When I first tried out lock boxes I bought 50 and was disappointed when I didn't get the prize ship. I didn't understand the odds at that time, when I tried a second time with another lock box, I bought 130 keys. I figured this would better my chances and I still didn't get a ship. I realized the difficulty of getting the prize ship. I read on forums about people who spent 300 plus and not receiving the prize ship so I never messed with lock boxes again until the kelvin lock box. I really wanted to get the constitution t6. I already had around 500 lobi so I figured I'd get more to buy the vengeance, costume pack and the Boolean canon. After opening 60 lock boxes I kind of came to the realization that I may not get this ship, but after the 68th lock box I got one, I got a second one when I was past my 80th lock box. I was super happy to win two, felt super lucky. I now have a character with the vengeance and two with the constitution. I still can't believe I won two. Now I don't know what to think about the odds
The 0.5% chance for a lockbox ship to drop are public knowledge. That's a 1 in 200 chance. You may complain about having no luck when you've opened 400 lockboxes, not before. If you cannot deal with losing money on a lottery, don't play the lottery.
The 0.5% chance for a lockbox ship to drop are public knowledge. That's a 1 in 200 chance. You may complain about having no luck when you've opened 400 lockboxes, not before. If you cannot deal with losing money on a lottery, don't play the lottery.
^ This. A gamble is a gamble, OP. Forget about odds and probabilities. You can get a ultra-rare ship on your first lockbox, or not a single one on 200 of them.
The approximate odds of getting the "grand prize" from a lockbox have been known for quite a while now; it's easy enough to find this out - a search on the forums will do it.
Knowing this, you can figure out what your chances are of getting the prize from a set number of keys. You can decide for yourself whether you think it's worth the money.
If I'm opening boxes, I try to think of it as doing it for the Lobi - anything else is a bonus. I have, on occasion, been very lucky and got some pretty nice bonuses. Most of the time, I haven't been. I have no grounds for complaint - I knew the odds going in.
"Ignore the boxes and buy stuff off the Exchange" has one problem, as a strategy - if everyone does it, nobody is opening the boxes, so nobody has any stuff to put on the Exchange. If you want the stuff, someone's got to open a box to get it. (I might add that the lockboxes are a revenue stream for Cryptic, and they need revenue streams if they are going to keep the bills paid and the servers running.)
Basically, this is how the system works... offering odds that are just the right side of impossible, so that enough people will spend real money to take the chance. If anyone has better ideas about how to do this - while still providing the same revenue stream that the game needs, if it's going to keep going - I'm sure we'd all love to hear them.
for me, it's too little, too late. JJ left a horrible flavor in this girl's mouth.
On for topic, I only had 1 lockbox every give me something good, it was a Tholian orbweaver, about 2 years ago. I don't bother with boxes anymore, only if I want a few lobbirocks.
I got the AoY bundle, and I am quite pleased with that, so it's good.
i'm at 145 boxes open and i havent even gotten good sell off loot. the doff packs are selling off, but i'd have rather have gotten at least 1 ship.
See, that to me seems nuts.
To just keep opening box after box like that, at roughly $1 per key? That's crazy.
I get the thought that you want the ship, but at current Key Prices (5.8M) you could have sold 86 of those keys and just bought the ship with EC.
Makes sense to me that before you start, you determine the maximum number of keys you're willing to spend. If you know you will go up to 145, and it's 86 keys to buy it outright, then open 59 boxes, stop and sell the rest of the keys. If you get lucky in the 59.. great, if not at least you still get the ship.
I couldn't just sit there using Key after key almost 150 times, maybe that's just me. I could never spend that much knowing there is a pretty good chance I still won't even get what I want.
I wrestled for 2 days with the idea of spending $20 on keys to make up the rest of the EC I needed for the Vengeance. Though I will say.. that was money well spent.
Unless you're ridiculously lucky you won't get a ship after 200 boxes.
I am ridiculously lucky . All three KT ships in under 160 keys. The first after only 7 keys.
((shrug)) then again I also pulled an Annorax on my third try. If you want to do the whole "flagged for luck" conspiracy, my account is the poster child.
To the OP - I hope you get some pleasure out of the other contents: the consoles, trait packs, weapons, and Doffs can all be really good .
LockBoxes are a chance item. You know the odds before you commit to opening one. It is not Cryptic's fault you did not get the shiny you preferred. You still got some shinys which a lot of other players do not have. Complaining publicly about LockBoxes after you spend the money is silly. You knowingly made a choice prior to spending any money. This choice encounters some very long odds against you. Why are you surprised when you did not "win" on the very first try?
Random chance only favors some of the people in the player pool. Not all of them. Some of these 'lucky' people remember the circumstances under which they achieved a successful result and make efforts to recreate those circumstances. Which reduces the odds against these people by some amount. But it does not eliminate them.
I have been fortunate a few times with the LockBoxes and gotten something I really wanted. But I do not open LockBoxes unless I have established a spending limit beyond which I will not go and I have spare currency, of any type, which I do not need to commit to anything else.
A six year old boy and his starship. Living the dream.
> @jorantomalak said: > meimeitoo wrote: » > > guardianhope wrote: » > > Wow, what a waste... this has put a bad taste on the new season for me. Why not just sell the bloody ships in the C-Store? > > > > > Because ppl are willing to open hundreds of lockboxes instead, is why. > > > > > > This is the reason for lock boxes , because people are just so naive to throw tons of cash in the hopes of winning the ship, but the only winner is cryptic because they are tossing loads of bucks at it. > > so meimetoo speaks truely and wisely
No it's because people love gambling. Same reason they buy lottery tickets and sit in front of slot machines for hours feeding the one arm bandits.
If i want the ships i will grind the ec for them , thas if they ever go to the exchange so far i havent even seen the KT rom or the KT klingons ship, let alon the connie or vengeance on the exchange.
Be sure to search with their names:
Kelvin Timeline Intel Dreadnought Cruiser
D4x
T'laru
Kelvin Timeline Heavy Command Cruiser
Granted the D4x & T'laru have been in constant low supply. I really don't know why more don't open the boxes on a KDF since selling one D4x at going rates will let you almost buy the 2 Fed ships outside of ending up with KDF trait boxes and possibly KDF doffs instead of Fed ones and maybe other KDF-only things that I'm not aware of.
My only explanation is KDF population is very low (as Devs have mentioned already), combined with the recent 'boxit' infinity box meaning many have already used up significant sums playing that (and profiting well I am sure).
These are rip off odds, seriously the prize isn't even something that's physical and of limited supply, its something they can make unlimited copies of.
Think on this, I just spent $20 (already had roughly 15 zen by selling dilithium) and got the Chronos.
No banging my head against the wall in frustratiom, no spending a massive sum of money gambling and getting nothing out of it, ect...
The lockbox scam is exploiting those with a gambling addiction, its predatory, and wrong.
These are rip off odds, seriously the prize isn't even something that's physical and of limited supply, its something they can make unlimited copies of.
Think on this, I just spent $20 (already had roughly 15 zen by selling dilithium) and got the Chronos.
No banging my head against the wall in frustratiom, no spending a massive sum of money gambling and getting nothing out of it, ect...
The lockbox scam is exploiting those with a gambling addiction, its predatory, and wrong.
no one is exploiting anyone because you can buy the ship for a fixed price, no gambling involved.
buy master keys. sell master keys on the exchange. then buy ship off the exchange for a set price.
right now the ships are 480 mil on the exchange.
480(ship price) / 5.5(key selling price) = 87(the amount of keys you need to buy/sell)
so you can buy the ship off the exchange for $87, no gambling involved.
if people are too dumb to figure that out it isnt cryptic fault
if everybody did that, there would none of these ships on the exchange in the first place, that system only works if someone acts like a sucker in the first place.
The number of people actually defending the lockbox scam is absurd.
"So you walk eternally through the shadow realms, standing against evil where all others falter. May your thirst for retribution never quench, may the blood on your sword never dry, and may we never need you again."
-Dedication plaque of the Federation Starship U.S.S. Merkava
The number of people actually defending the lockbox scam is absurd.
Because some people understand the odds before they lay out a single dollar?
Seriously, what's your complaint beyond 'whaaa, I want it'? If risk scares you, go buy some keys and sell them for Ec. If you're (^%*ing BLIND to the rest of the contents in the box, then you should definitely take the risk-adverse path.
you wanted the ship you wanted the lobi and you wanted the material's ... most importantly you wanted to follow the 62. rule The riskier the road, the greater the profit.
You sir are a true Ferengi. Just keep navigating your ship with skill and grace through the mighty river's of the great material continuum and you will reach The Divine Treasury. Where you will bid for your new live ...
Never consider going to The Vault of Eternal Destitution because as long as you follow the rules in your heart you can still show profit ... :rolleyes::eek::D
If i want the ships i will grind the ec for them , thas if they ever go to the exchange so far i havent even seen the KT rom or the KT klingons ship, let alon the connie or vengeance on the exchange.
Be sure to search with their names:
Kelvin Timeline Intel Dreadnought Cruiser
D4x
T'laru
Kelvin Timeline Heavy Command Cruiser
Granted the D4x & T'laru have been in constant low supply. I really don't know why more don't open the boxes on a KDF since selling one D4x at going rates will let you almost buy the 2 Fed ships outside of ending up with KDF trait boxes and possibly KDF doffs instead of Fed ones and maybe other KDF-only things that I'm not aware of.
My only explanation is KDF population is very low (as Devs have mentioned already), combined with the recent 'boxit' infinity box meaning many have already used up significant sums playing that (and profiting well I am sure).
don't forget the lock box ships are the only ships kdf and roms are getting that aren't fed ships sold as cross faction. so just about everyone even those who normally ignore lockbox ships wants them. so most are only selling extras add in people with alot of alts. the supply becomes nearly nonexistent.
if I stop posting it doesn't make you right it. just means I don't have enough rum to continue interacting with you.
i'm at 145 boxes open and i havent even gotten good sell off loot. the doff packs are selling off, but i'd have rather have gotten at least 1 ship.
Would have been better off to just sell the keys and get both new ships. Just a thought...
At roughly 5.5 million per key that is around 797 million EC at 145 keys. Plenty enough to get the JJ prise and the Vengeance and be left with over 100 million EC's. hmm...
The number of people actually defending the lockbox scam is absurd.
Because some people understand the odds before they lay out a single dollar?
Seriously, what's your complaint beyond 'whaaa, I want it'? If risk scares you, go buy some keys and sell them for Ec. If you're (^%*ing BLIND to the rest of the contents in the box, then you should definitely take the risk-adverse path.
Has nothing to do with whining or risk. I open a few boxes, whichever ones I have on hand, whenever I buy Zen. Just to see what I get with a roll of the dice.
In the case the Kelvin box though, PWE knew full damned well how desired the Connie would be, and deliberately put it behind the gambling wall so they could sell more keys. Call me oldschool, but I firmly hold that content in games should be accessible, and enable a game to be sold and thrive on it's own merits.
"So you walk eternally through the shadow realms, standing against evil where all others falter. May your thirst for retribution never quench, may the blood on your sword never dry, and may we never need you again."
-Dedication plaque of the Federation Starship U.S.S. Merkava
Comments
^ This. A gamble is a gamble, OP. Forget about odds and probabilities. You can get a ultra-rare ship on your first lockbox, or not a single one on 200 of them.
Knowing this, you can figure out what your chances are of getting the prize from a set number of keys. You can decide for yourself whether you think it's worth the money.
If I'm opening boxes, I try to think of it as doing it for the Lobi - anything else is a bonus. I have, on occasion, been very lucky and got some pretty nice bonuses. Most of the time, I haven't been. I have no grounds for complaint - I knew the odds going in.
"Ignore the boxes and buy stuff off the Exchange" has one problem, as a strategy - if everyone does it, nobody is opening the boxes, so nobody has any stuff to put on the Exchange. If you want the stuff, someone's got to open a box to get it. (I might add that the lockboxes are a revenue stream for Cryptic, and they need revenue streams if they are going to keep the bills paid and the servers running.)
Basically, this is how the system works... offering odds that are just the right side of impossible, so that enough people will spend real money to take the chance. If anyone has better ideas about how to do this - while still providing the same revenue stream that the game needs, if it's going to keep going - I'm sure we'd all love to hear them.
for me, it's too little, too late. JJ left a horrible flavor in this girl's mouth.
On for topic, I only had 1 lockbox every give me something good, it was a Tholian orbweaver, about 2 years ago. I don't bother with boxes anymore, only if I want a few lobbirocks.
I got the AoY bundle, and I am quite pleased with that, so it's good.
See, that to me seems nuts.
To just keep opening box after box like that, at roughly $1 per key? That's crazy.
I get the thought that you want the ship, but at current Key Prices (5.8M) you could have sold 86 of those keys and just bought the ship with EC.
Makes sense to me that before you start, you determine the maximum number of keys you're willing to spend. If you know you will go up to 145, and it's 86 keys to buy it outright, then open 59 boxes, stop and sell the rest of the keys. If you get lucky in the 59.. great, if not at least you still get the ship.
I couldn't just sit there using Key after key almost 150 times, maybe that's just me. I could never spend that much knowing there is a pretty good chance I still won't even get what I want.
I wrestled for 2 days with the idea of spending $20 on keys to make up the rest of the EC I needed for the Vengeance. Though I will say.. that was money well spent.
I am ridiculously lucky
((shrug)) then again I also pulled an Annorax on my third try. If you want to do the whole "flagged for luck" conspiracy, my account is the poster child.
To the OP - I hope you get some pleasure out of the other contents: the consoles, trait packs, weapons, and Doffs can all be really good
Random chance only favors some of the people in the player pool. Not all of them. Some of these 'lucky' people remember the circumstances under which they achieved a successful result and make efforts to recreate those circumstances. Which reduces the odds against these people by some amount. But it does not eliminate them.
I have been fortunate a few times with the LockBoxes and gotten something I really wanted. But I do not open LockBoxes unless I have established a spending limit beyond which I will not go and I have spare currency, of any type, which I do not need to commit to anything else.
> meimeitoo wrote: »
>
> guardianhope wrote: »
>
> Wow, what a waste... this has put a bad taste on the new season for me. Why not just sell the bloody ships in the C-Store?
>
>
>
>
> Because ppl are willing to open hundreds of lockboxes instead, is why.
>
>
>
>
>
> This is the reason for lock boxes , because people are just so naive to throw tons of cash in the hopes of winning the ship, but the only winner is cryptic because they are tossing loads of bucks at it.
>
> so meimetoo speaks truely and wisely
No it's because people love gambling. Same reason they buy lottery tickets and sit in front of slot machines for hours feeding the one arm bandits.
Which doesn't invalidate my "Because ppl are willing to open hundreds of lockboxes instead, is why" comment at all: it just explains the why.
Be sure to search with their names:
Kelvin Timeline Intel Dreadnought Cruiser
D4x
T'laru
Kelvin Timeline Heavy Command Cruiser
Granted the D4x & T'laru have been in constant low supply. I really don't know why more don't open the boxes on a KDF since selling one D4x at going rates will let you almost buy the 2 Fed ships outside of ending up with KDF trait boxes and possibly KDF doffs instead of Fed ones and maybe other KDF-only things that I'm not aware of.
My only explanation is KDF population is very low (as Devs have mentioned already), combined with the recent 'boxit' infinity box meaning many have already used up significant sums playing that (and profiting well I am sure).
These are rip off odds, seriously the prize isn't even something that's physical and of limited supply, its something they can make unlimited copies of.
Think on this, I just spent $20 (already had roughly 15 zen by selling dilithium) and got the Chronos.
No banging my head against the wall in frustratiom, no spending a massive sum of money gambling and getting nothing out of it, ect...
The lockbox scam is exploiting those with a gambling addiction, its predatory, and wrong.
no one is exploiting anyone because you can buy the ship for a fixed price, no gambling involved.
buy master keys. sell master keys on the exchange. then buy ship off the exchange for a set price.
right now the ships are 480 mil on the exchange.
480(ship price) / 5.5(key selling price) = 87(the amount of keys you need to buy/sell)
so you can buy the ship off the exchange for $87, no gambling involved.
if people are too dumb to figure that out it isnt cryptic fault
I'm not interested in either one of them, myself.
-Dedication plaque of the Federation Starship U.S.S. Merkava
Seriously, what's your complaint beyond 'whaaa, I want it'? If risk scares you, go buy some keys and sell them for Ec. If you're (^%*ing BLIND to the rest of the contents in the box, then you should definitely take the risk-adverse path.
you wanted the ship you wanted the lobi and you wanted the material's ... most importantly you wanted to follow the 62. rule The riskier the road, the greater the profit.
You sir are a true Ferengi. Just keep navigating your ship with skill and grace through the mighty river's of the great material continuum and you will reach The Divine Treasury. Where you will bid for your new live ...
Never consider going to The Vault of Eternal Destitution because as long as you follow the rules in your heart you can still show profit ... :rolleyes::eek::D
don't forget the lock box ships are the only ships kdf and roms are getting that aren't fed ships sold as cross faction. so just about everyone even those who normally ignore lockbox ships wants them. so most are only selling extras add in people with alot of alts. the supply becomes nearly nonexistent.
if I stop posting it doesn't make you right it. just means I don't have enough rum to continue interacting with you.
Would have been better off to just sell the keys and get both new ships. Just a thought...
At roughly 5.5 million per key that is around 797 million EC at 145 keys. Plenty enough to get the JJ prise and the Vengeance and be left with over 100 million EC's. hmm...
Has nothing to do with whining or risk. I open a few boxes, whichever ones I have on hand, whenever I buy Zen. Just to see what I get with a roll of the dice.
In the case the Kelvin box though, PWE knew full damned well how desired the Connie would be, and deliberately put it behind the gambling wall so they could sell more keys. Call me oldschool, but I firmly hold that content in games should be accessible, and enable a game to be sold and thrive on it's own merits.
-Dedication plaque of the Federation Starship U.S.S. Merkava