Error (probability bug) in childrens toys missions

roejspinodji · October 2012

The probabilty calculations shown for retrieving a console from the powered alien artefact do not match with the result. Something is pretty badly wrong here....
I have 24 % probability for purple, 51 for blue and 25 for green. So actually around every 4th console should be purple.
However, after trying out around 200 times (to really see, if it is a bug or not) I can say that around 9 % is purple, 44 % blue and 47% green.
Pretty annoying...... :mad:
Please Cryptic get it fixed....

I have reported this error earlier, but unfortunately so far no response, change or anything....

kirisee · October 2012

I've noticed a similar thing with confiscate contraband.....i' not sure but it seems to be rolling the dice backwards......for example, its rolling a set of dice for the failure chance first, then for success, then for a crit. It's almost like it's rolling 3 times instead of just making one roll.

All i know for sure is after Season 6 launched, Doff mission success rates have taken a nosedive for no reason.

criss11 · October 2012

TRIBBLE the crafting consoles,sell the powered artifacts and save the money, you won't fail to get what you need.
I sell those things and i'm happy that i don't fail,waste my time and resources and not ruining my day

New ppl to game might still buy artifacts to try and if the selling will not working anymore TRIBBLE the artifact doff missions, just change your bussiness to another items..very simple

have fun and srry for you.

Similar failure assignment chances to crafting consoles is the temporal assignment from that beacon thingy so be careful with that too.

goltzhar · October 2012

@ OP
The thing about statistics is that you need a LARGE number of tries before you can even begin to see the real stats.

Not 100, not 1000, but maybe 5000 or more..
When you do your crafting the % is what it says. But for your thougt to work, the game has to concider/save/be aware of all of your previous attempts to get a purple, but that is not the case.

When you start the crafting, the game sees it as you would start it for the first time. over and over again. And statistics will show if you take every console made by everyone in the game within a month to be close to what the % says.

There is nothing to say that you don't get 250 green in a row.. (not likely but possible) and then 240 Purple and 510 blue in a row. Very unlikely but still possible.

Bottom line... you need ALOT of crafting to see the real %.

mbp101287 · October 2012

goltzhar wrote: »

@ OP
The thing about statistics is that you need a LARGE number of tries before you can even begin to see the real stats.

Not 100, not 1000, but maybe 5000 or more..
When you do your crafting the % is what it says. But for your thougt to work, the game has to concider/save/be aware of all of your previous attempts to get a purple, but that is not the case.

When you start the crafting, the game sees it as you would start it for the first time. over and over again. And statistics will show if you take every console made by everyone in the game within a month to be close to what the % says.

There is nothing to say that you don't get 250 green in a row.. (not likely but possible) and then 240 Purple and 510 blue in a row. Very unlikely but still possible.

Bottom line... you need ALOT of crafting to see the real %.

No, OP is right. His results should have been alot closer to the stated percentages. 200 or so consoles crafted is definitely a large enough data set to make a conclusion that the percentages aren't correct. And the game would not have any need to remember what you rolled in the past. Either it's a random roll each time and he should be getting closer to 24% purple, or the game artificially generates the "roll" based upon some sort of pre-chosen outcomes; either way, things are not working as advertised.

badname834854 · November 2012

criss11 wrote: »

TRIBBLE the crafting consoles,sell the powered artifacts and save the money, you won't fail to get what you need.
I sell those things and i'm happy that i don't fail,waste my time and resources and not ruining my day
New ppl to game might still buy artifacts to try and if the selling will not working anymore TRIBBLE the artifact doff missions, just change your bussiness to another items..very simple

have fun and srry for you.

Similar failure assignment chances to crafting consoles is the temporal assignment from that beacon thingy so be careful with that too.

I think the big problem comes from the fact that the only consoles worth a **** are TAC cosnoles (with the exception of mine consoles and a handful of ENG consoles)...that's it!

jake81499 · November 2012

The childrens toys console mission seems to have always been bugged. You can run it over and over and over with efficient resolve purple doffs and all you'll recieve are green stealth consoles with an occasional blue stealth module thrown in. And yes, it's pretty sad.

BUT I was going to post something today that I kinda might have discovered and wanted to ask if anyone else had noticed it or if it's even true.

Has anyone noticed a cool down on the Childrens toys console mission which might improve the chances of getting better stuff?

I tried letting it set for a variety of times (2 hours, 4 hours, 24 hours, 48 hours and such)

Doing this I recieved 2 purple Antiproton Mag Regs and a purple Phaser console all in a row. These are the best items I've seen in probably 1000 runs. Then I recieved a couple purple science consoles and a couple purple engineering.

The problem is I don't remember what kind of cooldown time I gave it to get the tac consoles.

I don't really know if there's a cooldown for the good stuff or not but it seemed to work at least for a while.

I have several efficient and several stubborn doffs which I rotate. I've not found a cunning doff that works in the making of consoles yet.

roejspinodji · November 2012

I will try it out with the cooldown times, it may be possible that you are right.
Will post my experience here later....
Thx !

admgreer · November 2012

I am gettin close to the 300 mark in crafting and lost count of the Bio-Function and Stealth Modules I have recieved along with Pre-fire chambers. It seems that the same 4 crappy consoles appear over and over. Every now and then an armor appears. (But never Nutronium) and I have gotten 2 Poloron and 2 Tet consoles but never Disruptor, Phaser or Antiproton. I woulden't mind Blue consoles if they were just something besides crappy Sci consoles over and over. I stopped useing Stubbord doffs and went to Efficent and started getting more Eng consoles than before. Perhaps the Cunning trait is what drops more Tac consoles. The KDF has some Orion ENg doffs with resolve and Cunning. I may start crafting on my Klingon to see if it makes a difference.

jake81499 · November 2012

Would anyone happen to know that names of some Eng doffs with Resolve and Cunning on the Fed side that will actually work with Childrens toys?

I've bought several with resolve and cunning but they never show up on the list of useable doffs for whatever reason.

mbp101287 · November 2012

jake81499 wrote: »

Would anyone happen to know that names of some Eng doffs with Resolve and Cunning on the Fed side that will actually work with Childrens toys?

I've bought several with resolve and cunning but they never show up on the list of useable doffs for whatever reason.

I was stupid and bought 2 kdf doffs because I didn't look closely enough. Make double sure the doffs you're talking about are actually feds.

criss11 · November 2012

mbp101287 wrote: »

I was stupid and bought 2 kdf doffs because I didn't look closely enough. Make double sure the doffs you're talking about are actually feds.

This is because doffs image frames sucks in STO since the game was launched.They should make doffs with a symbol/small icon added for FED or KDF on image' corner or something visible , not making ppl to stare at doff' s background like would see an UFO...once again..amateur devs..

jake81499 wrote: »

Would anyone happen to know that names of some Eng doffs with Resolve and Cunning on the Fed side that will actually work with Childrens toys?

An engineering doff with:
Resolve
Spiritual
Stubborn
Teamwork
Cunning

would be URL="http://www.stowiki.org/Ro_Taban"]Ro Taban[/URL from DS-9 Bundle but it costs 2500 zen to get it from the Special_Requisition_Pack_-_Elite_Duty_Officer_Cadre .Also N'Vek from that pack is engineering but is only Cunning and same quality - blue.
This doff is blue but with 3 traits required is equal with a purple with 2.Be careful not to sell it or exchange it like any doff.Well , resolve is listed as attribute(spec) not required trait but it will be displayed on Recommandations.
The doff is not Unruly to f**** up the chances.

I don't craft consoles, i don't care , i sell the powered artifact when i have the chance but i did some research on wikia for my friends and also because i'm a wikia contributor.;)

Purples i didn't had time to search but you can start with this link http://www.stowiki.org/Specialization:_Fabrication_Engineer/Starfleet , for example Aglet (ferengi) is Stubborn and Cunning.

Ferengi FED doffs and Orion KDF doffs are usually Cunning , the Vulcans Fed are Logical, reptilians (Saurian-FED and Gorn-KDF) are Cold Blooded, Jem'Hadar doffs are Shroud, Klingon KDF doffs are Honorable, Orion KDF doff girls are Seductive ...and so on
So everytime you need Cunning i suggest you to start searching with Ferengi (FED) or Orions (KDF).

Ferra has a purple Engineer with Efficient and Stubborn only ,in Espionage rank 4.

jake81499 · November 2012

I'll try that. I already have Ro Taban. I just never used him because he's blue.

admgreer · November 2012

Industrialist krinda is a Fab Eng Doff and has all the crit traits with resolve but she is bound and only available from the Feregni Privateer Cadra pack. I read somewhare that if you use 5 of her that you can get %27-%51-%22

jake81499 · November 2012

I'm conducting an experament.

So far 5 green and one purple out of 6 tries. I've recieved four green Injectors, a purple Emitter Amp and a green SIF. This is with the odds of 24/52/24, using an assortment of purple doffs, resolve, effecient and stubborn and an assortment of times between runs.

I'd say at this time that the odds are deceptive.

Will keep posting results every few days.

thepantsparty · November 2012

criss11 wrote: »

So everytime you need Cunning i suggest you to start searching with Ferengi (FED) or Orions (KDF).

Ferra has a purple Engineer with Efficient and Stubborn only ,in Espionage rank 4.

While that's a good way to find cunning, Ferengi - outside of the 4 bind on pickup purples from the Ferengi cadres - don't have resolve, making them useless for console fabrication. Similarly, the Ferra doffs were created before resolve existed and also aren't useful for console fabrication.

jake81499 · November 2012

I completed 10 runs so far, I wish I'd kept track of all the others before this. There were hundreds.

Out of ten runs using purple doffs with efficient or stubborn.

6 green, 3 blue and 1 purple.

The advertised result should be 24/52/24. The actual result was 10/30/60. That's 10% chance of a purple, 30% chance of a blue and 60% chance for a green.

The most recieved item was the 4 green injectors.

I'll post the next 10 runs when they're completed.

admgreer · November 2012

You are going to get a lot of pre fire chambers, the Console that boost mine damage, The consoles that increase power levels, Bio function monitors, Stealth modules, Chronoton infusers. and Diburnium alloy. Over and Over and Over again. that is at purple quality. The Energy and other torp booster will drop at Blue sometimes and lots at green. At aprok 250 craftings I have never got an Antiproton or a Nuetronium.

jake81499 · November 2012

admgreer wrote: »

At aprok 250 craftings I have never got an Antiproton or a Nuetronium.

Yep, I'm aware of that. I've done 4 to 6 a day since childrens toys first started after they fixed the first bug. 70% of the winnings (if you can call them that) are green stealth modules and green injectors. The whole thing seems to be weighted towards junk winnings regardless of the posted odds. Out of alll my winnings I've recieved 4 total purple antiprotons, one of which I sold. I would say less than 5% of my winnings have been purple regardless of the odds. I wish I'd kept a written record.

jake81499 · November 2012

Here's another 10 runs of Fabricate Console. Odds, 24/52/24.

Purple 2
Blue 7
Green 1

That's a 20/70/10

A little better. The reward was a little better too, only one Inertial Dampener! It''s still leaning into the Science Console area. 6 Science, 1 Eng, 3 Tac.

jake81499 · November 2012

Here is the 3rd post of 10 results for Childrens toys.

This on is totally odd and it's making me wonder about something..........

Purple, 6
Blue, 2
Green, 2

That's a 60/20/20! :eek:

I've personally never seen so many purples in a row.

Very odd.....

defalus · November 2012

Odds aren't a certainty, 24% chance to get something is also a 76% chance you won't get something.

jake81499 · November 2012

This is 4 of 10.

Results were.............

3 Purple
6 Blue
1 Green.

That's 30/60/10. A little closer to the advertised 24/52/24.

The Product results were.....

4 Tactical
4 Science
2 Engeineering

Next result in 3 or 4 days.

jake81499 · November 2012

This is 5 of 10.

Purple 3
Blue 5
Green 2

That's 30/50/20 on a 24/52/24 for this run.

The winnings were 4 Tac, 4 Eng, and 2 Sci.

5 more runs to go. :cool:

markhawkman · November 2012

Wow, that group was REALLY close to the advertised figures.

I never thought there was an error in the probability, but that pretty much confirms it...

jake81499 · November 2012

Yes it was. I'm still suspicious of things and will complete ten sets. The total of all ten shoul be very close to 24/52/24. I'm using different duty officer sets with each mission. I don't have a cunning but have around 15 others with efficient or stubborn to chose from.

jake81499 · November 2012

Here's the 6th run of 10.

4 Purple, 3 Blue, 3 Green. 40/30/30 on a 24/52/24

The equipment was, 5 Tac, 4 Eng, and 1 Sci.

ungratefuldead88 · November 2012

Every game with any random portion always has lots of threads of people complaining the RNG must be broken because they didn't get the good thing at the statistically likely time. You won't get a purple every four times - you might not get one for twenty, you might get three in a row. The OP had a pretty large sample but it's still well within the realm of possibility he was just a) really unlucky or b) more likely over-remembering the failures. Most of the posts here are well short of anything close to a significant sample to test the RNG on. I've never netted a valuable console (although my rate of purples feels average) and I've never popped a lockbox ship despite many tries but I still feel confident the game isn't out to get me.

recksracer · November 2012

ungratefuldead88 wrote: »

Every game with any random portion always has lots of threads of people complaining the RNG must be broken because they didn't get the good thing at the statistically likely time. You won't get a purple every four times - you might not get one for twenty, you might get three in a row. The OP had a pretty large sample but it's still well within the realm of possibility he was just a) really unlucky or b) more likely over-remembering the failures. Most of the posts here are well short of anything close to a significant sample to test the RNG on. I've never netted a valuable console (although my rate of purples feels average) and I've never popped a lockbox ship despite many tries but I still feel confident the game isn't out to get me.

People don't understand odds or randomness.

jake81499 · November 2012

LOL. In this game, the only way to reliably get something useful if to sell the Powered Artifacts until you have enough EC to buy what you need. That is unless you really like Green TCD Infusers, Stealth Modules and Flow Capaciters. I'm also keeping track of exactly what I recieve, which DOFFs I use and cool down times. There is a deffinate lean to the consoles I mentioned above. When the 10th run is complete I'll work try to work up a list of what I recieved.

Anyhow.

Here is 7 of 10.

0 Purple, 7 Blue, 3 Green

That's 0/70/30 of a 24/52/24 chance.

6 Tac, 1 ENG and 3 Sci.

markhawkman · November 2012

Yeah.... adding up your results for 4/10 to 7/10 shows a strong bias towards tac consoles.
T/S/E
4/4/2
4/2/4
5/1/4
6/3/1

total:
19/10/11

almost 50% tac consoles with about 25% each in eng and sci. Could be sampling error though. it's only 4 data samples.

Error (probability bug) in childrens toys missions

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