For the last couple of months I've had a lot of Admiralty missions fail despite being 100% success chance and all conditions met or exceeded. I also seem to fail at 95 to 99% chance far more regularlry than they should. I understand that a 99% change does have a chance to fail, but this happens far too frequently and the fact that I have nearly a dozen 100% success missions that also fail makes me seriously concerned at the algorithm that is being used, and also if this same algorithm is being used for the lock boxes. This makes me feel very suspicious over the legitimacy of the lock boxes and the formulas being used to calculate success, if even a 100% chance fails on the missions.
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The lockboxes are not rigged. Still would be nice to know the odds though. It is better to buy the ships on the Exchange than open lockboxes.