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What affects the Economy.
jumpingjs
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I don't know much about the Economy, hence why I am asking this question, but what causes change?
Before a MOD thinks this is not STO related, what change would have to occur for the price of Dilithium to go up (or down), or any commodity to go up or down?
Is it to do with its scarcity?
Before a MOD thinks this is not STO related, what change would have to occur for the price of Dilithium to go up (or down), or any commodity to go up or down?
Is it to do with its scarcity?
Hopefully I'll come back from my break; this break is fun; I play intellectual games.
I hope STO get's better ...
I hope STO get's better ...
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Exchange rates change based on how tactfully powerful a new lockbox ship is compared to older similar ships.
Supply and demand for market values. Most people would rather undercut then charge full price
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I guess kinda both ...
@dahminus: Why does it change when x or y (or now z) get a new ship? How would that affect things?
I hope STO get's better ...
Im, not sure how the real world economy affects it, it changes when factions get new ships because the dilithium exchange dilithium to zen ratio goes higher as people convert their dilithium to zen for the new things basically "Oo Shiny!" This makes it more profitable to buy zen and convert to dilithium and harder to farm dilithium to convert to zen. Also when DOFF promos for ships come around people have the same "Oo Shiny" reaction and DOFF packs get more expensive, the dilithium exchange skyrockets and the ships normally awarded through those prices get less expensive as the people looking for the new ship get the normal ship and sell it off.
Sorry for the wall of text
Hope this helps
You had tons of people exchanging dil for Zen. Either to sell fleet modules, buy the avenger or buy fleet modules to use.
New fed ships hit the market the hardest due to most players having a lvl 50 fed
My PvE/PvP hybrid skill tree
When they launched the Andorian, they also launched a doff-pack with the chance to get a jem bug.
It could be me, but it seems that every time Cryptic adds something what could bring the dil-price down, they throw a new doffpack against it to get the prices up high again.
I call it, the Stoutes paradox.
Market Exchange prices go up due to the need for energy credits, which are used to buy resources for the fleetbase, embassy, mine, reputation, and spire holdings.
Dilithium Exchange prices go down due to the need for dilithium, which is used to buy resources, equipment, and ships for/from fleet holdings and reputation holdings.
Cryptic is using a technique of positive and negative reinforcement, so they can control both of the exchanges indirectly. Players set the market and dilithium exchange prices due to Cryptic's indirect influence.
Cryptic blames the fans for setting the prices, but they are the ones who are doing the actual damage.
Its cause and effect.
OK, I've seen stuff like this come up a number of times on the forum, and it reflects a misunderstanding of what the Dilithium Exchange is and how it works. On the exchange, you are trading zen and dilithium with other players. Repeat: Other Players. Cryptic does not put any dilithium or Zen into it. If you swap 130 dilithium for 1 Zen, you are buying that Zen off another player who paid Perfect World for it. That said, Cryptic and Perfect World do not care what the exchange rate is. It has no effect on them. Zero. Nada.
The only connection is that Dilithium Exchange prices may reflect demand for Zen. They also reflect demand for dilithium. It's correct to say that the price reflects demand for Zen relative to demand for dilithium. Demand for Zen may stay flat, but something in game causes demand for dilithium to spike (like introducing the Fleet Starbase in Season 6). This will cause demand for dil to increase, while also reducing its supply. The price to buy Zen will therefore drop, even though the demand for Zen is the same.
In the end, an amount of Zen will be bought from Perfect World equal to the amount of cash shop items the players want to buy. Period. Its exchange rate to Zen is irrelevant to PW. If players want an item, they will either pony up cash or buy it off another player for dil, but that exchange rate is set between the players and of no relevance to PW.
P.D.: Well, i exchange dilithium sometimes to gather about 50 zen or so, that i need to reach the 125 for buying a master key... xD, more than that.. i dont see the point on the dilithium exchanger.
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In the real world global corporations work together to manipulate markets, control prices, and get governments to pass laws favorable to them. The Invisible Hand is attached to a very visible arm and body and only the greatly deluded think otherwise.
In the STO economy it's players with a lot of EC buying things with a lot of EC for that tiny, tiny edge and everyone else's e-peen yelling at them to do the same.
But it basically boils down to supply-and-demand.
As more people want dilithium, whether it be for Fleet projects or Reputation projects, the demand for dilithium goes up. The supply for dilithium is relatively constant (going up only as a result of what is earned in-game and limited to 8000 per day). So with demand going up, then the price of dilithium per zen goes up.
On the flip-side of the same argument--if demand for dilithium is up, then the price of zen with that dilithium goes down.
Or, if people aren't wanting dilithium as much--maybe the fleet projects and reputation projects are getting completed, and more and more people are wanting zen to buy the little extras (ships, costumes, etc.) then the price of zen to dilithium goes up, so it costs more dilithium to buy zen.
Or another scenario--if a group of people bought a bunch of zen (huge amounts) with cash, then put it in the Exchange for dilithium, then the supply of zen would be increased over the demand--thus the price of zen for dilithium would go down.
All is based on supply and demand.
Too bad I was too newb to enjoy low zen prices back then.
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It was explained to me that buying zen by any means was a waste of money as Cryptic releases a certain number of keys and lockbox ships direct to the exchange therefore the dilth economy is irrelevant to game-play.
Really if anything Cryptic should be culling to create demand for Zen but I doubt they troll the exchange. And I sincerely doubt they manipulate the dilth exchange directly. The players themselves are egreedy enough to keep prices through the roof.
One thing I do not like in this game is no one wants to trade. Oh sure trade for "market value" plus this and that... You can't find someone for example who has an extra timeship but REALLY want the big Jemhadar ship and is willing to trade one for one. No it comes down to "market value" so you have to trade the ship plus EC to make it a "fair trade."
Come one people... they're digital images that give you a slight math tweek. In a game played for fun. This "STO Economy" stuff is just a bit over the top, especially when it stops being fun and takes a sharp turn into real-world cut-throat practice. I don't want to discuss "fair market value." That tells me you're out to resell and make a profit rather than open the ship up and play it.
I've seen no evidence that the dilithium exchange is manipulated by the company directly (in the sense of placing or removing bids or offers).
If you mean manipulated in the sense of using it for timing releases, that's possible - you could use certain aspects of the dilithium and EC markets to infer whether people are getting bored with the current lockbox/promotion and thus know when to time promotions to reignite interest. It's surely no mystery that you can increase Zen demand with a key sale or a new shiny in the store.
There is certainly player speculation on the two markets though.
There was no misunderstanding. What do you need to buy doff packs? Zen. Which means the demand of zen will be higher. Which logically allow people to ask more dil for it.
And you don't have to tell me it's people selling to people, I've played this game long enough to know.
I call it, the Stoutes paradox.
You couldnt be more right. Anyone who thinks its still about supply and demand its a bit naive. The dil/zen convertion market is controled by a few players with millions of dil for some time. Thats why it never went down lower then 130ish latelty. Some of these even talk among each other when some1 undercuts becouse they lose their profits:rolleyes:. I remember when it was a bit of free market, the dil/zen ratio was even down to 75.
Same goes with the Exchange, its been driven by players spaculation, "flipers" and mass toon hoarders with contraband mules. Sure there may be small niches where supply and demand works, but not on the good stuff, like lockbox ships and Accx3 weapons or other expensive items.
There are alot of things done behind the curtains and if Cryptic would take actions, things would be much better and fair for the majority of players and would increase Cryptic's profits aswell.
And in real world is allmost the same. Free market and free economy its more of an illusion for the masses. The worlds economy its controled by big players aswell. And i am not talking here about ppl like Bill Gates or others wich do things in the open, but of "thiefs in suits" like Soros.
I call it, the Stoutes paradox.
So Cryptic started cutting the "easy" way of getting free Dil and then introduced the SBs, now that made the Dilithium become "scarce" or al least competed, specially making some of the then perceived as better ships go behind paywall.
You have no idea how economics work... Greed is the heart of an economy; money is it blood.
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You said 80 dil per Zen was bad for Cryptic, that is wrong. They do not care what the rate is, as it's entirely between players. So yes, you misunderstand how the market works. The only thing PW and Cryptic care about is how much Zen is being bought, which is driven by demand for C-Store items. Whether it gets traded to another person for Dil first is irrelevant. Releases of new items to the C-Store are driven largely by planned calendar cycles, and possibly by PW observing weakening demand for Zen. They don't need to use the dil exchange to estimate that, they know exactly how much Zen is being bought.
The only people the dil exchange matters to are the players. The whole thing is just a convenience for us. It allows people with too much time (dil) or too much money (Zen) to get together and swap one for the other. As for Cryptic and PW, they do not care what the exchange rate is. It's their job to make sure dilithium has value in game, so that people will want/need to use their Zen to buy it off other people, because otherwise the whole thing is useless (this was an issue in Season 5). But beyond that the exact exchange rate is of no interest to them. They certainly don't plan content releases around it.
People buy zen to covert it to a certain amount of dilithium. If they need 100k dilithium and the rate is 1:100. They would need 1000 zen or 10$
If the exchange rate was 1:50. They would need to use 2000 zen or 20$.
If the exchange rate was 1:200. They would need to use 500 zen or 5$.
The exchange rate does play a part in how much zen people buy when dilithium is what they want.
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You are right that they probably care a little, only to the extent that the value of dil doesn't completely crash and revert to Season 5 levels since this might discourage F2P people from playing. Within the typical ranges we've seen since Season 6 and the conversion from C-Points to Zen, they have no reason to intervene. All they have to do is keep adding dilithium sinks in game to ensure it has value, and they don't seem to have any problem doing that.
They might do care what the rate is. Why? How does the player get zen besides the exchange? Either by surveys (microtransactions per filled survey or paid sub) or by paying for zen to PWE itself.
Well, for which reasons do you want to get zen?
a) Get stuff
What if you have all the stuff or don't need new things?
b) To get large amounts of refined dil.
Let's speculate how we will behave when we want to buy around 1000 zen.
1:80 = That means I get around 80.000 dil for the $ price i've invested, around 10 days of standard dil grind. Nah, I certainly won't invest money in there if I can make it in 1h per day for 10 days.. I find this rather unprofitable. I would much rather invest those 10 days of grind to zen and keep that zen for when the rate is higher (speculation sounds more realistic at this point).
1:134 (today) = I get around 134.000 dil (54.000 difference, mind you) for the same $ price. Hmmm, way more interesting... I might go and actually buy some zen.
^^ I've tried to write it as simple as possible.
When there's a high demand of dil, it become scarce. This means that getting dil (as a zen seller) can become quite pricy.
When they add a certain much sought after ship in a doff pack, greed gets the upper hand. What would you do if you can get 400 mil EC or higher stats/consoles than the normal P2W?
Well, due to that greed, people want to invest their dil in the zen market, which turn the scarcety the other way round (now zen would become the scarce resource). This allow the zen sellers to set a higher price, until a certain equilibrium is reached (where the zen-buyers don't want to sell more dil per zen).
I call it, the Stoutes paradox.
And... what causes this change? A random number generator on the server? The magical market fairy? No. It's supply and demand. If the dil exchange drops to 80, it means either:
A) Demand for Zen is weak overall, something Cryptic will have seen from Zen sales way before it's reflected on the dil exchange
The exchange price does not cause changes in supply or demand. It is a result of changes in supply and demand.
But believe whatever you want. I once saw an actual economist get into one of these threads, try to explain things, and get nowhere. What hope do I have?
The exchange price is set by a sasquatch on a bicycle.
B is backwards. If the supply of Zen and the demand for both Zen and dilithium are held constant, then when a large supply of Dilithium is made available, the exchange rate goes up.
It's worth noting that the supply and demand of both Zen and dilithium are not in lockstep with each other. (Though neither are they entirely unrelated, and events that change all four can and have occurred simultaneously)
An increase in the demand for Zen (C-store sales, new ships, new lockboxes) will increase the relative strength of Zen compared to Dilithium (so it costs more Dil to get one Zen).
An increase in the supply of Zen (sales on Zen itself, primarily) weakens Zen (less Dil for your Zen).
An increase in demand for dilithium (new fleet holding or reputation with expensive but high-quality gear, generally) strengthens dilithium.
An increase in the supply of dilithium (such as events like the Crystalline Cataclysm event, where one can obtain 50k dil per character by running one mission each a day for a month) weakens dilithium.
If the Dilithium per Zen drops to 80, then it's usually due to some or all of those factors coinciding in Dilithium's favor.