Since everyone likes to fudge around with numbers to justify 1.5 Billion EC, I can play that game too in the opposite direction.
If the odds are 200:1 to get a regular Lockbox Ship and Keys are running 5.2 or so Million EC, then they should be priced around 1 Billion EC. They are not, they are about a quarter of that, more or less.
Moving on to a fixed cost Ship from the Lobi Store. Those cost 900 Lobi. With an average of 5 Lobi per Lockbox that is 180 Lockboxes. Again, at 5.2 Million EC each, that is about 900 Million EC. They don't cost that. They are about 280 Million EC.
Moving on to the Keys vs R&D Promotion Packs. Keys on sale are about 96 Zen, R&D Promos 200. Based upon that ratio, and given 5.2 Million EC, then Promo Packs should have a price about 10.82 Million EC. They are actually running about 17.2 Million EC.
On another track, at 100:1 odds to get the Promo Ship, 100 Promo Packs give you 1,000 Lobi (or 990 if you win the ship). A Lobi Store Ship is 900. So with 1,000 vs 900 and a Lobi Store Ship going for around 285 Million, then using that 1000/900 proportion, the Promo Ship should run around 315 Million EC.
So please stop the BS and all the hype.
'But to be logical is not to be right', and 'nothing' on God's earth could ever 'make it' right!'
Judge Dan Haywood
'As l speak now, the words are forming in my head.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
Comparing lockbox/lobi ships to R&D promos is a mistake. When you open a lockbox you usually get something at least semi-useful as a runner-up prize, unlike R&D boxes. Furthermore R&D promos are for a limited time, so the number of ships available is much lower than a regular box, which drives up the price even further.
Since everyone likes to fudge around with numbers to justify 1.5 Billion EC, I can play that game too in the opposite direction.
If the odds are 200:1 to get a regular Lockbox Ship and Keys are running 5.2 or so Million EC, then they should be priced around 1 Billion EC. They are not, they are about a quarter of that, more or less.
Moving on to a fixed cost Ship from the Lobi Store. Those cost 900 Lobi. With an average of 5 Lobi per Lockbox that is 180 Lockboxes. Again, at 5.2 Million EC each, that is about 900 Million EC. They don't cost that. They are about 280 Million EC.
Thing just is, you're not really taking your argument "in the opposite direction." Rather, you just explained why, indeed, Lobi ships should cost about 900 Million EC. The reason they don't, is because Lobi (professional traders notwithstanding) is, more or less, a 'by-product' of opening a box: a consolation prize, if you will, for not getting the Grande Prize; and the lock box openers can resell the other good stuffz therein.
On another track, at 100:1 odds to get the Promo Ship, 100 Promo Packs give you 1,000 Lobi (or 990 if you win the ship). A Lobi Store Ship is 900. So with 1,000 vs 900 and a Lobi Store Ship going for around 285 Million, then using that 1000/900 proportion, the Promo Ship should run around 315 Million EC.
At 100:1 odds, you'll need 20,000 Zen (ca. 200 bucks). Taking Zen bonuses into account, let's keep it simple, and say you can get 200 lock box keys for that, aka exactly 1.040.000.000 Billion EC. But that was assuming you were guaranteed the promo prize ship. You're not. Only today a well-known lock box opener reported, in channel, he lost ca. 5 Billion EC, the other day, getting zilch. It can happen. So, adding a bit of hype-price inflation to the mix, 1.5 Billion really isn't all that unreasonable. Especially if you consider the materials you get from the R&D packs are pretty much worthless (in relation to what it cost you to get them).
The simplest way to relate the price of promo packs to the price of ships is like this:
Odds of winning 1/100 ->
Average number of packs opened per ship won = 100
100 packs are worth about 1600m EC in the game.
What do you get from 100 packs, on average?
100 RnD boxes
1000 lobi
1 ship
100 RnD Boxes are worth about 200m ec
1000 lobi is worth about 300m ec
Going back to the price of 100 promo packs, we can subtract these two numbers to figure out what the reasonable and fair price for the ship itself is:
1600m - 200m - 300m = 1100m, or 1,100,000,000.
If the ship was worth more than 1.1b, people would be able to 'print money' by opening promo packs in the long term.
If it was worth less than 1.1b, it would be a bad gamble and people would tend to lose money in the long term.
That might be to simple as you need to factor in supply and demand. There are only so many people who want the ship and only a limited amount of people who will find the trait useful. Both the prices of box’s and the ship will slowly drop as demand is filled. Box's have already dropped over1.5mill from peak price as that happens the price of the ship goes down.
You also need to factor in box's opened for free or for cheap so selling for under 1.1billion isn't losing money to them.
The simplest way to relate the price of promo packs to the price of ships is like this:
Odds of winning 1/100 ->
Average number of packs opened per ship won = 100
100 packs are worth about 1600m EC in the game.
What do you get from 100 packs, on average?
100 RnD boxes
1000 lobi
1 ship
100 RnD Boxes are worth about 200m ec
1000 lobi is worth about 300m ec
Going back to the price of 100 promo packs, we can subtract these two numbers to figure out what the reasonable and fair price for the ship itself is:
1600m - 200m - 300m = 1100m, or 1,100,000,000.
If the ship was worth more than 1.1b, people would be able to 'print money' by opening promo packs in the long term.
If it was worth less than 1.1b, it would be a bad gamble and people would tend to lose money in the long term.
That might be to simple as you need to factor in supply and demand. There are only so many people who want the ship and only a limited amount of people who will find the trait useful. Both the prices of box’s and the ship will slowly drop as demand is filled. Box's have already dropped over1.5mill from peak price as that happens the price of the ship goes down.
You also need to factor in box's opened for free or for cheap so selling for under 1.1billion isn't losing money to them.
Promo ship and promo pack prices don't go down in sto long term, they go up. This isn't the first promo ship or the first promo event.
There is no such thing as "boxes opened for free or for cheap."
Welcome to STO, it's a good game I hope you enjoy it!
I opened my box's for free and I have been tracking the prices. Just like all the other events the box's have now fallen by 2 million and the ship has fallen as well. Yes the price will go up again after the event ends but for now as demand drops the price is going down just like all the other promo ship events.
Yes there is opening for cheap. If you spend 50mill on box's and get a ship its still making a large profit at selling under 1 billion. Which is how the ship prices slowly go down as demand fills.
The simplest way to relate the price of promo packs to the price of ships is like this:
Odds of winning 1/100 ->
Average number of packs opened per ship won = 100
100 packs are worth about 1600m EC in the game.
What do you get from 100 packs, on average?
100 RnD boxes
1000 lobi
1 ship
100 RnD Boxes are worth about 200m ec
1000 lobi is worth about 300m ec
Going back to the price of 100 promo packs, we can subtract these two numbers to figure out what the reasonable and fair price for the ship itself is:
1600m - 200m - 300m = 1100m, or 1,100,000,000.
If the ship was worth more than 1.1b, people would be able to 'print money' by opening promo packs in the long term.
If it was worth less than 1.1b, it would be a bad gamble and people would tend to lose money in the long term.
That might be to simple as you need to factor in supply and demand. There are only so many people who want the ship and only a limited amount of people who will find the trait useful. Both the prices of box’s and the ship will slowly drop as demand is filled. Box's have already dropped over1.5mill from peak price as that happens the price of the ship goes down.
You also need to factor in box's opened for free or for cheap so selling for under 1.1billion isn't losing money to them.
Promo ship and promo pack prices don't go down in sto long term, they go up. This isn't the first promo ship or the first promo event.
There is no such thing as "boxes opened for free or for cheap."
Welcome to STO, it's a good game I hope you enjoy it!
I opened my box's for free and I have been tracking the prices. Just like all the other events the box's have now fallen by 2 million and the ship has fallen as well. Yes the price will go up again after the event ends but for now as demand drops the price is going down just like all the other promo ship events.
Yes there is opening for cheap. If you spend 50mill on box's and get a ship its still making a large profit at selling under 1 billion. Which is how the ship prices slowly go down as demand fills.
What does "open boxes for free" even mean? Did you get free promo packs that were bound to character or something?
It means I use the free cstore credit to buy the boxes without spending any real money.
The simplest way to relate the price of promo packs to the price of ships is like this:
Odds of winning 1/100 ->
Average number of packs opened per ship won = 100
100 packs are worth about 1600m EC in the game.
What do you get from 100 packs, on average?
100 RnD boxes
1000 lobi
1 ship
100 RnD Boxes are worth about 200m ec
1000 lobi is worth about 300m ec
Going back to the price of 100 promo packs, we can subtract these two numbers to figure out what the reasonable and fair price for the ship itself is:
1600m - 200m - 300m = 1100m, or 1,100,000,000.
If the ship was worth more than 1.1b, people would be able to 'print money' by opening promo packs in the long term.
If it was worth less than 1.1b, it would be a bad gamble and people would tend to lose money in the long term.
That might be to simple as you need to factor in supply and demand. There are only so many people who want the ship and only a limited amount of people who will find the trait useful. Both the prices of box’s and the ship will slowly drop as demand is filled. Box's have already dropped over1.5mill from peak price as that happens the price of the ship goes down.
You also need to factor in box's opened for free or for cheap so selling for under 1.1billion isn't losing money to them.
Promo ship and promo pack prices don't go down in sto long term, they go up. This isn't the first promo ship or the first promo event.
There is no such thing as "boxes opened for free or for cheap."
Welcome to STO, it's a good game I hope you enjoy it!
I opened my box's for free and I have been tracking the prices. Just like all the other events the box's have now fallen by 2 million and the ship has fallen as well. Yes the price will go up again after the event ends but for now as demand drops the price is going down just like all the other promo ship events.
Yes there is opening for cheap. If you spend 50mill on box's and get a ship its still making a large profit at selling under 1 billion. Which is how the ship prices slowly go down as demand fills.
What does "open boxes for free" even mean? Did you get free promo packs that were bound to character or something?
It means I use the free cstore credit to buy the boxes without spending any real money.
It still costs you like 16m to open them though because of opportunity cost.
If you didn't open them you could sell them one the exchange you see.
Yes but assuming you got lucky at 16million opportunity cost you get a ship then if demand is low as no one wants to buy at 1.1billion you sell at 1billion or less and make a large profit.
What I was trying to get across is you have to factor in supply and demand. The cost of the box’s is only 16million based on demand, as demand has fallen the boxes have gone down in price which in turn lowers the price of the ship.
When I was shopping for my ship no one was able to sell at 1.1billion as supply was high but the ones at 1billion and lower did sell. Also the box’s them self-had fallen under 15million due to supply beating demand. I am sure this will change long term but for the moment prices are falling and the ship isn’t worth 1.1billion. The current value of the ship when I was active earlier today had falling just below 1 billion. Long term I agree with you and the value will increase.
I'm not assuming anything except "you can sell the promo pack instead of open it."
It's a correct assumption btw and opportunity cost is a foundational concept for informed decisions.
Anyway promo packs are a steal at about 15m right now, the 20% discount is still going on them and its the opening weekend!
26th C ones were up to like 19m and will likely go higher if it's a 3-month wait before an infinity promo run!
Opportunity cost is only a guideline like I said before it’s too simple which is why the ship is selling a lot less than your estimate value of the ship. The real value of the ship is under 1 billion as its a rubbish ship.
15m isn’t a steel that’s overpriced so it wouldn’t surprise me to see them drop close to 14million if not below. Opening weekend is normally when the packs are most expensive and once there are over 400 units on the market the normal pattern is for the price to slowly drop.
The 26th boxes where up to 19m as that ship was worth a lot more with a lot more buyers. This ship on the other hand is mostly rubbish apart from the trait and hvy weapon both of which are amazing for Kinetic players. But even those are only worthwhile to a small portion of the player base as kinetic based players are one of the smaller player groups. There are only a limited amount of kinetic based players interested in this ship hence why the price is falling.
“I don't have magic powers that I can use to divine what the 'real value' of things are so I have to muddle along with stuff like evidence. Things like sale prices, buy offers, and expected value. “
Funny you should say that as you seem to be ignoring all the real evidence like sale price, buy offers and expected value. That was my point your method was too simple and skipped out all that real evidence that determines the real value of the ship. Look I am not saying you are wrong, only that you made it to simple and you need to add supply and demand on top of the opportunity cost to get a more accurate real value of the ship. Its no good saying the opportunity cost is x million if there are not enough buyers willing to pay that.
It’s like the main rare lock box ships the odds of getting a ship are the same between most boxes. Keys cost for the most part
around about the same. According to your method related to opportunity cost all main lock box ships are worth the same value. In reality when you use evidence and look at everything else like supply and demand lock box ships range from sub 75 million to 200+ million despite the opportunity cost for all the ships being the same. Hence why I said objective cost is a guideline and to simple by itself. The promo ships are the same even when the opportunity cost of the ships are the same or similar, the real value of the ships can be massively different.
“If you can sell something instead of eat it, it costs you money to eat it instead of sell it. That's what opportunity cost is.”
Just because you can sell 100 boxes for 1.1billion that doesn’t automatically mean the ship is worth 1.1billion or that you can be sure in selling the ship for 1.1billion. That’s why I said you method is too simple and you need to factor in other evidence like supply and demand. Yes you can sell the boxes for 1.1billion but when more people are trying to sell the ship then people buying the ship the ship is worth less. While I have been tracking the ship the average sale has been considering less than the 1.1billion opportunity cost you gave it.
I never trust anyone who says a ship is rubbish. Any ship can do anything in this game & everyone has a different style, so one man's "rubbish" is another man's gold.
While I agree with one man’s rubbish is another’s man’s gold I don’t agree with any ship can do anything in the game. Some ships are worse than other ships for chosen play styles and some playstyles only work on certain ships. The reason many considered this ship rubbish is it’s meant to be geared towards kinetic damage but it has a poor layout and bridge powers for kinetic damage. I didn’t mean to sound like the ship is useless but as a kinetic player the smuggler ship would be very far down my list of good kinetic ships which isn’t really a good thing to say about a ship that’s meant to be kinetic focused.
Due to it being kinetic focus the energy players don't seem that interested in the smuggler ship, and due to the poor kinetic layout the kinetic player don't seem to be that interested. I am sure some players will like the ship and find is useful but as promo ships go it seems to be one of the less popular ones. Speaking for myself I have the ship for the trait and hvy weapon but I have no intention to ever fly the smuggler ship again as the layout of it for my builds is poor.
“I can't follow what you think it has to do with most of the stuff you typed
Perhaps if you spent less time with silly comments like magic or pretending I am a new player and saying welcome to STO you would realise I was just saying to work out the real value of ships and how much they are worth you need to look at more than just opportunity cost but also factor in supply and demand. I was talking about how the ship isn’t worth 1.3 billion and the price will fall which is just what happened.
“its chilling how accurate these insights can be.”
Based on Opportunity cost you valued the smugger ship at 1.3billion saying it was worth that much. I said that was overpriced and it not worth that much and that the price would fall to 1 billion and the promo pack would fall close to 14million. Which is just what happened making my insights correct.
Opportunity cost by itself is not accurate. There are tons of ships with the same opportunity cost but the ships are worth very different amounts. Husnock is worth 280milloin, the NX Escort is worth 175million while the Kelvin Timeline is worth 335 million. All have the same Opportunity cost yet all are worth different amounts.
This is why I said you need another layer on top of opportunity cost to get a more accurate picture of the real value of ships. Opportunity cost is a good guideline but often it’s not enough by itself to give an accurate picture of how much the ship is worth.
Opportunity cost by itself is not accurate. There are tons of ships with the same opportunity cost but the ships are worth very different amounts. Husnock is worth 280milloin, the NX Escort is worth 175million while the Timeline heavy command is worth 335 million. All have the same Opportunity cost yet all are worth different amounts.
That term 'opportunity cost,' I don't think it means what you think it means. Opportunity cost, put simply, is the 'price' you pay for not doing something else. Like slotting a console, which is never just a matter of 'Is this console any good?', but must always be seen in terms of 'What is the opportunity cost of not slotting an other console?!'
Comments
If the odds are 200:1 to get a regular Lockbox Ship and Keys are running 5.2 or so Million EC, then they should be priced around 1 Billion EC. They are not, they are about a quarter of that, more or less.
Moving on to a fixed cost Ship from the Lobi Store. Those cost 900 Lobi. With an average of 5 Lobi per Lockbox that is 180 Lockboxes. Again, at 5.2 Million EC each, that is about 900 Million EC. They don't cost that. They are about 280 Million EC.
Moving on to the Keys vs R&D Promotion Packs. Keys on sale are about 96 Zen, R&D Promos 200. Based upon that ratio, and given 5.2 Million EC, then Promo Packs should have a price about 10.82 Million EC. They are actually running about 17.2 Million EC.
On another track, at 100:1 odds to get the Promo Ship, 100 Promo Packs give you 1,000 Lobi (or 990 if you win the ship). A Lobi Store Ship is 900. So with 1,000 vs 900 and a Lobi Store Ship going for around 285 Million, then using that 1000/900 proportion, the Promo Ship should run around 315 Million EC.
So please stop the BS and all the hype.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
Lady luck didn't smile on me AGAIN. : (
I'm done - Holiday weekend after all.
Them steaks and cheeseburgers aren't going to buy themselves -
Have a great weekend folks ! and to my friends in the US - happy memorial day weekend !
Thing just is, you're not really taking your argument "in the opposite direction." Rather, you just explained why, indeed, Lobi ships should cost about 900 Million EC.
At 100:1 odds, you'll need 20,000 Zen (ca. 200 bucks). Taking Zen bonuses into account, let's keep it simple, and say you can get 200 lock box keys for that, aka exactly 1.040.000.000 Billion EC. But that was assuming you were guaranteed the promo prize ship. You're not. Only today a well-known lock box opener reported, in channel, he lost ca. 5 Billion EC, the other day, getting zilch. It can happen. So, adding a bit of hype-price inflation to the mix, 1.5 Billion really isn't all that unreasonable. Especially if you consider the materials you get from the R&D packs are pretty much worthless (in relation to what it cost you to get them).
You also need to factor in box's opened for free or for cheap so selling for under 1.1billion isn't losing money to them.
I opened my box's for free and I have been tracking the prices. Just like all the other events the box's have now fallen by 2 million and the ship has fallen as well. Yes the price will go up again after the event ends but for now as demand drops the price is going down just like all the other promo ship events.
Yes there is opening for cheap. If you spend 50mill on box's and get a ship its still making a large profit at selling under 1 billion. Which is how the ship prices slowly go down as demand fills.
It means I use the free cstore credit to buy the boxes without spending any real money.
What I was trying to get across is you have to factor in supply and demand. The cost of the box’s is only 16million based on demand, as demand has fallen the boxes have gone down in price which in turn lowers the price of the ship.
When I was shopping for my ship no one was able to sell at 1.1billion as supply was high but the ones at 1billion and lower did sell. Also the box’s them self-had fallen under 15million due to supply beating demand. I am sure this will change long term but for the moment prices are falling and the ship isn’t worth 1.1billion. The current value of the ship when I was active earlier today had falling just below 1 billion. Long term I agree with you and the value will increase.
15m isn’t a steel that’s overpriced so it wouldn’t surprise me to see them drop close to 14million if not below. Opening weekend is normally when the packs are most expensive and once there are over 400 units on the market the normal pattern is for the price to slowly drop.
The 26th boxes where up to 19m as that ship was worth a lot more with a lot more buyers. This ship on the other hand is mostly rubbish apart from the trait and hvy weapon both of which are amazing for Kinetic players. But even those are only worthwhile to a small portion of the player base as kinetic based players are one of the smaller player groups. There are only a limited amount of kinetic based players interested in this ship hence why the price is falling.
It’s like the main rare lock box ships the odds of getting a ship are the same between most boxes. Keys cost for the most part
around about the same. According to your method related to opportunity cost all main lock box ships are worth the same value. In reality when you use evidence and look at everything else like supply and demand lock box ships range from sub 75 million to 200+ million despite the opportunity cost for all the ships being the same. Hence why I said objective cost is a guideline and to simple by itself. The promo ships are the same even when the opportunity cost of the ships are the same or similar, the real value of the ships can be massively different.
Just because you can sell 100 boxes for 1.1billion that doesn’t automatically mean the ship is worth 1.1billion or that you can be sure in selling the ship for 1.1billion. That’s why I said you method is too simple and you need to factor in other evidence like supply and demand. Yes you can sell the boxes for 1.1billion but when more people are trying to sell the ship then people buying the ship the ship is worth less. While I have been tracking the ship the average sale has been considering less than the 1.1billion opportunity cost you gave it.
Due to it being kinetic focus the energy players don't seem that interested in the smuggler ship, and due to the poor kinetic layout the kinetic player don't seem to be that interested. I am sure some players will like the ship and find is useful but as promo ships go it seems to be one of the less popular ones. Speaking for myself I have the ship for the trait and hvy weapon but I have no intention to ever fly the smuggler ship again as the layout of it for my builds is poor.
Based on Opportunity cost you valued the smugger ship at 1.3billion saying it was worth that much. I said that was overpriced and it not worth that much and that the price would fall to 1 billion and the promo pack would fall close to 14million. Which is just what happened making my insights correct.
Opportunity cost by itself is not accurate. There are tons of ships with the same opportunity cost but the ships are worth very different amounts. Husnock is worth 280milloin, the NX Escort is worth 175million while the Kelvin Timeline is worth 335 million. All have the same Opportunity cost yet all are worth different amounts.
This is why I said you need another layer on top of opportunity cost to get a more accurate picture of the real value of ships. Opportunity cost is a good guideline but often it’s not enough by itself to give an accurate picture of how much the ship is worth.
That term 'opportunity cost,' I don't think it means what you think it means. Opportunity cost, put simply, is the 'price' you pay for not doing something else. Like slotting a console, which is never just a matter of 'Is this console any good?', but must always be seen in terms of 'What is the opportunity cost of not slotting an other console?!'