I know this is going to sound really stupid and may be purely circumstantial, so please hold off on the flames. I have been a casual lock box user ever since PWE implemented them. I have tried countless times trying to get the jem'bug with zero luck... and have pretty much given up on it. For that matter I've never received any lockbox ships.
That being said, when PWE release the Dominion set I really wanted the Jem'Hadar Dreadnaught. I had roughly 390 saved up in Lobi from previous lockbox attempts and went ahead and purchased $75 in zen thinking that should be enough for the extra Lobi. That evening I bought several 10-pack key sets sold on the cryptic store, again gunning for enough Lobi for the Jem'Dread purchase. So around 8:30 in the P.M. that evening I opened my first 20 boxes, i.e., zero ships, zero rares, zero rare doff's, just TRIBBLE drops and around 110 in Lobi.
Getting side tracked with family life that evening, i.e., playing Mr Mom with a sick 6 year old... I wasn't able to finish my venture in opening the 50 lock boxes in waiting. Here's where it gets interesting, please bare with me. Around 3:30 in the A.M. that following morning, I had to get up and attend to my sick daughter again. About an hour into playing Mr Mom, finally getting her to go back to sleep and roughly 2 hours before I have to get ready for work. I figured what the hell, take a 5-hour energy, log on and finish my quest to obtain 800 Lobi before going to work. At 4:30 A.M. here is what I got within 20 minutes of opening various lock boxes I have saved up;
- 2x Mirror Universe Advanced Escorts (back to back)
- 1 Mirror Universe Patrol Escort
- 2x Wells Temporal Science Vessels (within 10 minutes of each other)
- 1 Jem Heavy Escort Carrier
- 11x Temporal boxes containing 25 Lobi per box
I was completely freaking out, I never have this type of up luck... ever!!! As stated earlier, I never in the past acquired any lock box ships. The only thing that I can equate is that I opened these lock boxes in "off time" in my region/zone. Again, I don't know if this was the case, or pure and simple ridiculous luck! All I know is the next time I try for another lock box ship, I'm doing it early in the A.M. in my region/zone. Thought I'd share my story.
...and I finally obtained enough Lobi for my original goal, purchasing the Jem'Dread!
Usually I throw them away after they bottom out in sells on the exchange. But I do want a Jem ship. So I been stockpiling them as I get them. Soon as I get my other purchases out of the way. I will start opening them up. Either I get the Heavy Escort or the Dread, I will see how that goes.
USS Casinghead NCC 92047 launched 2350
Fleet Admiral Stowe - Dominion War Vet.
I think I should point out that 50-100 boxes does not a sample make.
the odds are so low that you can't rely on such a small sample size to tell you anything useful. And we do know that the chance is calculated on a per box basis, so opening many many boxes, or opening boxes during peak hours shouldn't make a difference
Same here and I opened about the same amount of boxes with the same return.
I can only say that you should have kept the mining claims. At least you can turn then in for about 4.3k of dilithium. a small consulation but at least something.
I think the chances are all BS. I know someone who opened 5 boxes and got 3 JHC. It sucks.
I would not mind playing the Lockbox Lotto regularly IF they were truly random.
But, I don't think they are from what I've read here.
If you throw a 20 sided die 50 times in a row. It could possibly land on 7 all 20 times. It's not likely, but it's possible.
It's also possible that it will never land on 7, even if you throw it a million times.
Random is just that.
Random. And just because one person rolled one way and another rolled another doesn't mean the die is weighted. It is a good indication that your perception of it is, however.
If you throw a 20 sided die 50 times in a row. It could possibly land on 7 all 20 times. It's not likely, but it's possible.
It's also possible that it will never land on 7, even if you throw it a million times.
Random is just that.
Random. And just because one person rolled one way and another rolled another doesn't mean the die is weighted. It is a good indication that your perception of it is, however.
The Dominion boxes have the mining claim.
There are a lot of claims around and a lot of evidence that supports the theory that the random number generator is not working "truly randomly".
One of the devs commented on the need to go through the number generator's code and ensure it is outputting properly. Chains of identical items shouldn't be common and yet they are.
Hell I saw a guy open 3 wells class ships 3 boxes in a row. If the number generator is operating properly what are the odds of that?
How do you pass items from one of your characters to another? I have a few things I'd like to give to my other characters so I can ditch the one character and start a new one.
I just like to point out you could of sold the keys on the exchange then got the ship off the exchange, and weapons for it.
would of net you at least 100mill
i spend couple days ago about 430 mil. and didnt get ship ... so i buy him from exchange
and couple month ago i open 5 cardassian lock boxes and get 4 galor ship ... a half yr before that i open too many box to get galor and nothin ...
chance is always there .... "un-PWE" will normalize chance for box sometime
There are a lot of claims around and a lot of evidence that supports the theory that the random number generator is not working "truly randomly".
One of the devs commented on the need to go through the number generator's code and ensure it is outputting properly. Chains of identical items shouldn't be common and yet they are.
Hell I saw a guy open 3 wells class ships 3 boxes in a row. If the number generator is operating properly what are the odds of that?
I remember back in the old days, random number have to be "seed" which can be anything, the computer will "randomly" generate a number from that (from a range)
I'm sure coding has gotten a lot more sophisticated and can come pretty close in generating number.
BUT......
since it is "random" then it is a chance a person could get 3 ships in a row, the only way to "break that pattern" is to keep track and only generate a win after x tries (which then it is not as random isn't it?)
I was not planning on adding to this post, but in the interests of fair reporting, I blew another pile of dilithium to get 50 keys to buy the Tachyokinetic Converter.
First box I opened, yup, the Heavy Escort Carrier.
The thing that gets me is...you constantly see "<enter name here> has won a Jem'Hadar escort carrier" constantly on the system messages, with the odds of actually getting one how the heck are so many people getting them...or are they? BUAH HA HA HA HA HA. :rolleyes:
the Mine claims are good have 136
about same on doffs the trick as I found out is move up in fleet the higher you go the better your chances
the lock boxes are tied to fleet advancment system
as for the doffs not stupid they for star base projects
100 Lockboxes, (cost 990,000 Dilithium for the keys, exchanging at 88:1) wanted a Jem?Hadar Heavy Escort Carrier. Didnt get it.
Worthless junk: 76 dilithium claims,
and some other stuff that went straight in the recycler.
Thanks for posting your results.
I don't always open boxes, but when I do:
I like to have an idea of the actual outcomes.
Just curious tho, and this is not the first time I've seen it commented on. Why do people dislike the "Dilithium Claims"?
personally I love them, log on do 5 mins of work and make 3/4 of my daily refine limit.
How do you pass items from one of your characters to another? I have a few things I'd like to give to my other characters so I can ditch the one character and start a new one.
I don't know if new accounts can do PMs, so...
If its white gear... or green, blue and purple and you haven't equipped it... you can just mail it to yourself. If it says "bound to character" you can't mail it. If it says "bound to account" you can't mail it but you can stick it in an account bank if you've bought on.
Dilithium: Put in a bid for 25 dilithium per zen. Cancel offer. Do not withdraw.
EC: Sorry. No. Buy contraband or particle traces and mail those for your new toon to sell.
Just curious tho, and this is not the first time I've seen it commented on. Why do people dislike the "Dilithium Claims"?
personally I love them, log on do 5 mins of work and make 3/4 of my daily refine limit.
Cheers
For me, I dislike the fact that they are bound to character, not account.
As I opened my boxes with my favourite character, she has all the claims, as you point out that is 3/4 of the refining limit, with doff missions nearly filling the rest that does not leave much actual game playing till the 8k limit is reached (usually, for me, 1 elite STF).
This puts me off playing my favourite character as I dont like the idea of building up a mountain of unrefinable dilithium, nor do I feel as much satisfaction winning dilithium on STFs when I know I cant refine it.
I am always happy to get easy dil, it is just with these claims the way they are, it make me play my favourite character less.
the Mine claims are good have 136
about same on doffs the trick as I found out is move up in fleet the higher you go the better your chances
the lock boxes are tied to fleet advancment system
as for the doffs not stupid they for star base projects
It's a psychological trick to get you to spend more money gambling, nothing more.
Comments
That being said, when PWE release the Dominion set I really wanted the Jem'Hadar Dreadnaught. I had roughly 390 saved up in Lobi from previous lockbox attempts and went ahead and purchased $75 in zen thinking that should be enough for the extra Lobi. That evening I bought several 10-pack key sets sold on the cryptic store, again gunning for enough Lobi for the Jem'Dread purchase. So around 8:30 in the P.M. that evening I opened my first 20 boxes, i.e., zero ships, zero rares, zero rare doff's, just TRIBBLE drops and around 110 in Lobi.
Getting side tracked with family life that evening, i.e., playing Mr Mom with a sick 6 year old... I wasn't able to finish my venture in opening the 50 lock boxes in waiting. Here's where it gets interesting, please bare with me. Around 3:30 in the A.M. that following morning, I had to get up and attend to my sick daughter again. About an hour into playing Mr Mom, finally getting her to go back to sleep and roughly 2 hours before I have to get ready for work. I figured what the hell, take a 5-hour energy, log on and finish my quest to obtain 800 Lobi before going to work. At 4:30 A.M. here is what I got within 20 minutes of opening various lock boxes I have saved up;
- 2x Mirror Universe Advanced Escorts (back to back)
- 1 Mirror Universe Patrol Escort
- 2x Wells Temporal Science Vessels (within 10 minutes of each other)
- 1 Jem Heavy Escort Carrier
- 11x Temporal boxes containing 25 Lobi per box
I was completely freaking out, I never have this type of up luck... ever!!! As stated earlier, I never in the past acquired any lock box ships. The only thing that I can equate is that I opened these lock boxes in "off time" in my region/zone. Again, I don't know if this was the case, or pure and simple ridiculous luck! All I know is the next time I try for another lock box ship, I'm doing it early in the A.M. in my region/zone. Thought I'd share my story.
...and I finally obtained enough Lobi for my original goal, purchasing the Jem'Dread!
USS Casinghead NCC 92047 launched 2350
Fleet Admiral Stowe - Dominion War Vet.
the odds are so low that you can't rely on such a small sample size to tell you anything useful. And we do know that the chance is calculated on a per box basis, so opening many many boxes, or opening boxes during peak hours shouldn't make a difference
I can only say that you should have kept the mining claims. At least you can turn then in for about 4.3k of dilithium. a small consulation but at least something.
I think the chances are all BS. I know someone who opened 5 boxes and got 3 JHC. It sucks.
But, I don't think they are from what I've read here.
RIP KDF and PvP 2014-07-17 Season 9.5 - Death by Dev
For ships, yes I will glady purchase if they are the ones I want...but for the boxes. That's a gravity well to stay clear of, by parsecs.
Didn't get the ship incase you were wondering
You could have bought a lifetime membership instead! With a monthly 500 zen stipend...
And which boxes have the mining claims? I need a LOT of dil to get my fleet projects in order...
If you throw a 20 sided die 50 times in a row. It could possibly land on 7 all 20 times. It's not likely, but it's possible.
It's also possible that it will never land on 7, even if you throw it a million times.
Random is just that.
Random. And just because one person rolled one way and another rolled another doesn't mean the die is weighted. It is a good indication that your perception of it is, however.
The Dominion boxes have the mining claim.
500 years in the future and we still look like schmucks when getting our ID photos taken...
There are a lot of claims around and a lot of evidence that supports the theory that the random number generator is not working "truly randomly".
One of the devs commented on the need to go through the number generator's code and ensure it is outputting properly. Chains of identical items shouldn't be common and yet they are.
Hell I saw a guy open 3 wells class ships 3 boxes in a row. If the number generator is operating properly what are the odds of that?
i spend couple days ago about 430 mil. and didnt get ship ... so i buy him from exchange
and couple month ago i open 5 cardassian lock boxes and get 4 galor ship ...
chance is always there .... "un-PWE" will normalize chance for box sometime
not even remotely possible...i give you 30 seconds to figure out why...
time is up
there is no dreadnought carrier in any lockbox...it is only in the lobi store.
I remember back in the old days, random number have to be "seed" which can be anything, the computer will "randomly" generate a number from that (from a range)
I'm sure coding has gotten a lot more sophisticated and can come pretty close in generating number.
BUT......
since it is "random" then it is a chance a person could get 3 ships in a row, the only way to "break that pattern" is to keep track and only generate a win after x tries (which then it is not as random isn't it?)
Please review my campaign and I'll return the favor.
First box I opened, yup, the Heavy Escort Carrier.
What are the chances of that?
about same on doffs the trick as I found out is move up in fleet the higher you go the better your chances
the lock boxes are tied to fleet advancment system
as for the doffs not stupid they for star base projects
I don't always open boxes, but when I do:
I like to have an idea of the actual outcomes.
Just curious tho, and this is not the first time I've seen it commented on. Why do people dislike the "Dilithium Claims"?
personally I love them, log on do 5 mins of work and make 3/4 of my daily refine limit.
Cheers
Hm, opened 20 boxes for lobi. Didnt' want a Jem Hadar Heavy Escort Carrier but got one.
I don't know if new accounts can do PMs, so...
If its white gear... or green, blue and purple and you haven't equipped it... you can just mail it to yourself. If it says "bound to character" you can't mail it. If it says "bound to account" you can't mail it but you can stick it in an account bank if you've bought on.
Dilithium: Put in a bid for 25 dilithium per zen. Cancel offer. Do not withdraw.
EC: Sorry. No. Buy contraband or particle traces and mail those for your new toon to sell.
For me, I dislike the fact that they are bound to character, not account.
As I opened my boxes with my favourite character, she has all the claims, as you point out that is 3/4 of the refining limit, with doff missions nearly filling the rest that does not leave much actual game playing till the 8k limit is reached (usually, for me, 1 elite STF).
This puts me off playing my favourite character as I dont like the idea of building up a mountain of unrefinable dilithium, nor do I feel as much satisfaction winning dilithium on STFs when I know I cant refine it.
I am always happy to get easy dil, it is just with these claims the way they are, it make me play my favourite character less.
It's a psychological trick to get you to spend more money gambling, nothing more.
"Oh, Timmy is winning? Well then i can win too!"