Yeah.... adding up your results for 4/10 to 7/10 shows a strong bias towards tac consoles.
The last set was, Green Phaser Relay, Blue Prefire, Green Prefire, Blue Ambiplasma, Blue TCD, Green Variable. All of which are either not sellable except to a vendor or just not worth much. None of which are really useful. Getting something really worth something even in the blue catagory is still somewhat rare.
Here are my results for my last 100 consoles using Resolve Technicians with one crit trait (efficient). The readout predicts a 24%, 51%, 24% ratio for purple:blue:green.
Actual Results: 19%, 59%, 22% (a lot more blues than predicted with quite a bit less purple and about on par with the greens. As far as the quality of purples, they were pretty bad. I only received 3 energy boosting consoles and 1 neutronium.)
Green Ablative Hull Armor
Green Chroniton Flux Regulator
Green Diburnium Hull Plating
Green Emergency Forcefields
Green Field Emitter
Green Inertial Dampeners
Green Inertial Dampeners
Green Injector Assembly
Green Neutronium Alloy
Green Neutronium Alloy
Green Parametallic Hull Plating
Green Phaser Relay
Green Photon Detonation Assembly
Green Polaron Phase Modulator
Green Polaron Phase Modulator
Green Polaron Phase Modulator
Green RCS
Green Sensor Probes
Green SIF Generator
Green Variable Geometry Detonator
Green Warhead Yield Chamber
Green Zero Point Quantum Chamber
Blue Ablative Hull Armor
Blue Ablative Hull Armor
Blue Ablative Hull Armor
Blue Ablative Hull Armor
Blue Ambiplasma Envelope
Blue Ambiplasma Envelope
Blue Ambiplasma Envelope
Blue Ambiplasma Envelope
Blue Antiproton Mag Regulator
Blue Biofunction Monitor
Blue Biofunction Monitor
Blue Disruptor Induction Coil
Blue Electroceramic Hull Plating
Blue Emergency Force Fields
Blue Emitter Array
Blue EPS Flow Regulator
Blue EPS Flow Regulator
Blue EPS Flow Regulator
Blue Field Emitter
Blue Field Generator
Blue Flow Capacitor
Blue Flow Capacitor
Blue Graviton Generator
Blue Graviton Generator
Blue Graviton Generator
Blue Injector Assembly
Blue Monotanium Alloy
Blue Monotanium Alloy
Blue Monotanium Alloy
Blue Monotanium Alloy
Blue Neutronium Alloy
Blue Parametallic Hull Plating
Blue Plasma Distribution Manifold
Blue Plasma Distribution Manifold
Blue Plasma Distribution Manifold
Blue Plasma Infuser
Blue Plasma Infuser
Blue Plasma Infuser
Blue Polaron Phase Modulator
Blue Power Insulator
Blue Prefire Chamber
Blue RCS Accelerator
Blue Sensor Probes
Blue SIF Generator
Blue SIF Generator
Blue Stealth Module
Blue Stealth Module
Blue Stealth Module
Blue Stealth Module
Blue Tetraburnium Hull Armor
Blue Tetraburnium Hull Armor
Blue Tetryon Pulse Generator
Blue Transphasic Compressor
Blue Transphasic Compressor
Blue Transphasic Compressor
Blue Warhead Yield Tactical Chamber
Blue Warhead Yield Tactical Chamber
Blue Zero Point Quantum Chamber
Blue Zero Point Quantum Chamber
No, OP is right. His results should have been alot closer to the stated percentages. 200 or so consoles crafted is definitely a large enough data set to make a conclusion that the percentages aren't correct. And the game would not have any need to remember what you rolled in the past. Either it's a random roll each time and he should be getting closer to 24% purple, or the game artificially generates the "roll" based upon some sort of pre-chosen outcomes; either way, things are not working as advertised.
I don't want to get all Chicken Little here, BUT am I right to assume that if there might be a glitch in the percentages HERE, with this particular case, is it not at least possible, that this "glitch' might affect OTHER rolls that rely on probability as well ?
From what I've seen the distribution of rarity and type of consoles isn't a problem with the percentages given by the assignment but it a much deeper coding issue in the game. The issue is Cryptic's random number generator... these are problems in MMOs since so much is random.
Computers don't do random, they can't, they are logic machines, so a random number is always some variable modified by another variable. The problem becomes when one variable isn't as variable as they think it is, resulting is much more highly predictable results. Very often the time is used as a variable.
I can say from a lot of console missions that I know how to get the same console at the same rarity very often, I haven't found a predictable way to get the valuable ones yet, but with enough data samples it wouldn't be difficult.
Here's the take on 100 results. After adding all this up you'll see that the results came to 25 Green, 52 Blue and 23 Purple. That's close enough to 24/52/24 for me so I'm not going to repeat the test. I also kept tract of the time each segment was started and when it finished as well as which DOFFs were used. There was no noticeable difference in the results of each regardless of cool downs or combinations of officers. The only thing I do see is that the junkier consoles seem to pop up slightly more often but further tests would be needed to prove or disprove that. An example is that I've done hundreds of these and have yet to recieve my 4th Purple AP Mag Rugulator. It's truly is easier and cheaper to sell your powered artifacts on the exchange and save the EC to buy what you need.
2 Green Electroceramic
4 Green Injector Assembly
1 Green SIF Generator
2 Green Sensor Probes
1 Green Chrontiton Flux
1 Green Ablative
3 Green Graviton
2 Green Variable Geometry
1 Green AP Regulator
1 Green Flow Regulator
1 Green Tetraburnium
1 Green Phaser Relay
1 Green Prefire Chamber
1 Green Ambiplasma
2 Green Biofunction
1 Green Particle Generator
25 Green
3 Blue Inertial Dampener
1 Blue Teryon Pulse
3 Blue Particle Generator
2 Blue Stealth Module
2 Blue Sensors Probe
1 Blue Field Generator
1 Blue Disruptor Coil
1 Blue Distribution Manifold
3 Blue TCD
3 Blue Shield Emitter
3 Blue Ambiplasma
1 Blue Zero Point
1 Blue Countermeasures
2 Blue Emitter Array
1 Blue SIF
2 Blue Warhead Yield
1 Blue Diburnium
1 Blue Injector Assembly
2 Blue AP Regulator
1 Blue Parametalic
1 Blue Prefire Chamber
1 Blue Powewr Insulator
1 Blue Chrontiton Flux
1 Blue EPS
1 Blue Neutronium
4 Blue Directed Energy
2 Blue Transphasic
2 Blue Plasma Distr1bution
1 Blue Monotonium
1 Blue Tetraburnium
1 Blue Power Insulator
1 Blue Polaron
52 Blue
Bottom line... is if it says 40% purple... that DOES NOT mean that 4 out of 10 will be purple. To be frank your understanding of probability is lacking.... don't feel bad most people don't understand much beyond the basic concepts.
A basic assumption in probability theory is that each event is independent of all other events. That is, previous draws have no influence on the next draw. So really because you pulled 1000 greens doesn't mean you are anymore likely to land a purple on your next try then; you had on the first of the 1000 greens you pulled. Even if the purple chance was 99% it would be unlikely you would pull 999 out of 1000 purples.
Yes you have a X chacne to land a purple when ever you start the mission... I really don't think there is anything wrong with Cryptics math... a grade 10 high school programing student could program a basic chance roll.
The issue with this thread is 20% DOES not ever = 20 in 100.... that is a possible outcome, however there is more math we could use that would show how small the chances of landing on 20 of 100 would be. lol
To be frank your understanding of probability is lacking.... don't feel bad most people don't understand much beyond the basic concepts.
LOL, My understanding of propability is perfectly fine. Your understanding of why we did this apears to be lacking. This simply shows that the programs is not bugged as most people think in the area of the probability. If I did this a thousand times it's still going to come up to 24/52/24. In all, the only thing I have doubts about is the chance of getting something good, but the results shown indicate that if the program does lean towards the junk it's not much of a lean.
Bottom line... is if it says 40% purple... that DOES NOT mean that 4 out of 10 will be purple. To be frank your understanding of probability is lacking.... don't feel bad most people don't understand much beyond the basic concepts.
A basic assumption in probability theory is that each event is independent of all other events. That is, previous draws have no influence on the next draw. So really because you pulled 1000 greens doesn't mean you are anymore likely to land a purple on your next try then; you had on the first of the 1000 greens you pulled. Even if the purple chance was 99% it would be unlikely you would pull 999 out of 1000 purples.
Yes, it does not mean you will get 40% purple. However, this probability means that chances are you will get an answer close to 40%, if you do multiple attempts. Assuming a binomial distribution (all trials independent, success/failure only), you will get a bell-shaped curve with the highest probability at 40% successes. The curve's spread will be less wide as number of trials increases. So, yes, the probability of getting exactly 40 may be pretty small. However, the chances of getting close to 40% successes is definitely quite high, compared to getting anything else.
Oh yeah, and 99% with 1000 attempts gives 990 successes as mean.
The issue with this thread is 20% DOES not ever = 20 in 100.... that is a possible outcome, however there is more math we could use that would show how small the chances of landing on 20 of 100 would be. lol
Yeah, you'll get a pretty small chance of landing on exactly 20 out of 100. However, what we're doing here is getting values close to 20, which is a perfectly legitimate way of testing the actual probability of success, due to the bell curve shape. Also, despite the probability of landing on 20 being small, the probability of landing on any other number is even smaller.
TL;DR: You've got a few problems with understanding probability yourself.
My only point is, that it seems many people in this thread and in general miss understand probability by a large margin. Its what keeps casinos in business though. Yes as a general average most players that are preforming these missions on a regular basis will most likely end up with numbers in and around the started % chances... seeing people with slightly lower and some with slightly higher is normal....
However if you are the unlucky guy that pulls 90% green... it doesn't mean the system is broken. People often seem to forget that in practice each event is independent of all other events. So yes if you pull 90 greens in a row... that is perfectly possible and does not mean the system is broken in anyway.
My only point is, that it seems many people in this thread and in general miss understand probability by a large margin. Its what keeps casinos in business though. Yes as a general average most players that are preforming these missions on a regular basis will most likely end up with numbers in and around the started % chances... seeing people with slightly lower and some with slightly higher is normal....
However if you are the unlucky guy that pulls 90% green... it doesn't mean the system is broken. People often seem to forget that in practice each event is independent of all other events. So yes if you pull 90 greens in a row... that is perfectly possible and does not mean the system is broken in anyway.
Okay, point taken. Pulling 90 greens in a row is possible. However, such an occurrence tends to be pretty unlikely, which is why this thread exists. It is to check whether the OP was, indeed, that unlucky person, or if the lousy odds were widespread. Based on the tests, most people seem to have found that the stated odds are in effect, and there really isn't a bug.
Okay, point taken. Pulling 90 greens in a row is possible. However, such an occurrence tends to be pretty unlikely, which is why this thread exists. It is to check whether the OP was, indeed, that unlucky person, or if the lousy odds were widespread. Based on the tests, most people seem to have found that the stated odds are in effect, and there really isn't a bug.
Ya fair enough.. I popped 50 mil ec in keys the other day to open some boxes... no ships and 1 or 2 half decent items... a friend opened 5 boxes and pulled 2 ships... what can ya do, in my case certainly not visit any casinos any time soon. lol
Now having said that I do wonder how the system deals with item selection, beyond the simple purple blue green. In my experience if I pull one item I am likely to pull the same item again with in a short amount of time. From talking to people it seems the system selects items a small time frame at a time... I know a few times when I have pulled say a blue doff 2 in a row... in a lot of cases they end up being the same doff.... Same effect seems to happen with lock boxes.... with the Toy missions I know it would be hard to quickly complete multiple missions on alts... still makes me wonder.
The probabilty calculations shown for retrieving a console from the powered alien artefact do not match with the result. Something is pretty badly wrong here....
I have 24 % probability for purple, 51 for blue and 25 for green. So actually around every 4th console should be purple.
However, after trying out around 200 times (to really see, if it is a bug or not) I can say that around 9 % is purple, 44 % blue and 47% green.
Pretty annoying...... :mad:
Please Cryptic get it fixed....
I have reported this error earlier, but unfortunately so far no response, change or anything....
I didn't think it was like that. Take the example of having a 24 almost 25% chance. Say you have a 4 sided die. You could, in theory, NEVER roll a 4, but you would eventually after many many tries. Take for example flipping a coin (there are three outcomes, but let's just say just heads tails) each flip is independent of the last one, 50/50 each and every time.
Any kind of discussion on the odds of any outcome in this game cannot be had unless the people involved have taken a course in statistics.
Short of getting actual results and calculating the outcome you can't really prove it either way. And if your numbers don't come close to the stated odds you can always blame a small sample size (Although this would be very unlikely)
It takes a college 4 months to teach this subject and even then some people don't get it. I doubt a forum post explaining probabilities will be sufficient.
Good work on getting the numbers for everyone Jake.
I have my first set of 24/52/24 doff with essential trait. I just began my first try and got one green, engineering console. My second try, I got a purple tactical disruptor induction coil. Since I have few resources, this will be a slow process. Nonetheless, I will be keeping the 100 tests on an excel file.
Good work on getting the numbers for everyone Jake.
Your welcome, it cost me millions in EC that I could have made by just selling the powered artifacts. I haven't wasted a PA since completing the runs. All now go to the exchange.
The probabilty calculations shown for retrieving a console from the powered alien artefact do not match with the result. Something is pretty badly wrong here....
I have 24 % probability for purple, 51 for blue and 25 for green. So actually around every 4th console should be purple.
However, after trying out around 200 times (to really see, if it is a bug or not) I can say that around 9 % is purple, 44 % blue and 47% green.
Pretty annoying...... :mad:
Please Cryptic get it fixed....
I have reported this error earlier, but unfortunately so far no response, change or anything....
Yep i can confirm.. there are more green and blues than purple....Please fix this
Comments
The last set was, Green Phaser Relay, Blue Prefire, Green Prefire, Blue Ambiplasma, Blue TCD, Green Variable. All of which are either not sellable except to a vendor or just not worth much. None of which are really useful. Getting something really worth something even in the blue catagory is still somewhat rare.
Actual Results: 19%, 59%, 22% (a lot more blues than predicted with quite a bit less purple and about on par with the greens. As far as the quality of purples, they were pretty bad. I only received 3 energy boosting consoles and 1 neutronium.)
Green Ablative Hull Armor
Green Chroniton Flux Regulator
Green Diburnium Hull Plating
Green Emergency Forcefields
Green Field Emitter
Green Inertial Dampeners
Green Inertial Dampeners
Green Injector Assembly
Green Neutronium Alloy
Green Neutronium Alloy
Green Parametallic Hull Plating
Green Phaser Relay
Green Photon Detonation Assembly
Green Polaron Phase Modulator
Green Polaron Phase Modulator
Green Polaron Phase Modulator
Green RCS
Green Sensor Probes
Green SIF Generator
Green Variable Geometry Detonator
Green Warhead Yield Chamber
Green Zero Point Quantum Chamber
Blue Ablative Hull Armor
Blue Ablative Hull Armor
Blue Ablative Hull Armor
Blue Ablative Hull Armor
Blue Ambiplasma Envelope
Blue Ambiplasma Envelope
Blue Ambiplasma Envelope
Blue Ambiplasma Envelope
Blue Antiproton Mag Regulator
Blue Biofunction Monitor
Blue Biofunction Monitor
Blue Disruptor Induction Coil
Blue Electroceramic Hull Plating
Blue Emergency Force Fields
Blue Emitter Array
Blue EPS Flow Regulator
Blue EPS Flow Regulator
Blue EPS Flow Regulator
Blue Field Emitter
Blue Field Generator
Blue Flow Capacitor
Blue Flow Capacitor
Blue Graviton Generator
Blue Graviton Generator
Blue Graviton Generator
Blue Injector Assembly
Blue Monotanium Alloy
Blue Monotanium Alloy
Blue Monotanium Alloy
Blue Monotanium Alloy
Blue Neutronium Alloy
Blue Parametallic Hull Plating
Blue Plasma Distribution Manifold
Blue Plasma Distribution Manifold
Blue Plasma Distribution Manifold
Blue Plasma Infuser
Blue Plasma Infuser
Blue Plasma Infuser
Blue Polaron Phase Modulator
Blue Power Insulator
Blue Prefire Chamber
Blue RCS Accelerator
Blue Sensor Probes
Blue SIF Generator
Blue SIF Generator
Blue Stealth Module
Blue Stealth Module
Blue Stealth Module
Blue Stealth Module
Blue Tetraburnium Hull Armor
Blue Tetraburnium Hull Armor
Blue Tetryon Pulse Generator
Blue Transphasic Compressor
Blue Transphasic Compressor
Blue Transphasic Compressor
Blue Warhead Yield Tactical Chamber
Blue Warhead Yield Tactical Chamber
Blue Zero Point Quantum Chamber
Blue Zero Point Quantum Chamber
Purple Ablative Hull Armor
Purple Diburnium Plating
Purple Directed Energy Distribution Manifold
Purple Disruptor Induction Coil
Purple Electroceramic Hull Plating
Purple Field Emitter
Purple Inertial Dampeners
Purple Injector Assembly
Purple Mag Regulator
Purple Monotanium Alloy
Purple Neutronium Alloy
Purple Particle Generator
Purple Plasma Distribution Manifold
Purple Phaser Relay
Purple SIF Generator
Purple SIF Generator
Purple TCD Subspace Infuser
Purple TCD Subspace Infuser
Purple Variable Geometry Detonator
@DevolvedOne
I don't want to get all Chicken Little here, BUT am I right to assume that if there might be a glitch in the percentages HERE, with this particular case, is it not at least possible, that this "glitch' might affect OTHER rolls that rely on probability as well ?
2 Green, 6 blue and 2 purple.
2 eng, 6 tac and 2 sci.
20/60/20 for both.
2 Purple, 6 Blue, 2 Green
Still 20/60/20 on a 24/52/24, same as the last run.
The take was 5 Eng, 2 Tac, 3 Sci.
Computers don't do random, they can't, they are logic machines, so a random number is always some variable modified by another variable. The problem becomes when one variable isn't as variable as they think it is, resulting is much more highly predictable results. Very often the time is used as a variable.
I can say from a lot of console missions that I know how to get the same console at the same rarity very often, I haven't found a predictable way to get the valuable ones yet, but with enough data samples it wouldn't be difficult.
Completed Starbase, Embassy, Mine, Spire and No Win Scenario
Nothing to do anymore.
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6 Tac, 3 SCi, 1 Eng
1 Purple, 7 Blue, 2 Green
10/70/20 on a 23/52/24.
2 Green Electroceramic
4 Green Injector Assembly
1 Green SIF Generator
2 Green Sensor Probes
1 Green Chrontiton Flux
1 Green Ablative
3 Green Graviton
2 Green Variable Geometry
1 Green AP Regulator
1 Green Flow Regulator
1 Green Tetraburnium
1 Green Phaser Relay
1 Green Prefire Chamber
1 Green Ambiplasma
2 Green Biofunction
1 Green Particle Generator
25 Green
3 Blue Inertial Dampener
1 Blue Teryon Pulse
3 Blue Particle Generator
2 Blue Stealth Module
2 Blue Sensors Probe
1 Blue Field Generator
1 Blue Disruptor Coil
1 Blue Distribution Manifold
3 Blue TCD
3 Blue Shield Emitter
3 Blue Ambiplasma
1 Blue Zero Point
1 Blue Countermeasures
2 Blue Emitter Array
1 Blue SIF
2 Blue Warhead Yield
1 Blue Diburnium
1 Blue Injector Assembly
2 Blue AP Regulator
1 Blue Parametalic
1 Blue Prefire Chamber
1 Blue Powewr Insulator
1 Blue Chrontiton Flux
1 Blue EPS
1 Blue Neutronium
4 Blue Directed Energy
2 Blue Transphasic
2 Blue Plasma Distr1bution
1 Blue Monotonium
1 Blue Tetraburnium
1 Blue Power Insulator
1 Blue Polaron
52 Blue
2 Purple Field Emitter
1 Purple Biofunction Monitor
1 Purple Sensor Probe
2 Purple Electroceramic
1 Purple SIF
2 Purple Albative
3 Purple Parametalic
2 Purple Prefire Chamber
2 Purple Warhead Yield
1 Purple Tetryon Pulse
1 Purple Tetraburnium
1 Purple Monotonium
1 Purple Neutronium
1 Purple Disruptor Coil
1 Purple Graviton
1 Purple Zero Point
23 Purple
A basic assumption in probability theory is that each event is independent of all other events. That is, previous draws have no influence on the next draw. So really because you pulled 1000 greens doesn't mean you are anymore likely to land a purple on your next try then; you had on the first of the 1000 greens you pulled. Even if the purple chance was 99% it would be unlikely you would pull 999 out of 1000 purples.
Yes you have a X chacne to land a purple when ever you start the mission... I really don't think there is anything wrong with Cryptics math... a grade 10 high school programing student could program a basic chance roll.
The issue with this thread is 20% DOES not ever = 20 in 100.... that is a possible outcome, however there is more math we could use that would show how small the chances of landing on 20 of 100 would be. lol
LOL, My understanding of propability is perfectly fine. Your understanding of why we did this apears to be lacking. This simply shows that the programs is not bugged as most people think in the area of the probability. If I did this a thousand times it's still going to come up to 24/52/24. In all, the only thing I have doubts about is the chance of getting something good, but the results shown indicate that if the program does lean towards the junk it's not much of a lean.
Yes, it does not mean you will get 40% purple. However, this probability means that chances are you will get an answer close to 40%, if you do multiple attempts. Assuming a binomial distribution (all trials independent, success/failure only), you will get a bell-shaped curve with the highest probability at 40% successes. The curve's spread will be less wide as number of trials increases. So, yes, the probability of getting exactly 40 may be pretty small. However, the chances of getting close to 40% successes is definitely quite high, compared to getting anything else.
Oh yeah, and 99% with 1000 attempts gives 990 successes as mean.
Yeah, you'll get a pretty small chance of landing on exactly 20 out of 100. However, what we're doing here is getting values close to 20, which is a perfectly legitimate way of testing the actual probability of success, due to the bell curve shape. Also, despite the probability of landing on 20 being small, the probability of landing on any other number is even smaller.
TL;DR: You've got a few problems with understanding probability yourself.
However if you are the unlucky guy that pulls 90% green... it doesn't mean the system is broken. People often seem to forget that in practice each event is independent of all other events. So yes if you pull 90 greens in a row... that is perfectly possible and does not mean the system is broken in anyway.
Okay, point taken.
Ya fair enough.. I popped 50 mil ec in keys the other day to open some boxes... no ships and 1 or 2 half decent items... a friend opened 5 boxes and pulled 2 ships... what can ya do, in my case certainly not visit any casinos any time soon. lol
Now having said that I do wonder how the system deals with item selection, beyond the simple purple blue green. In my experience if I pull one item I am likely to pull the same item again with in a short amount of time. From talking to people it seems the system selects items a small time frame at a time... I know a few times when I have pulled say a blue doff 2 in a row... in a lot of cases they end up being the same doff.... Same effect seems to happen with lock boxes.... with the Toy missions I know it would be hard to quickly complete multiple missions on alts... still makes me wonder.
I guess I'll put in in laymans terms.
The point is not whether 24/52/24 will be 24/52/24, the point is 'Is the game cheating?'
Anotherwords, are the stated 24/52/24 really the odds or is it something else all together?
It would seem that after 100 roles in the test the results came very close to the 24/52/24.
If we did 1000 roles it would probably come to exactly 24/52/24.
I didn't think it was like that. Take the example of having a 24 almost 25% chance. Say you have a 4 sided die. You could, in theory, NEVER roll a 4, but you would eventually after many many tries. Take for example flipping a coin (there are three outcomes, but let's just say just heads tails) each flip is independent of the last one, 50/50 each and every time.
Short of getting actual results and calculating the outcome you can't really prove it either way. And if your numbers don't come close to the stated odds you can always blame a small sample size
It takes a college 4 months to teach this subject and even then some people don't get it. I doubt a forum post explaining probabilities will be sufficient.
Good work on getting the numbers for everyone Jake.
Your welcome, it cost me millions in EC that I could have made by just selling the powered artifacts. I haven't wasted a PA since completing the runs. All now go to the exchange.