what it is.
  • dabelgravedabelgrave Member Posts: 979 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    There is nothing wrong with the RNG. The chance of getting the grand prize ship is an estimated 0.5%. This is the same chance on EVERY lockbox you open; the chance does not get better as you open more. You might get lucky several times in a row, or you might go a very long time without the results you desire. As I tell folks in my fleet, STO is all about quantity over quality. The more you do something, the more chances you have of getting lucky.

    All my lockbox results: http://bit.ly/STOLockboxResults
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  • decroniadecronia Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    hyefather wrote: »
    I also agree, sometlhings just not right. I don't know what it is exactly but it just feels messed up. I opened 100 tal shiar boxes and didn't get any ship. I opened 50 undine boxes and got 2 nicors and a few mirror ship. I would have been happy to have opened up 75 tal shiar boxes and got 1 ship and 75 undine and got 1 ship. Its sinister in its ways. I wish cryptic would tell us what the exact odds are. ppl knowing there odds. miglht actually increase lockbox sales. If i knew that buying 75 boxes was garanteed to give me a ship I may buy 20 boxes and try to win. If i don't have a clue I might just buy 10 and cross my fingers. Also the game should keep up with how many of what type of box you open. But anyways. it does feel like something is off. But i dont' know what it is.

    It still wouldn't work the way you think it will if they released the odds. The odds are per box there is no cumulative build up.

    Let's say they said it was a 1% chance of getting the ship it does not mean you will get it after opening 100 boxes. It means that there is a 1% chance on each box, and so a 99% chance of not getting it.

    I opened two gold Cardy boxes and on my second one I got the Galor, others opened a lot more and never saw the ship.

    Nothing is off, it is working as intended. Therefore basically your crossing fingers comment is appropriate no matter how many you open.
  • cbrjwrrcbrjwrr Member Posts: 2,782 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    hyefather wrote: »
    I also agree, sometlhings just not right. I don't know what it is exactly but it just feels messed up. I opened 100 tal shiar boxes and didn't get any ship. I opened 50 undine boxes and got 2 nicors and a few mirror ship. I would have been happy to have opened up 75 tal shiar boxes and got 1 ship and 75 undine and got 1 ship. Its sinister in its ways. I wish cryptic would tell us what the exact odds are. ppl knowing there odds. miglht actually increase lockbox sales. If i knew that buying 75 boxes was garanteed to give me a ship I may buy 20 boxes and try to win. If i don't have a clue I might just buy 10 and cross my fingers. Also the game should keep up with how many of what type of box you open. But anyways. it does feel like something is off. But i dont' know what it is.

    Odds are roughly 1 in 200 to 1 in 250, so you are well above average for winning ships.

    Fact is, like the OP, you haven't opened anywhere near enough boxes to be able to complain about the RNG - 15000 lockboxes and you might have a point, but 150 isn't enough.
  • decroniadecronia Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    cbrjwrr wrote: »
    Odds are roughly 1 in 200 to 1 in 250, so you are well above average for winning ships.

    Fact is, like the OP, you haven't opened anywhere near enough boxes to be able to complain about the RNG - 15000 lockboxes and you might have a point, but 150 isn't enough.

    Nope they wouldn't. It's per box, each one is treated as a separate entity. You could open 100,000 and not get the ship, and there would still not be a point saying something is off.
  • frtoasterfrtoaster Member Posts: 3,352 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    hyefather wrote: »
    I also agree, sometlhings just not right. I don't know what it is exactly but it just feels messed up. I opened 100 tal shiar boxes and didn't get any ship. I opened 50 undine boxes and got 2 nicors and a few mirror ship. I would have been happy to have opened up 75 tal shiar boxes and got 1 ship and 75 undine and got 1 ship. Its sinister in its ways. I wish cryptic would tell us what the exact odds are. ppl knowing there odds. miglht actually increase lockbox sales. If i knew that buying 75 boxes was garanteed to give me a ship I may buy 20 boxes and try to win. If i don't have a clue I might just buy 10 and cross my fingers. Also the game should keep up with how many of what type of box you open. But anyways. it does feel like something is off. But i dont' know what it is.

    I also think Cryptic should tell us the odds in the interest of fair business practice. But if they did, master key sales would likely decline, because the odds of winning a ship are so low.
    Waiting for a programmer ...
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  • cbrjwrrcbrjwrr Member Posts: 2,782 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    decronia wrote: »
    Nope they wouldn't. It's per box, each one is treated as a separate entity. You could open 100,000 and not get the ship, and there would still not be a point saying something is off.

    TBF, after 100,000 boxes you should have at least one. And yes, I know it is per box, I just cant think of a precise, unambiguous way to put across something so fundamentally obvious, so I leave it at the numbers and if someone is daft enough to go for it it's their money.


    ETA: that said, frtoaster has just given the right way to phrase it.
  • lebtronlebtron Member Posts: 296 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    decronia wrote: »
    Nope they wouldn't. It's per box, each one is treated as a separate entity. You could open 100,000 and not get the ship, and there would still not be a point saying something is off.

    There would be a point. Statistic is the science about great numbers. If you do not get the expected results in a data sample big enough for your odds, you can suspect there is something wrong.

    If you think otherwise, you may even say that every science based on statistic is pointless. Which would make almost all of our science pointless.

    Of course the unlikly is not impossible. But if you do encouter it too often - just as in my last example - you can supect there is something going wrong...
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  • crm14916crm14916 Member Posts: 1,528 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    So, don't mess with the lock boxes! You've already spent $186 of REAL MONEY for absolutely nothing! Now, if you would have purchased keys with that money, stuck the keys on the exchange for 2M EC each, you'd have 372M EC at the moment... That would purchase you 3 (count that... THREE!!!) lock box ships! You could have bought the Undine ship you want for 200M, the Voth Palisade for 120M, and a Tuffli for 52M...

    CM
    "Equipped with his five senses, man explores the universe around him and calls the adventure science." - Edwin Hubble
  • frtoasterfrtoaster Member Posts: 3,352 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    decronia wrote: »
    Nope they wouldn't. It's per box, each one is treated as a separate entity. You could open 100,000 and not get the ship, and there would still not be a point saying something is off.

    If the probability of winning a ship from opening one lockbox is 1/200, then the probability of receiving no ship from opening 100000 lockboxes is so low that my calculator shows it as 0. So yes, it is possible to say that something is off.
    Waiting for a programmer ...
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  • anazondaanazonda Member Posts: 8,399 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    Well IF you had bought 183, you would have gotten your ship... So you really have yourself to blame.

    This is how lock-boxes work... This is what they were designed to do... Make you buy that OOoonnnneee extra key in the hope that you may get the ship...
    Don't look silly... Don't call it the "Z-Store/Zen Store"...
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    Let me put the rumors to rest: it's definitely still the C-Store (Cryptic Store) It just takes ZEN.
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  • jeffel82jeffel82 Member Posts: 2,075 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    Anyone concerned about the randomness of the lockboxes should first make sure they thoroughly understand the Gambler's Fallacy.
    if one flips a fair coin 21 times, then the probability of 21 heads is 1 in 2,097,152. However, the probability of flipping a head after having already flipped 20 heads in a row is simply 1⁄2. This is an application of Bayes' theorem.

    This can also be seen without knowing that 20 heads have occurred for certain (without applying of Bayes' theorem). Consider the following two probabilities, assuming a fair coin:
    • probability of 20 heads, then 1 tail = 0.520
    You're right. The work here is very important.
    tacofangs wrote: »
    ...talking to players is like being a mall Santa. Everyone immediately wants to tell you all of the things they want, and you are absolutely powerless to deliver 99% of them.
  • edgecrysgeredgecrysger Member Posts: 2,740 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    mynameisnom wrote: »
    Just finished opening my 182nd undine lock box... and no ship. What. The. Hell.

    SO?? :confused:
  • blindsaviour666blindsaviour666 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    I try to keep my distance away from conspiracy theories but... I have a feeling the scale might be tilted based on how you actually buy the keys you use to open boxes such that only if you buy keys with real money and that you are regularly buying stuff with real money you have a higher chance at getting a ship.

    Worst thing is I know how crazy and stupid that sounds but meh I can vent XD it's just that I have not bought any c-store points ever since dilithium came out and the last bit of money they got off of me was for a lifetime sub close to 3 years ago and the number of boxes I have opened is well over a thousand since I got my last ship which I think was a D'Kora from a gold box...

    As I said I know the premise sounds stupid since I am sure there are other freeloaders in the game that have not spent a cent on the game and are getting 2-3 ships in ten boxes but it's easier to think that I'm cursed by cryptic than believe my luck is that bad lol

    Still, I do have almost every lockbox ship that came out, at least EC is easy to get :D boxes are just a hobby to spend my EC and dilithium on these days
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  • jeffel82jeffel82 Member Posts: 2,075 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    Hey, it's understandable to be frustrated by not getting the outcome that you wanted...but it's a mistake to expect the outcome you want, and there's really no need to think the game might be rigged.

    If each box you own has (at best) a 1/200 chance of giving you a ship, you should never, ever, expect to get one.
    You're right. The work here is very important.
    tacofangs wrote: »
    ...talking to players is like being a mall Santa. Everyone immediately wants to tell you all of the things they want, and you are absolutely powerless to deliver 99% of them.
  • grouchyotakugrouchyotaku Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    frtoaster wrote: »
    If the probability of winning a ship from opening one lockbox is 1/200, then the probability of receiving no ship from opening 100000 lockboxes is so low that my calculator shows it as 0. So yes, it is possible to say that something is off.

    This only applies only for the chances of not getting one for a block of 100,000 attempts. The odds for each individual attempt remains at 1/200...

    Now the odds of 183 attempts of getting one or more lockbox ships would be 1 - the odds of getting no ships, which would be...

    1 - ( 0.995 ^ 183) = 60.04%

    which isn't bad odds, but still has a nearly 40% chance of failure. So you can just blame dumb luck in this particular case...
  • nyxadrillnyxadrill Member Posts: 1,242 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    Oh good grief, not another one of these threads?

    I'll just say this..."The house always wins..."

    Nuff said :rolleyes:
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  • jeffel82jeffel82 Member Posts: 2,075 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    grouchyotaku wrote: »
    This only applies only for the chances of not getting one for a block of 100,000 attempts. The odds for each individual attempt remains at 1/200...

    Now the odds of 183 attempts of getting one or more lockbox ships would be 1 - the odds of getting no ships, which would be...

    1 - ( 0.995 ^ 183) = 60.04%

    which isn't bad odds, but still has a nearly 40% chance of failure. So you can just blame dumb luck in this particular case...

    The odds of each individual attempt never, ever change. The "dice" have no memory. They don't care what you've done before. What you've done before cannot alter what's going to happen next.
    You're right. The work here is very important.
    tacofangs wrote: »
    ...talking to players is like being a mall Santa. Everyone immediately wants to tell you all of the things they want, and you are absolutely powerless to deliver 99% of them.
  • grouchyotakugrouchyotaku Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    jeffel82 wrote: »
    The odds of each individual attempt never, ever change. The "dice" have no memory. They don't care what you've done before. What you've done before cannot alter what's going to happen next.

    This is absolutely correct, However, it is also possible to calculate the odds for a block of random events...

    Statistics is one of the most difficult mathematical fields to grasp the major concepts. It does work, as Insurance companies, Casinos, and Scientific field research use it every day. Some of the most important medical breakthroughs (such as the linking of smoking with the occurrence lung cancer) were discovered through statistical analysis...
  • jeffel82jeffel82 Member Posts: 2,075 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    Sure, but enough people have enough trouble distinguishing between the odds of an outcome in a single trial and the odds of an outcome occurring somewhere within a set of trials without someone coming in and throwing 60% figures around all willy-nilly. :)
    You're right. The work here is very important.
    tacofangs wrote: »
    ...talking to players is like being a mall Santa. Everyone immediately wants to tell you all of the things they want, and you are absolutely powerless to deliver 99% of them.
  • jaguarskxjaguarskx Member Posts: 5,945 Arc User
    edited May 2014
    blindsaviour666 wrote: »

    Worst thing is I know how crazy and stupid that sounds but meh I can vent XD it's just that I have not bought any c-store points ever since dilithium came out and the last bit of money they got off of me was for a lifetime sub close to 3 years ago and the number of boxes I have opened is well over a thousand since I got my last ship which I think was a D'Kora from a gold box...

    So a flip side question...

    Other than Lobi, what "junk" do you consider useful... if any?
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